October Surprise

[alchemize]

I'm not thinking a big one, rather a series of small ones.

Internationally, I think Iran will up the ante in Iraq with some big attacks, hoping to push the dems into power with a small scale civil war blowing up (not too big - they don't want it to spiral out of control, just "enough" chaos". I think North Korea will test a nuke, hoping to push the dems into power, that will probably backfire. I think Al Qaida will release some tapes, maybe stage a small attack outside the US, I'm neutral on the effect of that.

Domestically, I think we'll have lots of "mini-scandals" popping up, but those are already in progress. Rove has a grand master plan up his sleeve, but of course nobody can predict that until it happens and the dems appropriately deem it "Rovian"

Gas prices are going to continue to fall, and the stock market will continue to rise.

Edit: I also predict that the Democrats will take the House, and the Republicans will retain control of the senate. Unless Diebold pulls through again, of course

There you have it, let's hear yours. Don't be afraid to don that Thinking Cap*!


*Tinfoil is the best substance to concentrate your imagination, so I hear...

 

[UberNeuman]

I think I'll get a rock instead of candy in my trick-or-treat bag....

 

[2Xtreme21]

"Terror Alert: Orange. Buy duct tape and vote Republican or you all die."

 

[ProfJohn]

I disagree with the first half of your post in that any terror attacks should help Republicans since they still poll better on defense issues. Although Iraq clouds that, so maybe you are right, so damn confusing huh?

The word in the right wing blog world is that the "outing" of Foley is just the first in a series of "outings" of gay Republicans by the radical gays. To them being gay and being in the closest is akin to being a baby killer. (I've seen a 3 year old web site calling Foley gay and saying "he is threat to other gays" not nice stuff for sure)

North Korea would be HUGE, forget about Foley if that happens, and that would help the Republicans big time I think, what can the Dems run against that? "We need to get out of Iraq?" Not going to work IMO.

Can anyone name for me a Rove October surprise? They have been talking about him doing one for 6 years now and I can't think of one. At least not one that compares to the fake document story in 2004 and the "missing explosives" story in 2002, a story that had been out for MONTHS that suddenly comes to the front of the news right before the election... sort of like people knowing about Foley being a creep for months and now all of a sudden this happens... hmmmm

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I disagree with the first half of your post in that any terror attacks should help Republicans since they still poll better on defense issues. Although Iraq clouds that, so maybe you are right, so damn confusing huh?

The word in the right wing blog world is that the "outing" of Foley is just the first in a series of "outings" of gay Republicans by the radical gays. To them being gay and being in the closest is akin to being a baby killer. (I've seen a 3 year old web site calling Foley gay and saying "he is threat to other gays" not nice stuff for sure)

North Korea would be HUGE, forget about Foley if that happens, and that would help the Republicans big time I think, what can the Dems run against that? "We need to get out of Iraq?" Not going to work IMO.

I think if something happened with North Korea it would actually hurt the Republicans. Sure, the Republicans poll well on defense issues, but it would be easy (and correct) for the Dems to point out that the reason North Korea has been allowed to fester in the background is because Bush and the Republicans knew it was a threat and have done virtually nothing to solve the issues there. It's not like a North Korean issue would be a huge surprise, and the Republican failure to deal with the problem would be a HUGE strike against them.

9/11 was good for the Republicans because they could avoid most of the blame of not doing enough to stop it, imagine if 9/11 would have happened in September 2004, Bush would have been crushed in the election, no matter how strong Republicans traditionally poll on national security. When the ball is dropped, you don't want to have been the person who dropped it, and that's how ANY national security crisis is going to reflect on the Republicans at this point.

Can anyone name for me a Rove October surprise? They have been talking about him doing one for 6 years now and I can't think of one. At least not one that compares to the fake document story in 2004 and the "missing explosives" story in 2002, a story that had been out for MONTHS that suddenly comes to the front of the news right before the election... sort of like people knowing about Foley being a creep for months and now all of a sudden this happens... hmmmm

I don't know, the Swift Boat Vet bullshit comes to mind. Granted that wasn't in October, but it WAS pretty well timed, it actually had time to build and build in public before the election. October is getting a little late to change the mood of the country.

