Our supposed EV future....(updated)

[ponyo]

Yea, like the guy who is working part time for 12 bucks an hour at Walmart can afford either of those.
Not everyone has gotten rich on Tesla stock like you.

Solar panels and roofs will become the norm in the future. Just like EV vehicles. There will come a day when the idea of having dumb roof that does nothing will seem like dumb idea. People will automatically buy and sell energy they generate from their solar roofs using programs like Autobidder. Every home in essence will become their own utility. California is already requiring all new single home constructions to have solar panels. It will happen. Energy is multi trillion dollar market that will be disrupted. You can choose to put your head in the sand and ignore what's coming or plan for it. Prices will come down and yes, even the guy who's working part time for $12 an hour at Walmart will be able to afford it. Because it will make economic sense.

 

[ondma]

Solar panels and roofs will become the norm in the future. Just like EV vehicles. There will come a day when the idea of having dumb roof that does nothing will seem like dumb idea. People will automatically buy and sell energy they generate from their solar roofs using programs like Autobidder. Every home in essence will become their own utility. California is already requiring all new single home constructions to have solar panels. It will happen. Energy is multi trillion dollar market that will be disrupted. You can choose to put your head in the sand and ignore what's coming or plan for it. Prices will come down and yes, even the guy who's working part time for $12 an hour at Walmart will be able to afford it. Because it will make economic sense.

Yea, California is a model of governmental efficiency. Just ask Bill Maher, (not exactly a bastion of reactionary thought) how his solar installation is going.
Despite your rosy projections, building the infrastructure for green energy will require strong governmental support and we go from an administration that wants to bring back coal to one that supports green energy. In four years, we could easily go back the other way.

Not to mention, you seem to forget that people live in apartments as well. So much for their solar roof panels and the Tesla charger on the wall they can use to plug in their cars overnight.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yea, California is a model of governmental efficiency. Just ask Bill Maher, (not exactly a bastion of reactionary thought) how his solar installation is going.
Despite your rosy projections, building the infrastructure for green energy will require strong governmental support and we go from an administration that wants to bring back coal to one that supports green energy. In four years, we could easily go back the other way.

Not to mention, you seem to forget that people live in apartments as well. So much for their solar roof panels and the Tesla charger on the wall they can use to plug in their cars overnight.

There is an affordable alternative that will help us extend gas mileage, does not require any new infrastructure and will help the enviornmennt as less hydrocarbons are burned using small engines......

HYBRID GASOLINE/ELECTRIC VEHICLES.....The magic bullet everyone wants to overlook.

A hybrid vehicle can be full self driving.

A hybrid vehicle can run in full EV mode.

A hybrid vehicle is fun, futuristic and will provide peace of mind during times of blackouts or other types of outages or emergencies.

 

[gorobei]

EngineeringExplained already did a few videos on BEV. he went over the numbers and the costs(mining,recycling,operation,parts) worked out to be no worse than ice and better in the long term despite ice infrastructure advantage. he also went over part/manufacture/maintenance costs and weight advantage of ev. the charging station limitation(time/spacing) is the only issue because of current LiPo batt tech.

solid state battery tech with glass dielectric solves the dendrite problem, rare-toxic elements, and 50% charge limit on tesla. supercap buffers can reduce charge time to a minute or two and reduce the need for extreme batt pack cooling. air batteries (zinc or aluminum) in swappable packs can easily be sold at current gas stations for long haul. aptera part deux have worked the equation down to the bare minimum and can offer built in solar charging for those with the right weather(and a lack of fear of collision). samsung and toyota have already made the capital investment in ss batt plants.

bare minimum chassis like the old gm skateboard, the new REE and Canoo mean production is vastly simplified. tesla is modifying the battery cell housings to function as the main structural elements to reduce weight. the reduced drivetrain, lack of differential on per tire motors, less steering and braking linkages, no expensive platinum cat or diesel exhaust, and fewer number of parts mean ev will have a weight advantage over ice as time goes on.

