Obama falling hard

[RY62]

Real Clear Politics has it McCain 47.7% to Obama 45.2 %. Intrade has McCain at 50.9 Obama at 47.5. CNN Poll of Polls has McCain 46% to Obama 45%.

For the first time, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ , has McCain leading in the electoral vote 272 - 266. Pretty much all of the polls show Obama in decline and I don't think this is just a convention bounce.

I think the message for Obama should be "Never wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it". the campaign has turned to the Republicans favor.

Obama has started trying to fight a negative campaign and the MSM was reporting that Obama has given his blessing for the 527's to also go hard negative. I think this is a big mistake.

The O camp is paying too much attention to Governor Palin and it's knocked him way off message. IMO, if he's going to have a chance, he needs to ignore the VP and get back to the high road image, take it back to the issues and tell his bloggers to do the same.

I think his best chance right now would be some face to face town hall type meetings with Senator McCain. I know, he doesn't do well off the cuff but that needs to change. He needs to contrast directly with Senator McCain and replace the stuttering thoughtful image with some quick decisive answers which show a clear solid policy stance.

Right now, Senator McCain would probably decline the meetings and, if he does, Obama should do some on his own. I'm sure he could get some televised events where he could answer direct questions from the audience.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to see the decline. I'm just trying to figure out the drop and what his strategy from here might be.

What strategy do you think would work?

 

[Vic]

Yes, because you actually care about what will help Obama's campaign and aren't just another wingnut hack spreading FUD about McCain's post-convention bounce. :roll:

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Vic
Yes, because you actually care about what will help Obama's campaign and aren't just another wingnut hack spreading FUD about McCain's post-convention bounce. :roll:

Don't you think the bounce effect should be over by now? The o bounce didn't last nearly this long.

I don't care to help the O camp but I do like to play amateur Karl Rove from time to time.

 

[RightIsWrong]

Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

 

[Tab]

This isn't really that big of a margin, but in any event. I still think Obama is going to win this election.

 

[JSt0rm]

it certainly is an interesting election.

 

[jpeyton]

Interesting; RCP actually has Obama up in their electoral vote counter from yesterday.

Anyway, a close 1/2 point race in the polls means Democrats turn out in full force like they did for the close primary. And we all know what that means.

 

[Farang]

Not just a convention bounce? He had a bounce, now it has retreated to a statistical dead heat. So yes, in fact it was just the bounce and now things have settled to a point where nothing matters until the debates.

 

[sierrita]

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

Even if she's still on the training wheels tonight, it won't be long before she falls big time.

After a few weeks of fascination, the revulsion factor will win out to any serious American voter, left or right.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

If Russert were alive, you might get your wish.

My prediction: Governor Palin is going to shine tonight and the O decline is going to get worse.

 

[mshan]

If Palin had been rolled out a week or two before the election, it might have worked.

People still have 2 months of bills and 4 paycheck stubs to bring them back to reality...

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Farang
Not just a convention bounce? He had a bounce, now it has retreated to a statistical dead heat. So yes, in fact it was just the bounce and now things have settled to a point where nothing matters until the debates.

So you think he's on the right strategy for now?

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: sierrita

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

Even if she's still on the training wheels tonight, it won't be long before she falls big time.

After a few weeks of fascination, the revulsion factor will win out to any serious American voter, left or right.

She didn't seem very sharp in the clips I've seen of the interview. She seemed nervous and didn't do a good job of framing the questions (I saw the experience question and the God's plan question). I don't see her lasting long if they open her to interviews.

 

[Stoneburner]

Another fuckin idiot posting. 538 had mccain winning immediately before the dem convention too.

And ras mussen shows obama ahead, gallup is mccain plus 4, the research 2000 shows obama up 2 nationally and Obama is still winning the state by state battles.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: Farang
Not just a convention bounce? He had a bounce, now it has retreated to a statistical dead heat. So yes, in fact it was just the bounce and now things have settled to a point where nothing matters until the debates.

So you think he's on the right strategy for now?

Yes, the Palin shock is settling and he is hitting them hard on being false agents of change, a charge that they don't seem to have a response to. This problem was covered up by the lipstick issue successfully by McCain, but unless the McCain campaign can fire one of those off each week McCain's record will become a real problem for him. The press seems less inclined to stray from the issues now that I've seen a lot of op/eds about how the press needs to get over the lipstick comment and move to the issues.

