NHL playoff predictions

[wyvrn]

Broduer and Roy are better than Turco.

Not this year they aren't. And this year is what counts.

How many Stanley Cups has Turco won? Zero. Wait until he wins 16 games in the playoffs before you anoint him the greatest goalie in the playoffs.

Eddie Belfor has won a championship (or is it two?). Using JUST that reasoning, Eddie is a better goalie than Turco. However Turco replaced Eddie in Dallas and has had a better year, which is undeniable. Players age and gradually lose their skills. Who says that will not happen to Brodeur and Roy this year? I never annointed him best goalie in the playoffs, I said he was the best goalie of the playoff teams (meaning those that qualified for the post season). We cannot say whether Turco will be the best, second best, or worst because we simply have no data.

Uhm, OK. Do you think that your view is just SLIGHTLY biased? Turco had a great regular season, but has proved NOTHING in the playoffs

He doesn't have a lot of playoff experience. That does not prove he will suck in the playoffs. One does not prove the other.

You could say almost all the same things about Auld. You would argue that Auld hasn't played many games at all, so his stats mean jack. Well, same with Turco. Stats mean jack when it comes to the playoffs.

This is simple. The NHL does not consider 7 games enough when it writes the record books. There is a minimum games played specification. Therefore, we will not consider 7 games either!

So? They both had excellent years and both fell flat on their faces once the playoffs began. Anyone remember Jim Carey?

I disagree. While some names of goalies that were good in season, bad in playoffs have been mentioned, this does not hold true OVERALL. If you study history, performance in regular season and career performance are good indicators of playoff performance. Just because a couple of good regular season goalies tanked in the playoffs does NOT negate this theory, because there are always a few outliers in statistics. In other words, the chances of Turco sucking in the playoffs is really small. Fans of other teams are hoping Turco sucks, because if he plays this way in the playoffs, they don't stand a chance in hell of winning.



edit: edited for clarity

 

[Aquaman]

I predict wyvrn's head will explode if Turco sucks in the playoffs

I kid I Kid

Cheers,
Aquaman

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: ThaGrandCow
I predict that I won't watch any of it.

I give it 1000000-1 odds.

Your loss.

 

[Garet Jax]

Any way it goes, I am looking forward to the playoffs this year. I think the two best series will be Toronto-Philly and Blues-Canucks. Can't wait.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: wyvrn

Broduer and Roy are better than Turco.

Not this year they aren't. And this year is what counts.

Just keep telling yourself that. Turco saw about 14 shots a game this year. Dallas's D is a BIG part of the success that Turco enjoyed this season.

How many Stanley Cups has Turco won? Zero. Wait until he wins 16 games in the playoffs before you anoint him the greatest goalie in the playoffs.

Eddie Belfor has won a championship (or is it two?). Using JUST that reasoning, Eddie is a better goalie than Turco. However Turco replaced Eddie in Dallas and has had a better year, which is undeniable. Players age and gradually lose their skills. Who says that will not happen to Brodeur and Roy this year? I never annointed him best goalie in the playoffs, I said he was the best goalie of the playoff teams (meaning those that qualified for the post season). We cannot say whether Turco will be the best, second best, or worst because we simply have no data.

Belfour won a Stanley Cup after MANY YEARS OF TRYING. I am not denying that Turco had a good year.

 

[silverpig]

Originally posted by: wyvrn

You could say almost all the same things about Auld. You would argue that Auld hasn't played many games at all, so his stats mean jack. Well, same with Turco. Stats mean jack when it comes to the playoffs.

This is simple. The NHL does not consider 7 games enough when it writes the record books. There is a minimum games played specification. Therefore, we will not consider 7 games either!

This is exactly my point. You can't call Auld a great goalie because he has only played 7 games, just as you can't call Turco the best playoff goalie for this year because of his limited playoff experience.

 

[rh71]

Originally posted by: mpitts

Originally posted by: jaeger66

Originally posted by: wyvrn


Did Turek or Cechmanek break the NHL record for goals against average in their first year as a full-time starter?

So? They both had excellent years and both fell flat on their faces once the playoffs began. Anyone remember Jim Carey?

Sure. Won the Vezina, bombed in the playoffs, fell of the face of the earth.

