Our supposed EV future....(updated)

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Dec 10, 2005
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New ICE powered vehicles will no longer be available in 20 years anywhere. EVs are part of the future and the roads will not be littered with vehicles because someone forgot to plugin.
What's missing from a lot of these discussions is how we can also move towards a future that doesn't require 1:1 ICE:EV replacement and that the. We need to remember that the currently built world didn't appear overnight, and it won't change overnight. EV plans should include other items like transit-oriented development, bicycle infrastructure, and even electric bike subsidies; these things could spur many households to move from 2 cars to 0-1.
 
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KeithP

Diamond Member
Jun 15, 2000
5,664
201
106
I've been driving for over 30 years and I've been through a lot from dead car batteries, pushing cars that ran out of gas, calling AAA, etc.

I have been driving for over 40 years. I have never run a car out of gas, I have never had a dead battery strand me anyplace, and I only had to call a tow truck once because of a part failure.

There will always be inattentive drivers that have problems and there will always be the occasional problems that a driver couldn't see coming. We learn, we adapt…at least the smart ones will. It was that way with fossil fuel powered vehicles, it will be that way with electric vehicles, and it will be that way with whatever replaces EVs.

-KeithP
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,687
2,604
126
I have been driving for over 40 years. I have never run a car out of gas, I have never had a dead battery strand me anyplace, and I only had to call a tow truck once because of a part failure.

There will always be inattentive drivers that have problems and there will always be the occasional problems that a driver couldn't see coming. We learn, we adapt…at least the smart ones will. It was that way with fossil fuel powered vehicles, it will be that way with electric vehicles, and it will be that way with whatever replaces EVs.

-KeithP

Hmmm... never ran out of gas and no dead battery or tow, lucky you.
 

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
(I posted this in another thread but it might also be good here)

I've been wondering about this electrified car future we are supposed to heading for. I've been driving for over 30 years and I've been through a lot from dead car batteries, pushing cars that ran out of gas, calling AAA, etc.

Since people will do things like forget to plug in their car overnight that has a low charge and they barely make it to work on time but the car is dead or they are out somewhere and run out of juice short of charging station, what do they do?

Once everyone is expected to own an EV are you going to see stranded cars everywhere?

And what about mobile charging? Normally when you go to a gas station, it only takes about 5 minutes to fill up completely and be good for two weeks and 300+ miles. If there is an extended blackout are you just f-d?

But can you imagine sitting at the gas station for 20-40 minutes?!! I cant.

The only thing I see happening is EV manufactures develop a system that will allow you to drop in a small replaceable battery that you buy at a gas station that gives you just enough charge to get home and charge for the night. This should reduce the time to get back on the road back to a 5 min trip.

Also, if you a stranded by the road then AAA can bring you this "drop in" battery and you can be on your way again. Heck, you might even carry a spare drop in battery for emergencies.

Just my thoughts.

Having lived with a Tesla for a year now, I will share of my thoughts based on my experience.

1. It's very hard to run out of battery unless you purposely try to get yourself stranded. There are so many ways to see how much charge you have, how far you can go and how much power you are using. There is also potential that cars can charge each other if that is enabled. Very easy for a truck rolling around with a few PowerWalls or equivalent to help a stranded motorist.

2. Any trip the gas station is going out of your way, even if filling up at Costco at the end of a shopping trip. I pretty much just plug in over night and ready to go in the morning. On a road trip, after driving for 3 hours or so, stopping for 20 minutes to stretch your legs, use the bathroom and get a bite to already takes time. With Tesla at least, the stalls are in convenient locations that provide everything one would need for a driving break. I have taken two 1,000 mile round trips and the time with both an ICE car and Tesla was the same length.

3. The bigger overall challenge is scaling. Tesla and most others can't go much faster on producing batteries and building charging locations. Right now, most states only have a hundred or so Super Charging stalls and are mostly configured for cars. Tesla will need to make some drastic changes if they expect Cybertrucks to be charging at them and 2-3x the number of users.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,406
43,897
136
2. Any trip the gas station is going out of your way, even if filling up at Costco at the end of a shopping trip. I pretty much just plug in over night and ready to go in the morning. On a road trip, after driving for 3 hours or so, stopping for 20 minutes to stretch your legs, use the bathroom and get a bite to already takes time. With Tesla at least, the stalls are in convenient locations that provide everything one would need for a driving break. I have taken two 1,000 mile round trips and the time with both an ICE car and Tesla was the same length.

This is where I get into arguments with people. I am told that charging for 20 or 30 minutes every 3-4 hours is just too monumental of a hardship to bear.
 
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ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
3,248
1,655
136
This is where I get into arguments with people. I am told that charging for 20 or 30 minutes every 3-4 hours is just too monumental of a hardship to bear.
It is a pain in the ass than can easily be avoided. In addition, gas stations are much more abundant than charging stations, so you can stop almost anywhere you wish.

For instance, driving to see my daughter in Ohio is about a 12 hour trip, so adding 30 min every 3 hours adds 2 hours to an already very long trip. I know you have to stop to rest if driving solo, but if you have several (or even 2) drivers, you can make a very quick fuel stop to switch drivers, and pack sandwiches to eat on the road.
 
Reactions: Elfear

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,024
2,756
136
Pull the tens of billions of dollars in subsidies that the oil & gas industry gets and divert that to EV infrastructure and it might not turn out the way you think.
Given how the federal government doles out money, the hottest "rising cities" would get back that money first.

