Nvidia threatens partners at CeBIT

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dzoner

Banned
Feb 21, 2010
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Not sure on unit quantity but that was an ATi part(as in BBA)- if nV were going to take the hit on costs and sell their board partners already finished boards then it could be seen as a viable use of resources as nV would write it down as a marketting expense. Board vendors aren't going to do it themselves, and if this were the case we would be certain to see every board from every vendor identical, which the talk of OC varriants would rule out.

It does seem a bit odd that they would have a number for end of life on the product already, no matter what the situation, for a product that has just started to ramp. Looking at it from a straight business perspective, if I'm only getting 5K chips out of the high end run every one of them is becoming a Tesla/Quadro- it's just smart business.

Nvidia is probably working with one or two board partners (EVGA for sure) to do a 'halo' 480, a card with monster cooling, super select handpicked GPUs, isn't concerned with the 300 watt limit, and can squeeze out the absolute best performance that can be had from the A3 silicon, whatever it takes to have a factory released single GPU card that can be touted as king of the hill. But can it best the Gigabyte 5870 SOC looking to release with a 1000 mhz o/c?

Why not an EOL already if they aren't going to buy any more A3 wafers. With the ridicule, upset and bad press the GTX 470/480 will garner, why continue them when they get more product to sell in Sept or Oct. It'll be time for 'Fermi II', the GTX5xx products.
 

BenSkywalker

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
9,140
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With the ridicule, upset and bad press the GTX 470/480 will garner

Can you post your link to the benches so we can figure that out? So far all we have seen is speculation from a person who doesn't even know what an A0 stepping is on how it will stack up.

Besides that though, the Tesla/Quadro market is one that can sustain those kinds of yields and be profitable. Given the amount of additional time and development was spent on this spart strictly due to Tesla considerations it makes almost no business sense to discontinue production of a profitable part because a different application of it isn't viable on an economic basis.
 

ShadowOfMyself

Diamond Member
Jun 22, 2006
4,227
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Heh thats a pretty bold claim this close to launch, time to find out if he really is the troll everyone thinks
 

Kuzi

Senior member
Sep 16, 2007
572
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Over the Christmas holiday quarter nV outsold ATi 2:1. Enthusiasts that hold their breath from benchmarks are a miniscule portion of the overall market.

If Nvidia keeps falling behind, this situation will not stay forever. Enthusiasts as you say are a small portion of the market, but what about sales of Tier-1 PC makers such as Dell, HP, Acer, etc? Do you think they would keep selling PCs with rebrands of the G92, or with shinny 5000 series cards

OEM's selling PCs with Win7 want the best video cards with the latest features (DX11). Right now ATI is the one selling DX11 cards and offering the best price/performance at many price points, and of course they have the highest end cards too.
 

lifeblood

Senior member
Oct 17, 2001
999
88
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Nvidia to stock analysts - Yields are increasing and we see it hitting full stride in Q2.
Charlie to us - Total number of chips will be between 5000-7000 followed by a probable EOL.

Companies have lied before, even blatantly, but I can't see NV making such a big deal about GT470/480 if it's only going to release 10k chips. Charlie has been pretty on target concerning Fermi, but I think theirs more to this. Maybe NV has yet another respin going on and so expect a limited run of 470/480 to hold them over until the respin starts roll off the line. Or maybe their will be only a limited release of 470/480 and the increasing yields NV is talking about is all going towards Tesla.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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Maybe NV has yet another respin going on and so expect a limited run of 470/480 to hold them over until the respin starts roll off the line. Or maybe their will be only a limited release of 470/480 and the increasing yields NV is talking about is all going towards Tesla.

How much die space could moving to a 256 bit memory bus save them?

Are we at the point where the faster 7 Gbps GDDR5 is starting to make more economical sense? Or is a reduction in memory bus only worth a few mm2 in die space savings?
 

Tempered81

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2007
6,374
1
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Well tweakers says 5000 units, and S|A says 8000 units. A few hundred to all vendors worldwide makes sense. There's probably 20 different nv partners across the globe, so each one gets 400 cards average, that's 8000 units.
 

MagickMan

Diamond Member
Aug 11, 2008
7,460
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I can believe 8000 A3s being shipped, just to take the crown, while ramping up A4 and then rolling them out in high volume in late Q2/early Q3. I don't like it, but it seems about right.
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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I can believe 8000 A3s being shipped, just to take the crown, while ramping up A4 and then rolling them out in high volume in late Q2/early Q3. I don't like it, but it seems about right.