Ahh Jim Carey... the Capitals' Vezina Trophy winner... I live on Long Island and saw his NHL debut against the Islanders... man was he amazing... BUT:

All you had to do was shoot stick side and he's toast... cause the guy had an amazing glove, but not much else... a little bit of scouting before playoffs started went a long way... to end one man's career.

 

[wyvrn]

ROFL. I am just trying to be a voice of reason for the NHL pundit's on this board. I have already admitted I am not an NHL genius, but I hear flawed arguments used on sports talk radio being echoed here and I wanted to take a shot at playing devil's advocate.

Originally posted by: Aquaman
I predict wyvrn's head will explode if Turco sucks in the playoffs

I kid I Kid

Cheers,
Aquaman

You obviously did not read my earlier reply. I NEVER said Turco was the best playoff goalie. I said he was the best goalie of the teams that are in the playoffs. I even went into detail about how because of his lack of experience in the playoffs, one cannot possibly KNOW how good he will be either way. We can, however, predict his performance using past information about goalies. I believe, and have stated here already, that in the past, most good regular season goalies went on to have solid playoff appearances. I also noted that there are some exceptions, but the few exceptions do not overwhelm the overall trend. So far, nobody has adequately countered this argument. Including yourself, senor!

This is exactly my point. You can't call Auld a great goalie because he has only played 7 games, just as you can't call Turco the best playoff goalie for this year because of his limited playoff experience.

That is a good point. I think this argument can be made either way, so I will leave it alone and acknowledge you may be correct. The great thing is, that's why they play the games

Just keep telling yourself that. Turco saw about 14 shots a game this year. Dallas's D is a BIG part of the success that Turco enjoyed this season.

Everyone enjoy the playoffs, and may the truly best team win it all!

 

[Wingznut]

Eastern Conference

• Ottawa over NY in 4 -- Speed kills.
• New Jersey over Boston in 5 -- Boston just doesn't have the talent to keep up.
• Washington over Tampa Bay in 7 -- Khabibulin will do his best to keep the 'Ning in it, but the Caps will do enough to pull out a close series.
• Toronto over Philadelphia in 7 -- Eddie Belfour will stone the Flyers. Maybe the Flyers need yet ANOTHER average power forward/bruiser.

Western Conference

• Dallas over Edmonton in 6 -- Somehow the Oilers will manage to steal a couple of games.
• Detroit over Anaheim in 4 -- The Ducks have made the playoffs twice in their short history. Both times they faced the Wings in round one, and both times they were swept. This year will be no different.
• Colorado over Minnesota in 7 -- The Wild was the one team that nobody wanted to play. They have a "nothing to lose" attitude, but don't have the playoff experience to beat the Avs.
• Vancouver over St. Louis in 5 -- The Blues could very well be the most overrated team in the playoffs. As much as I like Ozzie, he's just not a good fit there.

The Red Wings will win it all!!! All this crap about CuJo not being good enough, is just that... Crap. They've won three Cups in the last six years with three different goalies. And you'll never convince me that CuJo isn't better than Vernon or Ozzie. They don't need the best goalie in the leage to win... Just a goalie that might steal one or two games, and won't LOSE games for them.

Look at their defense... Lidstrom/Dandenault and Chelios/Schneider are two of the best defensive pairings in the league! If Jiri Fischer comes back, they'll pair him with Jason Wooley and have THREE awesome defensive lines!


Oh, and btw... There is more to being a goalie than GAA.

 

[jaeger66]

Originally posted by: Wingznut



Oh, and btw... There is more to being a goalie than GAA.

Yup. GAA is largely a team stat, as opposed to save %.

 

[wyvrn]

I don't believe it's that way. Take away Turco, and given the exact same defense, Tugnut gave away more goals. Defense play undoubtedly helps the goalie. But when you see such a recognizable difference in results, given only one change (ie: the goalie himself), then it is weak sauce to say that the defense has more to do with the outcome. Now, if Turco didn't miss any games, and one or two of Dallas key defensemen missed games which resulted in a higher goals against average, I would agree with you. But that is not the case here. Therefore it's easy for me to support my argument that GAA has a lot to do with the goalie.

