I had 1 model 3 show up within 50 miles of me. How far away am I supposed to go? I’m not driving 200/400 miles for a fleet car.
I get your point, but to the average person that’s not stock. Multi-hundred mile trips for greater than 35K cars is not the average purchase. That’s why TSLA is hoping to hit the output of one of the big 3 automakers in a year, that they put out in a quarter.
This prediction is likely to be proven wrong in the next 12 months.My prediction for the next five years is that not a single one will close its doors.
That would be too bad. I like the Altima, especially now that you can get AWD, and the Rogue is an adequate, if unexceptional, SUV at a very good price.This prediction is likely to be proven wrong in the next 12 months.
Not sure why everyone thinks the 1st to fall will be Ford though when Nissan seems more likely.
It probably won't happen for another 5-7 years but soon, used ICE vehicle values are going to plummet and people will be afraid to buy new ICE vehicles in fear they won't be able to sell it or get very much for it. Because the demand for ICE vehicles are going to drop off the cliff, and people will only want BEV.
Probably on the basic commuter market, but that’s it. We won’t be close to that in the SUV or Truck market. That will be entirely dependent on 300mile+ range less than 25K new electric commuter grade cars coming in the market.
Correct. i3’s are a steal used.
I hope he lets all of them fail. Buying any of them will be a huge mistake.
This prediction is likely to be proven wrong in the next 12 months.
Not sure why everyone thinks the 1st to fall will be Ford though when Nissan seems more likely.
You are much more optimistic about electric vehicles than I am. The killer is price and range (or lack thereof), and until those are solved, I just dont see them eliminating ICE vehicles (unless ICEs are legislated out). There need to be a lot of electrics in the price range of a small/midsize Sedan or SUV. The range problem seems even greater for trucks. How huge will the battery have to be for a truck hauling heavy loads or towing in order to have all day battery life? If you are using a truck for heavy duty work, you certainly dont want to have to stop in the middle of the day to charge it. Add to that limitation the effect of cold weather, and EVs still have a long way to go, although I would love to have a Tesla or even a Kona EV.I'd guess more towards 10, but I agree that's looming. Most companies seem to be about 5 away from their electric offerings (multiple models, with production lines to be able to produce enough as well). Give it another 5 beyond that and I think there will be enough production that people can en masse start ditching ICE, plus there will be a used market as well, that just isn't there in that much capacity right now.
Another aspect though is that municipalities are starting to ban ICE cars in the future, and I think that will ramp up more. Some have put it off like a couple of decades (2050 for instance) but I won't be surprised if they move it up once electric becomes more cost effective and there's an abundance of irrefutable proof of the health benefits for cities (I could see a lot of them drop it to 2040 and then even 2035). I also think many want to give some time for the charging network to build out more fully (basically where most places have chargers, especially at home/apartments) and to develop grid management. I think 10 years we'll be getting enough of those things that people will decide now is the time.
I think it'd be neat if we saw a return of drive in theaters, where you could plug in an chill out watching a movie or some TV show for a bit. Have a restaurant as well and a little recreational area. Especially around like rest stops on major highways. Maybe build wind turbines with a viewing area (where you can take an elevator up to like a glass viewing area).
I don't agree, as that market will actually love electric trucks. Torque for rock crawling? Oh yeah. Ability to get both a large "frunk" while also having a normal bed? Hell yeah. Silently creeping through the woods when hunting? Not having to worry about an engine snorkel when wading through streams? Being able to fill up by having a solar array that folds out? Having a big battery to power tools on a job site? And while sure they can't roll coal, or have straight pipes on their big V-8, they'll get over it for the practicality (look at the Ford Raptor where they went with a more economical engine and people didn't seem to have much problem with it). Plus, just watch, we'll end up with ring tones where people can put all sorts of obnoxious junk for their "blind person awareness" noises, and those people will love it.
