Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

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poke01

Diamond Member
Mar 8, 2022
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Nah. There's lots of such people. I will state my own example. I think the world as a whole looks to be going towards increased instability and uncertainty in every sense of the word so I am finding it easier and easier to throw money away at some hardware to experience the good stuff before everything comes crashing down.
Might as well buy threadripper or eypcs
 

inquiss

Senior member
Oct 13, 2010
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562
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If it follows AMD recipe it should be cost efficient when it comes to the fixed development cost.

Do you think it would be unprofitable due to lack of demand from customers?
I can't really imagine a set of customers that would want this product. Who would?
 

inquiss

Senior member
Oct 13, 2010
399
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People would go crazy for it, especially if it becomes sort of a middle ground between consumer dual channel and HEDT 8-channels with quad channel RAM support.
Nope, no one would buy it. Who is the market for it? Who needs high core count but generates no income from it? (So can't afford proper muktithread). What evidence do we have that it would sell. It's basically a more threaded version of intels latest line. No one cares.
 

inquiss

Senior member
Oct 13, 2010
399
562
136
Nah. There's lots of such people. I will state my own example. I think the world as a whole looks to be going towards increased instability and uncertainty in every sense of the word so I am finding it easier and easier to throw money away at some hardware to experience the good stuff before everything comes crashing down.
There's like 2 people that think like this and are using it to tinker like a toy, while not buying the best for gaming.
 

oak8292

Member
Sep 14, 2016
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Interesting. How does it work? When the revenue from the fab is below certain minimum, which Apollo or Brookfield were promised?
I have a rudimentary understanding of wafer supply agreements from owning AMD briefly and TSMC long term. AMD spun off GF with wafer supply agreements to base load the fabs. They had problems selling enough processors to meet those agreements.

TSMC builds fabs and the size is essentially based on wafer supply agreements. Apple is using a TSMC fab for about five years, three years of ramp up and two tail years.

Essentially leading edge capacity isn’t built speculatively, it is too expensive. Intel probably has a five year wafer supply contract with TSMC for the N3 capacity they are using. Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake may fulfill that contract.

Research on Brookfield and Apollo has Fitch rating Brookfield as essentially debt and Apollo more as a partner with wafer supply agreements.

Here is what Fitch says about Apollo.

“Intel has agreed to preferential loading of Fab 34 relative to other Intel fabs running the same process and tooling and payment of liquidated damages to Apollo in various circumstances if Intel fails to meet minimum volume commitments, which Fitch views as typical of wafer supply agreements. In addition, under various ancillary Intel and Apollo agreements, Intel or Intel Ireland may be required to pay liquidated damages or termination payments under various scenarios, including under-performance or termination, an amount up to 140% of Apollo’s purchase price. Intel will provide a parent guarantee to the obligations of Intel Ireland, which owns the Fab 34 assets.”

 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
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Can you say in a more general way?

Cause i understood jack sh*t lol
Unless I'm mistaken:

bLLC - Big 144 MB L3 cache NVL competitor to Ryzen X3D.
-AX - Mobile NVL APU with big IGP like Strix Halo

Basically Adroc is saying that the niche, benchmark winning SKUs to fight off AMD mindshare will be canned under Lip-Bu Tan due to being too expensive and with few customers to serve, in order to reduce costs.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,882
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Unless I'm mistaken:

bLLC - Big 144 MB L3 cache NVL competitor to Ryzen X3D.
-AX - Mobile NVL APU with big IGP like Strix Halo

Basically Adroc is saying that the niche, benchmark winning SKUs to fight off AMD mindshare will be canned under Lip-Bu Tan due to being too expensive and with few customers to serve, in order to reduce costs.
I think the "b" in bLLC is supposed to mean the LLC is in the base tile, right?
 

DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
1,449
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I honestly think he has a larger hill to climb than PG when PG started his role, simply based on there not being Covid to boost chip demand, AMD/Nvidia are solidly more ahead than before, and employee morale is going to take an even bigger hit if he had to make cuts.
This is why I'm saying it's a bump in the overall decline, just like Pat becoming CEO was a bump in the overall decline. We will have Lunarlakes in the future, but many more Arrowlakes and 10nm.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Basically Adroc is saying that the niche, benchmark winning SKUs to fight off AMD mindshare will be canned under Lip-Bu Tan due to being too expensive and with few customers to serve, in order to reduce costs.
OK, well, I'm not exactly allergic to a Celeron running at 6 GHz with 10 P-cores
 

marees

Golden Member
Apr 28, 2024
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In a letter to employees today, Tan said that under his leadership Intel will work hard to “restore Intel’s position as a world-class products company [and] establish ourselves as a world-class foundry”, suggesting he understands and believes in Intel’s rare advantage as an IDM.

While these words are reassuring, the appointment of someone with a lifetime of serious industry credentials is a huge relief, not least because it means that if a split is inevitable, it will at least be for the right reasons.

 
Jul 27, 2020
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She took down Intel. Now AMD's CEO has a new miracle to perform.
Emma Cosgrove, Helen Li

When a top analyst skewered AMD's software, CEO Lisa Su called him personally to chat.
AMD's AI chips have struggled to compete against Nvidia's dominance, and software is its weakness.
Those who know Su told Business Insider she would never settle for second place.

What should a CEO do when their company is publicly called out for an inferior product? Many would stay silent. Not AMD CEO Lisa Su.

In early February, AMD released new data showing how well its AI chips performed at training large language models, using benchmarks developed by a company called SemiAnalysis. Just weeks earlier, the same group had published a searing review of AMD's tentpole graphics processing unit.

The analysts wrote that while the chip looked good on paper, reaching its potential in reality was almost impossible with AMD's existing software. The chief analyst, Dylan Patel, and the rest of the SemiAnalysis team spent five months assessing AMD's GPU, which has struggled to gain market share and mindshare against the dominant player, Nvidia.

"We were hopeful that AMD could emerge as a strong competitor to Nvidia in training workloads, but, as of today, this is unfortunately not the case," SemiAnalysis published in December.

The next day, Patel got a call from Su. The call was scheduled for 30 minutes, but it lasted 90.

"Feedback is a gift even when it's critical," Su tweeted after the call. The new performance data released in February was a punch back in a fight that's far from over.

2024 was the year of Lisa Su. She was Time and Chief Executive Magazine's CEO of the year.

Last year, AMD outsold Intel in its data center business, overtaking its old rival in the traditional data center world. This became the triumphant apex of Su's first decade as the CEO of AMD. Revenue for the whole of 2024 was up 14% year over year — gross profits up 22% — and yet when Su reported the results in February, the stock went down.

As Su achieved what many thought impossible and conquered her old foil, Intel, a new one had already presented itself in the AI prognosticator Nvidia, led by CEO Jensen Huang, Su's cousin born in the same region of Taiwan as her. Shareholders wouldn't let her forget her biggest rival.

Whether AMD can meet the seemingly insurmountable challenge of Nvidia's estimated 90% market share may come down to the approaches of two Taiwanese-born, US-educated, distantly related CEOs.

Su has already stated the company's goals. She's leaning into open-source software and beefing up support for large language model training and inference customers. Most importantly, she's raising the bar for AMD's software so that it can better stand up to Nvidia's — since Huang has long professed that software is Nvidia's secret sauce.

"We are still in the very early stages with AI, and we believe there's no one-size-fits-all approach to AI compute," an AMD spokesperson told Business Insider. AMD declined to make Su available for an interview.

BI spoke with nine people for this story — five of whom have at one point had a personal relationship with Su and three of whom worked under her at AMD. They said that whether in 2007, 2017, or 2027, the stoic, thoughtful, quietly confident executive walking the brightest stages in the tech world had been and would be exactly who she seems. Though she may never conquer Nvidia, she won't rest while she's in the No. 2 spot. Her play involves intently listening to partners as well as critics, and it's worked before.

