Legacy automakers death watch thread

[NutBucket]

Yeah, no. 2030 is too soon unless the Tesla equivalent of the $25k CR-V/RAV4 comes to the market and actually costs that much.

 

[Wreckem]

We shall see in 2030 when TSLA is the largest auto company in the world and also one of the most valuable. We shall see how many of the legacy companies survived and in what form.

Most valuable maybe largest in sales? Not going to happen. VW sold 6.3million cars(not counting all their other brands). They sold slightly over 80,000 evs(1/4 of Tesla)with a very very small EV lineup. Coming soon they will have a stable of four affordable evs in the VW lineup and a about total of 12 across their brands.

And if Ford gets their Electric F150 right they will do just fine vs Tesla.

 

[ponyo]

Most valuable maybe largest in sales? Not going to happen. VW sold 6.3million cars(not counting all their other brands). They sold slightly over 80,000 evs(1/4 of Tesla)with a very very small EV lineup. Coming soon they will have a stable of four affordable evs in the VW lineup and a about total of 12 across their brands.

And if Ford gets their Electric F150 right they will do just fine vs Tesla.

Oh it will happen. TSLA is growing exponentially. Over 50% annual growth rate. This Covid-19 screwed up world economies so it will delay Tesla and lower their growth rate short term but over 10 years, they can't and won't be stopped. VW is the only legacy automaker I'm remotely even positive about since Herbert Diess appears to be the only auto CEO other than Elon Musk with any sort of clue where the future is.

 

[NutBucket]

They can keep growing but one thing is you can't force people to give up their gas cars....unless your plan includes the government replacing them.

 

[jlee]

They can keep growing but one thing is you can't force people to give up their gas cars....unless your plan includes the government replacing them.

Gas cars will be around for a long time, but I suspect in time they will no longer be mainstream. Sports cars, 4x4's, etc...but not your ordinary commuters.

 

[ponyo]

They can keep growing but one thing is you can't force people to give up their gas cars....unless your plan includes the government replacing them.

It's not about forcing. Pretty soon, you're going to see people demand electric cars and won't buy gas cars. People will vote with their wallet. To me it's plain as day what's going to happen. It's like the switch from dumb phones to smartphones but at slower speed since average car replacement cycle is about 4-5 years vs around 1 -2 years for cellphone. Switch to electric is really going to pick up steam around 2025-2026 time frame and majority of people buying will only consider electric cars at that point.

 

[ondma]

It's not about forcing. Pretty soon, you're going to see people demand electric cars and won't buy gas cars. People will vote with their wallet. To me it's plain as day what's going to happen. It's like the switch from dumb phones to smartphones but at slower speed since average car replacement cycle is about 4-5 years vs around 1 -2 years for cellphone. Switch to electric is really going to pick up steam around 2025-2026 time frame and majority of people buying will only consider electric cars at that point.

EV sales will probably in fact pick up by that time frame. However, if they do it will be because the "legacy automakers" or Tesla, will provide EVs with good range in the 20 to 25k bracket, not 40K which basically is what it takes to get into a Tesla with the long range battery.

 

[NutBucket]

Here's the problem. Median income in the US is $32k. Median income in Los Angeles is $55k. And you're claiming in 5 years people will be breaking down the doors to buy $40k EVs? Maybe if the used market has lots of inventory between $10-$20k.....

Also, the charging infrastructure is ok for the current number of EVs on the road. Multiply by 10 and you've got a problem. Plus all that energy for those chargers has got to come from a clean source too.

 

[Greenman]

I don't think that four to five year replacement cycle is accurate. Looks like the average age in the US is just under twelve years. The other issue will be the ability of the power grid to support all of those electric cars. A little research shows that Texas could make the change right now with some limits on when you can plug your car in. California couldn't do it. So there will have to be some major infrastructure upgrades along the way.
Cost is going to be the major issue, I would expect that as more cars are being produced, the cost of raw materials for batteries will increase as there appears to be a limited quantity available.
At some point in the not to distant future I would expect to see most vehicles being electric, though Tesla's complete command of that market seems dubious. Using your smartphone comparison, apple invented the device and at one point owned the market, now they're a distant second to android phones.

