Our supposed EV future....(updated)

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sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
99,107
17,449
126
Still trying to beat that tired old drum, I see.

1. Infrastructure is improving, and range improvements are making it possible to avoid mid-trip recharges. Don't confuse the way things are now with the way they will be.

2. You managed to undermine your own argument in one sentence. Recycling for batteries is improving, and there are already good uses for them. For example, a while back there was a project using old laptop batteries to power lights in places where electricity is unreliable or impractical.

3. Like K1052 said, the upshot of EVs is that they need far fewer repairs in the first place. The biggest cost is replacing the battery if you wear it down enough. Small garages and shadetree mechanics exist because gas engines are unreliable, cantankerous devices; let's not keep a problem around because we're worried about its solution going away.

4. Battery designs are becoming safer, and emergency crews are adapting. Again, let's not mistake the way things are now for the way they will be. And it's not as if gas cars are ironclad safety boxes, are they? Without detailed accident data, I wouldn't presume EVs are more dangerous in accidents than their gas counterparts.

You have to forgive Felix. He is basing his opinion on Texas.
 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,979
6,557
136
First, I don't live in USA, and second, California already said the ban is coming in 2035.

If you don't live in the USA, then why jump to another US example in the next breath? Presumably you don't live in California, so why the concern for them? BTW an executive order for 15 years in the future carries little weight, it is more of signal to get the ball rolling.


For example a friend of mine lives in a building which is <10yrs old. The estimate he was given for getting a charger to his underground garage spot was $10K (Canadian $), and the existing capacity can only accomodate 10-15% of the residents before much more extensive (and expensive) work would be needed. This is a condo-style building where units are individually owned (quite common in Canada). Who's gonna pay for that? Would you be happy if someone handed you a 20-40-60K bill one year? What if some residents don't want to participate?
In most urban centres housing market is already overheated with low vacancy and a tendency to go worse, I doubt apartment buildings will be scrambling for tenants any time soon. Where would they go, is there some secret plan for extra housing? And all these aditional costs won't make housing more affordable.

So your concern is that Canada might ban new combustion engine cars 15-20 years from now, and that this apartment situation will be exactly like it is today?

That isn't a very convincing argument. Also note that even if that came to pass, ICE cars on the roads won't disappear.

Over the next 15-20 years apartment buildings will face ever greater pressure to supply EV charging, and public infrastructure will be growing as well.

People need to stop applying current infrastructure weakness, to far future deadlines, like the infrastructure will be stagnant in between now an then. It won't.

If you want real world examples of what it might look like as deadlines get closer, look to Norway to see what happens when a clear direction is chosen.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
69,941
13,460
126
www.anyf.ca
People always say "there's no infrastructure" but imagine the amount of infrastructure that had to be setup when ICE cars got invented. There was no gas stations or means to distribute oil. But yet it happened.

For EVs the infrastructure already exists. It's called power plants and power lines. That particular line is 500kv and goes to a 349MW power plant. Considering what it was doing to my hair pretty sure you can charge an EV if you just park under it.

As for charging stations, at the end of the day it's just a fancy plug, they are not that special. Anyone can install them as long as you have a means of running power from your electrical panel.
 

ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
3,247
1,655
136
Strange how those who are arguing that we cant assume infrastructure will stay the same, in the next breath argue that the needed infrastructure will magically appear.
Bottom line, is no one really knows what will happen. Considering that 2030 is only 9 years away, personally, I am skeptical, but somewhat hopeful, that the needed infrastructure will be in place. Again, simply my opinion, but I think something like 2050 is a more realistic estimate for widespread EV implementation. Even that depends on the political climate, which is favorable to green energy now, but could easily be reversed in 4 years.

