Obama falling hard

[RY62]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: RY62Connecting him to Bush would be a good idea IF you could convince the voters that matter right now. I don't think they can. The class warfare tactic is being negated by Governor Palin. She is the candidate that appeals most to the middle class.

Do you think she appeals to the middle class for economic reasons or for religious reasons? I'm guessing it's the latter. How the Republicans appeal to the middle class at all at this point, I have no idea.

Honestly, I don't think the average voter is a very deep thinker. They see her as a working mom with a typical family doing typical things and they think "hey, she's one of us". "If she's one of us, she'll understand what's important to us". It may sound stupid but it's damned effective, much like the black voters or women voters voting for "one of their own".

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

It is awfully effective, no denying that. It doesn't make it right.

This is what I don't understand. Even if you are Republican, when we nominate people that are unqualified for public office we all lose.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays
It is awfully effective, no denying that. It doesn't make it right.

This is what I don't understand. Even if you are Republican, when we nominate people that are unqualified for public office we all lose.

I agree. That's why I've been so anti-Obama. Now, I'm just anti-Democrat until 2012.
Senator McCain is far more qualified than obama.

 

[Jhhnn]

Palin's appeal is entirely irrational, and that's the beauty of it, from Repub's POV. It's tough for Dems to attack, because there's nothing there to be attacked. She's just a superficially appealing conduit for the repubs' usual low-ball gut-level pitch. Think with the head on your dick instead of the head on your shoulders.

It's a mistake to even try, as she's a diversion from the real issue- McCain as a faux agent for change. What's he going to change? More personal income taxcuts for the financial elite? Lower corporate taxes so that wealthy stockholders get more after-tax profits? Appoint even more far-right judges, particularly to the SCOTUS? Start another war, with the Iranians, even before we finish the actions in Iraq and Afghanistan? Antagonize the Russians, so we can sink deeper into a coldwar mindset? Sponsor a $300M pie in the sky battery contest? Balance the budget with a bigger military by killing earmarks, 1% of the budget? Put a few drops in the wishful thinking oil bucket with more domestic drilling? Kick the bucket, leave us with Caribou Barbie running the country?

Dems just need to stick with the message- that people need to be dispassionate about it- think long and hard before they vote- about their families, their futures and the state of the economy and the nation after 8 years of republican rule, and the difference between past promises and present results...

 

[nullzero]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

I think people who are still undecided in the last days tend to go with what they believe is the safe option. In this election that seems more like McCain.

Unless Obama is clearly leading going in I really don't expect he's going to win.

McCain has to have a substantial lead in key battle ground states to win this election. THat's the sad truth for him. His campaign knows this which is why MCCAIN IS RUNNING THE DESPERATION CAMPAIGN, not obama.

So your saying that Mc Cain is ahead in key battle ground states by a lot and running a desperate campaign because of this....

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: RY62

Originally posted by: Farang
Not just a convention bounce? He had a bounce, now it has retreated to a statistical dead heat. So yes, in fact it was just the bounce and now things have settled to a point where nothing matters until the debates.

So you think he's on the right strategy for now?

Yes, the Palin shock is settling and he is hitting them hard on being false agents of change, a charge that they don't seem to have a response to. This problem was covered up by the lipstick issue successfully by McCain, but unless the McCain campaign can fire one of those off each week McCain's record will become a real problem for him. The press seems less inclined to stray from the issues now that I've seen a lot of op/eds about how the press needs to get over the lipstick comment and move to the issues.

So two weeks ago you would've been happy Obama is losing in every national poll? Give me a break, this is much more than a convention bounce.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

As far as I can see it's not even two weeks since the Convention. This is still a convention bounce.

 

[Vic]

I think Obama's excellent performance at tonight's Service forum should put an end to McCain's convention bounce. The RNC just ended a week ago today. Polls have already shown McCain's lead faltering, it's still nearly 2 months until the election, and more debates, etc. are to come.

The OP has a history on this forum as a FUD-spreading troll, this kind of thread is typical of him.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: nullzero

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: Farang

Originally posted by: winnar111

Originally posted by: Farang
He is beyond the margin of error in only 1 poll, so my point is nobody is in the driver's seat since the race is so tight that the debates will be the deciding factor. I'm not denying McCain appears to be ahead in national polls (though behind where it counts in the electoral college), but by a margin that will be dwarfed by the change in polls that will occur after the debates.

Kerry was at this exact point, more or less, in 2004, he won 2 out of 3 debates, and lost the election.

Good luck with the Bradley Effect.

We've already been through 54 primaries that disproved that theory. And the Kerry/Bush race was more or less a toss up that was decided by turnout, much as this election will be.

I think people who are still undecided in the last days tend to go with what they believe is the safe option. In this election that seems more like McCain.

Unless Obama is clearly leading going in I really don't expect he's going to win.

McCain has to have a substantial lead in key battle ground states to win this election. THat's the sad truth for him. His campaign knows this which is why MCCAIN IS RUNNING THE DESPERATION CAMPAIGN, not obama.

So your saying that Mc Cain is ahead in key battle ground states by a lot and running a desperate campaign because of this....

No, i'm saying he needs to be AND IS NOT.

clear enough for you? I can try to draw a picture

 

[winnar111]

Michigan is +1 McCain now in the latest poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-553.html

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: winnar111
Michigan is +1 McCain now in the latest poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-553.html

What are you ignoring another poll from the same time period and similar sample that shows Obama up by 5?

