The easiest and most effective way to solve all of those problems is to remove as many of the unquantifiable variables as you can.
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So you want those "generally incompetent" humans designing a self driving car and network and not give you last minute control to over-ride it should the software be defective or fail? OK, whatever.
Seriously, though, I still think full self driving is going to be very much more difficult than some in this forum are projecting. I think you can design some sort of automated driving system for limited areas, based on a designed network, much like light rail. But to attain full self driving in all weather conditions, in all areas, is a formidable task. There are just so many variables and unexpected emergencies that can arise, and the car must either be programmed ahead to recognize them all, or must have AI competent enough to determine what to do in an unplanned emergency.
Since all of these trim packages and functions will be available in the hardware at every trim level you purchase, I can't image that whatever security the manufacturers use to approve the installations through their store purchases won't be defeated by some ODB code trickery at the user level.
Anyone buying a Bimmer or Merc knows the upsell is going to be there and has the money to do so.
You don't get safety without a few dead bodies, so I would check your hubris and optimism at the door. Humans don't know how to deal with safety matters until they manifest themselves; the birth of car starters and Volvo in general being two examples. The difference is coding for the contingency instead of designing the hardware to make it "hands-free" in the case of the starter or simply putting into the engineering of the car safety, as in the case with Volvo.So first, the current average life of a car is about 12 years. And second, we wouldn't be scrapping those cars, per se, they would just be superficilous, unless they had some other collectible value. Which would be no different than today. Which also BTW is why this all of this change, from ICE to EV to AV, will be organic and market-driven. Consumers will demand these changes. Just wait and see.
I totally don't see it working around me! Loads of rural single track roads with farm machinery moving around on it. Lots of car parking in the countryside is basically a field. Junctions that only work if you can see the other driver and communicate with them.Somehow the idea of a self-driving automobile makes me nauseous.
I have friends with 2017 vehicle models who complain about the car "taking over" when they come too close to a curb. But coming close to a curb is exactly what I do, when I want to get over a speed bump more smoothly and at least avoid having all four wheels encounter it. This doesn't mean that I don't slow down, as speed bumps are meant to compel you doing, but that I want less of a jolt at 5 mph. So I drive one side of the car . . . close . . to the curb.
I could see "robotic" driving vehicles for long trips. But if I were traveling up California's Coast Highway Rt. 1, I would neither trust the vehicle doing it without my intervention, nor would I want the feature to be operational.
I'm a 20th century Rocka-Roller. I intend to keep my 26-year-old Trooper until I'm ready to punch my ticket into the next life. I paid my "carbon-footprint" dues for 20 years driving Honda Civics, with a trick left clutch-pedal knee and back pains that persist today. I averaged 30 mpg and 12,000 miles per year. I paid my dues. So I'm keeping the Trooper in tip-top condition, to drive 2,500 miles per year with 15 mpg.
And I don't want any self-driving automobile . . . Even that Suburu commercial with the young family trying to back out of their driveway on a rainy morning gives me an upset stomach. Trim the hedges and get better rearview mirrors, fah Godsake!
And if I have my choice about being commander of the Starship Enterprise and Sky King "out of the blue of the western sky" -- it's Sky King all the way.
And I want the yoke steering wheel on the Cybertruck.
Your original post is textbook FUD and full of inaccuracies. It's just standard anti-EV ranting.
Yeah, no FUD there.
"They" aren't taking away your personal car, it's about people realizing that they save significant money, by switching from an ownership model, to car sharing model, when self driving significantly drops the costs of car sharing.
When I lived in suburbs and worked in the city core, parking in the city core alone was ~$300 month, and many apartment building in the city you can pay near that to have a parking spot as well. That $600/month, or $7200/year just for parking. Add that to car payments, insurance, gas, maintenance, and you are looking at $10000 to $15000 per year to own your own car in the city.
Now if you can get self driving car sharing for $5000/year, you save a pile of money ditching your car, and many people will jump on that voluntarily.
It's already happening on the small scale, but the economics aren't that great for most people yet:
Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017 | TechCrunch
Lyft has a new report out detailing its 'economic impact' for 2017, and the document includes a lot of stats on its performance throughout the year. Thetechcrunch.com
But if you eliminate the biggest expense (The driver) then the economics get much better for a LOT more people, and you don't have to deal with potentially annoying drivers.
wow few questions, how do you not use your brakes? How fast does your car charge at your house? how much do you pay for electricity? I feel like driving a long distance would be annoying as i dont want to stop for 30 mins to eat (now days what you sit on the curb at eat while you charge for 30-45 mins?) if i planned a trip to zion i wonder how much extra time it would take me to stop and charge or change my destination to allow for charging stations.This has been addressed by others, no one is forcing anyone to do anything. It is up to the consumer/marketplace. I do see EV's coming down to price parity with ICE vehicles within 5-7 years.
