I've had to spend so much time planning my life that I haven't even bought gas since January 1. It's terrible, really.
Well said. I give up trying to reason with Viper though. I want my car to be a tool that I use, not one that I have to plan my life around to use efficiently.
I've had to spend so much time planning my life that I haven't even bought gas since January 1. It's terrible, really.
The car I specified for this trip is $48k. If you can't charge at home and don't have the authority or finances to fix it then you probably shouldn't be buying a $48k car much less a $70k car. Also, here in NJ that's tax free and $5k rebate - But that's not necessary for the math to work.
I'm not at all suggesting that 100% of people would be better served by an EV than their current car. Just that most people, if they had the data and did the spreadsheet, would be far better off financially with an EV than an equivalently priced gas car. For me, for 360+ days a year there is no more planning than remembering to plug it in at night. As long as I do that I'll be fine. Any trip over 200 miles or so the car will get me there I just have to allow a bit more time. A few hours a year.
The relevant question here is how much time would you have to spend getting gas if you left your house every single day with a 3/4 full tank?
Viper GTS
Congrats that you have chargers where you go. There’s no chargers anywhere I shop, all of it would be a special trip. In that regard, I’m not suffering less than 5 minutes every 400 miles. I didn’t pay thousands to install a fueling station in my house either.
Mostly where I go is someplace else and then home, so I generally just charge here. My current charger came with the car, so it was either free or $45k with a free car, depending on how you choose to look at it. I did pay an electrician $150 to install a NEMA 14-50 outlet, so if you want to call it anything it's 150 bucks. I can also now run a proper welder in my garage, so it has more than one purpose anyway. Given how cheap it was and the fact that my main panel is literally on the same wall as my other garage, I'm debating having another one put in over there as well just so I can charge / weld in either location.
You're absolutely right, it doesn't work for everyone (nor does car ownership in general, for that matter - especially in dense metro areas). The point is it would work for most people if they were fully aware of how much they spend on their cars. My Z06 cost me ~66 cents a mile to own/operate. If I put 100k miles on my Model 3 and then push it off a cliff and walk away, I'll be at about 50 cents a mile plus whatever I spend in tires.The 3/4 is not relevant because for a lot of people home charging isn’t an option. Have you seen condos without chargers? Have you seen downtown homes where you can’t install the charger due to permit restrictions? What about our local West Central, where the historic homes go for 400 grand plus but can’t support the 200A panel needed to do at home charging. Do you think everyone wants to live out in the sticks just to have a garage to charge their car? You suggesting it’s an issue of finances is showing just how narrow minded you are about different living situations and life goals. Jesus Christ man.
So here’s my relevant 3/4 tank answer. More than I do fueling my 3/4 full car. Because I would have to de-ice it daily. Not charge it at home. Not charge it at my place of employment. And rather than using the gas station that I can literally pass through an intersection to on the way home, I’d have to go to the north side of town (leaving 20 minutes of range for it), charge, then drive 25 minutes home. OR, drive 10 minutes home, adding 3-5 minutes for gas once every week. I currently fuel up once a week at the gas station I buy my groceries at.
To the last point of it working for most people, absolutely agree it does. If you want an appliance and have the money for the toy, all the power to you. For me, I’m. It dropping that much money on a limited vehicle. If all the car could do is commute without causing me inconvenience, I’d spend 20K on it tops. I have my vehicle that goes where I want, that I don’t wait on, that pulls my small trailer, that carries my stuff. I’m not the super minority. That (and the whole focus of this thread) is why the big 3 ain’t going anywhere right now. Tesla is a great niche, but it doesn’t solve everyone’s problems. The everyone else will be going to regular car makers that make affordable cars for the everyday individual that uses it.
This is unfair to Viper, who is probably as reasonable as the next person in this thread.Well said. I give up trying to reason with Viper though. I want my car to be a tool that I use, not one that I have to plan my life around to use efficiently.
