Our supposed EV future....(updated)

[Aikouka]

I do agree that Tesla charging stations can be hit or miss depending on the route. I've been fortunate enough to hit ones that have a good amount of amenities. This is the challenge that I haven't seen thoroughly explored is the actual feasibility of a large number of vehicles being able to charge away from home. Gas stations both serve local and traveling motorist. However, if people have private chargers, it removes a huge chunk of the need for public ones expect along specific travel points. If you are driving in the Smokey Mountains, it's not like they have them along the way.

Charger placement is a bit of an awkward predicament. With less cars, having them tucked away at a gas station or behind a grocery store isn't that big of a deal. However, the nature of an EV's longer "refill" length combined with more cars and a limited number of stations on major routes leads to more and more use. In that regard, would it be smarter for Tesla to prioritize more efficient max state of charge levels? For example, if their navigation software made it so cars typically only needed to hit 80% to easily get to the next charging point, that would be far less time needed on the charger. In other words, more stops = less time per car = more cars serviced.

As a side note, that's kind of why I prefer the chargers being at places like Sheetz. Let me just go in and order some quick food rather than sit down and try to scarf down my meal while the car is still charging. I'm sure the sit-down restaurant would let me go move it, but it feels awkward leaving the restaurant like that when I'm traveling alone.

Of course, I think it would be nice to see more chargers along the way. The one thing I was dreading seeing with the estimated SoC being 5-10% was that I'd get to a charger and it wouldn't work or wouldn't work well.

 

[KentState]

Charger placement is a bit of an awkward predicament. With less cars, having them tucked away at a gas station or behind a grocery store isn't that big of a deal. However, the nature of an EV's longer "refill" length combined with more cars and a limited number of stations on major routes leads to more and more use. In that regard, would it be smarter for Tesla to prioritize more efficient max state of charge levels? For example, if their navigation software made it so cars typically only needed to hit 80% to easily get to the next charging point, that would be far less time needed on the charger. In other words, more stops = less time per car = more cars serviced.

As a side note, that's kind of why I prefer the chargers being at places like Sheetz. Let me just go in and order some quick food rather than sit down and try to scarf down my meal while the car is still charging. I'm sure the sit-down restaurant would let me go move it, but it feels awkward leaving the restaurant like that when I'm traveling alone.

Of course, I think it would be nice to see more chargers along the way. The one thing I was dreading seeing with the estimated SoC being 5-10% was that I'd get to a charger and it wouldn't work or wouldn't work well.

There is a lot of room for improvement for sure. I personally spend a lot of time getting into the details so I have a plan and a backup and a backup to the backup. However, I know my wife would probably not know where to start and use the computer to decide the route. If things didn't work out as the computer planned, she would probably have a lot more anxiety over the situation. To that end, Tesla could throw some of that AI power into optimizing routes and even figure out how many folks have a Super Charging station set as a destination and their estimated arrival times. The entire process could and should be much better.

 

[Commodus]

Pshaw. Unless state governments meddle in the free-markets and try to stupidly outlaw ICE vehicles, they should be available for purchase for pretty much the rest of our lifetimes.

The best part is that they already are, and they will succeed. And even if they somehow didn't, market forces will kick ICE cars out of dealerships regardless. You might see used cars on the market, but new cars? Not in 20 years or so. And of course, there won't be much of an audience for used ICE cars when the fuel and service infrastructures start fading away.

I have to ask: if an EV delivers the range and performance you want while ultimately being more environmentally responsible than an ICE equivalent, why not get it? I, for one, like the thought of an EV that not only gets me wherever I need to go without emissions or noise, but can top up at home... and thrash equivalent gas cars in a race. I'm not so insecure that I need a loud burbling engine and a spew of toxic fumes to feel good about myself.

 

[Torn Mind]

The best part is that they already are, and they will succeed. And even if they somehow didn't, market forces will kick ICE cars out of dealerships regardless. You might see used cars on the market, but new cars? Not in 20 years or so. And of course, there won't be much of an audience for used ICE cars when the fuel and service infrastructures start fading away.

I have to ask: if an EV delivers the range and performance you want while ultimately being more environmentally responsible than an ICE equivalent, why not get it? I, for one, like the thought of an EV that not only gets me wherever I need to go without emissions or noise, but can top up at home... and thrash equivalent gas cars in a race. I'm not so insecure that I need a loud burbling engine and a spew of toxic fumes to feel good about myself.

I highly doubt EVs will remain fully quiet. The presence of sound will be a necessity to accommodate the blind, both the actually blind and people who might wind up in blind spots.

Gas will never fully go away. The benefits of gas being grid proof will insure that it will remain present.