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Vic
I think Obama's excellent performance at tonight's Service forum should put an end to McCain's convention bounce. The RNC just ended a week ago today. Polls have already shown McCain's lead faltering, it's still nearly 2 months until the election, and more debates, etc. are to come.

The OP has a history on this forum as a FUD-spreading troll, this kind of thread is typical of him.

There's an interesting article on the Huffington Post about the shifting party affiliations in the samples taken by the big pollsters recently. I haven't had time to check up on it, but if it's accurate that would also explain a large amount of the poll movement over the last week or two.

But like I said, not sure about it.

 

[SSSnail]

IMO, Oblahma's camp spent all their energy and all the Dems that would vote for him already came out to support him during the battle with Hillary. It can only worsen from here on out, more and more people are getting tired of Obamababy'smamarama.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first time in a long time that California turns red.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: SSSnail


I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first time in a long time that California turns red.

Wow. What a stupid remark. And I bet John McCain's mother will vote for Barr...

 

[Painman]

Sometimes the stupid is so concentrated and caustic that it burns. That's why I limit my exposure to this place. I'd prefer that my corneas hold out for another 35-40 years or so.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
IMO, Oblahma's camp spent all their energy and all the Dems that would vote for him already came out to support him during the battle with Hillary. It can only worsen from here on out, more and more people are getting tired of Obamababy'smamarama.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first time in a long time that California turns red.

Try talking without peanut butter in your mouth.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

And the winner for dumbest post in P&N history goes to................SSSnail!

 

[fatpat268]

Meh, the american public goes with what's hot at the moment. Right now, Sarah Palin, for whatever reason, is the hot issue right now.

Give it time and polls will even out again. That said, I take polls with a grain of salt. These polls generally have a much too small polling sample for me to even give a damn.

 

[yuppiejr]

About time, glad to see the American public is looking past the veneer and starting to take a good hard look at what this Community Organizer of a whopping 13 people actually has to offer as president... which isn't much.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Community organizer, civil rights attorney, professor of constitutional law, and United States Senator.........but who's counting?

It baffles me that someone would want to belittle someone for working as a community service organizer fresh out of college. Aren't the Republicans supposed to be religious, isn't working for your community God's work? Oh wait, you're all hypocrites I forgot.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Vic
I think Obama's excellent performance at tonight's Service forum should put an end to McCain's convention bounce. The RNC just ended a week ago today. Polls have already shown McCain's lead faltering, it's still nearly 2 months until the election, and more debates, etc. are to come.

The OP has a history on this forum as a FUD-spreading troll, this kind of thread is typical of him.

Do you think anyone paid attention to Obama's performance at the service forum? I see many discussions of the Palin interview but not much discussion of the service forum. It looks to me like Governor Palin is still stealing the spotlight.

Assuming this is still a convention bounce, it still doesn't look good for the O camp to be polling below McCain in the electoral count. This has to be problematic for him since he can't seem to get any message across with all eyes on Governor Palin.

Call it FUD if you like but Dems are rightfully nervous. The attacks against Governor Palin are keeping the focus away from Obama. Even if the focus on Palin is negative it will still hurt Obama because it takes attention away from him and keeps him off message.

You may still be in denial but most Dems seem to have moved on to anger. We'll have to wait a while longer for bargaining, depression, and acceptance.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays
Community organizer, civil rights attorney, professor of constitutional law, and United States Senator.........but who's counting?

It baffles me that someone would want to belittle someone for working as a community service organizer fresh out of college. Aren't the Republicans supposed to be religious, isn't working for your community God's work? Oh wait, you're all hypocrites I forgot.

A community organizer should not be littled any more than a mayor or a state governor should be belittled. All are doing a service to their communities and country. How much that service qualifies them to be President should be the only question.

 

[theeedude]

Dems can turn Palin into a liability for McCain, and a big one. They need to get America asking if given McCain's age, they want that woman as their president, a job for which she appears to not even be remotely qualified. They got two months.

 

[kage69]

Palin's appeal is entirely irrational, and that's the beauty of it, from Repub's POV. It's tough for Dems to attack, because there's nothing there to be attacked. She's just a superficially appealing conduit for the repubs' usual low-ball gut-level pitch. Think with the head on your dick instead of the head on your shoulders. It's a mistake to even try, as she's a diversion from the real issue- McCain as a faux agent for change. What's he going to change? More personal income taxcuts for the financial elite? Lower corporate taxes so that wealthy stockholders get more after-tax profits? Appoint even more far-right judges, particularly to the SCOTUS? Start another war, with the Iranians, even before we finish the actions in Iraq and Afghanistan? Antagonize the Russians, so we can sink deeper into a coldwar mindset? Sponsor a $300M pie in the sky battery contest? Balance the budget with a bigger military by killing earmarks, 1% of the budget? Put a few drops in the wishful thinking oil bucket with more domestic drilling? Kick the bucket, leave us with Caribou Barbie running the country? Dems just need to stick with the message- that people need to be dispassionate about it- think long and hard before they vote- about their families, their futures and the state of the economy and the nation after 8 years of republican rule, and the difference between past promises and present results...

Well said Jhnnn :thumbsup:

The last seven years have turned our conservatives minds to mush I'm afraid.

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Dems can turn Palin into a liability for McCain, and a big one. They need to get America asking if given McCain's age, they want that woman as their president, a job for which she appears to not even be remotely qualified. They got two months.

Yep, Dems need to go ageist and sexist at the same time, while shining more light on Obamas inexperience. That'll work. :thumbsup: