Saturday July 10, 2004--Senator Kerry now leads President Bush in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll, 49% to 45%. Today's results reflect a five-point net gain for the Democrats since John Edwards was named as Kerry's running mate. In our last survey before the announcement, President Bush had a one-point edge, 47% to 46%.
Today is the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination that either candidate topped the 48% mark in our daily Tracking Poll. Prior to today, both candidates had stayed within three points of the 45% mark on every single night of polling for more than 120 days.
Yesterday, we released data showing Kerry leading by 5 points in Pennsylvania while Bush leads by four in Ohio. Our latest Electoral College projections show Kerry leading Bush 247-203. Later today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release our latest results for Michigan and Virginia.
The Kerry-Edwards ticket is enjoying a modest bounce in today's polling release. However, it is not as big as some had anticipated. As a practical matter, there are not likely to be big bounces this year--even following the conventions. Four factors combine to reduce the potential for frivolous bounces in the polls.
First, more money has already been spent on advertising before the conventions than ever before. Second, the country is polarized in their opinions about George W. Bush. Third, the convention television coverage and audience will be smaller than ever. Fourth, the reality of what happens with Iraq and the U.S. economy dwarfs any campaign tactics in terms of electoral impact.
Earlier in the week, we released polling data for Missouri, Iowa, and Maine. All three states are too close to call. We also showed Senator Kerry leading President Bush in Florida by a margin of 48% to 43%. Our North Carolina polling data showed Bush with a seven-point lead in Edwards' home state. We also released new data for New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Texas.
Democrats are now much more optimistic about their prospects of winning in November. In fact, among all voters, 46% believe the Bush-Cheney team will be re-elected while 44% believe Kerry and Edwards will emerge victorious. Those figures represent a dramatic improvement for the Democrats compared to a month ago.
While Republicans are presenting Kerry and Edwards as the most liberal ticket ever, a majority of Americans say that John Edwards is a political moderate. Edwards is also viewed more favorably than the man he hopes to replace, Dick Cheney.
The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.