Noone else here has offered any sort of evidence elsewise. Merely making a well-constructed statement does not mean it is true. In other words, prove it or you have little credibility in my eyes.

Originally posted by: jaeger66

Originally posted by: Wingznut



Oh, and btw... There is more to being a goalie than GAA.

Yup. GAA is largely a team stat, as opposed to save %.

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: Wingznut
Eastern ConferenceThe Red Wings will win it all!!! All this crap about CuJo not being good enough, is just that... Crap. They've won three Cups in the last six years with three different goalies. And you'll never convince me that CuJo isn't better than Vernon or Ozzie. They don't need the best goalie in the leage to win... Just a goalie that might steal one or two games, and won't LOSE games for them.

Look at their defense... Lidstrom/Dandenault and Chelios/Schneider are two of the best defensive pairings in the league! If Jiri Fischer comes back, they'll pair him with Jason Wooley and have THREE awesome defensive lines!

I think Cujo is a great goalie.... at times. At times Cujo is amazing. He will steal games. At other times, he is very weak and he will give games away. The best example of this was the first Olympic game against Sweden. He was shelled for 5 goals by a good swedish team. I am a huge Toronto fan and I like Cujo as a person, but I never thought Toronto had a chance with him in net!

I think we have a better chance with Eddie the Eagle in net. He is less streaky. His upside is less, but so is his downside.

In my opinion, Cujo had a disappointing season with the second best set of defensivemen in the league (only Colorado's is better) in front of him.

Detroit definitely has a chance to win it, but Cujo will have to have a long hot streak (or very short cold streaks) and the Detroit forwards will have to pinch in defensively (much like the Dallas forwards do).

 

[Wingznut]

Like I said, there's more to being a goalie than GAA.

Roloson had a better GAA (and SV %) than Brodeur. But I'd hardly consider him a better goalie.

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: wyvrn
I don't believe it's that way. Take away Turco, and given the exact same defense, Tugnut gave away more goals. Defense play undoubtedly helps the goalie. But when you see such a recognizable difference in results, given only one change (ie: the goalie himself), then it is weak sauce to say that the defense has more to do with the outcome. Now, if Turco didn't miss any games, and one or two of Dallas key defensemen missed games which resulted in a higher goals against average, I would agree with you. But that is not the case here. Therefore it's easy for me to support my argument that GAA has a lot to do with the goalie.

Noone else here has offered any sort of evidence elsewise. Merely making a well-constructed statement does not mean it is true. In other words, prove it or you have little credibility in my eyes.

The only proof will come with the playoff games. Turco is a great goalie and is definitely better than Tugnutt. In fact, he probably played better than any other goalie would have given the same opportunity in Dallas. And I mean anyone Roy, Brodeur, Cujo....

I think the reason is that he is young and wanted to prove himself night in and night out. If Roy got shelled one night for 5 goals, no one would question him and his ability. If Turco got shelled one night then the coaching staff may have started to question things especially if it happened a few times. At the start of the season, there was a lot of talk about who Dallas' starter would be. If Turco faltered, Tugnutt would have been the guy.

Having said all that, playoffs are a different style of hockey. Every round, the teams get better and better and the competition stiffer and stiffer. Even if he does well against Edmonton, he may still struggle against a Detroit or a Colorado or even a Vancouver or a St. Louis. Not because he isn't a capable goalie, but because he is still learning how to play playoff hockey.

All of what I said is conjecture. The only proof will be in the playoff games. I wouldn't be surprised if Turco steps up to the plate and leads his team to the Stanley Cup. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas is knocked out in the second or third round. It could go either way.

 

[wyvrn]

I never said there wasn't. I just stated, and backed up with a real world example, why GAA is an important stat that the goalies do have direct influence over.

I will not counter your statement about Roloson or Brodeur because I have seen Brodeur limited times and Roloson probably none. As stated, I'm not an NHL guy. Which is why I find it humorous that I can easily counter statements about hockey in this thread using a simple real world example and get squat as far as a rebuttal.

Originally posted by: Wingznut
Like I said, there's more to being a goalie than GAA.

