Anything with 16 threads should last 10 years, at least being awesome at first then over time being passed around some friends and family perhaps like i always do with my upgrades. Will certainly be outdated but 16 threads and 16gb of ram is gonna be all you prob will ever need for a browser/htpc box.
Except: what if cores become much faster - either by getting much higher frequencies (kind of in development) or higher IPC / new instruction sets (kind of certain)?
I mean: what if in 2025 we start to get cores twice as fast as what we use today. Or 3-4 times as fast near the end of the decade?
Software will evolve to utilize the new single-thread potential and suddenly you'll end up with a CPU that looks great in rendering benchmarks, but for some weird reason seems less responsive than a modern mobile SoC.
Seriously, don't plan to use a CPU bought today for the next 10 years. Not with all the tech that we might see in this decade.
Your argument was that the i9-9900 managing 10c at 2.8 GHz "wasn't that bad". It is that bad. The competition has 16c products able to run within the same power budget at the same clock speeds with better IPC, and 12c products that can run at significantly higher speeds with better IPC. Even look at the 8c parts. Intel's 65w 8c parts have a 2.9GHz base clock. AMD's 8c 65w part has a 3.6Ghz clock. Stock-for-stock, the 3700X will deliver significantly higher sustained throughput with the factory HSF.
I absolutely haven't said Intel's desktop products match AMD desktop products today. They can't. Fab node advantage is too significant.
What I meant is: 9900 is a good CPU. And it is. Maybe not for "sustained throughput", but it'll likely do well in real life: with a lot low-thread software being used.
But of course there are limits to what clever engineering and well tuned boosts can give you. And Ryzens' raw density advantage will prevail in things like rendering or batch processing. No way around it.
I never said you CAN'T use those chips for general computing, but they are a waste. Most people don't buy 8-core i9 CPUs solely for web browsing. They'll get mainstream i5 and i7 parts.
I've already admitted that mentioning web browsing was a mistake and it derailed this discussion. Don't think about it. A big chunk of consumers edits photo/video, transcodes videos, learns data analysis and so on. And that's just on the consumer side of story, which is the minor target market for these desktop CPUs (at least for Intel).
Thats a way to look at it. But when you can buy the same power for the same price(and thats giving comet lake the benefit of the doubt before benchmarks and retail prices), but one uses twice the power, it makes no sense to buy it. Hence my conclusion.
Well, there are a few reasons why this buy makes sense. Some are obvious: IGP and other technicalities, better support in software etc. Some consumers will find something that they value more than performance or efficiency. And for some AMD will simply not be an option right now (I'm in that group albeit maybe just for few more months).
But the key reason is: supply. You forget how much CPUs are being sold globally. AMD just can't make that many.
Intel knows that. So once the first wave of DIY buyers swallow all the supply of fast, efficient Zen2 SoCs, Intel can sell their slower, more expensive products to the rest. In the same way you go to a grocery store after work and have to buy a slightly beaten, ugly fruits - knowing that someone who gets up early took all the nice ones and paid the same price.
As AMD gets more of TSMC wafers, Intel will have to become more competitive. For now they still can ask as much as they ask. And that's why their profit margin is higher than AMD's.
To put it simply: humanity needs to buy 500 mln x86 processors in 2020 and Intel is the only company that can make 400 mln of those.
So there is some competition (especially since AMD is active in the most lucrative markets: DIY desktops and servers), but for the most part Intel remains a monopolist.
That's worth remembering for the next time you see someone saying that "Intel made a mistake by keeping foundries", "no one will buy from Intel at these prices" or "OEMs are biased and don't buy from AMD".