with chevy going all ev by '35 and presumably ford will have to offer comparable ev lineups, ice/exhaust/transmission/brake part makers will have massively reduced production volumes/demand which means prices for ice car parts will go up once legacy ice cars are retired or number of them out there no longer big enough to be profitable.

with self driving cars, the number of post-millennials who wont own a car will be enough to free up parking space as ride share/taxi services can run cars 24/7 thus never parking in a lot/restaurant lot/mall multi story garage/etc. the space freed up can be used for chargers. new housing can reduce/eliminate garages from the lot size.

when disaggregated mains power comes from local redux flow/flywheel/gravity storage; fossil fuel peakers will finally be unprofitable. solar and wind sources are often shut down because of the JIT nature of our energy grid, but local storage means they can run at peak output in off peak demand hours. nat gas may go on due to efficiency, but coal and oil wil be facing a grim future.

if chevy isnt bothering with true hybrids (ev only drivetrain with ice for charging only) there is likely a reason.

 

[Torn Mind]

Yea, California is a model of governmental efficiency. Just ask Bill Maher, (not exactly a bastion of reactionary thought) how his solar installation is going.
Despite your rosy projections, building the infrastructure for green energy will require strong governmental support and we go from an administration that wants to bring back coal to one that supports green energy. In four years, we could easily go back the other way.

Not to mention, you seem to forget that people live in apartments as well. So much for their solar roof panels and the Tesla charger on the wall they can use to plug in their cars overnight.

Some locales are old infrastructure wise and will not be tearing up residential lands wholesale to accommodate new EV logistics. Traversing those counties happen to be a pain the rear without vehicles. Waterways and railways also add an extra logistical hoop.

PG County has such "age issues". The county seat is in Upper Marlboro, and while buses goes there, the distance is still a bitch and the roadway to there has nothing commercial on the way there. They are transitioning to Largo, MD, but the courts are still there. I can guarantee that county will never truly become walkable or public transportation friendly, although parts of College Park might have walkability up to a point.

Compounding matters is that some areas are their own municipality designed specifically for isolated SFH living. Now, they can accommodate EVs because of the SFHs, but don't expect the rise of elite skyscrapers in stale suburban places like those.

 

[sdifox]

With the frigid temperatures of 4F-15F in DFW and most of North Texas, Gov. Gregg Abbot is warning of possible rolling blackouts if the energy grid is taxed much more:

Rolling outages possible; officials ask for limited power usage - Cross Timbers Gazette | Southern Denton County | Flower Mound | News

State officials are asking residents to limit their use of power and natural gas resources Sunday through Thursday, as the coming winter storm is expected to cause a huge demand on Texas’ power grid. Residents are asked to set their thermostats no higher than 68 degrees, close their blinds and...

www.crosstimbersgazette.com

State officials are asking residents to limit their use of power and natural gas resources Sunday through Thursday, as the coming winter storm is expected to cause a huge demand on Texas’ power grid.

Residents are asked to set their thermostats no higher than 68 degrees, close their blinds and curtains, unplug unused items and limit use of washing machines and dishwashers during the peak hours of mornings and evenings.

In response to extreme winter weather conditions, area residents may experience rolling outages over the course of the next 36 hours.

------------

And remember about 99% of the cars in Texas are ICE cars, and we are net exporter of energy! But yet even we can be taxed to point of possible rolling blackouts during certain times of the year when some power plants are taken offline for maintenance. Another article says right now wind turbine farms are frozen and solar is not viable right now due to overcast skies.

Are we ready to go 100% EV? What about even 25%? How about 15% by 2025?

Im guessing the answer is "no" to all of the above.

If only there was a way to safeguard power generaton from below freezing temperatures.

 

[Brainonska511]

If only there was a way to safeguard power generaton from below freezing temperatures.

Interesting seeing some of the concerns over EVs in an emergency - turns out gasoline can have similar problems - shortages during emergencies, gas pumps not working when the power goes out....