IF this is the case, which is possible, nvidia really needs to reevaluate whether or not a "1 chip fits all" mentality when it comes to consumer and professional cards. I realize that cutting out HPC-specific features will require considerable reworking of the die, but trimming some of the fat off the steak for the consumer market will save on die size and probably also get higher clock speeds.

Ah well this is all still conjecture and until fermi is released, fully benchmarked, and availability is scrutinized all we are talking about is what if's and will do's.
 

Kuzi

Senior member
Sep 16, 2007
572
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IF this is the case, then Nvidia will be in bad shape this year, ATI would have most of the market for themselves. Oh yeah, and maybe Charlie would change his website's name to AbsolutelyAccurate.
 

nyker96

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2005
5,630
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The sad part is nV won't crush any rumors, some of which seem to have a hint of validity to them. The marketing bullshit is strong with this product.

well, this is partly because they've been spreading bs all these month like saying the ati's dx11 6 moths headstart means nothing at all etc. with this type of bs and a ton of marketing to explain gtx4x0's delay instead of just tell people the truth and move on makes their words pretty worthless these days.

Disturbance in the force, feel it I can.

so master yoda, what does the force tell you about the performance of these cards?
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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Single GPU crown. At least that's the way it'll be touted.

"5 percent above the HD5870 for the GTX480..."

If the lead is only 5% ATI might be able to beat that with a memory swap (7 Gbps GDDR5) and a small GPU core speed increase.

However, I think Fermi's major advantage could be minimum FPS (with full DX11 turned on) rather than average FPS.
 
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SHAQ

Senior member
Aug 5, 2002
738
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Just the 480 will be limited or also the 470? It looks like he is referring to just the 480. So prices will be about $480 for the 470 and $649 for the 480. Except there will probably be a fair bit of price gouging by etailers. The 480 may be $750 or higher like the 7800 512 was at release.
 
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Tempered81

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2007
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well according to steam hardware survey Nv has 2:1 marketshare over ati. That includes all the 9400gt's, 8400m gs's and crap in all those dell laptops.

Theres also a lot of 8800's, 9800's and gt200's out there (partly in thanks to g92 existing in all three categories-hehe). 3870's, 4700, 4800, 5700, and 5800 are ati's top categories that round out the rest. 4800 is ati's most popular series.

I think if you were to just compare high-end ati vs. high-end nvidia, then ati would have definitely outsold them for the last half a year. (no source on that 1 - just sayin)
 

SolMiester

Diamond Member
Dec 19, 2004
5,330
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If the lead is only 5% ATI might be able to beat that with a memory swap (7 Gbps GDDR5) and a small GPU core speed increase.

However, I think Fermi's major advantage could be minimum FPS (with full DX11 turned on) rather than average FPS.

If the premium Fermi only beats the 5870 by 5%, nV and alot of enthusiasts will consider that a failure....I predict at least 15%, otherwise it isnt worth it!
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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If the premium Fermi only beats the 5870 by 5%, nV and alot of enthusiasts will consider that a failure....I predict at least 15%, otherwise it isnt worth it!

That is true, but think about this:

Why does Nvidia need to beat ATI in games? How will being faster than HD5970 help anything? Maybe Nvidia is doing the right thing by focusing on HPC instead of gaming?

The following excerpt from Tom's hardware really brings the situation into perspective.

From page 2 of Tomshardware.com article said:
On the other extreme, the AMD Radeon HD 5970 is so fast that even with a 30" monitor and everything set to ultra-high quality, you're still seeing greater than 100 FPS in many games. Pause for a moment and think about what AMD’s Eyefinity technology signifies: AMD's performance is so high that it has to come up with creative (and almost frivolous) ways to utilize that power by rendering two or three times that number of pixels."

http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/future-3d-graphics,2560-3.html
 
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BenSkywalker

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
9,140
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Source???

SEC- Haven't seen JP's numbers yet for raw sales, but nV had doulbe the dollar amount, I think it is safe to say that they didn't achieve that by blowing ATi out of the water 3:1 in the high end.

Do you think they would keep selling PCs with rebrands of the G92, or with shinny 5000 series cards

GSOD and Crysis benches- if you are Michael Dell, which is a larger concern? Sure, they'll stuff the fastest part they can get in their Alienware rigs, but driver missteps of that magnitude are a larger factor then a couple fps on a bench chart, by a huge margin. Also, when is the last time you saw an OEM computer that shipped with anything worthy of us wiping our butts with?

