News Nvidia cuts 4Q18 revenue guidance

[Hitman928]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/nvidia-shares-tank-after-chipmaker-cuts-guidance.html

The company lowered its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter citing "deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, particularly in China."

Nvidia reports earnings on Feb. 14, and now expects quarterly revenue of $2.20 billion, down from previously stated guidance of $2.70 billion. The company also said quarterly margin will be impacted by charges related to "current market conditions."

In addition, sales of certain high-end GPUs using NVIDIA's new Turing™ architecture were lower than expected.

So Apple, Intel, and Nvidia all have lowered revenue expectations and cited China as a main source of lowered revenue. AMD reports earnings tomorrow, it will be interesting to see where they end up in terms of revenue guidance and the 'China problem' as well.

 

[NTMBK]

They hiked prices right when a recession is starting. Not really sure what they expected to happen.

 

[linkgoron]

Well, the 2060 seems to throw a monkey wrench into it.

The 2060 should sell pretty well.

Apparently it isn't.

Who would buy the 2060? First of all, $350 is almost console level pricing (you can get a PS4 pro and Xbox One X for $400 on Amazon). However, even ignoring that, It's just not ground breaking performance for the price. We've had cards in that area for years and the 1070 was already priced in the same ball park (even after the latest cryptocurrency hype, you could find <$400 1070 cards since around October).

That's why I see very few people upgrading to a 2060. If you have a 1060/580, would you pay $350 for 50% more performance? Remember, these are people who bought the 1060/580 when they could've bought a 1070 already (!!!) for ~$370 two and a half years ago. If you have a 1070... would you pay $350 for 15% more performance and 2GB less memory? Realistically, I can see people with older 970/290(x)/390(x)/480 upgrading. IMO getting 70-85% more performance (depending on the specific card) for more than what your previous card cost (970 launched at $330, 480 launched at $240), after 3/4 years is disappointing, although it might be your only realistic option.

For a new system, it's probably the best card price/perf and feature-wise (unless you go for the used market).

I did some rough napkin math crunching in another thread and concluded that $280 puts the 1660 Ti right inline with the 2060 as far as value/dollar goes, assuming that clock speeds are the same, etc. Some people were expecting it to cost $300, and I don't think it's been confirmed one way or another, but $280 is where I'm expecting.

I agree, and that's why I said "depending on clocks". However, even at the same clocks you do lose features (RTX, and maybe DLSS), so I'd say that the value is a little lower. The pricing is a joke anyway. Some posters here want to have it both ways. Justifying the 20 series pricing because it's a bigger die, while ignoring the fact that the smaller GTX cards are still priced inline with the RTX cards (maybe Nvidia will surprise me, I was hoping for $250-$275 for the 1660ti).

 

[rainy]

Looks like it was a bad day for Nvidia:
https://www.extremetech.com/computi...stroys-tens-of-thousands-of-nvidia-gpu-wafers

 

[ericlp]

Yeah, no one thought any new GPU would be 4-5 times faster than the previous one.

Nvidia is promising “up to 6X the performance of previous-generation graphics cards,” and real-time ray ... a new way to think about performance,” says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

Yeah, no one except for Jensen Huang I guess... I was being conservative at 4~5X as fast LOL...

Anyway... Volta was revolutionary. They should have improved on Volta and then made the volta price the same level of 500~600 bucks.

 

[mooncancook]

Too small an upgrade for too much money. No thanks, nvidia. I hope AMD will learn from this and drop the price for Radeon VII.

 

[ericlp]

NASDAQ: NVDA

138.01 USD −22.14 (13.82%)

Wow! They just took a big hit today... Lost almost 15% of their stock. Hmmmm, I wonder how low it will go?

 

[Furious_Styles]

NASDAQ: NVDA

138.01 USD −22.14 (13.82%)

Wow! They just took a big hit today... Lost almost 15% of their stock. Hmmmm, I wonder how low it will go?

Who knows, they are still the best in terms of GPUs but that share price went nuts during the past year or two. I'll still probably buy my next card from them should they lower prices. I sold my 1080 ti because the prices didn't make sense and am just using my back up 1070 right now. It does the job even at 1440p 144hz.