 

[K1052]

Interesting seeing some of the concerns over EVs in an emergency - turns out gasoline can have similar problems - shortages during emergencies, gas pumps not working when the power goes out....

Lots of empty gas stations around here...meanwhile the sun rises over our solar array.

One thing I would like is the ability to take charge out of the cars for home use in an outage. Soon to have about 100kWh sitting in the driveway that would be nice to access if needed.

 

[drnickriviera]

Lots of empty gas stations around here...meanwhile the sun rises over our solar array.

One thing I would like is the ability to take charge out of the cars for home use in an outage. Soon to have about 100kWh sitting in the driveway that would be nice to access if needed.

The best i've been able to come up with is a 12v sine wave inverter. You'll have to see how much power your 12V inboard charger can handle and go from there. CHademo is the only one i know of that allows 2 way power transfer off the high voltage pack

 

[K1052]

The best i've been able to come up with is a 12v sine wave inverter. You'll have to see how much power your 12V inboard charger can handle and go from there. CHademo is the only one i know of that allows 2 way power transfer off the high voltage pack

Supposedly the new revision for Model 3s includes a two direction charger which would seem to make V2G or at least V2H possible with the right equipment on the other side.

Relatedly there are a number of stories about the new F150 hybrids that included a generator option. It seems for like $700 you can get a 7.2kW generator capability (kind of a steal compared to 5 or 6 grand for a top of the line stand alone) which the few people in TX who bought the trucks are presently over the moon about. Even partial electrification of vehicles can have some major advantages if thoughfully implemented.

 

[Heartbreaker]

The big question is the public charging network, or the complete and total lack thereof. I don't see Apartments electrifying 50% of there parking spots to allow overnight charging for residents like homeowners will have - will every Apt dweller be pushed to public charging stations? Will every work parking lot be equipped with a significant number of charging stations ~ 25% of spots?

Why do people always start with the cases that are hard to satisfy today, when there is a massive unfilled market among home owners.

The early adopters, and mid range adopters of EVs will be home owners, and something like half the population lives in separate homes, not apartments, so this is a MASSIVE untapped market.

EVs will roll out there first, and as they take over more and more of the market, things like work sites and apartments buildings will be adding charging infrastructure.

20 years from now if you don't have charging infrastructure in your Apartment building, you won't be able to attract better off tenants, that will be driving EV's and expect infrastructure. You will be stuck only accepting people driving old combustion car beaters.

USA will likely lag the free world due to high prevalence of Freedumb loving, coal rollers, who insist AGW is a hoax, but EV's are still coming to the USA.

As the rest of the world switches to EV's the economies of scale will switch to EVs, such that buying a new Combustion car will be the expensive option...

 

[Commodus]

20 years from now if you don't have charging infrastructure in your Apartment building, you won't be able to attract better off tenants, that will be driving EV's and expect infrastructure. You will be stuck only accepting people driving old combustion car beaters.

Hell, I'd go one step further and say that an apartment building without EV charging in 20 years will probably struggle to attract any tenants that need their own cars. Now, whether or not people will need personal cars is another matter — you might just hail a robotaxi in those cases.

 

[ondma]

Why do people always start with the cases that are hard to satisfy today, when there is a massive unfilled market among home owners.

The early adopters, and mid range adopters of EVs will be home owners, and something like half the population lives in separate homes, not apartments, so this is a MASSIVE untapped market.

EVs will roll out there first, and as they take over more and more of the market, things like work sites and apartments buildings will be adding charging infrastructure.

20 years from now if you don't have charging infrastructure in your Apartment building, you won't be able to attract better off tenants, that will be driving EV's and expect infrastructure. You will be stuck only accepting people driving old combustion car beaters.

USA will likely lag the free world due to high prevalence of Freedumb loving, coal rollers, who insist AGW is a hoax, but EV's are still coming to the USA.

As the rest of the world switches to EV's the economies of scale will switch to EVs, such that buying a new Combustion car will be the expensive option...

