Yep, absolutely. The price of being an early adopter is that society in general hasn't got there yet -- much like having a 4k display back before applications could scale properly.
Give it time.
I'm not the one shopping. But for an extra $10k up front it matters. Plus all those apartment dwellers without a place to charge at home (or at work), etc. There's lots of other factors to consider.
IMO Estimated TCO is misleading because depreciation is currently divorced from reality. Tesla Model 3 owners love their cars, so virtually none are available for resale. Year 1 depreciation is in the (mid?) single digits? Which makes absolutely no sense considering you normally lose that much as soon as you drive a new car off the dealership lot.Yes - if you ignore fuel, maintenance, and depreciation, a Camry is cheaper. That's also rather worthless math.
IMO Estimated TCO is misleading because depreciation is currently divorced from reality. Tesla Model 3 owners love their cars, so virtually none are available for resale. Year 1 depreciation is in the (mid?) single digits? Which makes absolutely no sense considering you normally lose that much as soon as you drive a new car off the dealership lot.
But as more Model 3s are built and sold, more will trade hands. Look at Model S and X for more realistic depreciation curves, although those aren't perfect comps to TM3.
Also, at best a base Model 3 is $40k before tax. The average buyer spends even more to get longer range or "FSD" vaporware. Don't fool yourself, but these pricey cars absolutely will depreciate over time more than is currently apparent. The $35k base model is a unicorn, which virtually nobody actually calls up Tesla to order.
Finally, I can avoid the steepest part of the Camry's depreciation curve by buying a 2018 model. In summary, it's far from certain a $50k Model 3 has lower TCO than a $25k new Camry or $19k used Camry. I'd bet on the lightly used Camry.
I hope Tesla does well, but right now they don't have a product that works for me, at any price. Should they ever produce a vehicle that meets my needs, and the ten year cost of ownership works out to near even with an ICE, I'm all in.
I need a pickup, a real pickup. I need an 8' bed, and the ability to install lumber racks and tool boxes. I need to be able to tow 8000 lb regularly. I need a range of 250 miles carrying a regular load of a thousand pounds, when towing, I could get by with 150 mile range. The purchase price would need to be $55k for a 5 year break even over an ICE.What unique needs do you have that are not met by current Tesla product lines?
Really the only valid argument is routine towing and maybe some completely abnormal mileage pattern that is like intermittent long haul trucking.
The reality is that most people, if they are being logical and have data to back up their claims, would be completely fine with something in Tesla's lineup.
I had several years worth of comprehensive daily mileage logs for all my vehicles prior to buying my Model 3. The less obsessive among us have the weakest arguments - Lots of opinion and no real data.
Viper GTS
Bull.
If you actually need to carry more than 4 or 5 people (ie many families), a Model X doesn't cut it. Plus you can't open those stupid doors in a normal garage not to mention it costs 2x a loaded Pilot/Highlander/Atlas/etc.
Besides, money still matters. Does a $35k Tesla do anything better than a $25k Camry for the average person? Simple answer is no because they don't care that it's super fast or is battery powered.
Yea, tell you what. I will come up with the 25k, and you give me the extra 10k to "upgrade" to a Tesla. And even with the extra 10k up front you still have the problem of limited range, even more so in a place like Mn where the weather is cold 5 to 6 months of the year. As for reliability, Camry has a rock solid reputation, while Tesla is average to much worse than average. It will take a *long* time, (if ever) for the fuel savings and supposed lower maintenance to make up for the extra 10k up front.Yes - if you ignore fuel, maintenance, and depreciation, a Camry is cheaper. That's also rather worthless math.
The top 3 problems with a Tesla, or any EV at the moment, are Range, Range, and Range. I want a car that will allow me to visit family and take other trips without worrying about running out of "fuel". My daughter lives 700 miles away, so obviously an EV is a non starter for that. To visit my grandson, who just graduated from college, is about a 200 mile round trip, usually made in one day. *Possibly* doable in a tesla, but pretty much on the edge, especially in the kind of frigid weather we have six months out of the year here in MN.What unique needs do you have that are not met by current Tesla product lines?
