Our supposed EV future....(updated)

[Commodus]

I'm really eager to see how Tesla's fabled $25K EV fares. The rumors bill it as a hatchback-like car that would be more for commuting than long trips, but at that price it almost wouldn't matter — you'd still come out on top if you had to rent an ICE car or PHEV for a couple of weeks each year.

Also, people don't always touch on how EVs are typically more reliable than ICE cars, which could be particularly important in the $25K segment. Not having to drop a couple grand (maybe more) every year just to keep your car working is a big deal, even if there's probably a battery replacement coming after several years. I'd add that battery replacements should get cheaper as the technology improves.

 

[Ken g6]

I'd add that battery replacements should get cheaper as the technology improves.

Generally true, but I don't think it will be with "Tesla's fabled $25K EV", because that car will have the batteries built into the frame.

 

[manly]

I'm really eager to see how Tesla's fabled $25K EV fares. The rumors bill it as a hatchback-like car that would be more for commuting than long trips, but at that price it almost wouldn't matter — you'd still come out on top if you had to rent an ICE car or PHEV for a couple of weeks each year.

Also, people don't always touch on how EVs are typically more reliable than ICE cars, which could be particularly important in the $25K segment. Not having to drop a couple grand (maybe more) every year just to keep your car working is a big deal, even if there's probably a battery replacement coming after several years. I'd add that battery replacements should get cheaper as the technology improves.

For the vast majority of consumers, everyday reliability is extremely important. Unlikely early BEV adopters, most people don't have a spare car lying around for when their brand new Tesla is stuck in service because QC doesn't care about panel gaps, or roofs and seats being securely bolted down.

In all seriousness, the "Model 2" will squarely compete against the Corollas and Civics of the world, which are already very reliable. ICE drivetrains do require more maintenance over time, but not to the tune of a couple grand every year. FWIW, Consumer Reports latest survey ranked Tesla #25 (out of 26) in brand reliability.

Battery supply/economics is the biggest unresolved question. I'm assuming that Tesla will target a $29.5k entry price with at least 200 miles of range (more likely closer to 250). I don't see them releasing a $25k vehicle with < 200 miles range because a commuter car seems to go against Elon Musk's stated philosophy.

 

[ondma]

If I was going to rent a car for a vacation, regardless of what I own, it's heavy rationalizing to only complain about if you own an EV.

That makes about as much sense as complaining about the high cost of air travel, only if you own an EV. Because the extra cost of Air travel is more onerous because the EV costs more than a "normal" car.

Obviously, this is a non sequitur at its finest. If one decides to fly, you will buy the ticket no matter what your car, in contrast making the trip by car, and being forced to pay for a rental when you would not have to do so if you own an ICE vehicle.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Generally true, but I don't think it will be with "Tesla's fabled $25K EV", because that car will have the batteries built into the frame.

Yeah I'm not a fan of that approach. But Tesla is basically against right to repair so it totally makes sense for them to do that. It's bad enough that $1,000+ phones are designed to make them hard to repair but when you pay several 10's of thousands for something like a car everything should absolutely be repairable. Also when a car is a write off insurance might require it's destroyed, instead of the batteries recycled. Insurance companies can be assholes and they don't give a rat's ass about the environment. At least with removable batteries they can be repurposed for something else after. Lot of people use them for solar.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Obviously, this is a non sequitur at its finest. If one decides to fly, you will buy the ticket no matter what your car, in contrast making the trip by car, and being forced to pay for a rental when you would not have to do so if you own an ICE vehicle.

You replied to my post, where the context was a vacation where you were going to rent a different car anyway, which I have done MANY times despite owning another ICE car, just as many other people do who own ICE cars.

But somehow it's only a problem to you if someone owns an EV. That's just hypocrisy.

 

[Ken g6]

I read an interesting NYT article today.

Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road? (Published 2021)

A new car sold today can last a decade or two before retiring. This “fleet turnover” poses a major challenge for climate policy.

www.nytimes.com

And they said...

Pshaw. Unless state governments meddle in the free-markets and try to stupidly outlaw ICE vehicles, they should be available for purchase for pretty much the rest of our lifetimes.

Bad news for you then, Governments are gonna meddle significantly.

What's missing from a lot of these discussions is how we can also move towards a future that doesn't require 1:1 ICE:EV replacement and that the. We need to remember that the currently built world didn't appear overnight, and it won't change overnight. EV plans should include other items like transit-oriented development, bicycle infrastructure, and even electric bike subsidies; these things could spur many households to move from 2 cars to 0-1.

... pretty much these.

What about hybrids? I've stated before that would be only (semi) EV I would be interested in. This way I have a trusty ICE engine to fall back on.

I'm starting to think standards for PHEVs are the way to go.

1. Any ICE in all cars must only turn an electric generator. Not the wheels and not anything like the A/C.
2. All cars must have a certain plug in EV range.

These should be nearly as good as a full EV mandate, but I think they are much easier to swallow.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I'm starting to think standards for PHEVs are the way to go.

1. Any ICE in all cars must only turn an electric generator. Not the wheels and not anything like the A/C.
2. All cars must have a certain plug in EV range.

These should be nearly as good as a full EV mandate, but I think they are much easier to swallow.

The ICE bans that are incoming, are "ICE bans", not "must have battery plans", so PHEVs won't be the way to go if you are looking for new cars in the post ban era, because they won't exist.

Unless you are suggesting that you are somehow going to change all the ICE bans, into PHEV plans? Good luck with that crusade.

Also most PHEVs kind of suck, being really slow in EV mode, where you theoretically want to drive them most of the time, and on a pretty short horizon, will be more expensive that decent pure EV, and more complex, and higher maintenance.

PHEVs are like EV with training wheels. A short term stop gap.

The best PHEV ever on the market was the Chevy Volt, which GM abandoned for pure EVs like the Bolt. Since they see the market realities, unfolding everywhere.

 

[Ken g6]

Unless you are suggesting that you are somehow going to change all the ICE bans, into PHEV plans? Good luck with that crusade.

I'm suggesting people are going to push back against the ICE bans so hard they won't be enacted, or won't be effective. People may either repair cars like Cuba does, or shops may mod electric cars to have gasoline generators. I'm suggesting the latter (electric cars with gas generators, like that Chevy Volt) is better than the former, and should be a target to aim for.

 

[Brainonska511]

I'm suggesting people are going to push back against the ICE bans so hard they won't be enacted, or won't be effective. People may either repair cars like Cuba does, or shops may mod electric cars to have gasoline generators. I'm suggesting the latter (electric cars with gas generators, like that Chevy Volt) is better than the former, and should be a target to aim for.

PHEVs could have been part of the solution of there had been more large scale adoption 10 years ago. Instead, people saw cheap gas and have flocked to unnecessarily large land barges.

I think what you'll see (and what we need), instead of an outright ban on ICE vehicles, since that would be politically unpopular, you'll see greater movement towards things that discourage a lot of driving in the first place: things like removing public parking from cities, increased costs for public parking, car free streets, up-charges such as congestion pricing and higher gas taxes, and ending needless highway expansion projects. And I'm sure many of these measures could be quite popular - turns out people like cities designed around people instead of automobiles.

Unfortunately, because we didn't take the necessary steps since 2000 that could have greatly eased our transition off fossil fuels, were going to see more dramatic action occuring.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I'm suggesting people are going to push back against the ICE bans so hard they won't be enacted, or won't be effective. People may either repair cars like Cuba does, or shops may mod electric cars to have gasoline generators. I'm suggesting the latter (electric cars with gas generators, like that Chevy Volt) is better than the former, and should be a target to aim for.

This sounds more like you are somewhere between the denial and bargaining stages of dealing with change.

This isn't just one company or one country implementing this change, it's multiple countries and multiple companies, and all headed on the same trajectory.

That the Chevy Volt is already cancelled, shows that option already lost.

There won't be a massive pushback, because by the time the bans come, EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars and most people will already be buying EVs.

There will be a minority ineffectually railing against change, as there always is. You can be part of that minority if you choose to.

