Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,815
143
106
People who muddle in their funds tend to do far, far worse than the market as a whole. This includes people who are day traders, market timers, gamblers, inept, scared, too conservative, too aggressive, etc. So, to answer your question, many people did NOT rise back up to their previous highs.

But if you do the simple, tried-and-true advice to just stick to S&P funds (such as Warren Buffet's suggestion to just put 90% of your money in a low-cost S&P 500 fund), then you probably are close to back. You'll be down whatever fees you paid. But, you'll be up anything that you invested in the last 2 years as you would have bought low and they will have increased.
For that fund to catch some of the Magnificent 7 I'm guessing it senses high/low market cap as one of its sensors?
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,521
3,427
136
People who muddle in their funds tend to do far, far worse than the market as a whole. This includes people who are day traders, market timers, gamblers, inept, scared, too conservative, too aggressive, etc. So, to answer your question, many people did NOT rise back up to their previous highs.

But if you do the simple, tried-and-true advice to just stick to S&P funds (such as Warren Buffet's suggestion to just put 90% of your money in a low-cost S&P 500 fund), then you probably are close to back. You'll be down whatever fees you paid. But, you'll be up anything that you invested in the last 2 years as you would have bought low and they will have increased.
You’ll be up reinvested dividends as well which dwarf any fees paid to typical SPY and total market tracking funds.
 
Reactions: dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,165
3,586
126
For that fund to catch some of the Magnificent 7 I'm guessing it senses high/low market cap as one of its sensors?
I'm not sure that I understand your question. The topic was the S&P500 record and if investors returned to where they were 2 years ago. My answer was if they invested primarily in the S&P500, then the answer is yes. That has nothing at all to do with catching up to the Magnificent 7.

S&P tracking funds do not have sensors. They just buy stocks in the 503 largest publicaly traded companies in the US weighted by how big the companies are. Thus, S&P500 funds have more Apple (a large company) than Alaska Air (a smaller company). So, by default, the S&P500 funds are mostly the Magnificent 7. For example, here is Vanguard's S&P500 fund, 28.4% of its holdings are the Magnificent 7: https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo#portfolio-composition
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,521
3,427
136
Interestingly, I can make the claim to fame that I bought a big chunk of Fidelity’s S&P500 tracker mutual fund at the all time high on January 3, 2022. This was in a couple old 401ks — I did an exchange for the growth stock oriented funds I had in there on that date. I haven’t contributed to or touched those accounts since so they’ve been perfect representations of a 100% SPY account bought at the all time high. They are now up by 2.3% after fees and dividends, despite the fund still being slightly down.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,292
2,903
126
My time-weighted rate of return YTD sits at 31.5% as of yesterday. S&P 500 is at 26.2%. Have dividends coming in this week and next.
 
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PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,815
143
106
I'm not sure that I understand your question. The topic was the S&P500 record and if investors returned to where they were 2 years ago. My answer was if they invested primarily in the S&P500, then the answer is yes. That has nothing at all to do with catching up to the Magnificent 7.

S&P tracking funds do not have sensors. They just buy stocks in the 503 largest publicaly traded companies in the US weighted by how big the companies are. Thus, S&P500 funds have more Apple (a large company) than Alaska Air (a smaller company). So, by default, the S&P500 funds are mostly the Magnificent 7. For example, here is Vanguard's S&P500 fund, 28.4% of its holdings are the Magnificent 7: https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo#portfolio-composition
Thanks, that answers how they or it selects the stocks.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,265
2,081
126
My speculative trading account got killed last year going from $15k to $4k at the end of 2022. Went back up to 8k by April 2023, but hit a new low in late September.

Then the market lost its mind the past 90 days and so did I. I bought every crazy speculative stock and went all in. So I pivoted from the low of 2.5k, added 2.5k more and am finishing the year at $34,340, up 552% since late September:





Although trading is unpredictable and you never what is going to happen next. Next year could be good, bad or indifferent. I am also pulling back in the reigns some not betting the ranch on every trade (just a barn or feed through), so returns might not be so great next year.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,786
12,299
126
www.anyf.ca
My ESPP has been showing a loss this year which is the first time that I can remember as our stock is like $20 below what it was last year. But it just means it will be bigger gains when it goes back up. I'm still buying 12% each pay cheque.