And for those citing Norway as an example, that is great for them. However, the US is a much bigger country, has a very different political climate, and already has a strained electrical grid in many areas.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,820
136
Strange how those who are arguing that we cant assume infrastructure will stay the same, in the next breath argue that the needed infrastructure will magically appear.
Bottom line, is no one really knows what will happen. Considering that 2030 is only 9 years away, personally, I am skeptical, but somewhat hopeful, that the needed infrastructure will be in place. Again, simply my opinion, but I think something like 2050 is a more realistic estimate for widespread EV implementation. Even that depends on the political climate, which is favorable to green energy now, but could easily be reversed in 4 years.

And for those citing Norway as an example, that is great for them. However, the US is a much bigger country, has a very different political climate, and already has a strained electrical grid in many areas.

2050 is too pessimistic. Widespread EV adoption I see in the 2030s. Maybe the 2020s, but probably not until later in the decade.

I figure there will be a tipping point where the cars are inexpensive enough, and the infrastructure broad enough, that EV demand snowballs. Think of what happened with smartphones — even for a while after the iPhone launch, they were niche products for enthusiasts and businesspeople... until the right models showed up, and suddenly everyone had one. If there's enough demand, apartments and power companies will make the infrastructure happen.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
9,314
8,631
136
Solar panels and roofs will become the norm in the future. Just like EV vehicles. There will come a day when the idea of having dumb roof that does nothing will seem like dumb idea. People will automatically buy and sell energy they generate from their solar roofs using programs like Autobidder. Every home in essence will become their own utility. California is already requiring all new single home constructions to have solar panels. It will happen. Energy is multi trillion dollar market that will be disrupted. You can choose to put your head in the sand and ignore what's coming or plan for it. Prices will come down and yes, even the guy who's working part time for $12 an hour at Walmart will be able to afford it. Because it will make economic sense.
I would have to have 6 to 8, 80 - 100+ year old hardwood trees cut down to make solar on the roof practical. You want electricity or oxygen? They also don't create a heat island as solar cells do, and they provide shade to reduce cooling load.
Actually local ordinances do not permit me to take down a tree over 6" in diameter unless it is a threat to fall, or dead. It is related to the fact I live on a steep slope, and trees stabilize the land. If it is a threat, that must be confirmed by a certified arborist, else I would be fined, and required to plant new trees.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,979
6,557
136
Strange how those who are arguing that we cant assume infrastructure will stay the same, in the next breath argue that the needed infrastructure will magically appear.
Bottom line, is no one really knows what will happen. Considering that 2030 is only 9 years away, personally, I am skeptical,

What does 2030 have to do with EV's in the USA? There is no 2030 deadline in the USA.

Each country is different. Countries with better infrastructure plans and progress will end ICE sales sooner, but the bulk of the USA will like be lagging the rest of the western world.

And for those citing Norway as an example, that is great for them. However, the US is a much bigger country, has a very different political climate, and already has a strained electrical grid in many areas.

Norway is just is one of the first movers that will transition sooner, rather than later, and we can watch it happen and learn from it. It is also a good counter to the OP FUD ("going to see stranded cars everywhere?") that started this thread. More than half the new car sales in Norway are already EVs and there aren't stranded cars everywhere.
 

killster1

Banned
Mar 15, 2007
6,205
475
126
What does 2030 have to do with EV's in the USA? There is no 2030 deadline in the USA.

Each country is different. Countries with better infrastructure plans and progress will end ICE sales sooner, but the bulk of the USA will like be lagging the rest of the western world.



Norway is just is one of the first movers that will transition sooner, rather than later, and we can watch it happen and learn from it. It is also a good counter to the OP FUD ("going to see stranded cars everywhere?") that started this thread. More than half the new car sales in Norway are already EVs and there aren't stranded cars everywhere.
On Sept. 23, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that after 2035, sales of gas-powered vehicles would be banned in California, a state where more than 50% of greenhouse emissions are generated by transportation. This ban includes gas-electric hybrid vehicles and, more generally, any vehicle with tailpipe emissions.
i dunno about 2030 but in california looks like 2035.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
69,941
13,460
126
www.anyf.ca
I would have to have 6 to 8, 80 - 100+ year old hardwood trees cut down to make solar on the roof practical. You want electricity or oxygen? They also don't create a heat island as solar cells do, and they provide shade to reduce cooling load.
Actually local ordinances do not permit me to take down a tree over 6" in diameter unless it is a threat to fall, or dead. It is related to the fact I live on a steep slope, and trees stabilize the land. If it is a threat, that must be confirmed by a certified arborist, else I would be fined, and required to plant new trees.