There's a reason why legacy car makers are now looking at trucks as one of the best areas for electric. It provides one of the biggest changeovers for emissions/MPG/etc (takes the worst and makes it the best in your lineup), but they're already built to handle the weight, and the pricing has ballooned so much that people are already paying a large premium for trucks, so the battery costs become less of an issue. There's other benefits as well (electric torque is great for pickup uses). I wouldn't be surprised if companies started offering a variety of battery trailers to boost range as well (think of it like extended battery cases), where you tow a trailer that has a sizable battery for a long trip. Along the way you could just swap the trailer and not need to sit there a long time charging. Plus pickups have plenty of areas ripe for stuff like solar panels. Pickups were already set for potentially offering fairly quick refurbishment (i.e. when your battery is down enough on charge, swapping the whole chassis with a refurbished one would be easier with body on frame vehicles if the battery and/or electric powertrain is implemented there). That would be big for work trucks.
I was going to look into them as I started researching a new car. My main concerns is reliability and maintenance costs. Wasn't sure if they'd be expensive to upkeep just because they're BMW, and how they hold up (even though electric cars should be more reliable, there's been examples of that not being the case, think the Fiat 500e comes to mind although its probably still more reliable than the normal 500). Even stuff like their oddball tires, which would make them more difficult to source (not sure how much so). I also needed to look into how the range extender works more, as that could potentially be a dealbreaker. Commutes are short enough that slow 110V charging should be fine most of the time and happen to have a plug in our enclosed (but not fully garage) parking space at my apartment. But if it can't handle a vacation trip then it'd probably off the table. Even extended driving on the freeways in a metro area might be cause for some concern with regards to range (probably not big as there's quite a few charging places here, but not sure how out of the way they would be).
He could buy them up and put them to work making hospital beds and respirators. That'd be a lot of goodwill and he'd likely get government money to make the transition then he could sell the company to someone else.
Honestly, I feel like this could be an opportunity to reset certain things that have gotten wildly out of whack. For instance those plants making Abrams tanks in Ohio that need a reason to stay open (despite the Army telling politicians they don't need more tanks as they don't do much tanking fighting any more), put them to work making emergency supplies. That stuff will need to be replenished on a regular basis (even if its not used), so it'd be something that would have a reason to stay going, and it'd be a lot better reason than making tanks. Or put them to work making wind turbines (like ones on truck trailers that can be rolled into an area after a natural disaster in order to provide electricity).
Didn't Subaru just have the best decade of any automaker in the U.S.? They finally stopped growing in 2019, but that's more due to macroeconomic issues than anything. I don't know what their future holds, but I'm pretty sure they went from a niche automaker to #8 in the U.S. Actually higher market share than any of the German brands!Yeah I think Nissan and FCA are both in bigger trouble than Ford. The latter is sitting on something like $35billion, and they already produced hybrids and are launching their first real serious electric vehicle this year (and it makes me think a lot of the Model Y, which should be Tesla's most popular model). Chrysler has been delaying overhauling their lineup for like over a decade, got bled a lot as Fiat poured billions into trying to make Alfa and Maserati prestige brands, and were desperately seeking a partner to get platform for overhauling their lineup. Nissan isn't much better. They partnered with Mercedes which I don't think helped them, then got mismanaged into a mess. They have aging models and not much money, plus unsure of where to go (i.e. they haven't figured out their electric transition yet).
There's others I'd be worried about as well. Subaru for instance is struggling with growth, but they'll also need to be looking at transitioning to electric. Market issues could quickly put a squeeze on them.
Didn't Subaru just have the best decade of any automaker in the U.S.? They finally stopped growing in 2019, but that's more due to macroeconomic issues than anything. I don't know what their future holds, but I'm pretty sure they went from a niche automaker to #8 in the U.S. Actually higher market share than any of the German brands!
Ford Q1 Year on Year sales down 12.5%
GM down 7%
Fiat Chrysler down 10%
Porsche down 20%
Tesla up 36%
You are showing your lack of education by not refuting any point. Show another automotive business that has been allowed to generated a decade of losses and continue business. I'll wait .This is so wrong at so many levels that it only shows how myopic, uneducated and skewed you are.
