Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

[Joe NYC]

This is apparently the current plan that TSMC is proposing to Trump admin, which probably satisfies:
- TSMC
- TSMC customers (Apple, NVidia, AMD, Qualcomm)
- Trump administration

But it leaves Intel out in the cold. So it will be an uphill battle for Intel to try to stay relevant (and afloat).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1890263769894494663

 

[jdubs03]

There are other options, it could be a consortium with major US silicon designers and "whales" (google, amazon, etc) with some initial government backing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863896460716347613

A much better alternative.

Under TSMC it will also gonna be gutted, restructured and most fabs closed off.

This is the likeliest outcome if Intel cannot sustain itself for much longer.

But count me as more optimistic than many here. 18A is on the level of TSMC N2, and there will be products in customer hands half a year before any N2 products are (my guess would be the M6 iPad Pro in spring 2026 at the earliest). Sure switching costs will be an obstacle to overcome, but Intel will soon be at the cutting edge once again.
I feel like that is being underestimated.

Perhaps if the next-gen Apple processors this year were on N2 I’d feel differently.

If I’m wrong, then I hope it’s a consortium of many, and 18A/14A lives on. It should if it’s at the appropriate level.

 

[coercitiv]

I ignored the TSMC news bit initially, but is see WSJ has picked it up as well.

Archive link.

Intel’s rivals Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Broadcom are each eyeing potential deals that would break the American chip-making icon in two.

Broadcom has been closely examining Intel’s chip-design and marketing business, according to people familiar with the matter. It has informally discussed with its advisers making a bid but would likely only do so if it finds a partner for Intel’s manufacturing business, the people said.
Nothing has been submitted to Intel, the people cautioned, and Broadcom could decide not to seek a deal.

Separately, TSMC has studied controlling some or all of Intel’s chip plants, potentially as part of an investor consortium or other structure, according to people familiar with the discussions.

It seems to me that even though the U.S. would rather not include TSMC in such a deal (for obvious reasons), nobody is willing to pickup the tab and the risk for the fabs. The seemingly viable format is to involve TSMC in a deal that would guarantee IFS results.

 

[marees]

I ignored the TSMC news bit initially, but is see WSJ has picked it up as well.

Archive link.




It seems to me that even though the U.S. would rather not include TSMC in such a deal (for obvious reasons), nobody is willing to pickup the tab and the risk for the fabs. The seemingly viable format is to involve TSMC in a deal that would guarantee IFS results.

X86 only fab has no future

Need GPUs on 18A for success. TSMC expertise would be necessary for this.

 

[DZero]

x86 has its days numbered... is sad that Intel didn't pull the necessary measures to avoid that scenario

 

[igor_kavinski]

They disavow a certain country and pull out immediately and they may return to form miraculously. Nothing murderous goes unpunished and they have been in bed with the Devil too long and it's eating them alive.

 

[marees]

Broadcom eyes Intel’s chip design unit as TSMC considers its factories​

The potential deals could dismantle Intel’s long-standing integrated model, reshaping the semiconductor industry.​

The American chip giant Broadcom is considering acquiring Intel's chip design and marketing operations, according to The Wall Street Journal. If confirmed, along with reports of a possible sale of Intel's manufacturing division to Taiwan's TSMC, these moves could mark the end of Intel as a fully integrated semiconductor company.
Is Intel’s time up? TSMC and Broadcom move in as the chipmaker falters
Intel’s existential crisis: Can Broadcom, TSMC, and Trump save the troubled chip giant?
Over the weekend, reports emerged that Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC is in talks to acquire Intel's manufacturing division, with the knowledge and support of senior officials in the Trump administration. Now, The Wall Street Journal reports that Broadcom is also interested in acquiring part of Intel. According to the report, the American chip developer is exploring the possibility of purchasing Intel’s chip design and marketing businesses and has held informal discussions with its advisors about submitting an offer. However, Broadcom is not expected to proceed unless it finds a partner willing to acquire Intel's chip manufacturing operations.