Yeah solar is not practical for everyone and I would not cut a tree only for solar, but for everyone that it is practical, it's pretty much a no brainer especially in places closer to the equator as there is more day light. I ended up having to cut some dying trees that were shading my east and west part of the roof which are the bigger parts of my roof and now it's very tempting to add solar. Dealing with the snow is a pain though and our days are pretty short but I could probably make it work half decently. If anything it would at least be a source of backup power. They don't do micro FIT here anymore so can't connect to the grid but could setup the house to be semi off grid at least.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,111
136
LOL EVs are essentially no maintenance as long as you keep them in tires, brakes, and windshield fluid.
Periodic greasing of appropriated suspension components and probably gear box oil changes (very infrequent). In any case, these are better uses of petroleum then burning them in ICE engines.
I just need the damn things to come down in price. Oh, and NH electric rates (energy+distribution) are sadly quite high. My house is poorly located for roof solar as well :-(
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,405
43,895
136
On Sept. 23, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that after 2035, sales of gas-powered vehicles would be banned in California, a state where more than 50% of greenhouse emissions are generated by transportation. This ban includes gas-electric hybrid vehicles and, more generally, any vehicle with tailpipe emissions.
i dunno about 2030 but in california looks like 2035.

More specifically the ban covers new cars. Used gas vehicles will continue to be ok. I know some people think they might try to evade such a restriction by going out of state but I about CA will let you register when the time comes.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,405
43,895
136
Periodic greasing of appropriated suspension components and probably gear box oil changes (very infrequent). In any case, these are better uses of petroleum then burning them in ICE engines.
I just need the damn things to come down in price. Oh, and NH electric rates (energy+distribution) are sadly quite high. My house is poorly located for roof solar as well :-(

Community solar is probably the answer for people that don't don't have a good spot on property.
 

killster1

Banned
Mar 15, 2007
6,205
475
126
More specifically the ban covers new cars. Used gas vehicles will continue to be ok. I know some people think they might try to evade such a restriction by going out of state but I about CA will let you register when the time comes.
Community solar is probably the answer for people that don't don't have a good spot on property.
i know people who keep their cars register in other states to save $$$ so im sure it would work.. as far as no good spot, why not just build another structure like a carport or patio with solar panels instead of a roof.
 
Dec 10, 2005
27,667
12,092
136
i know people who keep their cars register in other states to save $$$ so im sure it would work.. as far as no good spot, why not just build another structure like a carport or patio with solar panels instead of a roof.
So, commit registration and insurance fraud? Honestly, wouldn't mind seeing states and insurance companies would crack down on that.
 
Reactions: K1052

iCyborg

Golden Member
Aug 8, 2008
1,342
59
91
If you don't live in the USA, then why jump to another US example in the next breath? Presumably you don't live in California, so why the concern for them? BTW an executive order for 15 years in the future carries little weight, it is more of signal to get the ball rolling.
It's a counter-example to your "The USA likely won't ban the ICE cars till 2040 or later".
And I don't understand "why concern for them". This is a general thread, not just USA or some parts of it. Concerns aren't FUD because they don't apply to your particular location.

So your concern is that Canada might ban new combustion engine cars 15-20 years from now, and that this apartment situation will be exactly like it is today?

That isn't a very convincing argument. Also note that even if that came to pass, ICE cars on the roads won't disappear.

