Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

Speaking of irrationality, look at the cojones on this autist!
Brothers, the time has come for the ultimate YOLO. [$780k 6/19 SPX 1500P]
Currently down $550K :O

i dont know options.
his Puts seem to be for June.
why does it matter what the market does in April and May?

 

[ponyo]

I originally thought we would retest lows around mid-Apr (and jumped into SPY 4/17 220Ps early), but that was before JPow went all brrrrrr.

Think that we trade sideways for a bit (if we break SPY ~278, we're most likely headed for 300), and ultimately retest / break through previous lows. Unfortunately in the options game, timing is absolutely critical. My 4/17 220Ps got murdered - salvaged what I could and rolled them into later IWM puts.

Speaking of irrationality, look at the cojones on this autist!
Brothers, the time has come for the ultimate YOLO. [$780k 6/19 SPX 1500P]
Currently down $550K :O

Yep. Theta will eat you alive on short term options. And you also had IV crush that tag teamed with Theta to rip you a new one.

That retard who YOLO $780 on the 6/19 SPX 1500P is now down over $550,000.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fx9y9b

And like true retard, he claims he's not worried when the puts he selected are so OTM that he needs a miracle. He needs another big drop like the one we had in March for him to even get back to his original level. It's not over until it's over, but if I was in his shoes, I would be sweating and praying everyday.

Another retard is down $900,000 on 6/19 SPY 211 puts. This retard scored huge earlier this year on SPCE leap calls and actually was up over $6 million dollars on SPCE but didn't sell. Over $6 million in profit and didn't sell. That's life changing money. He almost gave everything back and panic sold when his account dropped to $1.5 million. The only smart thing he did was he took out $500k and paid off his mortgage. And then proceeded to YOLO the remainder into 6/19 SPY 211 puts.

https://imgur.com/a/JJN0QhT

But as crazy as they are, I respect these retards because they have skin in the game and put their money where their mouth is. I been in their shoes betting over million dollars on a play and it's beyond nerve wrecking. But I've never bet that kind of money on pure options. I don't have the balls for that. It's always been on stocks at that level of commitment.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Everything is relative. I've made many mistakes in my life (market bets), and the worst always involve options.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Yup, theta and IV crush are brutal, and why you can be very wrong, even though you were very right.

Fortunately, I did not YOLO in like the retards/autists at r/wsb on those 4/17Ps.
Their idea of a properly diversified portfolio is to have a strike-spread of puts/calls
To be fair, the loss porn and sh*tposts/memes can be entertaining at times.

Have been mostly cash gang since early March, though the idea of being in theta gang sounds interesting.

 

[KB]

Another 6M+ jobless claims this week and the market is slightly up. It looks like this is one of those don't fight the Fed events. They are throwing trillions out to anyone with a pulse.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Another 6M+ jobless claims this week and the market is slightly up. It looks like this is one of those don't fight the Fed events. They are throwing trillions out to anyone with a pulse.

Remember however - there's no inflation.

Now if you will excuse me, I have one trillion dollars to spend.

 

[Cal166]

Another 6M+ jobless claims this week and the market is slightly up. It looks like this is one of those don't fight the Fed events. They are throwing trillions out to anyone with a pulse.

Market is up but we'll see if it holds at the end of the day giving there's no trading tomorrow. The timing of the announcement of the 2.3Trillion right at the release of the unemployment report.

From what I read, the disaster loan is not going well(so much confusion on the amount) and the Paycheck Protection Program, most banks already halted accepting new applications. Things are looking really bad...

 

[FelixDeCat]

n/m

 

[dasherHampton]

Everything is relative. I've made many mistakes in my life (market bets), and the worst always involve options.

Again - Sure you can lose money but its certainly possible to play it relatively safely when it come to options.

SRNE is a perfect example. I bought the 2000 shares at around $3.50 and sold $5 calls. SRNE popped to 5. So I missed out on $3000 worth of profit but still pocketed the call premiums.

When it dropped back under $3.50 I bought 2000 more. Now I've made almost $6000 selling calls and I still own the shares. As long as $4 calls are available I'll be able to sell them indefinitely until it gets called away. I hope SRNE stays right where it is, or at least doesn't rise up too much. Right around $3 would be perfect.