Because today is the time when you need to use the vehicle, and you have to plan for the worst case, especially since EV tend to be very expensive. Where one lives is also a big consideration. I live in Minnesota, where we have cold weather 5 or six months of the year, with usually 20 or more days below 0F. This is a big disadvantage for electric cars.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Because today is the time when you need to use the vehicle, and you have to plan for the worst case, especially since EV tend to be very expensive.

That's fine if you are talking about your personal case.

But a lot of people are essentially just concern trolling for people in apartments. Which may be the case for the post I was replying to.

IOW:

"I live in an apartment, with no place to charge". Is fine and an EV won't work for you in your current situation.

"EVs are a non starter because people in apartments have no place to charge". Is largely concern trolling. The other half of the country that doesn't live in apartments can buy EVs while infrastructure improves, and when the market starts to saturate for home owner, many if not most apartment will be charging equipped.

Where one lives is also a big consideration. I live in Minnesota, where we have cold weather 5 or six months of the year, with usually 20 or more days below 0F. This is a big disadvantage for electric cars.

As far as cold. Bjørn Nyland provides some even handed perspective from Norway:

https://www.youtube.com/user/bjornnyland

 

[sandorski]

Hell, I'd go one step further and say that an apartment building without EV charging in 20 years will probably struggle to attract any tenants that need their own cars. Now, whether or not people will need personal cars is another matter — you might just hail a robotaxi in those cases.

In these parts all new Construction is likely to include Charging infrastructure. Even Social Housing is considering adding it to existing buildings. In 20 years things will have changed so much that we haven't even imagined it.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I think once people get used to the idea of plugging in year round instead of just winter (ex: already need to plug in a block heater) then we will probably see even less stranded cars since you'll always be leaving with a full "tank". With a gas car you have to actually take the time to go to the gas station and when you're working all week you might not feel like going and try to stretch it till the weekend even when you're running low. With electric you just charge at home. Not that going to the gas station is a huge hassle or anything, I only go like maybe once a month (my F150 has a pretty big tank) but it's still an extra errand.

Once batteries improve to the point that you can get a 1,000km range including heat and AC, that means a day trip will be doable on a single charge. Going to Toronto for example takes around 8 hours from where I am and that is typically a day trip with a lunch break in between. I imagine seeing chargers at restaurants and truck stops will be very common too. Or even bathroom stops. You stop for 15-20 minutes to stretch your legs and go to the bathroom, you may as well do a quick charge to top up a bit. I just hope they make it so you can just put loonies in the charger, and not require some stupid app for that specific network. If they do that kind of crap it will be very fragmented and annoying having to register for each charger. Just make it so you can put money in the machine or make it like a gas pump where you just go inside to pay for whatever amount of kwh you used. I'm thinking if they make it so you can pay at the charger it might be easier as they could work 24/7 without anyone needing to be around.

 

[iCyborg]

But a lot of people are essentially just concern trolling for people in apartments. Which may be the case for the post I was replying to.

IOW:

"I live in an apartment, with no place to charge". Is fine and an EV won't work for you in your current situation.

"EVs are a non starter because people in apartments have no place to charge". Is largely concern trolling. The other half of the country that doesn't live in apartments can buy EVs while infrastructure improves, and when the market starts to saturate for home owner, many if not most apartment will be charging equipped.

The problem is when governments start making "progressive" laws/plans like "in 2030 sales of new ICE cars will be banned", but there's no clear plan to address the very real infrastructure problem. Those laws will apply to everyone, not just "half the country who have detached homes", so I don't think people's concerns are necessarily trolling.

Yes, industry will improve some aspects, batteries will get better, more charging stations, new buildings will have chargers, but I'd still like to see more focus on 'how' we transition to EV only (for everybody, apartment dwellers included) vs making deadlines on when that's supposed to happen and expect problems will resolve themselves on their own, or by the industry.
You can fund some of that with taxing ICE cars/fuel, incentives for EV, I'm fine with that, but once EV market share gets high enough, that "gravy train" will come to an end too.