Do you work for 'big auto' that you don't get it? Serious question. If you do, I really hope that my money will not be used to bail you out again.
^ hardly any business will show profits during very rapid global expansion and growth. Especially when this is done at this scale - Auto, Solar, Energy Storage, Software. All without unions and govt bailouts.
Tesla has 8B in cash. It is ~$8,000,000,000 clams for further expansion and to last through hard times.
Tesla is doing 3,000+ cars per week in Giga Shanghai during those times. Tesla is building Berlin Giga factory - the home of Merc, Beemer and others. Right under their nose, Tesla is showing the Germans how to build and manufacture good cars.
Profitability? LOL.
Your 'comment' is simply out of context with implied moronic meaning.
Look when Amazon was prfitable.
...
Until Tesla solves the problem of battery capacity, charging access at home (rentals), and cost (sub-35K and sub 25K vehicles), they will not own everyone's share of the market. The other auto makers will continue to adapt. They have for 100+ years, and seen far worse famine than Tesla has. Until the company is gone for good, then it still exists. Bankruptcy by corporation etc is just another tool of the toxic rampant capitalism we see today, as is having 8B in "cash" that isn't actually made from car production, but is simply investor capital fundraising.
Well, opinions are just like you know what. Everyone has one, and actually nearly every point in your post is simply an opinion. The two main problems with Tesla are price and, contrary to your opinion, quality. And range, although great for an EV, is still a limitation.The things you state in several of your posts are simply inaccurate, loose opinions deprived of any meaning.
Why would Tesla solve your rental home charging issue?
The other automakers have not adapted anything in past 8 years. Why would they adopt now? Most, especially the biggest ones, only do press releases, ads full of slogans and nothing else.
I reality we've had the Leaf, Bolt and a few others that sell in minute quantities.
Gasoline manufacturers simply can't compete with Tesla as it is too expensive to support their inefficient and obsolete products while inventing something to compete.
GM just showed a 4 wheels and battery mock-up - this is their adoption strategy. Ford has nothing except a pitiful mock up and release date in several years ahead.
Meredez Bens did EVs so badly that they delayed (scrapped?) those from US market due to terrible range.
VW has had EV ads about non-existent car that "eventually will be produced".
Even Nissan f'd up the new leaf so bad that it is hardly anybody's point of interest.
Remember Jag i-peace? Not too many of those around even though everybody shouted loudly for weeks how "great" it was.
ALL of those have failed to compete and will fail to do so as ALL rely on others to manufacture their batteries. Even Nissan sold its battery business.
Even if somebody catches up to Tesla, which I fail to see now, it will be a long time to match their quality, quantity and battery tech.
Stop subsidize with 4.6 billion a year the oil industry. Buy gasoline for its real price. It is easy to argue with the newcomer when your propellant is cheaper than water due to those subsidies.
Even with those headwinds since very beginning Tesla has been doing its job. They can't produce enough cars to sell them. They are building several factories in scale unheard of before.
Model 3 alone beats all corresponding German competition in terms of sales, wiping the floor with BMW 3 series and several others.
The Tesla Model Y will do the same to current CUV market. It will obliterate that segment.
Once the Semi is being produced and Trucking Industry gets the cost savings, the diesel truck era is over.
It is not like Tesla is going to stop what they do and wait for their 'competitors' to catch up.
Now, this is only small part of what Tesla is made of. Their Software, energy storage and solar are the topic for another posts.
Finally - don't paste your stupid 2018 profitability numbers and try to make those meaningful. Those are irrelevant here.
Smoke and mirrors don't do much anymore. Most do see how bad legacy car manufacturing has become.
I hope this thread will be here in years to come as well as that you will be around. I would like to come back right here and see how things are.
The things you state in several of your posts are simply inaccurate, loose opinions deprived of any meaning.
Why would Tesla solve your rental home charging issue?
The other automakers have not adapted anything in past 8 years. Why would they adopt now? Most, especially the biggest ones, only do press releases, ads full of slogans and nothing else.