This is highly debatable. You admit you drive a lot of annual miles, so that's part of the equation. Furthermore, just because you have the spreadsheets that show your household is cash flow neutral/positive doesn't extrapolate to "most people." A $5k rebate is fairly significant. Like I said earlier, I'm not convinced that the claim that a Model 3 has lower TCO than a Toyota Camry is provably true.The car I specified for this trip is $48k. If you can't charge at home and don't have the authority or finances to fix it then you probably shouldn't be buying a $48k car much less a $70k car. Also, here in NJ that's tax free and $5k rebate - But that's not necessary for the math to work.
I'm not at all suggesting that 100% of people would be better served by an EV than their current car. Just that most people, if they had the data and did the spreadsheet, would be far better off financially with an EV than an equivalently priced gas car. For me, for 360+ days a year there is no more planning than remembering to plug it in at night. As long as I do that I'll be fine. Any trip over 200 miles or so the car will get me there I just have to allow a bit more time. A few hours a year.
The relevant question here is how much time would you have to spend getting gas if you left your house every single day with a 3/4 full tank?
Viper GTS
This is unfair to Viper, who is probably as reasonable as the next person in this thread.
This is highly debatable. You admit you drive a lot of annual miles, so that's part of the equation. Furthermore, just because you have the spreadsheets that show your household is cash flow neutral/positive doesn't extrapolate to "most people." A $5k rebate is fairly significant. Like I said earlier, I'm not convinced that the claim that a Model 3 has lower TCO than a Toyota Camry is provably true.
Yep, $5k to $8k certainly changes the math quite a bit.The Model 3 is Cheaper to Own Than a Toyota Camry
The long-range Model 3’s sticker price is $44,500, roughly 85% higher than that of a Toyota Camry; yet, ARK’s research shows that the Model 3 could be...ark-invest.comTotal Cost Of Ownership: Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry & Audi A5
To regular readers of this column, it will be no surprise that Tesla’s Model 3 is cheaper on a total cost of ownership basis than competing luxury sedans from BMW and Mercedes, but a Toyota Camry? Model 3 is a state-of-the-art electric vehicle with a 5-star safety rating and a driving experience...cleantechnica.com
From what I have seen, the TCO articles do not generally factor in state incentives. In NJ, state incentives saved me ~$8k which further drives the math in favor of EVs.
Nobody knows yet what Model 3's will depreciate to -- I bought new because a 2018 with ~35k miles on it was about $5k cheaper than a new one, and I'd lose the $5k rebate (still no sales tax though, which helps).Yep, $5k to $8k certainly changes the math quite a bit.
So I just glanced at the CleanTechnica article, and I call bullshit on the analysis by Loup Ventures.
It's claiming 5 year maintenance/repairs on a Toyota Camry are $4k? That seems high (but I'd have to do some math).
More importantly, the depreciation figures are highly questionable.
A Model 3 SR+ depreciated from $39k to $19k? It's difficult to say, but that's reasonable. I might argue that the residual value could be even better (say low $20k's).
But the Camry LE has gone from $24.6k to $9k? That's just laughably wrong IMO.
Yes, if the analyst who makes this TCO model cooks up questionable numbers, the TM3 will come out just ahead of a Camry LE.
I didn't look at the other URL because ARK Investment are probably the biggest TSLA bulls in the world. I might as well believe everything Elon says if I want to follow a biased source.
EDIT:
Here's Edmunds' figures. I still find it hard to believe a typical new Camry has $4k of maintenance/repairs in the first 5 years. Edmunds has way different depreciation for the $27k Camry SE.
https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/camry/2020/cost-to-own/
Part of this is just your views of a superior experience. 1st, I don’t buy a 70,000$ car that needs an extra 2 hours of stop time in winter to “fuel” in places I don’t want to be. These stops aren’t even on the interstate itself, like oasis or a truck ramp. 2nd, the 70,000$ car still doesn’t have luxuries that I expect a 70,000$ car to have. Until I don’t have to pay maybe more than a 5,000$ difference, I’m not really interested in the interruptions to my life. I can’t charge at home, I’d have to drive 20 minutes each way just to use a super charger. And that’s in a grocery store parking lot of a store I don’t even use. I’m not sure why I would pay 70K for a vehicle that has less luxuries than my 35K vehicle to then need to plan my trips, plan my charging, and refuel half an hour at a time at a store I don’t shop at.