 

[KentState]

I have to ask: if an EV delivers the range and performance you want while ultimately being more environmentally responsible than an ICE equivalent, why not get it? I, for one, like the thought of an EV that not only gets me wherever I need to go without emissions or noise, but can top up at home... and thrash equivalent gas cars in a race. I'm not so insecure that I need a loud burbling engine and a spew of toxic fumes to feel good about myself.

Being environmentally friendly was not a motivator for me getting an EV, but more of the performance and technology which sealed the deal. I do at times miss the sounds of my former V8 cars and would even consider a weekend ICE car. The visceral experience of a good sounding car is just something I enjoy, just like playing the piano or any other hobby.

 

[ElFenix]

The fact is that EVs are the right long term solution. The fact is also that they are not the right short term solution

thinking like this is how you kick the can down the road until the problem is unfixable.

 

[ElFenix]

I highly doubt EVs will remain fully quiet. The presence of sound will be a necessity to accommodate the blind, both the actually blind and people who might wind up in blind spots.

Gas will never fully go away. The benefits of gas being grid proof will insure that it will remain present.

*ensure


(fourth time i've made this post today!)

 

[Commodus]

I highly doubt EVs will remain fully quiet. The presence of sound will be a necessity to accommodate the blind, both the actually blind and people who might wind up in blind spots.

Gas will never fully go away. The benefits of gas being grid proof will insure that it will remain present.

Well, noise inside the car, at least! I know about those external speaker requirements. They'll certainly be quieter than ICE engines.

Gas might go away in essence, in that it might only be used for niche cases and as a backup.

 

[Commodus]

Being environmentally friendly was not a motivator for me getting an EV, but more of the performance and technology which sealed the deal. I do at times miss the sounds of my former V8 cars and would even consider a weekend ICE car. The visceral experience of a good sounding car is just something I enjoy, just like playing the piano or any other hobby.

Mind you, this is how we get people to help the environment! Yeah, that car is zero-emissions, but it also decimates your neighbor's V8 in most situations.

And I will admit that I like the thought of a near-silent EV outrunning a growling sports car. It's like finding out your sweet grandma is an Olympic sprinting champion who will destroy anyone that challenges her to a race.

 

[Torn Mind]

Well, noise inside the car, at least! I know about those external speaker requirements. They'll certainly be quieter than ICE engines.

Gas might go away in essence, in that it might only be used for niche cases and as a backup.

There's too much space and potential for natural disasters in this country for gas to ever fully go away. It will likely remain in suburban and rural areas at decreased prices due to the lower demand. When the grid is off, people will need their generators.

 

[FelixDeCat]

There's too much space and potential for natural disasters in this country for gas to ever fully go away. It will likely remain in suburban and rural areas at decreased prices due to the lower demand. When the grid is off, people will need their generators.

I think thats the point I was trying to make. If the market wants ICE for the convenience of a weekly or biweekly fill-up, the piece of mind for long interstate journeys with no two hour waits every 300 miles, etc., let them have a choice.

If EVs can work out all the kinks and be price competitive at the same time then the choice will be clear. As it is, demand for EVs is growing substantially because of all the buzz surrounding them.

But dont think you have to force EVs down everyone's throat via legislation because you think there is some sort of noble purpose.

Energy has to come from somewhere - either nuclear, fossil or renewable (which is not presently adequate), and our energy grids are overtaxed already. If you want to mandate EVs, you will also have to mandate solar installs on all new homes to help alleviate the new demands placed on the grid.

 

[Dr. Detroit]

More Teslas on the Road Meant Hours-Long Supercharger Lines Over Thanksgiving

The busiest travel weekend of the year was an interesting test for Tesla's fast-charging network.

www.thedrive.com

We do a lot of long distance driving and could not imagine our life with a EV - great for around town - but long distance - oh hell no.

 

[Torn Mind]

I think thats the point I was trying to make. If the market wants ICE for the convenience of a weekly or biweekly fill-up, the piece of mind for long interstate journeys with no two hour waits every 300 miles, etc., let them have a choice.

If EVs can work out all the kinks and be price competitive at the same time then the choice will be clear. As it is, demand for EVs is growing substantially because of all the buzz surrounding them.

But dont think you have to force EVs down everyone's throat via legislation because you think there is some sort of noble purpose.

Energy has to come from somewhere - either nuclear, fossil or renewable (which is not presently adequate), and our energy grids are overtaxed already. If you want to mandate EVs, you will also have to mandate solar installs on all new homes to help alleviate the new demands placed on the grid.

"Disaster country" will keep gas alive to some extent. Would be a PR disaster if some tornado or hurricane causes massive devastation and there's no gas to "live through the trying times" via generator electricity in toasty, humid climates like Florida, Louisiana, etc.