My next big purchase is probably going to be to reroof the house, since I'm due and should really start thinking about doing it in next few years, so hopefully it goes back up in next few years. Going to hire it out so won't be cheap.
 
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repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,521
3,427
136
But it just means it will be bigger gains when it goes back up.
No, that’s not necessarily what it means at all.

It is starting to make sense why you complain about money and cost of living so much. You’ve managed to lose money on 12% of your paycheck in a year when the market as a whole is up like 25%. If you put that 12% or more into a diversified US Stock Market fund like a normal person instead of a losing ESPP stock and silver you’d be building up a nice chunk of savings.

I give you this painful truth to help you. Just autobuy VTI or FSKAX.



And just for fun, investing in this fund since the arbitrary date that this particular total market tracker opened barely a decade ago you’d have almost tripled (edit: quadrupled!) your money.

 
Last edited:
Reactions: Brainonska511
Dec 10, 2005
24,296
7,155
136
No, that’s not necessarily what it means at all.

It is starting to make sense why you complain about money and cost of living so much. You’ve managed to lose money on 12% of your paycheck in a year when the market as a whole is up like 25%. If you put that 12% or more into a diversified US Stock Market fund like a normal person instead of a losing ESPP stock and silver you’d be building up a nice chunk of savings.

I give you this painful truth to help you. Just autobuy VTI or FSKAX.

View attachment 90800

And just for fun, investing in this fund since the arbitrary date that this particular total market tracker opened barely a decade ago you’d have almost tripled your money.

View attachment 90801
Good luck, tried explaining this before, nevermind the relatively large risk of having substantial savings in your employer while also relying on them to pay you your salary....
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,165
3,586
126
Good luck, tried explaining this before, nevermind the relatively large risk of having substantial savings in your employer while also relying on them to pay you your salary....
I just came here to post that. Putting both your retirement and income into the same basket--what could go wrong? He only risks losing his nest egg AND opportunity to recover the nest egg all if one bad event happens. Sounds great!
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,265
2,081
126
Container prices are up due to trouble from the Middle East and trains from Mexico are now being blocked to demigrant them.

Supply constraints? Inflation!
 
Last edited:

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,292
2,903
126
One of my 401Ks went back to the same value as on the 19th. Right down to the exact penny. What are the odds?
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,368
27,559
136
Out of curiosity, I looked up the stock price of one of my clients. The stock had dropped by a penny. This was a one day drop of 29% in it's value.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,786
12,299
126
www.anyf.ca
No, that’s not necessarily what it means at all.

It is starting to make sense why you complain about money and cost of living so much. You’ve managed to lose money on 12% of your paycheck in a year when the market as a whole is up like 25%. If you put that 12% or more into a diversified US Stock Market fund like a normal person instead of a losing ESPP stock and silver you’d be building up a nice chunk of savings.

I give you this painful truth to help you. Just autobuy VTI or FSKAX.

View attachment 90800

And just for fun, investing in this fund since the arbitrary date that this particular total market tracker opened barely a decade ago you’d have almost tripled (edit: quadrupled!) your money.

View attachment 90801


I have no idea how to do that and there's lot of paperwork involved to deal with US investment instruments. The ESPP is done automatically and company contributes a certain percentage too if I contribute. When the stock goes back up, I will get a profit. Buy low, sell high.
 
Last edited:

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,786
12,299
126
www.anyf.ca
I just came here to post that. Putting both your retirement and income into the same basket--what could go wrong? He only risks losing his nest egg AND opportunity to recover the nest egg all if one bad event happens. Sounds great!

This is not for retirement, this is just spending money. It's how I bought my 40 acre property. I have RSPPs for retirement and pension through work.
 
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