 

[Ken g6]

This sounds more like you are somewhere between the denial and bargaining stages of dealing with change.

That might be accurate. I've been looking into bargaining for a new car, and I've denied that an EV currently works for my current situation.

That the Chevy Volt is already cancelled, shows that option already lost.

You seem to be hung up on the Volt. There aren't many good PHEVs out there currently, but the Toyota RAV4 Prime is one. Nissan is introducing Volt-style HEVs (no plugin, unfortunately, yet.) I linked to that one and another system earlier.

There will be a minority ineffectually railing against change, as there always is. You can be part of that minority if you choose to.

I think, at least in the USA, it's going to be a big minority. I'm much more pro-EV than a lot of people.

 

[sandorski]

The Market and Consumer Choice can go fuck themselves when it comes to issues where continuing the status quo is a mortal danger to future generations of people.

 

[manly]

LMAO there is approx. 0.001% chance that future U.S. car ownership will resemble that of frozen-in-time Cuba. Nor will people buy an EV to pay thousands more for a bolt-on ICE powertrain (really? Where would this even go, in the frunk?). Nobody is banning used autos, and ICE and gas fueling infrastructure will stick around for our lifetimes if you insist on being a Luddite. The reality is that CARB and the EU will largely set what the new cars market will look like, but I suspect the U.S. will allow a fairly slow phase-out for "light trucks."

 

[Heartbreaker]

You seem to be hung up on the Volt. There aren't many good PHEVs out there currently, but the Toyota RAV4 Prime is one. Nissan is introducing Volt-style HEVs (no plugin, unfortunately, yet.) I linked to that one and another system earlier.

You used the Volt again as the example in your reply, so I pointed out again that it was dead. Yes we can Congratulate Toyota on building a PHEV with as much range as the Volt only a decade later. No sure what Volt like system without a plug delivers. The Volt power combiner is similar to a Prius... Without a big battery and a plug it's just a hybrid.

I think, at least in the USA, it's going to be a big minority. I'm much more pro-EV than a lot of people.

Are we supposed to cheer that the USA has a strong regressive element to it's society? You can go protest change with these guys:

 

[FelixDeCat]

I read an interesting NYT article today.

Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road? (Published 2021)

A new car sold today can last a decade or two before retiring. This “fleet turnover” poses a major challenge for climate policy.

www.nytimes.com

And they said...





... pretty much these.



I'm starting to think standards for PHEVs are the way to go.

1. Any ICE in all cars must only turn an electric generator. Not the wheels and not anything like the A/C.
2. All cars must have a certain plug in EV range.

These should be nearly as good as a full EV mandate, but I think they are much easier to swallow.

Good post Ken!

I am noticing more commercials for hybrids being advertised lately. I think having cars that can run on multiple sources of energy (not just batteries, etc.) is the smartest way to go and apparently the biggest automakers seem to agree.

 

[drnickriviera]

Good post Ken!

I am noticing more commercials for hybrids being advertised lately. I think having cars that can run on multiple sources of energy (not just batteries, etc.) is the smartest way to go and apparently the biggest automakers seem to agree.

I'm sure the automakers will love to sell you a more complex vehicle with more systems to repair. I'm sure they are thinking long and hard about repair facilities at dealerships. What will they do if an ev requires less repairs? Don't they make most of their profit on service?

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm sure the automakers will love to sell you a more complex vehicle with more systems to repair. I'm sure they are thinking long and hard about repair facilities at dealerships. What will they do if an ev requires less repairs? Don't they make most of their profit on service?

I've driven "more complex" vehicles since 1985 and it's never really mattered either way.

While long term maintenance is certainly a consideration....I think diversified power sources for transportation might be relevant since most new car buyers sell within the first 5 years.

Just my opinion though.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Who buys a car to get rid of it after only 5 years? That seems like a really stupid financial decision. Even cars I buy used I tend to keep longer. My last one I kept for 7 years. It's only my first car that I kept for only a few years, but it was on it's last legs so I made it last as long as was economically feasible. I wish aluminium and stainless steel was more common in cars, as they usually die due to rust, and not drive train issues. Will be interesting to see how the cybertruck fairs out in 10-20 years from now.