AMD CEO Lisa Su's public presentation style has changed since she took over the company in 2014. AMD
Lisa Su says, 'Why not?'

Some early indications suggested that starting at the bottom motivated Su to get to the top.

Born in Taiwan and raised in New York, Su intentionally picked the most challenging STEM field she could think of: electrical engineering. After earning her doctorate, she received multiple offers to stay in academia but decided to join Texas Instruments instead, Dimitri Antoniadis, her thesis advisor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told BI. She wanted to manage people and projects, she recently told Stanford business students. After leaving TI for IBM, she was tapped to serve as a technical assistant for Lou Gerstner, IBM's chairman and CEO.

Antoniadis recalled late-night phone conversations with Su when she was at these "juncture points" in her career. She left IBM in 2007, spent 4 ½ years at Freescale Semiconductor, and then came to AMD in 2012.

The professor got one such call in late 2014. Su had managed AMD's various business units and operations for nearly three years — deep in the weeds of the entire company yet without the authority to set the overall direction. She called Antoniadis when she was asked to take the CEO job, which meant going after a market dominated by Intel. The original Silicon Valley icon had a market capitalization of more than $150 billion and a reputation for ruthlessness. AMD's market cap was just $2 billion.

"At the time, I said: 'Lisa, are you serious? Taking on Intel?' She said, 'Why not?'" Antoniadis told BI.

Su sought multiple opinions on the big decision to head AMD. Lip-Bu Tan, a legendary semiconductor CEO turned investor who's set to step into the Intel CEO role on March 18, was also on the call list. Tan and Su met years earlier when she was at Freescale Semiconductor, and he was impressed from the start, he told BI.

Tan was fully aware of AMD's sad state at the time. The firm had completed two rounds of layoffs since 2011 and pulled out of the processor market. The company needed focus.

"Only the gaming business was doing well. The rest were struggling," Tan said. Despite this, he didn't hesitate to recommend the job to Su. He had just orchestrated a revival of a similar magnitude at Cadence Design Systems and knew the opportunity such a turnaround could be.

"The market value was less than $3 billion — you can't go wrong with that. It is so undervalued," Tan said of AMD.


Su took over AMD on October 8, 2014. A 7% staff cut proceeded, and Su set out to make long-term bets and win back customers. Tan said Su soon had top tech execs such as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Dell's chief operating officer, Jeff Clarke, trusting her, mainly because of her hands-on style. Even for routine annual business reviews, Su knows all the numbers and listens intently to concerns, sources said.

"They love her. She is very engaged — very involved," Tan said.

Su has evolved her style over her 10 years as CEO of AMD. She's somewhat less stoic, makes jokes onstage, wears brighter colors, has more perfectly coiffed hair, and has come to appreciate Christian Louboutin heels. AMD declined to comment on these details.

"I am not surprised at all where she is right now. I truly expected it," Antoniadis said.

AMD's market cap has grown to about $160 billion as of Wednesday — much higher than its $2 billion market cap when Su first started. This month, all AI stocks have taken a dive amid uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policy shifts.

Now, Su has a new miracle to perform.

Su vs. Huang

In 2018, Su sat with a handful of Wall Street analysts in a private meeting space near the Las Vegas Convention Center. The Consumer Electronics Show, one of the largest tech conferences of the year, bustled in the massive building's halls.

Su was just over three years into her job as CEO of AMD, and the company's stock hovered above just $10 per share.

The analysts in that Las Vegas conference room had a lot of advice for the then 48-year-old CEO, according to a person present, who asked not to be named since the session was private. The room was full of men eager to tell Su how to seize on her progress and take AMD to the next level. There was chatter in the nerdier accelerated computing circles that machine learning was ready to scale, and the analysts weren't sure AMD was seeing the signs.

Su took it all in and politely thanked everyone. She knew accelerated computing would change the world as early as 2017, she has since said in interviews. The graphics processing unit made that possible.