Roloson had a better GAA (and SV %) than Brodeur. But I'd hardly consider him a better goalie.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: wyvrn
I never said there wasn't. I just stated, and backed up with a real world example, why GAA is an important stat that the goalies do have direct influence over.

I will not counter your statement about Roloson or Brodeur because I have seen Brodeur limited times and Roloson probably none. As stated, I'm not an NHL guy. Which is why I find it humorous that I can easily counter statements about hockey in this thread using a simple real world example and get squat as far as a rebuttal.

Originally posted by: Wingznut
Like I said, there's more to being a goalie than GAA.

Roloson had a better GAA (and SV %) than Brodeur. But I'd hardly consider him a better goalie.

How much hockey have you acutally watched this year?

 

[wyvrn]

The only proof will come with the playoff games. Turco is a great goalie and is definitely better than Tugnutt. In fact, he probably played better than any other goalie would have given the same opportunity in Dallas. And I mean anyone Roy, Brodeur, Cujo....

I agree and think that's a reasonable conclusion, unlike some others posited here so far.

I think the reason is that he is young and wanted to prove himself night in and night out. If Roy got shelled one night for 5 goals, no one would question him and his ability. If Turco got shelled one night then the coaching staff may have started to question things especially if it happened a few times. At the start of the season, there was a lot of talk about who Dallas' starter would be. If Turco faltered, Tugnutt would have been the guy.

Having said all that, playoffs are a different style of hockey. Every round, the teams get better and better and the competition stiffer and stiffer. Even if he does well against Edmonton, he may still struggle against a Detroit or a Colorado or even a Vancouver or a St. Louis. Not because he isn't a capable goalie, but because he is still learning how to play playoff hockey.

All of what I said is conjecture. The only proof will be in the playoff games. I wouldn't be surprised if Turco steps up to the plate and leads his team to the Stanley Cup. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas is knocked out in the second or third round. It could go either way.

Basically you are saying it could go either way with Turco. I also think that is a reasonable argument. Honestly I tend to doubt younger guys in the playoffs, but do not rule them out completely. They just have to prove it to me I also think that given Turco's history since college, he will rise to the occasion. But that conclusion is merely conjecture, albeit an educated one.

Let the games begin.

 

[wyvrn]

Probably 20 full games. I watch a lot of Dallas, but also watch other games with other teams. I admit I am not an NHL guru or junkie. Which is why it is even funnier that the more experienced NHL guys can't effectively counter my argument I wasn't really having fun until they stubbornly held onto their beliefs without presenting any evidence

Offer a solid statistical example, and we will be on even ground. Offer more than that, and you will soundly trounce me into the ground. C'mon guys, you're the experts!

Originally posted by: mpitts

Originally posted by: wyvrn
I never said there wasn't. I just stated, and backed up with a real world example, why GAA is an important stat that the goalies do have direct influence over.

I will not counter your statement about Roloson or Brodeur because I have seen Brodeur limited times and Roloson probably none. As stated, I'm not an NHL guy. Which is why I find it humorous that I can easily counter statements about hockey in this thread using a simple real world example and get squat as far as a rebuttal.

Originally posted by: Wingznut
Like I said, there's more to being a goalie than GAA.

Roloson had a better GAA (and SV %) than Brodeur. But I'd hardly consider him a better goalie.

How much hockey have you acutally watched this year?

 

[JeffreyLebowski]

<superfan song>DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS.

I'm gonna have to say Da Stars will sweep the series, and the opposing team in the cup will be so afraid they will not even bother to show up.

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: JeffreyLebowski
<superfan song>DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS,DA STARS.

I'm gonna have to say Da Stars will sweep the series, and the opposing team in the cup will be so afraid they will not even bother to show up.

I'm not a betting man, but I would take that bet

 

[Wingznut]

wyvrn, Turco is an excellent goalie. Turco is a better goalie than Tugnutt. You make a good point about comparing the two.

But to state "Turco is the best goalie in the playoffs, PERIOD.", basing most of that on a regular season stat, is not very solid. ESPECIALLY when talking about the playoffs.

Last year, Jose Theodore was the league MVP and had an excellent GAA. Too bad it didn't carry him past the second round. Oh yeah, and his GAA went up to 3.07 in the playoffs.