At this stage, no formal offer has been made to Intel. Broadcom and TSMC are not working together, and discussions on both potential deals remain preliminary and largely unofficial. However, if these moves materialize, they could lead to the breakup of Intel—one of the world’s most influential technology companies, which for decades shaped not only the semiconductor industry but also the development of personal computing.
Another possible scenario is that Intel sells only one of its divisions—either manufacturing or design—while continuing to operate in a more focused capacity. In that case, Intel would resemble modern semiconductor companies such as Nvidia and TSMC, which specialize in either chip development or manufacturing rather than maintaining both capabilities. This would mark a major shift from Intel’s traditional model as a vertically integrated chip giant, a position it has held since its founding.
Related articles:

• Can TSMC save Intel? A potential takeover could reshape the chip industry
• Intel in talks to sell chip manufacturing to TSMC
• Intel shares soar on AI and foundry ambitions—but can it deliver?

Intel's interim executive chairman, Frank Yeary, has been leading the discussions with possible suitors and Trump administration officials, who are concerned about the fate of a company seen as critical to national security, the report said.


https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/rkbq1fkqkl

 

[DrMrLordX]

Broadcom has been floated as a potential suitor before. The cross-licensing deal with AMD still makes it very difficult.

 

[igor_kavinski]

The cross-licensing deal with AMD still makes it very difficult.

Maybe they take all of Intel's existing patents and create a whole new architecture with a different ISA. They have the money to try to do that. It's possible that they are impressed by Qualcomm's approach and think that an x86 emulator could enable them to ease the transition for existing x86 users. It may then leave AMD as the sole provider for the x86 DIY community though and who knows how long that will last so personally, I hope Broadcom stays the heck away from Intel.

 

[Markfw]

Regardless. It seems like the end of Intel being the "chip giant". AMD is already selling more server CPUs and desktop is coming. Laptop ?? Not sure.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Laptop ?? Not sure.

Lunar Lake is decent but not enough supply. Panther Lake may fix that. Meteor Lake? Annoyingly it seems to be a success judging by the number of laptop models I see every time I'm casually looking at laptop prices. This is Intel for you. Their turds (Raptor/Meteor Lake) turn out to be market successes because they can flood the market with options and lower prices.

 

[Joe NYC]

Maybe they take all of Intel's existing patents and create a whole new architecture with a different ISA.

By that, do you mean going on a 2-4 year long side quest, while the house is on fire?

 

[igor_kavinski]

By that, do you mean going on a 2-4 year long side quest, while the house is on fire?

Yeah. They have the money for something like that. In the process, they will reduce Intel to a skeleton crew of only the most essential people needed for the job. That's why this shouldn't happen. HR and managers are notoriously stupid when it comes to figuring out who is essential and end up firing a lot of important staff who talk less and do more.

 

[Joe NYC]

Lunar Lake is decent but not enough supply. Panther Lake may fix that. Meteor Lake? Annoyingly it seems to be a success judging by the number of laptop models I see every time I'm casually looking at laptop prices. This is Intel for you. Their turds (Raptor/Meteor Lake) turn out to be market successes because they can flood the market with options and lower prices.

In the past, Intel was in a position profit from selling more chips at cheaper price, if there was space (capacity) in its fabs.

That is no longer the case, and now, with LNL, MTL, ARL, Intel is a high cost producer, and there is no benefit (from unit cost perspective) in increasing volume by lowering prices. Intel has very little flexibility in pricing, and lacking this flexibility, Intel has less power over the OEMs.

 

[DavidC1]

It may then leave AMD as the sole provider for the x86 DIY community though and who knows how long that will last so personally, I hope Broadcom stays the heck away from Intel.

This is just going to lead to an uncompetitive chip and end up dying anyway, with the leftover patents, technology, and employees discarded.

Yea, I cannot see this going anywhere. I can't see how splitting up a company that achieved success through tight integration is suddenly going to be able to turn on a dime and work separately.

More than likely this will be the complete end of whatever was formerly called Intel, akin to Nortel Networks, where bunch of mega corps fought over patents.

The real question is how far reaching the consequences will be. Will it be end of x86? Or something even bigger such as the beginning of the end of America's only lead in tech leadership, which is semiconductors? One could say it wasn't an entirely surprising result when we know that China has 10x the startups and tech graduates compared to the US despite only having a less than 4x population difference. And something that may already be coming to reality with things like DeepSeek.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Will it be end of x86?

Nah. AMD will carry the torch, at least as long as there are software users and vendors dependent on x86.

 

[DavidC1]

Nah. AMD will carry the torch, at least as long as there are software users and vendors dependent on x86.