 

[dasherHampton]

Dang - I was thinking about buying some APA today but I slept in.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

JPow is a true meme-master.
Unemployment so high you need to bring COBOL programmers out of retirement?
Can't get a haircut?
Can't visit a strip joint?
Your grandma died?
Priced in! And stonks only go up.

 

[dasherHampton]

I have a strong feeling the dow will go negative by close.

Day traders will need to sell off, and as someone mentioned: who wants to hold over the long weekend anyway?

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Another $2T+ just released by the fed. Can't play this game when it isn't fair. Half the world's market cap of gold just released out of nowhere recently and just by the US alone. At least my short hedge is a small position but damn. On the technical side we should be seeing a pullback, but the push to the 100/200 MAs is still a very realistic scenario and would all but make this crash almost non-existent. We'll be back to late 2019 levels if we break upward here.

Meanwhile all those who have lost their jobs will return to their same wage, maybe even lower sometime in next year at pre-QEinfinite dollar values which were already crap. It must be part of the plan to further increase the wealth gaps in this country because those at the top who could actually take a loss without loss in quality-of-life can't stomach one.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Day traders will need to sell off, and as someone mentioned: who wants to hold over the long weekend anyway?

I love trading weeklies in this environment. Easy ~$1K within 2-3 hours, and not much play money down (USO $5.5 4/17c, IWM $123 4/17c)
Rigged market that is no longer coupled with economic reality (Bad news? +5% No news? +10% Good news? +15%)
Holding VXX shares rather than calls is a LOT less stressful!

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Have to laugh to myself. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" can work quite well!
Scalped USO calls earlier in the morning, now USO puts are printing

Also, looks like strong resistance level of ~123 for IWM, and ~278 for SPY

 

[dasherHampton]

Is anyone even going to open their brokerage statements for March?

Mine are sitting on my kitchen counter like a pile of toxic vomit. I might just shred them. I don't see any reason to peek.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Already did, nothing unexpected since I knew the (limited) extent to which JPow f*cked me.
Majority of my holdings had already been moved to MMs (401K + taxable) early March waiting for a reentry point below DOW ~19K.

Also this :

 

[JEDI]

Majority of my holdings had already been moved to MMs (401K + taxable) early March waiting for a reentry point below DOW ~19K.

yup same here.
but its boring just to sit and wait.
i shorted the market, waiting to go long at dow 18.9k.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

yup same here.
but its boring just to sit and wait.
i shorted the market, waiting to go long at dow 18.9k.

Heard that! Having a small (5-10%) portion of holdings as "play money" offers plenty of profit and excitement in the meantime.

Like that time when I somehow fatfingered an order and bought 4/3 IWM puts on 4/2 (wrong date). Still came out with a profit, but boy was I sweating bullets especially EOD 4/2
In r/wsb terms, I 💎✋ the crap out of those 4/3 puts

 

[njdevilsfan87]

The world is printing trillions to keep this broken monetary system going. It's going to either result in hyperinflation or stagflation (probably the latter).

Gold up to $1750. It's forming a very similar pattern that Bitcoin back in 2017 - although aver a much longer time period, before it broke out to extreme new ATHs. I don't think it'll stop at "only $2000" when it does...

 

[FelixDeCat]

The world is printing trillions to keep this broken monetary system going. It's going to either result in hyperinflation or stagflation (probably the latter).

Gold up to $1750. It's forming a very similar pattern that Bitcoin back in 2017 - although aver a much longer time period, before it broke out to extreme new ATHs. I don't think it'll stop at "only $2000" when it does...

There is a disconnect right now. The normal difference between spot prices and gold you can buy online or in a local shop is about $50 per ounce over spot to buy and $50 under to sell.

Right now spot is around $1752, but if you want to buy, the cheapest 1 ounce government gold coins I can find right now are close to $1830, lots are at or near $1900. 1 ounce government silver (in 20 ounce tubes) is about $23 an ounce. You can buy rounds for less, but I hate those because they dont get the same premium when you sell because retailers have to offer a discount to move them.

