Legacy automakers death watch thread

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Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
21,855
6,237
136
There are lots of other options than what are presented in that video. There are plenty of sedans and compact crossovers in the mid 20 to 30k range. Still a lot of money, but better than the loaded behemoths in the video. Auto makers *have* pushed up the market with SUVs and crossovers instead of wagons and hatchbacks though. The one thing that could really crash the auto market is a major spike in fuel prices, especially for makers like Ford that will no longer be selling sedans in the US.

If one shops carefully, new cars can actually offer a lot of features for the price, and cars last a lot longer than they used to.There is always the 1-3 year old used/lease return market.
They make what sells. Sadly, what sells is enormous. It doesn't really matter what it is, as long as it's huge with buttons and flashing lights.
A fellow I know just bought a new pickup, I counted 22 buttons on the steering wheel.
 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
3,999
63
91
The way things are going I'd expect that the auto industry will simply exhaust the borrowing capacity of consumers before oil prices hit their increasingly War Rig like product lines. Especially if there is any sort of general economic downturn.

Amen on the off lease vehicle market. Paid 30% of new sticker price for a 3 year old vehicle with under 20k miles loaded with every option they offered.

Depending on the vehicle, 30% isn’t really that good when someone else already enjoyed the issue free maintenance free life out of it. An SUV or pickup, it’s an ok deal. If it was anything with a 4cyl, no matter how basic or how loaded, that’s a bad deal. You can’t throw a rock without hitting a boring 4 banger sedan. They are a dime a dozen, and their residual value typically reflects that. A full 3 years later it should be 50% or more lost value. Mileage isn’t the enemy of modern vehicles, time is.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,524
44,074
136
Depending on the vehicle, 30% isn’t really that good when someone else already enjoyed the issue free maintenance free life out of it. An SUV or pickup, it’s an ok deal. If it was anything with a 4cyl, no matter how basic or how loaded, that’s a bad deal. You can’t throw a rock without hitting a boring 4 banger sedan. They are a dime a dozen, and their residual value typically reflects that. A full 3 years later it should be 50% or more lost value. Mileage isn’t the enemy of modern vehicles, time is.

30% OF sticker not 30% off sticker. Lol, I’ve had new cars with more problems than this. The model year has no major issues, it’s under warranty still till 2021, and the most expensive component warrantied till 2026.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
There are lots of other options than what are presented in that video. There are plenty of sedans and compact crossovers in the mid 20 to 30k range. Still a lot of money, but better than the loaded behemoths in the video. Auto makers *have* pushed up the market with SUVs and crossovers instead of wagons and hatchbacks though. The one thing that could really crash the auto market is a major spike in fuel prices, especially for makers like Ford that will no longer be selling sedans in the US.


If one shops carefully, new cars can actually offer a lot of features for the price, and cars last a lot longer than they used to.There is always the 1-3 year old used/lease return market.


Not sure if you've heard, but Ford is ending all passenger cars other than the Mustang. GM is not far behind. No idea what Dodge has planned. The market isn't super happy with Ford at the moment.

Used can be good, but of course is more of a crap shoot. Even a relatively solid model can have hidden damage or issues.

Everything looks a bit fragile right now. It's going to be an odd lineup once the last cars are gone from the dealers. It kinda seems senseless to me, sure they don't need to run a bunch of different lines of vehicles, but surely they could replatform the Mustang chassis into a reasonable affordable car. By sticking with lower output motor options and not having to do a convertible or manual model, a reasonably affordable sedan could be generated.

God knows they need some luck, because all their balls are still up in the air, they have pivoted to a much more expensive overall lineup sans Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, Taurus, so if the economy takes a bit of a dump like I am seeing signs of, then we're going to see go the Hindenburg style end.

 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
3,999
63
91
30% OF sticker not 30% off sticker. Lol, I’ve had new cars with more problems than this. The model year has no major issues, it’s under warranty still till 2021, and the most expensive component warrantied till 2026.

I misread and that makes more sense. Must be closer to what I said, a really boring 4 banger. Is it a Hyundai or something? Not many makers do 10 year OEM warranties. Unless it’s one of those 3rd party crap shoot extended warranties.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,524
44,074
136
I misread and that makes more sense. Must be closer to what I said, a really boring 4 banger. Is it a Hyundai or something? Not many makers do 10 year OEM warranties. Unless it’s one of those 3rd party crap shoot extended warranties.