Yes, it won't happen right away but without a significant departure they will, because Intel worked so much to keep the ecosystem alive. They have provided countless reference form factors which many startups just rebranded them as their own, before eventually innovating with their own design. IO standards such as USB, PCI Express, Connectors, are all their work.

One handheld vendor when interviewed on why they decided on Intel said that compared to AMD, they provided a ton of near step-by-step support, which was necessary to get their product into the market. If AMD wants to continue carrying on the x86 torch, they must replace most of what Intel did at peak.

Many widely used apps out there that are transitioning away from PCs completely, like not available or a poor shadow of it. It'll hurt some markets, but it'll happen.

 

[Doug S]

This is another one of these "huge number of parties have to all agree" that might sound good on paper but there's a lot of potential sticking points. For a deal where Intel is split up and Broadcom gets the design side and TSMC gets the fabs the following likely have to occur:

1) it is at a price both Broadcom and TSMC find acceptable, but is high enough that Intel shareholders will approve it (something like this is probably gonna need to price Intel at around $35/share)

2) AMD approves the transfer of Intel's x86 license to Broadcom (at least I've been lead to believe this is necessary as part of Intel & AMD's various deals over the past couple decades)

3) TSMC can somehow be assured the Chips Act funding Intel has been allocated will be honored. Given that Trump thinks it is fine for Musk to go wrecking ball through the government and break existing contracts if I were them I'd want the money up front so there isn't any way it can be clawed back or Trump gives them a Ukraine like "I need you to do me a favor though" trying to add additional conditions before the money is disbursed.

4) TSMC can get approval from its board and Taiwan's government to allow construction of leading edge fabs in the US. It ain't gonna happen if TSMC keeps the same policy of only allowing N+1 fabs outside of Taiwan.

5) TSMC's big customers like Apple and Qualcomm have to buy into this, and not feel like this will be a distraction that slows the roadmap or increases prices - in particular if there was say a big tariff slapped on Taiwan imports then TSMC might raise the price of US made chips because they can. We would effectively be creating a worldwide monopoly, after all.

If Intel "needed" rescue (and that isn't completely clear yet) I'd rather see some sort of JV between Intel, Samsung and GF to create a viable competitor to TSMC, rather than just decide they are going to be the only leading edge foundry in the world from now on. Yeah yeah "Samsung", wake me when they get their first EUV process with decent yields...

 

[Joe NYC]

A merger / acquisition of this scope would likely also need approval of China, which is not going to happen while the US is sanctioning China.

If they try to go ahead without approval of China, then China can limit ability of Broadcom to sell products in China.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Yes, it won't happen right away but without a significant departure they will, because Intel worked so much to keep the ecosystem alive. They have provided countless reference form factors which many startups just rebranded them as their own, before eventually innovating with their own design. IO standards such as USB, PCI Express, Connectors, are all their work.

One handheld vendor when interviewed on why they decided on Intel said that compared to AMD, they provided a ton of near step-by-step support, which was necessary to get their product into the market. If AMD wants to continue carrying on the x86 torch, they must replace most of what Intel did at peak.

Many widely used apps out there that are transitioning away from PCs completely, like not available or a poor shadow of it. It'll hurt some markets, but it'll happen.

None of that has anything to do with x86. AMD could become an ARM vendor and still not do any of those things.

 

[DZero]

None of that has anything to do with x86. AMD could become an ARM vendor and still not do any of those things.

That would leave Apple and Qualcomm as the biggest winners.

 

[poke01]

Closing off x86 was the biggest mistake ever. greed always fails

 

[igor_kavinski]

Closing off x86 was the biggest mistake ever. greed always fails

Heh. Intel could always become like ARM.

 

[marees]

In a new report from UDN, we're hearing that the supply chain and foreign media are reporting that the main goal of the Trump administration is to increase Intel's wafer manufacturing capacity through TSMC in order to strengthen "Made in America" from President Trump.

The US hopes to see TSMC holding a 20% stake in IFS (Intel Foundry Services) through a technology valuation or an actual cash investment.

details regarding the form of investment and related amounts have not been finalized.

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/1033...ith-qualcomm-and-broadcom-chipping/index.html


Sources indicate that Broadcom has been closely assessing Intel’s chip design and marketing businesses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1891258388702740689

 

[Thibsie]

On any case, if Broadcom would take Intel design, Broadcom needs to get x86 license and continue developing it.
IMO AMD knows this. Hope so.