Over the next 15-20 years apartment buildings will face ever greater pressure to supply EV charging, and public infrastructure will be growing as well.
Once again, your answer is a vague "infrastructure will be improved". It's not going to be improved by unicorns - in the above example, who will pay the fairly substantial bill? Federal government? State/province? Municipality? Owners? If owners, would there be subsidies? And what's the timeline? Can government or HOA force owners?
"No new ICE by 20XX" is a lot more definite statement than "someone will pay for and improve infrastructure at some point".
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
69,941
13,460
126
www.anyf.ca
What did they do when air conditioning was invented? An EV is not going to use any more power than an A/C unit. Either way as long as people pay their bill it's up to the company to provide the services being paid for. It's that simple. If they need to upgrade substations or power plants well they'll just have to do it.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,682
2,602
126
2050 is too pessimistic. Widespread EV adoption I see in the 2030s. Maybe the 2020s, but probably not until later in the decade.

I figure there will be a tipping point where the cars are inexpensive enough, and the infrastructure broad enough, that EV demand snowballs. Think of what happened with smartphones —0

Yes, but everyone wanted cell phones. Thats not the case for electrics at the moment.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,682
2,602
126
On Sept. 23, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that after 2035, sales of gas-powered vehicles would be banned in California, a state where more than 50% of greenhouse emissions are generated by transportation. This ban includes gas-electric hybrid vehicles and, more generally, any vehicle with tailpipe emissions.
i dunno about 2030 but in california looks like 2035.

This is the type of extremism that should be avoided. You want to encourage adoption, not force it down people's throats and leave them with no choice. Good thing the Gavster is about to be recalled anyway.
 

killster1

Banned
Mar 15, 2007
6,205
475
126
This is the type of extremism that should be avoided. You want to encourage adoption, not force it down people's throats and leave them with no choice. Good thing the Gavster is about to be recalled anyway.
personally i dont care, i have no idea how much pollution a electric vehicle really makes since you have to ship a battery around the world and dispose of the battery later etc. But my real issue is range and how many people i can fit in a electric suv give me a 8 seats with 700 miles range and ill bite (well for less than 75k since im a cheap skate.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,979
6,557
136
Once again, your answer is a vague "infrastructure will be improved". It's not going to be improved by unicorns - in the above example, who will pay the fairly substantial bill? Federal government? State/province? Municipality? Owners? If owners, would there be subsidies? And what's the timeline? Can government or HOA force owners?
"No new ICE by 20XX" is a lot more definite statement than "someone will pay for and improve infrastructure at some point".

There is no "no new ICE by 20XX" statement for Canada. So your deadline is imaginary.

OTOH, municipalities have already been mandating 100% EV infrastructure for new residential construction.

So the situation is opposite to what you suggest, there is no ICE deadline, but infrastructure growth is being mandated. Examples from BC:

https://pluginbc.ca/policy/
City of Burnaby
  • All parking spaces for dwelling units shall include an energized outlet capable of providing Level 2 charging or higher
City of Coquitlam

  • All new constructions must have one energized outlet capable of L2 charging for every dwelling unit
City of Nelson
  • One stall per dwelling unit is required to be EV ready in new single family and multi-unit residential.
City of North Vancouver
The zoning bylaw has been amended to include 100% EV ready parking in multi-unit residential buildings:
  • This applies to development or building permit applications accepted for review on or after June 1, 2019.
  • All parking spaces in new residential buildings must have a labelled, energized outlet capable of providing Level 2 charging for an electric vehicle.
City of Vancouver
Building Code Bylaw 10908 requiring EV charging in new builds (commercial and residential), revised bylaw Electric Vehicle Charging s 10.2.3.

  • This bylaw was updated on March 14, 2018 to increase the percentage of EV-ready stalls in multi-unit residential buildings from 20% to 100%
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,820
136
Yes, but everyone wanted cell phones. Thats not the case for electrics at the moment.

That's not a great comparison. Everyone wanted cellphones, but they didn't necessarily want smartphones; the iPhone and Android gave people an incentive to step up their cellphone experience.

Ditto EVs. Many people crave cars; EVs are just a superior extension of that experience. If someone can get a comparably priced car that's faster, quieter and more reliable while cutting emissions, it might not take much for them to switch.
 