Agree, though I think a lot of people think the downsides are worse than they are. It costs more to be on the leading edge of a market always. Costs will keep coming down and down. It will get cheaper when they improve batteries even more by removing cobalt etc... I only bought it because of the fact that my employer gave me some cash towards it and the tax break. Used prices continue to be high mostly because demand and supply.
Having owned a EV, I found that there has been little to no downsides so far. There are the concerns I had and how they have been worked out.
Now to the massive benefits I've seen:
- Range - I get ~250-300 miles of range and that is more than I'd ever need. If I travel long distance, it has had little impact on the overall trip time. I drove > 1000 miles I think twice, so 4 drives round trip. Yes, I had to stop to charge, but that just was times I would have already needed to stop for bathroom, lunch etc... and charging time is going down insanely fast. The newest chargers are 250kW. Within 10 years, I see it barely taking longer than filling up a gas tank.
- Range Loss - I've seen < 5% decrease in range, and most people don't see more than 10% in 5 years, that's not bad.
- Cold Weather - Yes, this has a impact, no question, but I've never had to adjust anything because of it. And now with heat pumps, this is even less of a impact.
- Where to charge? - These cars make it seriously easy by planning out exactly what to do on your trips. You know ahead of time what and where you need to go.
- Maintenance - $0 so far. I use my brakes ummm once a drive? I totally see my breaks lasing 100,000 miles. I will need to change my cabin filter soon.
- Speed/Torque - They are just FUN to drive, the instant torque is just FUN. It is much more fun than my muscle cars growing up. Do I miss the sound of a V8? Sometimes, but it is more than made up for.
- Cost per mile - This has been a huge win for me. I've gone 16,000 miles at the total cost of ~$400. If I was still driving my gas car, that cost would have been closer to $1500. At home cost was only $178 over this time-frame, so the majority of the cost to me was from my trips. Those cost, while less than gas, a lot more than at home.
wow few questions, how do you not use your brakes? How fast does your car charge at your house? how much do you pay for electricity? I feel like driving a long distance would be annoying as i dont want to stop for 30 mins to eat (now days what you sit on the curb at eat while you charge for 30-45 mins?) if i planned a trip to zion i wonder how much extra time it would take me to stop and charge or change my destination to allow for charging stations.
example taking a trip to the grand canyon from my house is a 9 hour drive 608 miles, my range for my honda is 550 miles and takes about 4 mins to refuel.
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looking at the map ( https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC ) it appears to be not a huge deal, how about if all the charge spots are full you will wait double time?
I totally don't see it working around me! Loads of rural single track roads with farm machinery moving around on it. Lots of car parking in the countryside is basically a field. Junctions that only work if you can see the other driver and communicate with them.
It would take not only replacing the entire fleet of cars on the road but also redesigning the entire rural road layout.
thats alot of useful info, i dont stop for 15 mins to use the bathroom tho. but the good part is i imagine you dont need to be at your car while its charging. So on my way to the grand canyon it would be a extra 1.5 hours if i didnt want to arrive on empty or worry again about charging. If not then in the morning i would require 45 mins to start the day, then another 45 mins later. if the chargers are exactly where i want to be it would be perfect, or some kinda battery exchange. for now IF i ever buy one i will not use it for road trips until it hits close to 700 miles range.Regen. If you are driving around in what is colloquially known as 'one pedal mode' you basically never touch brakes aside from panic stops. It's so effective that Tesla specifically warns that you need to use your brakes occasionally just to make sure the calipers don't seize. Model 3 can charge at 48A on L2 EVSE like you'd have at home. About 45 mph IIRC, 6-7 hours from dead empty to full. I pay about $0.083/kwh for off-peak power which is the only time I charge my car. Long distance driving isn't an issue at all, if you arrive at a charger near empty (which the car does automatically, to minimize charge time) you can charge at rates approaching 600 mph. You can get 175 miles of range in 15 minutes. So roughly 15 minutes of charging every 3 hours of driving which actually works out really conveniently with biological needs for food and bathroom breaks. Supercharging is also really cheap. Before I had my home charger installed (which I don't recommend, by the way, you should have this ahead of time if at all possible) I was charging at a supercharger a mile from my house a couple times a week. When I burned through the 1000 miles that came with the car the most I ever paid to charge it (from damn near empty to just over 90%) was about $8 IIRC.
It's really not an issue at all once you're used to the idea. I have zero desire to drive for 176 of every 180 minutes. Even 165 is too much really.