 

[Red Squirrel]

That is my main fear is that they find a way to tax EVs or even alternate energy. In PEI they already tax solar. If you have solar on your roof you need to pay a tax based on what you produce. It's BS. Their reasoning is that since you're not paying the hydro company then the government is not making money off the tax you would be paying to the hydro company. They'll probably do the same with EVs and charge a tax based on kwh used. We already pay enough damn taxes through income, sales, property etc. Use THAT money for roads.

 

[Heartbreaker]

The problem is when governments start making "progressive" laws/plans like "in 2030 sales of new ICE cars will be banned", but there's no clear plan to address the very real infrastructure problem. Those laws will apply to everyone, not just "half the country who have detached homes", so I don't think people's concerns are necessarily trolling.

The countries talking about 2030 bam, are much further ahead than the USA, and they do have infrastructure plans.

The USA likely won't ban the ICE cars till 2040 or later, and nothing stopping you from using an ICE for 10 years after that.

So yeah, all the general worries of "Will no one think of the apartment dwellers", seems like pointless FUD.

When the tipping point becomes obvious, everything will flip fast. By 2030 most US car sales could be EVs, just like they are in Norway today.

If they are, then apartment buildings will be scrambling to install charging infrastructure unless they want to start losing more and more tenants. 10 years of that happening and most apartment buildings with parking will have charging.

 

[Heartbreaker]

That is my main fear is that they find a way to tax EVs or even alternate energy. In PEI they already tax solar. If you have solar on your roof you need to pay a tax based on what you produce. It's BS. Their reasoning is that since you're not paying the hydro company then the government is not making money off the tax you would be paying to the hydro company. They'll probably do the same with EVs and charge a tax based on kwh used. We already pay enough damn taxes through income, sales, property etc. Use THAT money for roads.

I read about that. It's an odd situation. If you were off grid and making your own electricity, you wouldn't be charged tax. But if you put energy into the grid and "bank it" and then take it out later, they currently charge HST on that electricity.

 

[iCyborg]

The countries talking about 2030 bam, are much further ahead than the USA, and they do have infrastructure plans.

The USA likely won't ban the ICE cars till 2040 or later, and nothing stopping you from using an ICE for 10 years after that.

So yeah, all the general worries of "Will no one think of the apartment dwellers", seems like pointless FUD.

First, I don't live in USA, and second, California already said the ban is coming in 2035.

You call their arguments FUD, but your counter arguments are "dismissal by hand-waving". This and that will happen by then, everything will come together by itself etc.

For example a friend of mine lives in a building which is <10yrs old. The estimate he was given for getting a charger to his underground garage spot was $10K (Canadian $), and the existing capacity can only accomodate 10-15% of the residents before much more extensive (and expensive) work would be needed. This is a condo-style building where units are individually owned (quite common in Canada). Who's gonna pay for that? Would you be happy if someone handed you a 20-40-60K bill one year? What if some residents don't want to participate?
In most urban centres housing market is already overheated with low vacancy and a tendency to go worse, I doubt apartment buildings will be scrambling for tenants any time soon. Where would they go, is there some secret plan for extra housing? And all these aditional costs won't make housing more affordable.

Your response is basically "it's just FUD, nothing to worry, there's still 15-20 years, everything will play out just fine, keep calm and carry on".
Don't get me wrong, I do believe eventually it will, but governments are starting to set "hard deadlines" for various policies and measures, but it's a lot less clear if the timeline is economically viable for everyone (people living in buildings in particular). Maybe it is, maybe governments will adjust planes, you can be optimistic about it, but it's not fair to trivialize people's concerns as FUD, unless you have a much better answer to examples like above. And "move somewhere else" isn't one of them.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Here are other additional concerns with regard to EVs and why they will likely never work as a primary mode of transportation beyond mass transportation or urban centers:

1) Infrastructure problems and trip planning if you want to get on the freeway, especially during the holidays. Leave your EV at home and rent an ICE car.