No. I don't think we are on the same planes of existence really.
First of all, you don't have to drop 70K on a Tesla car. Secondly, luxuries are relative. Really. For you, I suspect, it is animal leather seats (btw, see how leather gets produced), flashy ipad like screens and lots of knobs.
For me, the luxury is clean air for all of us. Just look at how shutdown has cleaned up the air everywhere. I get it, you don't care but many others do.
I want instant torque at any RPM, no transmission, etc. I am sure you get it.
For me and many others going to gasoline station and fill up a gas is a morbid experience.
Many, many people drive less than 30 miles a day in the us of a. All of the "inconveniences" you mentioned don't apply.
You only see what you want to see.
I think the difference is I see a relevance to other makers outside of Tesla existing. Which seems to be something this thread has a problem with given the title. I have no issues with people buying them, and I think they deserve to be on the market. You're more than free to point out, given that live and let live attitude, where I've chosen to narrow my vision. My original claim is clear: there will not be a death of the legacy automakers, Tesla does not provide something to cover everyone, as I am one of the people living in that bubble. That point of view does not exclude those living outside that bubble, it means they have both options. It means living in the bubble, I don't have both options.That goes for you as well, my friend.
I think the difference is I see a relevance to other makers outside of Tesla existing. Which seems to be something this thread has a problem with given the title. I have no issues with people buying them, and I think they deserve to be on the market. You're more than free to point out, given that live and let live attitude, where I've chosen to narrow my vision. My original claim is clear: there will not be a death of the legacy automakers, Tesla does not provide something to cover everyone, as I am one of the people living in that bubble. That point of view does not exclude those living outside that bubble, it means they have both options. It means living in the bubble, I don't have both options.
Like I said, accurate figures matter. I referenced Edmunds TCO, which IMO is better than whatever numbers Loup Ventures cooked up to be able to say "Model 3 TCO is lower than a Camry." I'm asserting that $9k RV from an original $25k Camry LE IS incorrect (36%), although the degree is certainly debatable. Edmunds has 5 year residual value at about 56%.Nobody knows yet what Model 3's will depreciate to -- I bought new because a 2018 with ~35k miles on it was about $5k cheaper than a new one, and I'd lose the $5k rebate (still no sales tax though, which helps).
If they're factoring trade-in values, $9k probably isn't that far off...here's a one owner 2017 Camry LE with under 45k miles on it for 12.5k at a dealer: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inven...elper.selectedEntity=c25976#listing=255628143 ($23k base price, if a quick Google is to be believed).
The cheapest used Model 3 (without wreck/salvage/lemon history - same criteria as the Camry) is a 2018 LR RWD with 43.5k for $37.5k, and that car stickered for $44.5k new.
The place I currently live, I rent. I live in the number 1 housing market in the nation (no lie, you can look it up). Homes are on the market for a few hours to maybe a few days. We moved here thinking it would be temporary before building, but building last year fell through with wait times with builders that we wanted to use over a year. I asked the place we live about installing a charger outlet because there is room in the panel, but that is apparently an option they are holding onto. From what I understood from the maintenance crew, power distribution seemed to be a factor. It's brand new construction (moved in last year, one month after permits were finally signed off on), but the panels don't have a main breaker in them. I'm not huge on A/C wiring, so I'm not sure what the issue is.You are fundamentally doing EV wrong if you rely on superchargers.
I don't recall if you've mentioned yet, what exactly makes home charging impossible for you? With relatively minor electrical upgrades most people should be able to. Newer home construction is frequently mandated to have EV capability, so this will become less of an issue as old housing stock is upgraded/replaced. In my case I needed a panel upgrade because I used all my open space installing geothermal and a dedicated 30A outlet for my rack of IT gear. So I spent a few thousand dollars doing that and running the hardwire through the wall. $700 for the ChargePoint Home Flex. Had I not converted my home from oil to geothermal the panel upgrade wouldn't have been necessary.
There are some living situations where it won't work easily. We need tax incentives if not flat out mandates to push EV adoption to lower income brackets that are in apartments, condos, etc where the people living in the property don't control the physical attributes of that space. It's absolutely ridiculous that a household like mine with two high incomes can heat and cool the house for $700/year and drive for $0.025/mile in fuel cost where the rest of the population is forced to pay multiples of that. Energy efficiency upgrades should be mandated for all rental properties so that the working poor can participate in some of the wonders of modern technology.
If you are talking about buying $70,000 cars I'm going to assume income isn't your problem though.
Viper GTS
Nobody is suggesting that they should die. I want them all to survive ideally. The existential danger for any company that hasn't already done substantial EV work is that we are approaching cost parity - Rumor is Tesla will announce $100/kwh battery packs next month. If they don't do it then we know it's coming. We are very, very near the point where all the cost arguments against EVs are going to evaporate. They'll be cost parity to buy (and trending cheaper) and potentially an order of magnitude cheaper to operate. The more EVs out there the more people get converted (seriously it took just a single drive in a Bolt to convert me).
Every manufacturer needs to get on board with this because they are going to be obsoleted nearly overnight if they do not. Tesla cannot hope to make enough cars to meet world demand, so we need every manufacturer making stuff across every segment so that everyone can get what they want.
Viper GTS
So here's a question for you, is your goal to basically say that: It doesn't matter what losses people have to take, we should all drive electric for the cleaner air. If it is, I'm mostly with you, I just believe that individuals shouldn't have to cover the costs.
I think I had mentioned that before, unfortunately it does not seem to stick - We already pay the costs of gasoline use. We subsidize it with our money, Wikipedia says ~4B per year. We pay with deaths and other healthcare costs to live with gasoline/diesel pollution.
So, again. Let's even the playground here. If we subsidize EV development and clean energy with 50% of gasoline/diesel subsidies, it'd look much better and it'd happen very soon.
Your "costs" argument is flawed.
Everything has a pollution argument. Battery manufacture is not a very clean process either. Nor is the energy necessary to gather some of these required parts. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact
Realize that humans "living" on a planet in their cushy vehicles consuming energy tends to have a detrimental effect on the planet that we have yet to wrangle.
Your "costs" argument is highly incomplete. We'll find out as we move further into electric vehicles without building new nuke plants (because so many countries are dragging their feet) which will require increased natural gas and coal mining to feed. Will it be net cleaner to the air due to efficiencies of scale? Absolutely. Will we start seeing increased pollution in other sources? Absolutely.
You also didn't answer the other question. You also didn't acknowledge how you royally screwed up trying to guess my desires in a vehicle. So you're not really arguing, you're just wanting to throw poo at the wall and see what sticks.
I absolutely do not want Tesla to buy any of the failing or failed automakers. I'm saying that as TSLA shareholder. Legacy automakers dug their own grave and they have no interest in getting out. So why help them out? They're only interested in digging themselves further in the hole. Let these companies fail. Chinese will buy them up as they ramp their EV program.
We shall see in 2030 when TSLA is the largest auto company in the world and also one of the most valuable. We shall see how many of the legacy companies survived and in what form.They aren't going to fail. When this hits a tipping point where nobody wants ICE any more any manufacturer who doesn't have an independent EV platform/program in place will pair up with others who do. Having a handful of overall architectures is a vastly superior outcome to having dozens, so this is good IMO.
Viper GTS