At the time, the entertainment industry used them for gaming and graphics rendering. While AMD has designed this kind of hardware for two decades, Nvidia's Huang beat the entire tech industry to the punch when he identified the AI opportunity for GPUs and started building software to help it spread. Since ChatGPT's birth, Nvidia and AMD have been in an epic race — only Nvidia had a massive head start.

Both Huang and Su are notoriously hardworking — late nights and weekends are a given.

But Huang is a showman. He dominates a stage whether it be at the front of a boardroom or a concert arena. Su is less flashy. She rarely, if ever, raises her voice, and her business strategy echoes that quiet, inexhaustible, confident consistency, sources said.

"You know she's in charge, but she's also a very quiet leader," said Jodi Shelton, the CEO and cofounder of the Global Semiconductor Alliance. Shelton recalled an intimate dinner at Su's Texas home with just Su and her husband, Daniel Lin, where Su asked most of the questions.

"She doesn't need to interject when someone's speaking. She doesn't have to be the loudest person in the room," Shelton continued.

Onstage, Su often paces, making measured announcements. At team meetings, she drills for answers about what needs to be done next and delegates tasks, personally reviewing AMD's GPU distribution on spreadsheets, the AMD employees said.

In a world where CEOs including the former Intel leader Pat Gelsinger have announced plans such as five nodes in four years and fell short in execution, AMD has slowly marched forward. Even Nvidia's yearly cadence of new GPU generations has hit production and installation snags. Su is wary of overpromising and underexecuting, several sources said. Execution is nonnegotiable.

"That's not very easy for people to do for such a long time," said Sharon Zhou, the founder of Lamini, who has committed to AMD hardware over Nvidia. "Which is why I think she presents the main threat to Nvidia. It forces Nvidia into a place where they can't make mistakes."

Huang is motivated by being so early that he can form new markets around new technologies, the Nvidia executive Rev Lebaredian told BI. Su wants to meet existing demand with an unfailingly great product.

"She knows AMD products technically in and out and can hold her own discussing any product with its respective engineers," one AMD employee said. "She's pretty quiet in person, but you could tell by the way she was looking at the lab and talking to the engineers that she was proud and happy to be there."

Her relentless consistency and focus on strong, reciprocal customer relationships make her undiminishable as a competitor, even for Nvidia, sources said.

"She's one of the most responsive people," Zhou said. When Zhou was trying to close Series A funding for Lamini, Su offered up the entire afternoon to chat with prospective investors, a day after an earnings call.

Lisa Su listens to a man speak next to a server while onlookers raise their phones to capture the moment.
Su's star has risen even as AMD struggles to take market share from Nvidia. Here, she's pictured at Computex Taipei, one of the world's largest computer and technology expos, in June 2024. AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying
The only way is software

Many chip industry analysts agree that while AMD's hardware has caught up, it can't truly compete without better software. Nvidia's CUDA software has become the industry standard and allows engineers to program GPUs with flexibility and relative ease. AMD's software is still a work in progress, as SemiAnalysis's report detailed.

For the full 2024 fiscal year, Nvidia reported $115.2 billion in revenue in its data center segment — where most AI computing happens. AMD reported $12.6 billion for data centers in the same time period (though the reporting periods are slightly different). It's an enormous gulf that even the best of execution may never close.

Those who know Su say she will never settle for second.

"She does want to win, which doesn't mean second. It actually means first. First, you have to be second, and then you get to be first," Zhou said.

If Su has a winning strategy in mind, it's still a mystery to some AMD watchers.

In a February 5 note to investors, the Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote that AMD had not yet "managed to articulate" how or from where it would wrest market share from Nvidia.

"It could take much more in software, scale deployment, and system-level integration to break AMD's current less than 5% market share," Arya wrote.

Winning for Su will be about picking her fights, said Tan, the incoming Intel CEO, who's also friends with Huang. In 2024, Nvidia's R&D budget was about twice AMD's. Su still has to be discerning.

"You have to pick your best field," Tan said. "You can't do everything, like Jensen," he continued. Huang makes the menu, he said. Su can choose only a few dishes to battle over.

