Originally posted by: Extelleron
Originally posted by: BFG10K
People have been saying there's a limit for about 5 years now and it's never the case; they always find new ways to advance technology.
Besides, if single GPUs hit a wall then so will multi-GPUs since the former are the building blocks of the latter.
Take a look at G80 -> GT200.
GT200 is around ~2x G80 in terms of specs and performance.
G80 = 484mm^2 @ 90nm
GT200 = 576mm^2 @ 65nm
So for 2x the performance, you are talking about 100mm^2 larger chip at the next full process.
So no, there isn't a way to continue this. If G80 -> GT200 scaling continued, we would see "GT300" being 2x GT200 and 700mm^2 on a 45nm process. That isn't going to happen, I can promise you that.
AMD, meanwhile, has a small ~260mm^2 chip on 55nm. The problem nVidia seems to be facing as well is their architecture appears to take up more room. G80 -> GT200 gives 87.5% more SPs / ~ 2x TMUs (not exactly sure of TF/TA arrangement in GT200 so its hard to tell) / 1.33x ROPs / 1.50x bus size. And GT200 is well above 2x G80 in terms of transistors/die size.
RV770, meanwhile, is 2.5x SPs / 2-2.5x TMUs / optomized RBE's and it is only 30-40% larger than RV670. For the most part, the jump from RV670 -> RV770 is larger than G80 -> GT200, yet we see a 2x+ jump in die size for nVidia meawhile we see a 30-40% jump for AMD. So nVidia
probably needs multi-GPU more than AMD, actually. Their architecture takes up a lot of space.
It is indeed possible that we will see a bit more single-GPU, since TSMC is ramping up their move to advanced process nodes. We will see 32nm from TSMC in early 2010 and 40nm sometime in 2009. But after that, the single-GPU dies as far as I am concerned, if not before that. TSMC might have 32nm in 2010, but then it will be a 2 year wait until 2012 for 22nm.
My view of the future GPU is one where a number of GPUs (likely 2-4) are connected via hardware just like we see Intel's MCM quad-cores. The future GPU will be multi-GPU but I don't think it will always rely on software scaling.