SourceWhile Tehran has on occasion bowed to external pressure, throughout its 43-year history the Islamic republic’s sole response to internal crises has been to double down on repression. It is this brutality that has sustained the government. But there are growing fractures in the foundation, at a time when the country is braced for a potential leadership transition due to 83-year-old Khamenei’s uncertain health. While the Islamic republic’s security forces may appear in control for the moment, there are far more signs of regime frailty in Iran today than there was in Egypt and Tunisia in December 2010, weeks before their governments were overthrown.
I feel like I've been reading variations on that article for 40 years now.
Agreed just like here “Next Election young people are going to turn out to vote” which never happens or “Young people in Iran are going to change everything” which never happens.I feel like I've been reading variations on that article for 40 years now.
Seems as if every few years they tell us how 'the young' are chaffing under the restrictions of the socially-conservative state and that a big change is coming any day now. Most of the time though it seems to be largely based on considering urban and middle-class people. Not convinced reporters ever accurately assess what goes on in less-educated or more rural communities.
Wish I could find some of those earlier articles on-line, I am sure I remember reading some of them in the late 1980s or the '90s.
That said, I am sure that things can't stay the same forever. Iran seems very different from somewhere like Saudi Arabia - in that it has a rich and varied culture with a long history, that has a lot more to its identity than just religion and oil.
But how did things turn out in Egypt and Tunisia and the Arab Spring in general? Do things ever really get better or just change to different kinds of problems?
When the current Supreme Leader dies (been in office since 1989) there could be a shift in attitudes at the top. Maybe.
Or could be wishful thinking.
Let hope something good can come out of this. Iran could be a beacon of Enlightenment in the Middle East.
Iran already had its Gorbachev.
Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi , the Shah of Iran, and his repressive regime brutally ruled most aspects of life in Iran. Over time, disenchantment and anger over his 41-year long dictatorship spawned massive protests against his government inside Iran and out.
After the Shah was diagnosed with cancer, President Jimmy Carter allowed the stricken dictator into the U.S. for treatment in 1979. Iran erupted in rage and we all know what happened.
Iranians stormed the U.S. Embassy and a year long nightmare ensued.
Here's the bottom line: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had spent the last 15 years in exile, returned to Iran. He became the Holy leader of the rebels and religious mullahs took over the country.
For all intents and purposes, he was Gorbachev to Iran's rebels.
We just don't view him that way because we are conditioned to judge regimes and nations by the number of shopping centers, automobiles, industries and banks. And numbers of folks showing up to vote in contrived election contests.
Indeed. Edited my post reflecting this.It already was.
This one feels a lot different. I don't recall seeing basiji this scared, running while being chased by hundreds of people. Iranian women seem pretty done with theocracy.
A mob tosses the police.
The military murders the mob.
Peace in the Middle East / Arab / Muslim world.
Always has been.
I hope the people of Iran break free of their theocratic regime and things can progress positively for them.
Indonesia?I imagine a stable central government is the best situation most of those nations can hope to achieve.
It is when they lose that, where !@#$ really hits the fan and people start dying in droves.
Do we have any modern examples of a Muslim nation having a positive outcome following the overthrow of their government?
I imagine a stable central government is the best situation most of those nations can hope to achieve.
It is when they lose that, where !@#$ really hits the fan and people start dying in droves.
Do we have any modern examples of a Muslim nation having a positive outcome following the overthrow of their government?
I imagine a stable central government is the best situation most of those nations can hope to achieve.
It is when they lose that, where !@#$ really hits the fan and people start dying in droves.
Do we have any modern examples of a Muslim nation having a positive outcome following the overthrow of their government?
Dubya will claim Iraq was one and Obama might say Libya was.