Besides, the modern world of fit health pretty much relies on plastics, sex with latex, and drugs, so crude oil will still remain extremely useful to refine.

One of my former assistant managers goes to Missouri to meet with her parents and she travels from Maryland to there. One time, her Honda Civic died midway due to a blown head gasket.

Buying solar panels from China means the local environment may benefit, but at the expense of toxic waste dumping over there. In short, air pollution reduced, water quality for lower tier folks ruined.

With COVID-19 being a new companion in the life of the human race, the places where they are "packing it tight" will lose a little appeal(not much) for some who will rather travel alone in a vehicle again rather than be packed into mass transit.

 

[K1052]

Energy has to come from somewhere - either nuclear, fossil or renewable (which is not presently adequate), and our energy grids are overtaxed already. If you want to mandate EVs, you will also have to mandate solar installs on all new homes to help alleviate the new demands placed on the grid.

The gid is not overtaxed. I know people are going to point at CA (especially northern) but that's more an issue of decrepit infrastructure that is starting huge expensive fires and what level of generation is in reserve for certain unusual circumstances.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The gid is not overtaxed. I know people are going to point at CA (especially northern) but that's more an issue of decrepit infrastructure that is starting huge expensive fires and what level of generation is in reserve for certain unusual circumstances.

Really? And that's why the power island of Texas, which normally ships electricity out of state, sometimes gets overwhelmed when temps hit 110F in April and warns people to cut back on energy use and then starts emergency rolling blackouts when it has no other choice.

But please, continue to tell me how we make enough power to move 276 million existing vehicles (in the US alone!) from fossil to the electric grid and not notice at all.

 

[K1052]

Really? And that's why the power island of Texas, which normally ships electricity out of state, sometimes gets overwhelmed when temps hit 110F in April and warns people to cut back on energy use and then starts emergency rolling blackouts when it has no other choice.

But please, continue to tell me how we make enough power to move 276 million existing vehicles (in the US alone!) from fossil to the electric grid and not notice at all.

*eyeroll.gif*

The ERCOT summer reserve margin fell precipitously for 2018 and 2019 due to plant retirements but is forecast to rise considerably this year and next as new plants come online. 12% last year going to 15.5% in 2021 and 27% in 2022. Solar is coming in a real big way here.

 

[Torn Mind]

Really? And that's why the power island of Texas, which normally ships electricity out of state, sometimes gets overwhelmed when temps hit 110F in April and warns people to cut back on energy use and then starts emergency rolling blackouts when it has no other choice.

But please, continue to tell me how we make enough power to move 276 million existing vehicles (in the US alone!) from fossil to the electric grid and not notice at all.

*eyeroll.gif*

Wouldn't it just mean that what would be considered "off-peak" would be subject to higher loads? So perhaps the power plant would have to operate at a higher level at night?

At least in the initial stages, I would think most EV adopters would be overnight charging the vehicles.


Charging stations though...better watch out for them copper thieves.

And apparently, since I was hermit for years, Tesla tried this "liquid cooled" thinner wire stuff to use higher gauge wire. That didn't work out. Physics is physics.

 

[Paratus]

This is where I get into arguments with people. I am told that charging for 20 or 30 minutes every 3-4 hours is just too monumental of a hardship to bear.

Granted my BRZ holds 13 gallons so every fill up is fast. On the other hand the 31 gallon on our suburban takes like 10 minutes already. I don’t see 20 being that much longer.

(I’m seriously considering a model 3 in the next few months)

 

[Paratus]

Really? And that's why the power island of Texas, which normally ships electricity out of state, sometimes gets overwhelmed when temps hit 110F in April and warns people to cut back on energy use and then starts emergency rolling blackouts when it has no other choice.

But please, continue to tell me how we make enough power to move 276 million existing vehicles (in the US alone!) from fossil to the electric grid and not notice at all.

*eyeroll.gif*

According to this guys back of the envelope calculations it would take an additional 1 trillion kWh (a 30% increase) to drive the same amount of miles we drove in 2019 using BEVs. At the rate the grid added capacity from 1960-2000 (about 4% / year) it would take about 6 years to make that 30%. Hardly undoable.

As a Texan I’m unaware of rolling blackouts during the summer. In fact the only rolling blackouts we have had have been during the winter because they didn’t adequately design the natural gas plants to handle freezing weather. (we’ll see what happens in the next week with several days of below freezing lows)

 

[K1052]

Granted my BRZ holds 13 gallons so every fill up is fast. On the other hand the 31 gallon on our suburban takes like 10 minutes already. I don’t see 20 being that much longer.

(I’m seriously considering a model 3 in the next few months)

Husband just ordered a Model 3 since his lease is ending. Almost went with the Y but after he drove both liked the 3 better.

 

[Paratus]

Husband just ordered a Model 3 since his lease is ending. Almost went with the Y but after he drove both liked the 3 better.

Nice!

Besides the new heat pump which helps with mileage, powered trunk, and interior changes I think they’ve quietly added a steering wheel heater and better lights.

I’d be interested in hearing about any fit or finish issue you get. Tesla is notorious for having a few things wrong on delivery.

 

[K1052]

Nice!

Besides the new heat pump which helps with mileage, powered trunk, and interior changes I think they’ve quietly added a steering wheel heater and better lights.

I’d be interested in hearing about any fit or finish issue you get. Tesla is notorious for having a few things wrong on delivery.

Yeah hoping there aren't any (or too many) issues with these updates. He went for the red which looks crazy good and I don't like red cars.

 

[Ajay]

According to this guys back of the envelope calculations it would take an additional 1 trillion kWh (a 30% increase) to drive the same amount of miles we drove in 2019 using BEVs. At the rate the grid added capacity from 1960-2000 (about 4% / year) it would take about 6 years to make that 30%. Hardly undoable.

Still, that's a lot of renewable energy - otherwise we are just powering EVs on natural gas, and getting no where. I didn't watch that video yet, but I'd imagine that entire increase over that 40 year interval was using carbon based fuels and nuclear.

 

[Paratus]

Still, that's a lot of renewable energy - otherwise we are just powering EVs on natural gas, and getting no where. I didn't watch that video yet, but I'd imagine that entire increase over that 40 year interval was using carbon based fuels and nuclear.

First off miles driven by an EV powered by natural gas derived electricity is more efficient and pollutes less than the same miles driven by an ICE car.

Second, nuclear + renewables make up about 40% of our electrical generation with wind and solar increasing rapidly.

If you wanted to replace the remaining 60% of fossil fuels and add another 1T kWh then we’d need 5T kWh total and 3.5T kWh of new renewable energy.

From those plots solar and wind have been increasing by 25%/ year. Assuming that roughly continues after 8 years we’d have more than 3.5T kWh.

Once more the cost of 1kwh of electricity from natural gas is roughly $0.06 vs $0.06 for PV solar and $0.053 for wind. So renewables have become price competitive or even cheaper than natural gas. So that’s how the markets are going to go.

I really don’t see it as an insurmountable issue.

 

[Ajay]

First off miles driven by an EV powered by natural gas derived electricity is more efficient and pollutes less than the same miles driven by an ICE car.

In my head, I wonder how that actually works out. The AC->DC->AC conversions, fortunately, must be efficient enough to offset natural gas transport costs.
Well, that and the terrible efficiency of ICE.

Maybe I'll dig in to it.

If you wanted to replace the remaining 60% of fossil fuels and add another 1T kWh then we’d need 5T kWh total and 3.5T kWh of new renewable energy.

From those plots solar and wind have been increasing by 25%/ year. Assuming that roughly continues after 8 years we’d have more than 3.5T kWh.

Once more the cost of 1kwh of electricity from natural gas is roughly $0.06 vs $0.06 for PV solar and $0.053 for wind. So renewables have become price competitive or even cheaper than natural gas. So that’s how the markets are going to go.

I really don’t see it as an insurmountable issue.

Thanks for the graphs.

Some of my viewpoints are colored by the fact that I live in the North East (NH) where PV isn't a very good deal without state/federal rebates. I would not have expected we could scale up cheaper solar power from states in the sunshine belt till @K1052 pointed out the use of long distance efficient DC power transmission. That way, with appropriate storage, we can get cheap energy to the north. Cheap, efficient storage seems to be a problem that hasn't yet been solved, there are many possibilities - but we need 2 or 3 to rise to the top and reap the benefits of large scale manufacturing. Using lithium for stationary storage seems like a poor use of a limited commodity.

On an alternate note, I've been very disappointed with the federal government's response to all our energy needs. I wish we had put more $$s into smaller Gen IV nuclear reactors to provide base load that could be distributed by demand across the country. Gen IV could be cheaper, have 'walk away' levels of safety and produce fissionable byproducts will much, much shorter half lives. We'd rather blow huge sums on developing Fusion (probably because the Oil and Gas lobby sees that it is a sufficiently distant target to serve as a 'green' distraction).

At least now, with the Biden administration's energy policies, we can make better progress in providing better infrastructure for EV charging networks. The mere intent to re-implement better tax rebates seems to have really woken up Ford and GM. There is hope that political push back will decline in face of a car manufacturing jobs vs fossil fuel jobs conflict.