If I bought new I'd want it to last most of my life. Unfortunately they are just not built that way, which is why I can't justify new.

 

[ondma]

Who buys a car to get rid of it after only 5 years? That seems like a really stupid financial decision. Even cars I buy used I tend to keep longer. My last one I kept for 7 years. It's only my first car that I kept for only a few years, but it was on it's last legs so I made it last as long as was economically feasible. I wish aluminium and stainless steel was more common in cars, as they usually die due to rust, and not drive train issues. Will be interesting to see how the cybertruck fairs out in 10-20 years from now.

If I bought new I'd want it to last most of my life. Unfortunately they are just not built that way, which is why I can't justify new.

A lot of people do it. If one doesnt care about the cost, it allows you to have a car pretty much under warranty all the time, and to not worry about service except for routine maintainence.

Another reason to get a new car now is to get the latest in safety tech and electronics features. My latest car has android auto (Google maps navigation) and adaptive cruise, and find them both to be invaluable.

Overall though, I agree with you. Unless the car is unusually troublesome or I am looking for a specific new feature, I tend to keep it until it dies.

 

[Viper GTS]

I doubt I'll ever own another car for 5 years unless it's a toy that I just absolutely love. New cars are wonderful and I have no desire to own old shit.

And actually now that I think about it, I think the Viper was the only car I ever owned for over five years. My Mustang GT came close.

Viper GTS

 

[Heartbreaker]

Who buys a car to get rid of it after only 5 years?

Wealthy people? People scared of maintenance?

 

[manly]

Who buys a car to get rid of it after only 5 years? That seems like a really stupid financial decision. Even cars I buy used I tend to keep longer. My last one I kept for 7 years. It's only my first car that I kept for only a few years, but it was on it's last legs so I made it last as long as was economically feasible. I wish aluminium and stainless steel was more common in cars, as they usually die due to rust, and not drive train issues. Will be interesting to see how the cybertruck fairs out in 10-20 years from now.

If I bought new I'd want it to last most of my life. Unfortunately they are just not built that way, which is why I can't justify new.

It's definitely a "really stupid" financial decision because you're eating the worst part of the depreciation curve. On a related note, it's funny that some people think leasing a car is a slam dunk because the payments are low, when almost all leases guarantee you're paying the normal 3 year depreciation (some brands inflate the residual value to push more metal out the door, but this ultimately catches up to the automaker). If you're wealthy and derive enjoyment out of the late model car experience, more power to you. I can't speak for rest of world, but Americans often buy more car than they can afford and don't really understand how new car depreciation factors into total cost of ownership (TCO). To be clear, I understand that maintenance and repairs can become expensive and by no means am I suggesting we should continue driving old clunkers around until they're worthless.

The statistic you normally see is that the average car on U.S. roads is about 10 years old. I'm not sure you can believe that most new car buyers are getting out within the first five years. Maybe if that includes leases and fleet cars. And besides, I don't see how that's relevant to the OP's "point"? We need hybrid powertrains because people sell their cars after 5 years? What does that even mean? Again, there will be a long phase-out for ICE or hybrids, and gasoline infrastructure will be around for a long time yet.

 

[Viper GTS]

It's definitely a "really stupid" financial decision because you're eating the worst part of the depreciation curve. On a related note, it's funny that some people think leasing a car is a slam dunk because the payments are low, when almost all leases guarantee you're paying the normal 3 year depreciation (some brands inflate the residual value to push more metal out the door, but this ultimately catches up to the automaker). If you're wealthy and derive enjoyment out of the late model car experience, more power to you. I can't speak for rest of world, but Americans often buy more car than they can afford and don't really understand how new car depreciation factors into total cost of ownership (TCO). To be clear, I understand that maintenance and repairs can become expensive and by no means am I suggesting we should continue driving old clunkers around until they're worthless.