On the company's February earnings call, Su moved up the company's next chip launch by a few months.

AMD's fourth-quarter earnings beat expectations, yet investors balked. The Wall Street analyst consensus was that revenue was growing, though not enough came from AI.

"This is a 10-year arc. This is not a two-year arc. So let's not think about this as what's going to happen next quarter," Su told Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff at its conference in September.

Hint: She's the quiet, yet incredibly determined and focused type of genius.

Su sought multiple opinions on the big decision to head AMD. Lip-Bu Tan, a legendary semiconductor CEO turned investor who's set to step into the Intel CEO role on March 18, was also on the call list. Tan and Su met years earlier when she was at Freescale Semiconductor, and he was impressed from the start, he told BI.

Tan was fully aware of AMD's sad state at the time. The firm had completed two rounds of layoffs since 2011 and pulled out of the processor market. The company needed focus.

"Only the gaming business was doing well. The rest were struggling," Tan said. Despite this, he didn't hesitate to recommend the job to Su. He had just orchestrated a revival of a similar magnitude at Cadence Design Systems and knew the opportunity such a turnaround could be.

"The market value was less than $3 billion — you can't go wrong with that. It is so undervalued," Tan said of AMD.
 

DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
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without 3d stacked with TSV, its going to be way slower.
How slow it is actually depends on how much performance they got out of it.

How much is X3D over non-X3D versus Intel's eDRAM and non-eDRAM? If the difference is not that significant, then they'll have little problem getting close with SRAM which is much faster.

Also, slow caches are an engineering issue. When Intel was at peak, they made really dense and fast caches. You can see from Lakefield that just having a feature checkmarked is not enough - actual implementation has to be good.

As long as the latency is low enough, the large framebuffer allows going into system memory.
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
774
1,227
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TL DR: More layoffs, AI strategy up and running, IFS focus on customers and improving yields.

- Tan to focus on Intel Foundry and AI chip production, sources say
- Tan aims to improve efficiency and revive Intel's manufacturing prowess, sources say
- New Intel CEO plan likely to include management reorganization, sources say
- Tan is considering broadening Intel's AI business, sources say

Tan signalled in a memo Intel published Wednesday that he plans to keep control over the factories, which remain financially and operationally separate from the design business and restore Intel's position as a "world-class foundry."
Tan is expected to work on ways to improve output or "yield" to deliver higher numbers of chips printed on each silicon wafer as they move to volume manufacturing of its first in-house chip using the so-called 18A process this year.
The goal is to move to an annual release schedule of AI chips, similar to Nvidia, but that will take years. It will be at least 2027 before Intel can develop a compelling new architecture for a first AI chip, according to three industry sources, and one person familiar with Intel’s progress.
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
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TL DR: More layoffs, AI strategy up and running, IFS focus on customers and improving yields.

- Tan to focus on Intel Foundry and AI chip production, sources say
- Tan aims to improve efficiency and revive Intel's manufacturing prowess, sources say
- New Intel CEO plan likely to include management reorganization, sources say
- Tan is considering broadening Intel's AI business, sources say
To be honest, it doesn't sound all too different than what PG's goals were, except for the addition of trimming the bloat.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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To be honest, it doesn't sound all too different than what PG's goals were, except for the addition of trimming the bloat.
But he's going to be more ruthless, especially towards the lazy middle management. The people who "pretend" to know but get all their dirty work done by their subordinates and claim credit and financial incentives for their underlings' hard work.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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If that is the #1 goal (Foundry, AI) just for comparison, Intel currently is:
- distant 3rd behind distant 2nd (Samsung) behind #1 TSMC in foundry
- distant 3rd behind distant 2nd (AMD) behind #1 NVidia in AI

1 year turnaround which is apparently the goal, is not gong to make a meaningful difference in either one of those fields.

The only thing that may have a meaningful impact in one year is Intel Internal foundry delivering competitive dies to Intel Products.
 
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Gideon

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