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drnickriviera

Platinum Member
Jan 30, 2001
2,445
255
136
What did they do when air conditioning was invented? An EV is not going to use any more power than an A/C unit. Either way as long as people pay their bill it's up to the company to provide the services being paid for. It's that simple. If they need to upgrade substations or power plants well they'll just have to do it.
This is actually a good statement. I've started logging home energy usage. My electric water heater is on track to use as much electricity as my brothers bolt. 200kwh/mo That will get the Bolt around 800-1000mi/mo which is pretty close to the national average.

Tennessee is going to use their VW diesel settlement money to build out a DC charging network. They want to put chargers every 50 miles on the interstate and major highways. More states do that and road trips will be a non issue
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,024
2,756
136
People always say "there's no infrastructure" but imagine the amount of infrastructure that had to be setup when ICE cars got invented. There was no gas stations or means to distribute oil. But yet it happened.

For EVs the infrastructure already exists. It's called power plants and power lines. That particular line is 500kv and goes to a 349MW power plant. Considering what it was doing to my hair pretty sure you can charge an EV if you just park under it.

As for charging stations, at the end of the day it's just a fancy plug, they are not that special. Anyone can install them as long as you have a means of running power from your electrical panel.
You do realize that underground conduit needs to be run to giant squares of a parking lot, all on private property? Since these charging points are on private property, making the stations exclusive to the residents also has to be considered. The wiring and construction methods must also be done to prevent the shocks, fires, and vandalism; meaning "da ghetto" is not exactly going to be served anytime soon.

That's where the infrastructure is "deficient". I delivered pizzas once upon a time, so I've dealt with numerous OLD apartments that will NOT be torn down willy nilly(tearing down old people and housing and low income housing for new luxurious housing is tone deaf) because they are still clearly making BANK, far more than more of the little couch people posting in this thread. . Not freaking Vancouver, which is a 1% only city these days.

Probably the no man's land of possible trouble are townhouses with outdoor power outlets. Yes, you can run a extension cord to the car, but it can become cumbersome when every house is running an extension cord out to their cars. An annoyance at best or some nut suing for a trip hazard at worst. Since they are run by HOAs or condos, what is common area and what is not matters a lot as well.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
69,941
13,460
126
www.anyf.ca
You do realize that underground conduit needs to be run to giant squares of a parking lot, all on private property? Since these charging points are on private property, making the stations exclusive to the residents also has to be considered. The wiring and construction methods must also be done to prevent the shocks, fires, and vandalism; meaning "da ghetto" is not exactly going to be served anytime soon.

That's where the infrastructure is "deficient". I delivered pizzas once upon a time, so I've dealt with numerous OLD apartments that will NOT be torn down willy nilly(tearing down old people and housing and low income housing for new luxurious housing is tone deaf) because they are still clearly making BANK, far more than more of the little couch people posting in this thread. . Not freaking Vancouver, which is a 1% only city these days.

Probably the no man's land of possible trouble are townhouses with outdoor power outlets. Yes, you can run a extension cord to the car, but it can become cumbersome when every house is running an extension cord out to their cars. An annoyance at best or some nut suing for a trip hazard at worst. Since they are run by HOAs or condos, what is common area and what is not matters a lot as well.

That's up to each individual property owner to decide how to do it though. If you buy an EV you will need to install a charging point, not any different than if you get A/C installed you need to run power for the outside condenser unit. Apartments and condos might be harder as land lords may not be willing to allow installation of charging points but that is stuff people will need to figure out before they buy an EV. It's a small enough problem that will have a solution.

As for public charging stations that's just a bonus, not a need. There is already conduit going to light posts and what not in parking lots so some may be able to run extra cabling through those. Either way, public chargers will come with time. Would be nice if all the car makers just agreed to a standard charger that works for all cars instead of each manufacturer being responsible for their own network though. But either way this is all stuff that's solvable and not a show stopper. I'm sure when gas cars originally surfaced, gas stations were not everywhere.
 
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