 

[JasonLD]

IMO, Nvidia stock was always overvalued compared to its position in the industry and mining boom kind of inflated their future growth potential. Now that bubble has popped, it is going back to normal.

 

[ericlp]

I still got my EVGA 1080ti ftw3... best card they ever made. Why sell something that they haven't improved on? Probably be a long time before anyone beats it. I do 2560X1440 @ 144hz also... Card is the bomb.... very happy with it... just too bad there isn't an upgrade path, I'd probably buy it.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I still got my EVGA 1080ti ftw3... best card they ever made. Why sell something that they haven't improved on? Probably be a long time before anyone beats it. I do 2560X1440 @ 144hz also... Card is the bomb.... very happy with it... just too bad there isn't an upgrade path, I'd probably buy it.

An RTX 2080 Ti represents an upgrade path for you, FWIW.

 

[lane42]

Didn't the 2080ti have a msrp of 999 at one time ?

 

[PeterScott]

Turing is lots faster than Pascal, but it's a notch too high in price in every bracket.

Thus we have GTX Turing cards coming.

We only have low end GTX Turing cards though, because including RT/Tensor HW won't scale down to low end parts, not because NVidia is rethinking it's commitment to Ray Tracing, or was chastened by low sales.

Should have probably gone with cheaper 1180ti/1180/1170/ etc., without the RT cores.

They probably did the right thing strategically(for NVidia) by bringing RTX in this generation, so that when better 7nm RTX arrive in 1-2 years, there might actually be some decent RT Software to run on them. If they waited for the next release, they would still have the chicken and egg problem with no software because there were no cards to run it on. New technology usually has a rocky start, take the rocky start in this: The "RT preview" generation. The real RT generation starts a year+ down the road.

 

[sandorski]

NASDAQ: NVDA

138.01 USD −22.14 (13.82%)

Wow! They just took a big hit today... Lost almost 15% of their stock. Hmmmm, I wonder how low it will go?

With the current Stock Market, it's a bad time for a company to have bad news.

 

[IEC]

Didn't the 2080ti have a msrp of 999 at one time ?

eVGA briefly sold a "Black Edition" with lower-binned chips and mediocre cooler for $999. They are now $1099 list price and significantly less appealing at that price. Not that they were exactly flying off the shelves at $999 either.

I purchased one at $999 but I'm also an anomaly due to how much computer hardware I buy on an annual basis. I also don't really care about noise so the mediocre cooler is of no consequence to me.

 

[Markfw]

I still got my EVGA 1080ti ftw3... best card they ever made. Why sell something that they haven't improved on? Probably be a long time before anyone beats it. I do 2560X1440 @ 144hz also... Card is the bomb.... very happy with it... just too bad there isn't an upgrade path, I'd probably buy it.

I have 10 of them. Yes the best card so far,

 

[LTC8K6]

Nvidia is promising “up to 6X the performance of previous-generation graphics cards,” and real-time ray ... a new way to think about performance,” says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

Yeah, no one except for Jensen Huang I guess... I was being conservative at 4~5X as fast LOL...

Anyway... Volta was revolutionary. They should have improved on Volta and then made the volta price the same level of 500~600 bucks.

Up to...

Turing is indeed up to 6X faster than Pascal.

Just not in games.

AFAIK Volta basically = Turing - RT Cores.

 

[LTC8K6]

We only have low end GTX Turing cards though, because including RT/Tensor HW won't scale down to low end parts, not because NVidia is rethinking it's commitment to Ray Tracing, or was chastened by low sales.




They probably did the right thing strategically(for NVidia) by bringing RTX in this generation, so that when better 7nm RTX arrive in 1-2 years, there might actually be some decent RT Software to run on them. If they waited for the next release, they would still have the chicken and egg problem with no software because there were no cards to run it on. New technology usually has a rocky start, take the rocky start in this: The "RT preview" generation. The real RT generation starts a year+ down the road.

Let's wait and see if we get a GTX Turing high end card. It's early yet.

How much would people pay for a GTX 1180ti?
Would it overclock better without the RT cores?