 

[Brainonska511]

Here's the problem. Median income in the US is $32k. Median income in Los Angeles is $55k. And you're claiming in 5 years people will be breaking down the doors to buy $40k EVs? Maybe if the used market has lots of inventory between $10-$20k.....

Also, the charging infrastructure is ok for the current number of EVs on the road. Multiply by 10 and you've got a problem. Plus all that energy for those chargers has got to come from a clean source too.

It would probably be easier and better to improve mass transit in cities and allow more to live carless than to expect 1:1 EV:ICE replacement.

 

[NutBucket]

While this is true, good luck in places like LA that are so spread out.

 

[Brainonska511]

While this is true, good luck in places like LA that are so spread out.

We say that now, but 1) not all of LA is like that, and 2) it didn't become that way overnight. Allow for more fill-in housing, mixed commercial/residential, and just some modest density increases, and you can change that over time.

 

[NutBucket]

Most people in LA are used to the suburban lifestyle. I hate not having a yard.

 

[manly]

Here's the problem. Median income in the US is $32k. Median income in Los Angeles is $55k. And you're claiming in 5 years people will be breaking down the doors to buy $40k EVs? Maybe if the used market has lots of inventory between $10-$20k.....

Also, the charging infrastructure is ok for the current number of EVs on the road. Multiply by 10 and you've got a problem. Plus all that energy for those chargers has got to come from a clean source too.

There will be virtually zero market for affordable used Tesla Model 3s because according to Elon, the FSD software will soon unlock a robotaxi that grosses mid 5 figures annually while the owner sleeps.

I don't think that four to five year replacement cycle is accurate. Looks like the average age in the US is just under twelve years. The other issue will be the ability of the power grid to support all of those electric cars. A little research shows that Texas could make the change right now with some limits on when you can plug your car in. California couldn't do it. So there will have to be some major infrastructure upgrades along the way.
Cost is going to be the major issue, I would expect that as more cars are being produced, the cost of raw materials for batteries will increase as there appears to be a limited quantity available.
At some point in the not to distant future I would expect to see most vehicles being electric, though Tesla's complete command of that market seems dubious. Using your smartphone comparison, apple invented the device and at one point owned the market, now they're a distant second to android phones.

I agree with your argument, but the Apple comp is a not a good one. Apple is precisely what TSLA bulls think Tesla, Inc. is headed to eventually. Not necessarily dominating market share, but dominating industry profits. With so many global automakers, no single firm/alliance actually dominates in sales. Except for the true delusionals like ponyo who think legacy automakers are all doomed, and Tesla will dominate sales as well.

Tesla and its shareholders would be thrilled if it ever approximates Apple's success with the iPhone. But I wouldn't directly compare selling autos to phones; these are entirely different markets.

 

[NutBucket]

There will be virtually zero market for affordable used Tesla Model 3s because according to Elon, the FSD software will soon unlock a robotaxi that grosses mid 5 figures annually while the owner sleeps.

I meant used ev market in general.

 

[Torn Mind]

The unfortunate reality is that cars are absolutely terrible for everyone. At the individual level they are hugely expensive for normal people to buy, cost a small fortune to operate, depreciate like mad, and sit idle 95% of the time. At a local level they consume an absurd amount of physical space (parking lots, roads, garages, wrecking yards, etc). And that's before you get to traffic deaths and pollution impacts.

You're absolutely correct that EVs are not perfect. On top of the battery being a giant tile of toxic chemicals there is still particulate output from brakes and tires (generally less brake, more tire). Paint shops are still an environmental disaster. But they are significantly better than what we have been driving around in for the last century. We should not stay with ICE just because EV is not perfect.

Today's EVs can be cash flow positive for the very first owner. Their essentially unlimited drivetrain life means that they can be useful for longer than an equivalent gas vehicle. If and when autonomy makes transportation as a service viable we have the potential to completely restructure society. Our entire world is built on a model that is not sustainable. I truly love cars, but it's in everyone's best interest to end private car ownership as soon as possible. EV adoption is the first step.

Viper GTS

Traffic deaths are the result of increasing population density. People dream of buses and public transporation...that's requires a plow over of green areas thrice over to make for the chic gentrified concrete jungles in cities. People are not getting run over in rural areas and the high-class areas that used to be (i.e Potomac, MD) rural because those areas are inhospitable to non-car owners.