Right now however local gold/silver shops in DFW all claim to be out of government gold and silver bullion. They claim to have been wiped out by fearful hoards of "investors". I know, I do bidness with lots of them. I think what really happened is some of them are holding back inventory because of the volatility. Many have since shut their doors due to this and the lockdowns.

If you are lucky you might find small pieces of bullion like 1/10th ounce of gold or you might see rounds for sale or 5/10 ounce bars of silver. FAIRLY PRICED old silver coins are also getting harder to find (junk silver). If you want to pay a hefty premium you can have anything you want, but you arent going to find any bargains right now.

TLDR -

SPOT gold is $1752 and SPOT silver is $16.05 .....
Cheapest RETAIL gold is $1830 and RETAIL silver is $23+ (minted by any government for guaranteed weight/content/purity).

 

[njdevilsfan87]

The disconnect between paper silver and bullion is really high right now. Like you said, ~$24 on APMEX and other retailers. Nearly 50% premium. Gold actually isn't too bad. Losing 5-10% on spot between a buy and sell is about expected. But silver... what is going on there? Has such a disconnect like this ever happened - maybe during the last PM bull run?

 

[FelixDeCat]

The disconnect between paper silver and bullion is really high right now. Like you said, ~$24 on APMEX and other retailers. Nearly 50% premium. Gold actually isn't too bad. Losing 5-10% on spot between a buy and sell is about expected. But silver... what is going on there? Has such a disconnect like this ever happened - maybe during the last PM bull run?

The last time gold was this high was 2011. At the same time, silver over $50 FREAKIN' DOLLARS PER OUNCE!! During this period I was going through some tough times financially and could not afford to buy or sell bullion. So I can only draw from current experience as a frame of reference for current spreads.

As I mentioned the usual buy / sell spread for physical gold is $50 an ounce and $2 for silver. Right now gold commands roughly a $100 premium over spot and silver spread is absolutely nuts!

I think once we cross $2,000 gold and $20 silver hopefully we find a base, prices stabilize and the bid/ask difference goes back to $50/$2.

The neat thing about buying from the most reputable sellers on Ebay (100,000+ feedback) is that I can buy at 0% financing with Paypal and sellers sometimes have deals of only $19 over spot. But I havent seen any deals since COVID hit America.

 

[ponyo]

The disconnect between paper silver and bullion is really high right now. Like you said, ~$24 on APMEX and other retailers. Nearly 50% premium. Gold actually isn't too bad. Losing 5-10% on spot between a buy and sell is about expected. But silver... what is going on there? Has such a disconnect like this ever happened - maybe during the last PM bull run?

Back in 2008, paper silver dropped around 50% from $19 to around $9.50 when the stock market crashed. It was same thing then. You couldn't find physical silver and if you could, people were asking around $12-$15 over spot for it. It's a repeat. Silver spike to almost $50 in 2011 before crashing again.

I didn't have any physical silver or gold back then. This time I have whole bunch. I was pretty close to selling all my physical gold, silver, and platinum late last year to early this year. Only my laziness stopped me from selling. Now I'm kind of glad I didn't. I have zero interest in buying physical metals right now. I have more than enough to last multiple lifetimes. I am tempted to sell some of my gold, especially the pre-33 US gold. Premium is stupid right now. The $20 gold Liberty Head I was buying for around $1,100 back in 2018 are going for around $1,800 right now. Those Liberty Head only have .9675 oz of gold.

Around 2017-2018, the European banks were flooding the market with pre-33 US gold they had stored before WW2. So the market for pre-33 US gold crashed, and I was able to buy $20 gold Liberty Head and St. Gaudens Double Eagles for spot or under all day long. There used to be big premium on the pre-33 US gold before the European banks flooded the market. Which is why I avoided pre-33 US gold even though those are my favorite gold coins. But I took advantage in 2018 and bought pre-33 gold because of the price collapse. I was able to buy things like MS-64 gold Double Eagles for less than $1,200. Now those are selling for over $2,000 each.

 

[ponyo]

If we see repeat of silver to ~$50, I will sell all my physical silver without hesitation. I will call up Apmex and sell it all with one phone call.