2) EVs are damaging to the environment - Lithium batteries are not re-recyclable on a large scale, but attempts are being made to do so, so this may get better over time.

3) Expensive and difficult to repair - If you own an electric car, you can forget going to your local shop or fixing it inexpensively. Regardless of the type and the model, all-electric vehicles require specific maintenance and service procedures as well as extremely high safety standards. Shade tree mechanics need not apply.

4) Very dangerous fire hazard OR might kill a first responder - Servicing electric cars can be quite dangerous because most of the car’s mechanics consist of battery packs under high voltage. Also, in case of a fire, you can’t just put it out with water. You have to use a special fire extinguisher since the batteries burn at a much higher temperature.

Battery packs can burn for DAYS or can re-ignite on fire days later.

"High-voltage batteries can give electric shocks that can kill responders if touched" :

NTSB Report: Electric Vehicle Fires Endanger Emergency Responders

Because of the way electric vehicle fires burn first responders are endangering themselves. The high-voltage lithium-ion battery fires can’t be

www.motorbiscuit.com

 

[sandorski]

Ugh, I really think you think that you are making good counterpoints.

1- Won't be an issue
2- So are ICE's
3- Lol, as opposed to ICE?
4- So are ICE's

 

[K1052]

3) Expensive and difficult to repair - If you own an electric car, you can forget going to your local shop or fixing it inexpensively. Regardless of the type and the model, all-electric vehicles require specific maintenance and service procedures as well as extremely high safety standards. Shade tree mechanics need not apply.

LOL EVs are essentially no maintenance as long as you keep them in tires, brakes, and windshield fluid.

 

[Commodus]

Here are other additional concerns with regard to EVs and why they will likely never work as a primary mode of transportation beyond mass transportation or urban centers:

1) Infrastructure problems and trip planning if you want to get on the freeway, especially during the holidays. Leave your EV at home and rent an ICE car.

2) EVs are damaging to the environment - Lithium batteries are not re-recyclable on a large scale, but attempts are being made to do so, so this may get better over time.

3) Expensive and difficult to repair - If you own an electric car, you can forget going to your local shop or fixing it inexpensively. Regardless of the type and the model, all-electric vehicles require specific maintenance and service procedures as well as extremely high safety standards. Shade tree mechanics need not apply.

4) Very dangerous fire hazard OR might kill a first responder - Servicing electric cars can be quite dangerous because most of the car’s mechanics consist of battery packs under high voltage. Also, in case of a fire, you can’t just put it out with water. You have to use a special fire extinguisher since the batteries burn at a much higher temperature.

Battery packs can burn for DAYS or can re-ignite on fire days later.

"High-voltage batteries can give electric shocks that can kill responders if touched" :

NTSB Report: Electric Vehicle Fires Endanger Emergency Responders

Because of the way electric vehicle fires burn first responders are endangering themselves. The high-voltage lithium-ion battery fires can’t be

www.motorbiscuit.com

Still trying to beat that tired old drum, I see.

1. Infrastructure is improving, and range improvements are making it possible to avoid mid-trip recharges. Don't confuse the way things are now with the way they will be.

2. You managed to undermine your own argument in one sentence. Recycling for batteries is improving, and there are already good uses for them. For example, a while back there was a project using old laptop batteries to power lights in places where electricity is unreliable or impractical.

3. Like K1052 said, the upshot of EVs is that they need far fewer repairs in the first place. The biggest cost is replacing the battery if you wear it down enough. Small garages and shadetree mechanics exist because gas engines are unreliable, cantankerous devices; let's not keep a problem around because we're worried about its solution going away.

4. Battery designs are becoming safer, and emergency crews are adapting. Again, let's not mistake the way things are now for the way they will be. And it's not as if gas cars are ironclad safety boxes, are they? Without detailed accident data, I wouldn't presume EVs are more dangerous in accidents than their gas counterparts.