The statistic you normally see is that the average car on U.S. roads is about 10 years old. I'm not sure you can believe that most new car buyers are getting out within the first five years. Maybe if that includes leases and fleet cars. And besides, I don't see how that's relevant to the OP's "point"? We need hybrid powertrains because people sell their cars after 5 years? What does that even mean? Again, there will be a long phase-out for ICE or hybrids, and gasoline infrastructure will be around for a long time yet.

Here's the total TCO of my wife's 2015 CX-5 Grand Touring w/technology package (essentially maxed out minus a couple dealer installed options) that she owned from new 11/2014 to 7/2020. We would have been rid of it sooner but covid slowed the sale.



Really not that bad. She put 85,000 miles on it in that time.

My 2017 Focus RS was far more expensive mostly due to extremely low miles driven on it. I moved, my commute needs changed. Ended up spending about $10k for three years of ownership. Still not terrible, and 100% worth it because that car was brilliant just not appropriate for my needs.

The 2020 Tesla Model 3 Performance I refinanced recently at about 1 year of ownership and 15k miles. Bank says it's worth 5k more than the day I bought it. Let's say I could sell it and lose 10k there as well. I'm at a total of about $36,000 in 7 years to drive reasonably new cars. Well worth it IMO.

If people are smart about what they buy and when/how they sell the losses do not have to be huge. I'm not saying everyone should be doing this, but with reasonable income level the cost of doing so is negligible.

Viper GTS

 

[manly]

Here's the total TCO of my wife's 2015 CX-5 Grand Touring w/technology package (essentially maxed out minus a couple dealer installed options) that she owned from new 11/2014 to 7/2020. We would have been rid of it sooner but covid slowed the sale.

View attachment 41115

Really not that bad. She put 85,000 miles on it in that time.

My 2017 Focus RS was far more expensive mostly due to extremely low miles driven on it. I moved, my commute needs changed. Ended up spending about $10k for three years of ownership. Still not terrible, and 100% worth it because that car was brilliant just not appropriate for my needs.

The 2020 Tesla Model 3 Performance I refinanced recently at about 1 year of ownership and 15k miles. Bank says it's worth 5k more than the day I bought it. Let's say I could sell it and lose 10k there as well. I'm at a total of about $36,000 in 7 years to drive reasonably new cars. Well worth it IMO.

If people are smart about what they buy and when/how they sell the losses do not have to be huge. I'm not saying everyone should be doing this, but with reasonable income level the cost of doing so is negligible.

Viper GTS

I know you're one person that keeps detailed TCO spreadsheets in this sub-forum. I also did say that wealthy people can do whatever they want to, including leasing new cars. As you may have alluded to, for some drivers or enthusiasts, there is some (unknown) economic value to driving a newer car.

At any rate, your personal numbers really don't apply to most car owners. Your wife was reimbursed $21k for company miles? The average person doesn't get to do that. Insurance cost is not listed, and is usually a not insignificant cost item. Looks like the CX-5 was highly reliable, and incurred no repair costs out of warranty. Covid-19 probably helped your resale value a bit, but that's a minor effect in the grand scheme. But obviously the reimbursement covered nearly the entire depreciation over 66 months.

You're right that there are ways to be sensible car buyers, but the math itself is pretty simple. If you lease new cars, or buy new and sell before 5 years of ownership, the depreciation is going to be pretty substantial. We can argue the degree, as some cars have much better RV than others (i.e. Tesla Model 3, or most desirable light trucks & SUVs). The average new auto sale is $40k, and the average new pickup truck sale is $50k. Outside of relatively few cars that depreciate slowly, there's just no way that you can avoid a high TCO by buying a brand new car. Edmunds has TCO calculators for new and used cars, and it's pretty shocking to run these (IMO their cost figures are too high and represent a worst case scenario).

Cost of Car Ownership - 5-Year Cost Calculator | Edmunds.com

Calculate the cost of owning a car new or used vehicle over the next 5 years. Edmunds True Cost to Own® (TCO®) takes depreciation. loan interest, taxes & fees, fuel, maintenance and repairs into account.

www.edmunds.com