I'd love to know your source.
Here is my clawhammer esitmate and reasons for it (middle of the thread). As some proof of those estimates look
at Anandtech's latest article:
"AMD admitted that the CPU would come with a premium ... AMD did mention that Athlon 64 chip prices would be competitive with Pentium 4s; indicating that the Athlon 64 would compete with the higher end P4s on price. On the system side, AMD expected Athlon 64 systems to be selling for $1600 - $2300 at launch"
The lowest prices for the higher end P4s are $385 for the 2.8 GHz and $699 for the 3.06 GHz at pricewatch.com. So that range is quite large. Can we narrow it down at all? Possibly, by looking at those system prices. Lets look at the most high end Dell home computer with typical components:
3.06 GHz P4, 512 MB PC1066 RDRAM, 120 GB HD
17" monitor, GeForce4 MX
Win XP home, 1 year Warranty
speakers, keyboard, mouse, etc.
$1800.
This is smack dab in the middle of AMD's $1600 - $2300 price range. So with maybe decreasing the memory a bit, you'd hit $1600 and by putting in a top of the line video card/monitor you'd hit $2300. All this is with the $699 P4 chip. Using any cheaper P4 and you'd be well under the $1600-$2300 price range. Thus it looks like the lauch will be towards the higher end of the $385-$699 price range. I still say $500s (most likely $599) at the start.