EVs are costly to professionals and those in which time is of the essence. Time is lost during refilling and there is a huge risk of supply shocks via infrastructre damage. Until there is the Corolla/Craftsman of EVs, they will not replace old-fahsioned gas.

 

[jlee]

Here's the problem. Median income in the US is $32k. Median income in Los Angeles is $55k. And you're claiming in 5 years people will be breaking down the doors to buy $40k EVs? Maybe if the used market has lots of inventory between $10-$20k.....

Also, the charging infrastructure is ok for the current number of EVs on the road. Multiply by 10 and you've got a problem. Plus all that energy for those chargers has got to come from a clean source too.

Meanwhile, the average new vehicle price is $38k: https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2020-01-0...n-December-2019-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book

I don't understand the charger argument. When gasoline cars were beginning to be common, we didn't have the gas station network we have today either -- yet somehow, we now do...not to mention, massive numbers of people do not need to rely on public charging stations.

 

[bigi]

Here's the problem. Median income in the US is $32k. Median income in Los Angeles is $55k. And you're claiming in 5 years people will be breaking down the doors to buy $40k EVs? Maybe if the used market has lots of inventory between $10-$20k.....

Also, the charging infrastructure is ok for the current number of EVs on the road. Multiply by 10 and you've got a problem. Plus all that energy for those chargers has got to come from a clean source too.

You seem to think that the US will dictate EV trends.

I think that China and then Europe have shown that ICE cars are already dead.

Generally due to lack of information and interest people have underestimated many powers that China has in its arsenal. EVs are set in stone in China's future. Period.

Now, just look at the scale of this factory. It is truly mind boggling how quickly things get done in China.

China has had and will have tremendous buying powers for years to come. EVERY car manufacturer depends on China and wants to be a part of it.

"China is the largest new-vehicle market in the world. Passenger-vehicle sales reached almost 24 million cars in 2018, according to Gong, about one-quarter of the global total. U.S. car sales, by comparison, total about 17 million units annually. (U.S. sales have also trended lower in 2019.) " source

After only a year of building they got a fully functioning Giga Shanghai that has been producing 3000 cars a week since 1/2020.

They are expanding to 3-4x their initial size.

Now, back to the EU. Giga Berlin will be similar in size. In a year or so, it will produce 3K cars a week and increasing.

To summarize, yes US market is important but we can't omit the rest of the world especially when US ain't the biggest player here.

 

[NutBucket]

Still doesn't solve the problem of where all the clean energy comes from for all those batteries *cough*China.

 

[Torn Mind]

China gets things done because the government is chasing number padding. Everything there is built like Harbor Freight tools so the GDP can be inflated.

The sale of vehicles-EV or gas over there is a net negative on the environment, as indicates they aren't the poop-hole they were 50 years ago. The thing is, being a poophole with lots of grass and forest is better for the environment than concrete jungles with EVs. They burn coal and unlike here, cannot be lobbied by a counterweight to give a crap to make it clean.


EVs are for city folks and middle class suburbia to think they saved something when their local city has plowed over the natural flora and fauna of their residence thrice over or more over the past two centureis.

Unlike most people, I do support so-called renewable energy products, but for political independence, not some deluded and erroneous belief that they can help care for the environment. Obviously, even a EV fueled by coal-produced electricity means many dollars NOT reaching the hands of Middle Eastern suppliers of oil.

European is a less populated place. It takes the entirety of Western Europe to match the size of the U.S population. They tax the bejeezus out of gas and diesel died because particulates are just that bad. So they have nowhere to go but EVs.

However, the flaws of the EV are still present as of now, hence mass adoption is not going to happen until it can match a Corolla. You don't buy bleeding edge if you want stability and reliability; that's about the most salient lesson from Linux that can be applied to real life. .

 

[ponyo]

Herbert Diess out as CEO of VW. Diess is still the chairman as of now. So the rumor I read couple months back about Diess being forced out as CEO was true.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/volkswagen-replaces-herbert-diess-as-ceo-of-vw-brand.html

 

[_Rick_]

Daimler looking to sell the Hambach Smart factory.

Now, I know Smart never made any money, but surely, it would be the one safe bet in a weak economy that needs to save the climate at the same time?
I guess the batteries make better margin in EQCs....