 

[LTC8K6]

1660
1770
1880
?

 

[badb0y]

Wow, I am shocked by this!

/s

They literally offered a flat perf/price increase in a new generation of cards and thought people would slurp it up.

 

[AnnoyedGrunt]

I got a 2080 which was roughly the same price as the 1080ti for roughly the same performance. I got a couple new features (that are not really valuable for me), but at that price point it seems like it was better to get the 2080 over the 1080ti.

However, I had been waiting for the reveal in the hopes that we'd have a shift of the price/performance curves, and unfortunately that didn't happen.

Moore's Law is slowing, and since 7nm is just getting off the ground I think it will be a little while before we get that large generational improvement that we've come to expect over the last 30 years of significant semiconductor process improvements. Maybe when 7nm ramps up we will get another jump, but until then it seems we are treading water a bit.

My 2080 is a nice card though, plays games great and runs very quiet. I'm happy with the purchase but would have liked to have spend a few hundred less $$$$ for the same performance. I was coming from a GTX680, so the increase for me was substantial.

-AG

 

[Arkaign]

Let's wait and see if we get a GTX Turing high end card. It's early yet.

How much would people pay for a GTX 1180ti?
Would it overclock better without the RT cores?

If they had made hypothetical 1170, 1180, 1180ti with the same transistor count, die size, and TDP of the RTX family, but with no tensor/RTX faff, they would have been absolutely monstrous.

Sadly, they're not

2060 ~> 1070ti, but not by much, and down on ram from 8 to 6GB

2070 ~ 1080AIB

2080 ~ 1080ti AIB, but with downgraded ram from 11GB to 8GB

Only 2080ti is a noticeable upgrade. But you have to have scrooge McDuck swimming pools of gold to buy one, and then pray none of the umpteen billions of transistors doesn't randomly eat electric death early as some are wont to do.

Also of note is that all of the reviews showing 20XX performance compares them only to 10XX founders edition models, which are quite sizably slower than any decent AIB, and haven't been relevant to buyers in over 2 years. Showing things like FTW, Strix, and Aorus really tells the truth of what the reality is (unless you DO happen to have one of the rare OG FE models).

At least with the 20XX FEs, they actually were quite fast compared to the old ones, which as a rule were overpriced and underwhelming as soon as good AIBs hit.

I wonder how the Vega 7 cooler will be. I hope it's not another mediocre blower design, but it probably will be :/ the Vega56/64 reference design is the epitome of 'meh'. It's not terrible like some people say. Those people must not remember reference 290X lol, I got one at launch and it was garbage compared to the Vegas. And the GeForce FX 5800 Vacuum Cleaner was too hilarious to forget.

 

[LTC8K6]

DLSS uses the Tensor cores, so I think the Tensor cores will remain.

 

[arandomguy]

I'm not predicting either way but strictly speaking Nvidia has not been branding/marketing RTX as just ray tracing.

So far DLSS as been put under the RTX umbrella as well across all marketing material I'm aware of. For instance -

NVIDIA NGX is a new deep learning powered technology stack bringing AI-based features that accelerate and enhance graphics, photos imaging and video processing directly into applications. NVIDIA NGX features utilize Tensor Cores to maximize the efficiency of their operation, and require an RTX-capable GPU. The NGX SDK makes it easy for developers to integrate AI features into their application with pre-trained networks.

https://developer.nvidia.com/rtx/ngx

If we look back to the original launch slides for upcoming games supporting RTX the majority I believe were for DLSS support only and not ray tracing.

 

[NTMBK]

I'm not predicting either way but strictly speaking Nvidia has not been branding/marketing RTX as just ray tracing.

So far DLSS as been put under the RTX umbrella as well across all marketing material I'm aware of. For instance -



https://developer.nvidia.com/rtx/ngx

If we look back to the original launch slides for upcoming games supporting RTX the majority I believe were for DLSS support only and not ray tracing.

Yeah, but who really buys an expensive new GPU for a dodgy upscaler?

 

[Qwertilot]

Well, you can see a real case for it on these cheaper cards. Will have to see if it is included or not.