It’s a BMW. Factory warranty and bought as CPO.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
It probably won't happen for another 5-7 years but soon, used ICE vehicle values are going to plummet and people will be afraid to buy new ICE vehicles in fear they won't be able to sell it or get very much for it. Because the demand for ICE vehicles are going to drop off the cliff, and people will only want BEV.
 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
3,999
63
91
It probably won't happen for another 5-7 years but soon, used ICE vehicle values are going to plummet and people will be afraid to buy new ICE vehicles in fear they won't be able to sell it or get very much for it. Because the demand for ICE vehicles are going to drop off the cliff, and people will only want BEV.

Probably on the basic commuter market, but that’s it. We won’t be close to that in the SUV or Truck market. That will be entirely dependent on 300mile+ range less than 25K new electric commuter grade cars coming in the market.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
You got a good deal, never seen a 3 year old BMW with less than 20K go that low, and I’ve been in their market for years.
They're giving away the i3. Same with GM giving away the Bolt. No demand for any BEV other than Tesla atm.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
I really hope battery tech takes off with one the various 'next gen' types. They need to be less toxic, easy to swap, and charge in ten minutes or less for a reasonable range (200+ miles of mixed driving with accessories). I think it's doable, or even far beyond, it just needs to become affordable to create. Carbon nanotube, graphene, etc, lots of nascent materials which could revolutionize energy storage and thus transport at large.

It would enable loads of other cool things if we got a massive uplift in battery tech. Drones that could stay up for hours or days at a time with modest batteries, industrial laptops and field communication equipment for oil fields, gas exploration, and military roles that could last for a week or more on a single charge, and of course a knock on effect with electric vehicles.

More efficient batteries could split the difference in displacement, gaining additional range while also taking up less volume in the car, and being considerably lighter even if the new design weighs roughly the same per cubic cm. The lighter vehicle would thus have more space for other functions, the vehicle would be lighter and more efficient, and so on.
 

ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
3,256
1,661
136
Not sure if you've heard, but Ford is ending all passenger cars other than the Mustang. GM is not far behind. No idea what Dodge has planned. The market isn't super happy with Ford at the moment.

Used can be good, but of course is more of a crap shoot. Even a relatively solid model can have hidden damage or issues.

Everything looks a bit fragile right now. It's going to be an odd lineup once the last cars are gone from the dealers. It kinda seems senseless to me, sure they don't need to run a bunch of different lines of vehicles, but surely they could replatform the Mustang chassis into a reasonable affordable car. By sticking with lower output motor options and not having to do a convertible or manual model, a reasonably affordable sedan could be generated.

God knows they need some luck, because all their balls are still up in the air, they have pivoted to a much more expensive overall lineup sans Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, Taurus, so if the economy takes a bit of a dump like I am seeing signs of, then we're going to see go the Hindenburg style end.

Too bad, especially because Ford made some very nice sedans, notably the Fusion and Focus. Unfortunately for them, the Fusion was not very fuel efficient, and the Focus got a bad rap because of the dual clutch transmission problems.
 
Reactions: Arkaign

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,524
44,074
136
Too bad, especially because Ford made some very nice sedans, notably the Fusion and Focus. Unfortunately for them, the Fusion was not very fuel efficient, and the Focus got a bad rap because of the dual clutch transmission problems.

I love the Fusion hybrids as rental cars. They are slowly coming out of fleets as they age however.
 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
3,999
63
91
They're giving away the i3. Same with GM giving away the Bolt. No demand for any BEV other than Tesla atm.

It’s a sign of the inability to create something for the market. Compact SUVs sell great because that’s what in style. All of the electric ones sacrifice too many of the SUV qualities to make it an SUV. Tesla doesn’t make one because they would be terrible at it, because the technology isn’t there to make a great one in the price bracket that market exists in.

Tesla doesn’t just do great because of their tech, they do great by refusing to compete in markets they would absolutely fail in. That includes

1. Space constrained compact SUV
2. Sub 20K cars
3. Stronger SUVs capable of towing for at least 300 miles between charges
4. Mid size or half ton pickups

It’s easy to be amazing when you don’t apply yourself to segments in which you have the potential to fail. Cornering the market for years where people have disposable income for 70K plus all electric low range cars, and homes that can support 240V chargers is not the every day market in the slightest.