 

[noproblems]

How about Rove being indicted before Abramoff gets slipped the big one in the big house . . . as he deserves to be, the crooked b%stard. I aint saying its gonna happen, cause it won't . . . yet. But it sure would be a tad bit more icing on the "what comes around, goes around" cake being served to the democrats this election season.

I always did say the only good Republican is an indicted Republican.

 

[johnnobts]

October Surprises:

-Bob Woodward book, State of Denial (Bob already said on TV he rushed the book b/c he wanted it out before the election) ADV. DEMS
-Mark Foley: yes, this was sat on by ABC (the reporter said he knew but was too "busy" with other news) ADV. DEMS
-The economy! Dow is breaking records here. SURPRISE (I'm sure its bush's fault) ADV. REPS
-Gas Prices Low, hovering around $60 (though Huga Chavez wants gas to cost more, luckily Bush has single-handedly according to the dems kept prices low) ADV. REPS

New Surprises?
-North Korea? Kim Jong Il saber-rattling, and this is an advantage for republicans.
-Bush to announce troop withdrawls (not all troops, but maybe 20-30 thousand in key battleground states? Wouldn't be surprised). ADV Reps.
-Osama Bin Laden hiding in Dick Cheney's Closet? They finally find him, doesn't matter anymore, doesn't score points, but at least Dems like conjur can't keep asking "Where's bin Laden?" Answer: he's in the middle east somewhere.
-SMEAR SMEAR SMEAR: the dem war-room has plenty of serious charges to hand off to the willing MSM each and every weekend running up to election. Anything they can throw out to supress the vote (sex scandals, abramhoff stuff, whatever).
-Michael Steele: Dems will reveal by anonymous sources that Steele is, in fact white, and press will devote horus and hours of coverage

 

[JEDIYoda]

Originally posted by: johnnobts
October Surprises:

-Bob Woodward book, State of Denial (Bob already said on TV he rushed the book b/c he wanted it out before the election) ADV. DEMS
-Mark Foley: yes, this was sat on by ABC (the reporter said he knew but was too "busy" with other news) ADV. DEMS
-The economy! Dow is breaking records here. SURPRISE (I'm sure its bush's fault) ADV. REPS
-Gas Prices Low, hovering around $60 (though Huga Chavez wants gas to cost more, luckily Bush has single-handedly according to the dems kept prices low) ADV. REPS

New Surprises?
-North Korea? Kim Jong Il saber-rattling, and this is an advantage for republicans.
-Bush to announce troop withdrawls (not all troops, but maybe 20-30 thousand in key battleground states? Wouldn't be surprised). ADV Reps.
-Osama Bin Laden hiding in Dick Cheney's Closet? They finally find him, doesn't matter anymore, doesn't score points, but at least Dems like conjur can't keep asking "Where's bin Laden?" Answer: he's in the middle east somewhere.
-SMEAR SMEAR SMEAR: the dem war-room has plenty of serious charges to hand off to the willing MSM each and every weekend running up to election. Anything they can throw out to supress the vote (sex scandals, abramhoff stuff, whatever).
-Michael Steele: Dems will reveal by anonymous sources that Steele is, in fact white, and press will devote horus and hours of coverage

october suprise--- We find out that Hillary and George W have been having an affair......lolol

 

[noproblems]

Originally posted by: johnnobts
October Surprises:

-Bob Woodward book, State of Denial (Bob already said on TV he rushed the book b/c he wanted it out before the election) ADV. DEMS
-Mark Foley: yes, this was sat on by ABC (the reporter said he knew but was too "busy" with other news) ADV. DEMS
-The economy! Dow is breaking records here. SURPRISE (I'm sure its bush's fault) ADV. REPS
-Gas Prices Low, hovering around $60 (though Huga Chavez wants gas to cost more, luckily Bush has single-handedly according to the dems kept prices low) ADV. REPS

New Surprises?
-North Korea? Kim Jong Il saber-rattling, and this is an advantage for republicans.
-Bush to announce troop withdrawls (not all troops, but maybe 20-30 thousand in key battleground states? Wouldn't be surprised). ADV Reps.
-Osama Bin Laden hiding in Dick Cheney's Closet? They finally find him, doesn't matter anymore, doesn't score points, but at least Dems like conjur can't keep asking "Where's bin Laden?" Answer: he's in the middle east somewhere.
-SMEAR SMEAR SMEAR: the dem war-room has plenty of serious charges to hand off to the willing MSM each and every weekend running up to election. Anything they can throw out to supress the vote (sex scandals, abramhoff stuff, whatever).
-Michael Steele: Dems will reveal by anonymous sources that Steele is, in fact white, and press will devote horus and hours of coverage
-------------------------
"It isn't that Liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan

It isn't that Republicans are smart: because they aren't. It's just that a majority of voters are deceived by their lies.