I reality we've had the Leaf, Bolt and a few others that sell in minute quantities.
Gasoline manufacturers simply can't compete with Tesla as it is too expensive to support their inefficient and obsolete products while inventing something to compete.
GM just showed a 4 wheels and battery mock-up - this is their adoption strategy. Ford has nothing except a pitiful mock up and release date in several years ahead.
Meredez Bens did EVs so badly that they delayed (scrapped?) those from US market due to terrible range.
VW has had EV ads about non-existent car that "eventually will be produced".
Even Nissan f'd up the new leaf so bad that it is hardly anybody's point of interest.
Remember Jag i-peace? Not too many of those around even though everybody shouted loudly for weeks how "great" it was.
ALL of those have failed to compete and will fail to do so as ALL rely on others to manufacture their batteries. Even Nissan sold its battery business.
Even if somebody catches up to Tesla, which I fail to see now, it will be a long time to match their quality, quantity and battery tech.
Stop subsidize with 4.6 billion a year the oil industry. Buy gasoline for its real price. It is easy to argue with the newcomer when your propellant is cheaper than water due to those subsidies.
Even with those headwinds since very beginning Tesla has been doing its job. They can't produce enough cars to sell them. They are building several factories in scale unheard of before.
Model 3 alone beats all corresponding German competition in terms of sales, wiping the floor with BMW 3 series and several others.
The Tesla Model Y will do the same to current CUV market. It will obliterate that segment.
Once the Semi is being produced and Trucking Industry gets the cost savings, the diesel truck era is over.
It is not like Tesla is going to stop what they do and wait for their 'competitors' to catch up.
Now, this is only small part of what Tesla is made of. Their Software, energy storage and solar are the topic for another posts.
Finally - don't paste your stupid 2018 profitability numbers and try to make those meaningful. Those are irrelevant here.
Smoke and mirrors don't do much anymore. Most do see how bad legacy car manufacturing has become.
I hope this thread will be here in years to come as well as that you will be around. I would like to come back right here and see how things are.
Well, opinions are just like you know what. Everyone has one, and actually nearly every point in your post is simply an opinion. The two main problems with Tesla are price and, contrary to your opinion, quality. And range, although great for an EV, is still a limitation.
I am not going to pay 35k plus for a car that is impractical for a long trip (i.e. to visit my daughter who lives 750 miles away). As for quality, according to consumer reports, predicted reliability for the four Tesla models is 2 models with average, one with worse than average, and another much worse than average. Again, I am not going to pay 35k plus for average, at best, reliability. I would love to have a Tesla, if I had the income for purchasing an expensive toy for my second car.
There is a market for those prices obviously. However, they are certainly not going to replace 20 to 30k priced cars, which is what was being implied by the poster I was replying to. Gasoline models of those makers (the most common by far) are also not limited in range as are Teslas.Meanwhile in California, the Model 3 was the third best-selling car.
Why is price one of the two main problems for Tesla but it's not a problem for Mercedes, Porsche, Lexus, Acura, etc?
Meanwhile in California, the Model 3 was the third best-selling car.
Why is price one of the two main problems for Tesla but it's not a problem for Mercedes, Porsche, Lexus, Acura, etc?
Simple, quality and styling. Teslas have awesome drivetrains and tech but are so plain and boring otherwise. Materials definitely don't seem up to par either. The luxury or near luxury models aren't turning profits based on volume. Teslas is trying to build a Camry/Accord so price is absolutely a huge factor.Meanwhile in California, the Model 3 was the third best-selling car.
Why is price one of the two main problems for Tesla but it's not a problem for Mercedes, Porsche, Lexus, Acura, etc?
Simple, quality and styling. Teslas have awesome drivetrains and tech but are so plain and boring otherwise. Materials definitely don't seem up to par either. The luxury or near luxury models aren't turning profits based on volume. Teslas is trying to build a Camry/Accord so price is absolutely a huge factor.
TCO is less but $25k buys a well equipped Camry with unlimited range. A $35k M3 is a hard sell compared to that IMHO.