IF this is the case, which is possible, nvidia really needs to reevaluate whether or not a "1 chip fits all" mentality when it comes to consumer and professional cards. I realize that cutting out HPC-specific features will require considerable reworking of the die, but trimming some of the fat off the steak for the consumer market will save on die size and probably also get higher clock speeds.

People aren't really looking at it this thoroughly on that front. GTX480 512SPs, GTX470 448SPs, GTX 260 384SPs, GTX 250 320SPs- not saying it is how they will go, but using nV's setup it is possible that they only yield 3% of their chips as 480s and it is possible they could hit close to a 95% useable yield rate. This is one of the issues I have with believing a lot of the talk about how they are going to stop production. No, it isn't ideal to use your largest die for 4 seperate chips, but it certainly is within their ability to do so if they decided to. Not saying they will go that route, not even saying they are absolutely going to launch, but when I look at all of the 'nightmare' scenarios I am reading about, seems like it makes a lot more sense to sell off ~1/2 good chips for ~$200 then to throw them away. Think 5830- somehow nV can't do the same thing when they by design make their chips with that in mind?

If the premium Fermi only beats the 5870 by 5%, nV and alot of enthusiasts will consider that a failure....I predict at least 15%, otherwise it isnt worth it!

What if Fermi is a full 15% slower then the 5870, and it launches at $200? Is that still a failure in your eyes? I'm not placing bets on any level of performance or price, but for me at the very least judging how good the parts are is going to be based on a combination of the two factors, either one in isolation is fairly useless to me as an end user.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
12,968
221
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well according to steam hardware survey Nv has 2:1 marketshare over ati. That includes all the 9400gt's, 8400m gs's and crap in all those dell laptops.

Theres also a lot of 8800's, 9800's and gt200's out there (partly in thanks to g92 existing in all three categories-hehe). 3870's, 4700, 4800, 5700, and 5800 are ati's top categories that round out the rest. 4800 is ati's most popular series.

I think if you were to just compare high-end ati vs. high-end nvidia, then ati would have definitely outsold them for the last half a year. (no source on that 1 - just sayin)

It will be interesting to see if this market share increases or decreases over the next 5 years?

At the moment, it seems ATI is developing a new re-architecture of crossfire that will allow its discrete GPUs to work with their APUs. With the upcoming Llano APU supposedly having 480 stream processors combining this could be seen as a big value added bonus. In contrast AMD's brand new 2010 890 GX chipset only has 40 stream processors.

As far as Nvidia goes, having a strong Intel will probably help a lot.
 
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Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,682
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SEC- Haven't seen JP's numbers yet for raw sales, but nV had doulbe the dollar amount, I think it is safe to say that they didn't achieve that by blowing ATi out of the water 3:1 in the high end.

I think you ignored this post by me.

I will reiterate it. No holiday sales have been reported to the SEC or anyone by any company. Maybe some companies have hinted in forward looking statements, but we won't see any numbers till April-May.
 

BenSkywalker

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
9,140
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I paid that post every bit of attention it deserved. You didn't even glance at the links I provided-

The quarter they just reported and financial year ended September 30, 2009.

nV is currently in FY 2011. I have no idea where you get your financial news from, but I provided the links in that thread, read them.

Meh- I'll repost them and quote them, don't want misinformation being spread

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=116466&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1392142&highlight=

NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) today reported revenue of $982.5 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010 ended Jan. 31, 2010

http://www.amd.com/us/press-releases/Pages/q4-earnings-2010jan21.aspx

For the year ended Dec. 26, 2009, AMD reported revenue of $5.403 billion.

ATi breakdown is contained in that report.
 
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Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,682
912
126
I paid that post every bit of attention it deserved. You didn't even glance at the links I provided-



nV is currently in FY 2011. I have no idea where you get your financial news from, but I provided the links in that thread, read them.

DUDE? There are no holiday numbers!!!

FY 2010 (edit wrong number)
* 1st Quarter: October 1, 2008 - December 31, 2008
* 2nd Quarter: January 1, 2009 - March 31, 2009
* 3rd Quarter: April 1, 2009 - June 30, 2009
* 4th Quarter: July 1, 2009 - September 30, 2009

^ last SEC report!!!
v reports starting in April-May

FY 2011 (edit wrong number)
* 1st Quarter: October 1, 2009 - December 31, 2009
* 2nd Quarter: January 1, 2010 - March 31, 2010
* 3rd Quarter: April 1, 2010 - June 30, 2010
* 4th Quarter: July 1, 2010 - September 30, 2010
 
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