 

[Zebo]

Bush finally buys a clue Iraqis won't behave like Ohioans, pulls, and moves to a 24/7 bombing campaign on Iran until they scream uncle.

 

[daveshel]

I'd be pleasantly surprised to learn that the element of surprise has worn off so the surprises that have kept the republicans in power will no longer fool enough people to be effective.

 

[International Machine Consortium]

The U.S. will attack Iran.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: International Machine Consortium
The U.S. will attack Iran.

With what?


I think we're looking at them right now. A few sex scandals with timely release dates are the start of it all. I'm sure the Rs are saving a few things for release a little later as well.

The Ds had more to work with so they got an earlier start.

Gonna be an interesting month.

 

[alchemize]

We could attack Iran no problem. A couple of carrier battle groups could decimate Iran. Iran has no armor, no air force, and no air defense that can beat our air force. They could inflict some casualties back in Iraq, but we'd slaughter them militarily.

Invasion is another story.

 

[Lemon law]

I would not be surprised if Rove did have something up his sleeve---but I hope its another Boner like Terry Shaivo---that one went over like a like a lead balloon.

But basically Bush is holding on with a fingernail in Iraq--he's pushed the lobbying scandals past the election---and is probably praying don't let another of my chickens come home to roost before election.

My worry is---what GWB will do after the election.---he is up to no good no doubt.

I just hope is is not fool enough to go after Iran---but Cheney is whispering he will be a failed President if he does not.

 

[International Machine Consortium]

Whoozyerdaddy:

Originally posted by: alchemize
We could attack Iran no problem. A couple of carrier battle groups could decimate Iran. Iran has no armor, no air force, and no air defense that can beat our air force. They could inflict some casualties back in Iraq, but we'd slaughter them militarily.

Invasion is another story.

^^^^what he said.

 

[alchemize]

Lemon law: I predict Iran will come after us to provoke an attack - but I think they underestimate our capabilites/overestimate theirs. We'll retaliate, the dems will cry foul (as will the rest of the world), and the situation gets much nastier. It's a lose-lose, but Iran is in the driver's seat in the middle east right now.

 

[Moonbeam]

I have no idea.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: alchemize
I'm not thinking a big one, rather a series of small ones.

Internationally, I think Iran will up the ante in Iraq with some big attacks, hoping to push the dems into power with a small scale civil war blowing up (not too big - they don't want it to spiral out of control, just "enough" chaos". I think North Korea will test a nuke, hoping to push the dems into power, that will probably backfire. I think Al Qaida will release some tapes, maybe stage a small attack outside the US, I'm neutral on the effect of that.

Domestically, I think we'll have lots of "mini-scandals" popping up, but those are already in progress. Rove has a grand master plan up his sleeve, but of course nobody can predict that until it happens and the dems appropriately deem it "Rovian"

Gas prices are going to continue to fall, and the stock market will continue to rise.

Edit: I also predict that the Democrats will take the House, and the Republicans will retain control of the senate. Unless Diebold pulls through again, of course

There you have it, let's hear yours. Don't be afraid to don that Thinking Cap*!


*Tinfoil is the best substance to concentrate your imagination, so I hear...

You're crazy...You actually think N Korea or Iran gives a sh!t about who controls the house? Nothing they do could do could hurt the Republicans. They could test the nuke and that would strengthen the Republicans, and they could sign a deal to get rid of them and they would help the Republicans even more. There could be 500 people killed in Iraq tomorrow and it would have virtually no affect on the election, people are desensitized to the deaths in Iraq. Plus, most people don't even watch the news anyway. They do, however, see gas prices lower and their stock portfolio/retirement funds higher.