Really the only valid argument is routine towing and maybe some completely abnormal mileage pattern that is like intermittent long haul trucking.
The reality is that most people, if they are being logical and have data to back up their claims, would be completely fine with something in Tesla's lineup.
I had several years worth of comprehensive daily mileage logs for all my vehicles prior to buying my Model 3. The less obsessive among us have the weakest arguments - Lots of opinion and no real data.
Viper GTS
My brother came and visited me in his Model 3 about a month ago. It's about a 5-5.5 hour trip. I do the trip about once to twice a quarter for work, so I know the trip very well. I typically spend two 10 minute breaks (using the toll road Oasis) through the whole trip. I don't have to fuel up my truck on the way there, if I leave with a full tank I typically have 100 miles of range left when I get there. It took him much longer because he had to make a few charging stops. On top of that, he had to drive 20 minutes to the nearest supercharger from my house to charge before he could leave, and we used my garage 110V to warm up the frosted car that morning so it didn't affect his range as much to reach that supercharger, as the car was pretty low after arriving and sitting in outdoor public parking for the weekend. Overall we have very different long distance travel styles, so that didn't bother him. To me, that would take far too long.^ what car do you drive now that can do 1000+ on a tank of gasoline? Perhaps, you visit gasoline stations and refuel?
How many trips a year, on average, do you do?
Tesla had addressed this 'fear' years ago with building their supercharger network. Others did not do shit in that regard.
So, yea, if you don't get a Tesla and want to drive an EV, this will be a challenge during your trips.
What a disingenuous argument. Obviously, no vehicle can go 1000 miles on a single tank of gas. (Although a mid-size sedan with a 17 gallon or so tank can easily get 500 miles or more (depending on traffic) between fills.)^ what car do you drive now that can do 1000+ on a tank of gasoline? Perhaps, you visit gasoline stations and refuel?
How many trips a year, on average, do you do?
Tesla had addressed this 'fear' years ago with building their supercharger network. Others did not do shit in that regard.
So, yea, if you don't get a Tesla and want to drive an EV, this will be a challenge during your trips.
That argument can be made both ways. Obviously, filling your tank with gas is a hell of a lot faster than charging batteries, but for most driving situations, plugging it in when you get home and having a full charge the next morning is damn convenient.^ what car do you drive now that can do 1000+ on a tank of gasoline? Perhaps, you visit gasoline stations and refuel?
How many trips a year, on average, do you do?
Tesla had addressed this 'fear' years ago with building their supercharger network. Others did not do shit in that regard.
So, yea, if you don't get a Tesla and want to drive an EV, this will be a challenge during your trips.
The top 3 problems with a Tesla, or any EV at the moment, are Range, Range, and Range. I want a car that will allow me to visit family and take other trips without worrying about running out of "fuel". My daughter lives 700 miles away, so obviously an EV is a non starter for that. To visit my grandson, who just graduated from college, is about a 200 mile round trip, usually made in one day. *Possibly* doable in a tesla, but pretty much on the edge, especially in the kind of frigid weather we have six months out of the year here in MN.
Obviously, we are not ever going to agree on this range ("non")issue. I will point out though, that for long trips, we have at least two drivers. So we rarely stop for 30 minutes to eat. We either bring sandwiches and eat in the car, or go through a fast food drive through, switching drivers when we stop for fast food or for gas. That way, we can be on the road again very quickly in either case. You are also assuming that the fast charging station will not be in use when you arrive, which would increase the layover time.It's basically a non-issue for a Tesla with possible exception of super rural areas. The reality of the 'Oh but I can put 400 miles of range in 2 minutes' argument is that your bladder, your blood sugar levels, and your wakefulness will be limiting factors if you try to burn through multiple tanks of gas in one shot. If you use your battery effectively (let the trip computer put you to a supercharger at ~10% or a bit less) the time you spend walking around, taking a leak, getting coffee, etc will put enough range in the car to get you to your next stop.