All of Tesla’s vehicles together sold less than one single model line of any of the big 3 or sedans sold by the American imports. It doesn’t matter that they are disruptive in their field, they obviously fail the average American. A lot of people can see that.
 

ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
3,256
1,661
136
They're giving away the i3. Same with GM giving away the Bolt. No demand for any BEV other than Tesla atm.
BEV = battery electric vehicle??.
I would love to have an electric, but just cant accept the range limitations, since I only have one vehicle in the family. If they were cheap, that would be one thing, but they are still expensive as well as having a limited range.

Edit: It is even worse for me, because I live in a cold climate where it is freezing or below for about 6 months of the year, exacerbating the range limitation. Very good chance I will look for a hybrid if I ever buy another new car though.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
Well, if Ford buys the farm in a ludicrously self-inflicted doomsday scenario should the economy bend into recession this year, then perhaps Musk can buy up the remains and create a mass market company in his streamlined thought process and make a better, more rational FoMoCo.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
It’s a sign of the inability to create something for the market. Compact SUVs sell great because that’s what in style. All of the electric ones sacrifice too many of the SUV qualities to make it an SUV. Tesla doesn’t make one because they would be terrible at it, because the technology isn’t there to make a great one in the price bracket that market exists in.

Tesla doesn’t just do great because of their tech, they do great by refusing to compete in markets they would absolutely fail in. That includes

1. Space constrained compact SUV
2. Sub 20K cars
3. Stronger SUVs capable of towing for at least 300 miles between charges
4. Mid size or half ton pickups

It’s easy to be amazing when you don’t apply yourself to segments in which you have the potential to fail. Cornering the market for years where people have disposable income for 70K plus all electric low range cars, and homes that can support 240V chargers is not the every day market in the slightest.

All of Tesla’s vehicles together sold less than one single model line of any of the big 3 or sedans sold by the American imports. It doesn’t matter that they are disruptive in their field, they obviously fail the average American. A lot of people can see that.
lol. . And people think I'm crazy.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,524
44,074
136
BEV = battery electric vehicle??.
I would love to have an electric, but just cant accept the range limitations, since I only have one vehicle in the family. If they were cheap, that would be one thing, but they are still expensive as well as having a limited range.

Edit: It is even worse for me, because I live in a cold climate where it is freezing or below for about 6 months of the year, exacerbating the range limitation. Very good chance I will look for a hybrid if I ever buy another new car though.

Most of them have the range extender.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
Well, if Ford buys the farm in a ludicrously self-inflicted doomsday scenario should the economy bend into recession this year, then perhaps Musk can buy up the remains and create a mass market company in his streamlined thought process and make a better, more rational FoMoCo.
I hope he lets all of them fail. Buying any of them will be a huge mistake.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
If the Model 3 ever becomes widely available with no markups, I could see it becoming much more common a sight on the roads. Seems like it was a tough go getting that thing to meet timetables.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
If the Model 3 ever becomes widely available with no markups, I could see it becoming much more common a sight on the roads. Seems like it was a tough go getting that thing to meet timetables.
Battery costs are going down every year and batteries and techs are only getting better. In couple years, BEV will be much cheaper to make than ICE vehicles. I suspect really cheap BEV will be made for world market at Shanghai Gigafactory by Tesla China team. Think of it as Model 2 and sub $25k car. It'll happen.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
I hope he lets all of them fail. Buying any of them will be a huge mistake.

If it included all the legacy nonsense that would be true I think. The long time combo of greedy executives and the slavery to next week's stock price vs a long term ethic of common sense and balance has left the three of them looking pretty stupid compared to the Asian brands in particular.

However, Tesla gaining absolutely insane levels of business networks, patents, engineers, etc etc could turn Musk into a gazillionaire if he played it right.

A focused, efficient automaker that only made about 5 models in total, but iterated in modular design to allow for greater flexibility and service, and revolutionary affordable EVs based on Tesla tech married to mass market affordable distribution to thousands of dealers and service partners, with none of the baggage of the bad old days, could be a potent partner for Tesla, which could remain the flagship/luxury/icon brand.
 
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