 

[Balt]

The Obama Camp really seems to be in defensive mode lately. McCain is usurping the "Change" message in the campaign and stepping up some nasty attacks while simultaneously claiming that Obama is the one who is making the race dirty.

 

[uclaLabrat]

It'll be interesting to see if Obama can wring McCain's newfound echoes of change into a bad disadvantage. It gives him a two-pronged attack to use McCain's record to paint him as a liar and neocon sycophant, and return focus onto the issues instead of the Palin sideshow. Could be interesting.

 

[OrByte]

stop the bleeding?

simple answer: Let Palin speak.

The media has been incredibly gracious to allow Palin to sit safe in her hunters nest and snipe away at Obama for the past two weeks. Basically serving the democratic ticket up to her on a silver platter...and letting the American Audience enjoy listening to her (stump speech) pummel without challenge.

Once she starts talking to the media then she gets to come right down from her perch and sling the mud and play both offense and defense like the rest of them.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

What makes you think she is going to fall flat on her face??

Everyone speaks very highly of her.

You seem to forget that to become governor she beat a guy who spent 20 years in Washington in the primary and a guy who was a two term former governor. You don't accomplish feats like that if you are an idiot.

youtube video of the 2006 alaska debate
Watch a bit of this video and get back to me.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Another fuckin idiot posting. 538 had mccain winning immediately before the dem convention too.

And ras mussen shows obama ahead, gallup is mccain plus 4, the research 2000 shows obama up 2 nationally and Obama is still winning the state by state battles.

I know how you feel. I went through the same feelings when Senator Clinton was on her way out. Don't worry, you'll get through this.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Interesting; RCP actually has Obama up in their electoral vote counter from yesterday.

Anyway, a close 1/2 point race in the polls means Democrats turn out in full force like they did for the close primary. And we all know what that means.

Up in what way???

They have been at 273 to 265 for at least a week. The last change was 8/24.

 

[sierrita]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
Do you really want to know how you stop the bleeding?

Watch Palin finally being interviewed tonight and if she is not allowed to give canned answers and Charles Gibson asks tough questions instead of lobbing softballs....you'll very soon have your answer.

Edit: God do I wish that Russert was alive and conducting this interview.

What makes you think she is going to fall flat on her face??

Everyone speaks very highly of her.

You seem to forget that to become governor she beat a guy who spent 20 years in Washington in the primary and a guy who was a two term former governor. You don't accomplish feats like that if you are an idiot.

.

You are forgetting the last two presidential elections.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Another fuckin idiot posting. 538 had mccain winning immediately before the dem convention too.

And ras mussen shows obama ahead, gallup is mccain plus 4, the research 2000 shows obama up 2 nationally and Obama is still winning the state by state battles.

I know how you feel. I went through the same feelings when Senator Clinton was on her way out. Don't worry, you'll get through this.

I get the feeling from you that this is one of the first presidential elections you have paid close attention to. The RNC was just about a week ago. The conventions were spaced extremely closely together here, and Obama's convention bounce was largely overridden by McCain's VP pick/convention. While Obama's bounce might have been abnormally short due to scheduling, McCain's has not been anything special.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Farang
Not just a convention bounce? He had a bounce, now it has retreated to a statistical dead heat. So yes, in fact it was just the bounce and now things have settled to a point where nothing matters until the debates.

I think you are dreaming.
link
Of the last 9 polls McCain is leading in 6 of them, Obama is leading in 1 and they are tied in 2.

Prior to Sept 1 Obama was leading in nearly EVERY poll.
For the entire month of August McCain led in only 4 of them.

You can try to deflect this change by talking about 'statistical dead heat' but you are foolish if you are trying to deny that McCain is clearing in the drivers seat as of today.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: OrByte
stop the bleeding?

simple answer: Let Palin speak.

The media has been incredibly gracious to allow Palin to sit safe in her hunters nest and snipe away at Obama for the past two weeks. Basically serving the democratic ticket up to her on a silver platter...and letting the American Audience enjoy listening to her (stump speech) pummel without challenge.

Once she starts talking to the media then she gets to come right down from her perch and sling the mud and play both offense and defense like the rest of them.

Obama has a sad campaign if it rests on hope that the Republican VP will do poorly in interviews and the one debate.