I will freely admit that I vastly underestimated the value of the supercharger network prior to my Tesla purchase. My wife was extremely insistent that we needed it and refused to consider any other EV. Turns out she was 100% right. Yes there other fast charge networks but none of them remotely compare to Tesla. And the far bigger issue that I didn't fully appreciate before - Even if the charge network is capable of Tesla like speeds the cars aren't. Unless you have serious money and are rolling in a Taycan it's just not remotely comparable. Before I got my home charger I was routinely doing 500+ MPH charges at my local supercharger (V2). Faster is possible on V3. The only remotely compelling alternatives to a Tesla at normal people prices (Bolt & co) can't touch that at all.
Viper GTS
Obviously, we are not ever going to agree on this range ("non")issue. I will point out though, that for long trips, we have at least two drivers. So we rarely stop for 30 minutes to eat. We either bring sandwiches and eat in the car, or go through a fast food drive through, switching drivers when we stop for fast food or for gas. That way, we can be on the road again very quickly in either case. You are also assuming that the fast charging station will not be in use when you arrive, which would increase the layover time.
I would agree with you that the limitations can be worked around, but I dont understand your reluctance to even admit that it is an issue.
My daughter lives 700 miles away, so obviously an EV is a non starter for that.
First, the 'fast chargers' are really like 10+ per location. In some places (SoCal) they are 40-60. Outside of SoCal on holiday weekends they generally are not very full at all, I have never even had the inconvenience of having to park next to someone at a Supercharger (it reduces the charge rate).
Second, you are wildly overestimating the amount of time needed to charge. The goal is not to charge to 100%, or even 90% - It's just to get enough to get to your next stop. You stay in the fat part of the charging curve and 10-15 minutes adds serious miles.
You make statements like:
But I would not hesitate in the slightest to take a 700 mile trip.
Obviously I don't know where you live, but I do know where I live. So I used this tool:
Draw a circle with a radius on a map
www.mapdevelopers.com
To draw a 700 mile radius around my home (Northern NJ). Chicago is almost exactly 700 miles so we'll use that as my destination even though I'm helping your argument here (can't drive in a straight line). Using A Better Route Planner's default settings for a Model 3 LR (the one you should buy, unless you're a speed junkie) here's what that trip looks like:
View attachment 19636
To me that trip is wildly superior to the alternative with a single 5 minute stop. Unless you are doing this every single day of your life an EV is absolutely fine for this trip. The extra 90 minutes of charging are more than worth the overall experience improvement. And frankly - If you have a daughter that lives 700 miles away you need to think about this - You're too fucking old to be sitting in a car for that long without some breaks. I'm too fucking old as well and I'm not even 40 yet.
I'm not saying that EVs are 100% the answer 100% of the time. Doing that trip in the dead of winter would roughly double the charging time (twice as many stops, similar time each stop due to warm battery - limitation is wh/mi not charge rate). There are circumstances in which the inherent inefficiency of ICE is nice - Nothing like waste heat to melt snow and ice off a car. But -
If you want to have a legitimate argument for this you need to have data. Log every trip you make for a year, then report back. I have my data (and it's a lot - I am a 35,000 mi/year household with only two people). For the ~two days a year that a Tesla would not completely cover my range needs I can rent a car and still come out thousands a year ahead on fuel costs.
At this point even if gas were completely free I would still drive my EV. It's just an incredibly superior experience. Even for driving long distances.
Viper GTS
Well said. I give up trying to reason with Viper though. I want my car to be a tool that I use, not one that I have to plan my life around to use efficiently.Part of this is just your views of a superior experience. 1st, I don’t buy a 70,000$ car that needs an extra 2 hours of stop time in winter to “fuel” in places I don’t want to be. These stops aren’t even on the interstate itself, like oasis or a truck ramp. 2nd, the 70,000$ car still doesn’t have luxuries that I expect a 70,000$ car to have. Until I don’t have to pay maybe more than a 5,000$ difference, I’m not really interested in the interruptions to my life. I can’t charge at home, I’d have to drive 20 minutes each way just to use a super charger. And that’s in a grocery store parking lot of a store I don’t even use. I’m not sure why I would pay 70K for a vehicle that has less luxuries than my 35K vehicle to then need to plan my trips, plan my charging, and refuel half an hour at a time at a store I don’t shop at.