Viper GTS
I agree with you 100%; distracted driving is a huge safety problem exacerbated by smartphones. I don't have a touchscreen, and don't particularly desire one but they are becoming standard in many vehicles. All I'm saying is that it's one available interface, but you should still have smart UX design with physical controls for the most commonly used functions. Tesla eliminated almost all physical controls to shave manufacturing time and cost, but they pretend it's an aesthetic and functional choice.Even a supplemental touchsceen control is a distraction. You have to look at a touchscreen rather than the road to use it. I can use the radio and climate controls in my car purely by touch, I've owned a smartphone for way longer than my car but i can barely manage to unlock it without looking at the screen!
This is a sharp reversal from your previous post where you said driving a car on roads would be outlawed before 2050. Almost all cars don't have any inherent collectible value, so they are worthless if you can't even drive them. I suspect you're mistaken on the average life of a car. If I recall correctly, it's commonly said the average age of a car on the roads is about 10 years.* I'm pretty sure most cars don't get scrapped just a few years after that. Also keep in mind that generally, cars are more reliable than ever and at least mechanically a 10-year old car isn't necessarily on its last legs. It's not even considered exceptional for a properly maintained Toyota to clock 200k miles on the odo.So first, the current average life of a car is about 12 years. And second, we wouldn't be scrapping those cars, per se, they would just be superficilous, unless they had some other collectible value. Which would be no different than today. Which also BTW is why this all of this change, from ICE to EV to AV, will be organic and market-driven. Consumers will demand these changes. Just wait and see.
they are jailbraking john deer tracktors just a matter of time before you can just hax0r your cars DLC,Not a fan of this crap at all but unfortunately I think it will be very common. What pisses me off is that cars are expensive enough as is, and you already paid for the hardware, and now they want you to pay EVEN MORE just to USE it? I'm sure we will see a trend of people who find ways to hack all this stuff though. Imagine having to jail break your car to use it lol.
I'm comfortable driving up to 6 hours between stops, but some people need to go to the restroom every 2 hours. For family trips you describe, it's probably not that unusual to have pit stops well before your gas tank hits E.thats alot of useful info, i dont stop for 15 mins to use the bathroom tho. but the good part is i imagine you dont need to be at your car while its charging. So on my way to the grand canyon it would be a extra 1.5 hours if i didnt want to arrive on empty or worry again about charging. If not then in the morning i would require 45 mins to start the day, then another 45 mins later. if the chargers are exactly where i want to be it would be perfect, or some kinda battery exchange. for now IF i ever buy one i will not use it for road trips until it hits close to 700 miles range.
also just because you dont touch your brake pedal doesnt mean your car doesnt use brakes, it really has more to do with how your style of driving is. i can either get 44mpg on the way to work or 15 mpg with some insane amount of braking heh.
I just think it looks cool and goes well with the whole Cybertruck look. Stainless steel truck with bulletproof glass and futuristic looking steering wheel. I'll be fine with regular round steering wheel too. What I'm most excited about is the stainless steel body. I won't ever have to worry about scratches or paint damage.What's the attraction with these? They get brought up every decade or so and a bunch of people get excited about them. Then they try them out, realise that they are actually a massive PITA and everyone forgets about them for a decade or so again.
I just think it looks cool and goes well with the whole Cybertruck look. Stainless steel truck with bulletproof glass and futuristic looking steering wheel.
Even a supplemental touchsceen control is a distraction. You have to look at a touchscreen rather than the road to use it. I can use the radio and climate controls in my car purely by touch, I've owned a smartphone for way longer than my car but i can barely manage to unlock it without looking at the screen!
I use Android auto (on the phone) and it has excellent voice control, I can get behind that for incidental things to do with the car.
Or a crash that does something fucky to the electrics. Not a nice thought to be stuck in a cybertruck with its toughened windows and its no door handle doors when those batteries ignite!
Which is the correct way to deal with incidental things in the car. I'd still argue that they need back up physical controls not touchscreen ones though.There is very little I don't do by voice in my 3.
Is that both inside and out? I do like a manual physical fall back for electronic things!If I had to guess, the cybertruck will still have emergency door releases. Ex the 3 has buttons but still had a manual release handle.
Really? Think I'll reserve my judgement until I get mine. I trust Tesla way more than you. Like infinity more. . Until then, I'll continue to discount anything you say based on your poor EV knowledge.They are a pain if you have to move the wheel more than an ⅛th of a turn, they are a pain if you're reversing, they generally aren't fit for purpose.
They only look futuristic because they are different. It's totally form over function, which is a terrible idea in a hunk of metal that travels at high speed and has the ability and desire to kill everyone in it and anyone near it if you can't control it properly.
Which is the correct way to deal with incidental things in the car. I'd still argue that they need back up physical controls not touchscreen ones though.
Is that both inside and out? I do like a manual physical fall back for electronic things!