Conversely... Last year, Patrick Lalime had a 2.48 GAA and was ranked 19th in the league. In the playoffs, he stepped that up to an ungodly (and of course league leading) 1.39 GAA. But again... It was only good enough to get the Senators to the second round.


Like has been said before... The Stanley Cup playoffs are a whole different animal.

 

[Aquaman]

Originally posted by: wyvrn
ROFL. I am just trying to be a voice of reason for the NHL pundit's on this board. I have already admitted I am not an NHL genius, but I hear flawed arguments used on sports talk radio being echoed here and I wanted to take a shot at playing devil's advocate.

Originally posted by: Aquaman
I predict wyvrn's head will explode if Turco sucks in the playoffs

I kid I Kid

Cheers,
Aquaman

You obviously did not read my earlier reply. I NEVER said Turco was the best playoff goalie. I said he was the best goalie of the teams that are in the playoffs. I even went into detail about how because of his lack of experience in the playoffs, one cannot possibly KNOW how good he will be either way. We can, however, predict his performance using past information about goalies. I believe, and have stated here already, that in the past, most good regular season goalies went on to have solid playoff appearances. I also noted that there are some exceptions, but the few exceptions do not overwhelm the overall trend. So far, nobody has adequately countered this argument. Including yourself, senor!

This is exactly my point. You can't call Auld a great goalie because he has only played 7 games, just as you can't call Turco the best playoff goalie for this year because of his limited playoff experience.

That is a good point. I think this argument can be made either way, so I will leave it alone and acknowledge you may be correct. The great thing is, that's why they play the games

Just keep telling yourself that. Turco saw about 14 shots a game this year. Dallas's D is a BIG part of the success that Turco enjoyed this season.

Everyone enjoy the playoffs, and may the truly best team win it all!

Wyvrn my man.......... chill............. I read your posts & I was only kidding No worries man

Cheers,
Aquaman<<<<<<<<< Canuckclehead

 

[Aquaman]

Originally posted by: Wingznut
Eastern Conference

• Ottawa over NY in 4 -- Speed kills.
• New Jersey over Boston in 5 -- Boston just doesn't have the talent to keep up.
• Washington over Tampa Bay in 7 -- Khabibulin will do his best to keep the 'Ning in it, but the Caps will do enough to pull out a close series.
• Toronto over Philadelphia in 7 -- Eddie Belfour will stone the Flyers. Maybe the Flyers need yet ANOTHER average power forward/bruiser.

Western Conference

• Dallas over Edmonton in 6 -- Somehow the Oilers will manage to steal a couple of games.
• Detroit over Anaheim in 4 -- The Ducks have made the playoffs twice in their short history. Both times they faced the Wings in round one, and both times they were swept. This year will be no different.
• Colorado over Minnesota in 7 -- The Wild was the one team that nobody wanted to play. They have a "nothing to lose" attitude, but don't have the playoff experience to beat the Avs.
• Vancouver over St. Louis in 5 -- The Blues could very well be the most overrated team in the playoffs. As much as I like Ozzie, he's just not a good fit there.

The Red Wings will win it all!!! All this crap about CuJo not being good enough, is just that... Crap. They've won three Cups in the last six years with three different goalies. And you'll never convince me that CuJo isn't better than Vernon or Ozzie. They don't need the best goalie in the leage to win... Just a goalie that might steal one or two games, and won't LOSE games for them.

Look at their defense... Lidstrom/Dandenault and Chelios/Schneider are two of the best defensive pairings in the league! If Jiri Fischer comes back, they'll pair him with Jason Wooley and have THREE awesome defensive lines!


Oh, and btw... There is more to being a goalie than GAA.

Wingnut........ the Wings are going down............. because the Ducks finally watch one of thier own movies & they will use the Flying V to crush you

Cheers,
Aquaman

 

[Saltin]

I predict lots of beer and me infront of my new WEGA, cheering the Leafs on to certina victory.

On a more serious note though, I don't like Ottawa's first round matchup at all. Any team would have been better for them than the Isles. The Islanders play exactly the style of playoff hockey that Ottawa has proven it cant handle.
I like the Isle's in seven as round one's big upset.

 

[Wingznut]

LOL @ "The Flying V"!