 

[International Machine Consortium]

It's* going to further alienate our allies, galvanize our enemies and turn us from slightly off the rails into a rogue, out of control World dictatorship.



*in the event we attack Iran

 

[alchemize]

ntdz: Iran would do it for several reasons. They would do it because if the dems took the house, they would be seen as a "giant killer" in the world - look what happens when Iran flexes - they can Beat Bush!! (much like the victory against Israel via their proxy army). They would also do it because they want to destabilize Iraq - Iran wants to run Iraq by proxy as well. North Korea would do it purely to strike at a weak moment...

Of course, I have my tinfoil hat on right now and I'm not thinking as clearly...or perhaps I'm thinking very clearly! Look what it's done to Moonbeam

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: alchemize
ntdz: Iran would do it for several reasons. They would do it because if the dems took the house, they would be seen as a "giant killer" in the world - look what happens when Iran flexes - they can Beat Bush!! (much like the victory against Israel via their proxy army). They would also do it because they want to destabilize Iraq - Iran wants to run Iraq by proxy as well.

Of course, I have my tinfoil hat on right now and I'm not thinking as clearly...or perhaps I'm thinking very clearly! Look what it's done to Moonbeam

They didn't beat Bush, if the Republicans lose then it will have nothing to do with Iran. There is no policy difference between the Republicans and Democrats on the issue of Iran that I know of...they both want Iran to give their nuke program up, and neither wants a military intervention.

 

[Lemon law]

If Bush attacks Iran---I very much doubt he will do it the way he went into Iraq---with a three stage plan--first months of cherry picked and bogus intelligence demonizing Iraq and scaring the public--which yields a congressional resolution giving Bush a blank check---follow by a media blitz in the UN and some vague resolution giving him some support---this time on Iran, I doubt GWB will try that--because he is too likely to get a firm NO at every step along the way.

This time---if Bush decides to go after Iran militarily---we will just wake up one day and discover Bush has already authorized the bombing of Iran and its underway.

Only later will we discover that Bush has bitten offf more than he can chew--------------AGAIN---and that he was way too optimistic AGAIN---and the American taxpayer will have to pick up the bill for resultant brainfart AGAIN.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I have no idea.

I can finally agree with moonbeam

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
I think if something happened with North Korea it would actually hurt the Republicans. Sure, the Republicans poll well on defense issues, but it would be easy (and correct) for the Dems to point out that the reason North Korea has been allowed to fester in the background is because Bush and the Republicans knew it was a threat and have done virtually nothing to solve the issues there. It's not like a North Korean issue would be a huge surprise, and the Republican failure to deal with the problem would be a HUGE strike against them.

9/11 was good for the Republicans because they could avoid most of the blame of not doing enough to stop it, imagine if 9/11 would have happened in September 2004, Bush would have been crushed in the election, no matter how strong Republicans traditionally poll on national security. When the ball is dropped, you don't want to have been the person who dropped it, and that's how ANY national security crisis is going to reflect on the Republicans at this point.


I don't know, the Swift Boat Vet bullshit comes to mind. Granted that wasn't in October, but it WAS pretty well timed, it actually had time to build and build in public before the election. October is getting a little late to change the mood of the country.

I do not see how North Korea can help the Democrats since all they talk about is getting out of Iraq, that makes them look weak in the face of danger. I just don't see the average American turning to the Democrats to "save" them from North Korea, there is a chance it helps no one directly, in other words no voters change their minds, but it would certainly drive up voter participation all around.

On Swift Vet, I don't think we can call that an October surprise because the story came out LONG before the election and the guys behind it were not part of the Republican campaign machine.

On Foley being a October surprise here is my crazy idea....
The people who planted this story 'shopped' it to the media in July and no one took it. So maybe they thought they would release it Last September and that it might take a week or two for it to build steam so to speak. Maybe they were even hoping that Foley would fight the charges since the initial e-mails were creepy, but not out right toss him out material, at least many members of the press thought. So MAYBE they hoped that Foley would fight it, and the Republicans would rally around him and then BAM they drop the sexual IMs on the media and Foley and the Republicans look really bad. Of course that is a crazy idea with no real proof, but since when has that stopped anyone on this board?