It's not like some 1970s complex is going just get that phantom money outright and then they can tear up the parking spaces, hire electricians, pass government inspections, etc.

These are private property operations and thus funding comes from the rental or HOA dues of the residents paid to some money-grubbing property management company that is not going to be willing to spend on unless the profit is more than the cost.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
It is a pain in the ass than can easily be avoided. In addition, gas stations are much more abundant than charging stations, so you can stop almost anywhere you wish.

For instance, driving to see my daughter in Ohio is about a 12 hour trip, so adding 30 min every 3 hours adds 2 hours to an already very long trip. I know you have to stop to rest if driving solo, but if you have several (or even 2) drivers, you can make a very quick fuel stop to switch drivers, and pack sandwiches to eat on the road.
I know it’s more of a Tesla thing than ev vs ICE but I found that driving with auto pilot makes the trip much easier and the longer stops more welcome. Being more relaxed helps not making you wish it would get over sooner.
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,024
2,756
136
(I posted this in another thread but it might also be good here)

I've been wondering about this electrified car future we are supposed to heading for. I've been driving for over 30 years and I've been through a lot from dead car batteries, pushing cars that ran out of gas, calling AAA, etc.

Since people will do things like forget to plug in their car overnight that has a low charge and they barely make it to work on time but the car is dead or they are out somewhere and run out of juice short of charging station, what do they do?

Once everyone is expected to own an EV are you going to see stranded cars everywhere?

And what about mobile charging? Normally when you go to a gas station, it only takes about 5 minutes to fill up completely and be good for two weeks and 300+ miles. If there is an extended blackout are you just f-d?

But can you imagine sitting at the gas station for 20-40 minutes?!! I cant.

The only thing I see happening is EV manufactures develop a system that will allow you to drop in a small replaceable battery that you buy at a gas station that gives you just enough charge to get home and charge for the night. This should reduce the time to get back on the road back to a 5 min trip.

Also, if you a stranded by the road then AAA can bring you this "drop in" battery and you can be on your way again. Heck, you might even carry a spare drop in battery for emergencies.

Just my thoughts.
Eventually, people with EV trucks will make sure to carry THIS behemoth around "in case of emergency".


Can't escape gas.

AAA will probably have their trucks become a giant mobile charger to perform the same function as a gas can refill.

The greater safety concern is how the batteries will hold up against major impacts and not get set ablaze with a nasty electrical fire.
 
Reactions: sandorski

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,024
2,756
136
Pshaw. Unless state governments meddle in the free-markets and try to stupidly outlaw ICE vehicles, they should be available for purchase for pretty much the rest of our lifetimes.
Bans won't come but the rising fuel standards will decrease the reliability and longevity of ICEs. Cars are already being "plasticized". I think the manufacturers are taking it in stride because the obsolescence=more revenue.

The existence of "widelands" where there are giants lots of an acre or more will make sure the ICE will not go fully extinct. In such places, gas will remain the more reliable and failsafe fuel. If the grid fails due to trees, snow, tornadoes, etc, the gasoline can make weathering through the event much easier.
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,024
2,756
136
What's missing from a lot of these discussions is how we can also move towards a future that doesn't require 1:1 ICE:EV replacement and that the. We need to remember that the currently built world didn't appear overnight, and it won't change overnight. EV plans should include other items like transit-oriented development, bicycle infrastructure, and even electric bike subsidies; these things could spur many households to move from 2 cars to 0-1.
One vehicle for a family used to work decades ago. The economy has shifted since then.

Bikes are for cities only and not suitable for suburbia.
 
Dec 10, 2005
27,667
12,095
136
One vehicle for a family used to work decades ago. The economy has shifted since then.

Bikes are for cities only and not suitable for suburbia.
This is myopic - it assumes that our currently built world is immutable. It didn't appear overnight, and we can certainly take steps to reduce our dependence on personal automobiles. Sure, it's not going to be for everyone, but we can't just keep going down this insane rabbit hole of SFH sprawl where everyone just drives everywhere.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,687
2,604
126
Having lived with a Tesla for a year now, I will share of my thoughts based on my experience.

1. It's very hard to run out of battery unless you purposely try to get yourself stranded. There are so many ways to see how much charge you have, how far you can go and how much power you are using. There is also potential that cars can charge each other if that is enabled. Very easy for a truck rolling around with a few PowerWalls or equivalent to help a stranded motorist.

2. Any trip the gas station is going out of your way, even if filling up at Costco at the end of a shopping trip. I pretty much just plug in over night and ready to go in the morning. On a road trip, after driving for 3 hours or so, stopping for 20 minutes to stretch your legs, use the bathroom and get a bite to already takes time. With Tesla at least, the stalls are in convenient locations that provide everything one would need for a driving break. I have taken two 1,000 mile round trips and the time with both an ICE car and Tesla was the same length.

3. The bigger overall challenge is scaling. Tesla and most others can't go much faster on producing batteries and building charging locations. Right now, most states only have a hundred or so Super Charging stalls and are mostly configured for cars. Tesla will need to make some drastic changes if they expect Cybertrucks to be charging at them and 2-3x the number of users.

Thanks for sharing personal EV experiences. It was insightful.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,687
2,604
126
It is a pain in the ass than can easily be avoided. In addition, gas stations are much more abundant than charging stations, so you can stop almost anywhere you wish.

For instance, driving to see my daughter in Ohio is about a 12 hour trip, so adding 30 min every 3 hours adds 2 hours to an already very long trip. I know you have to stop to rest if driving solo, but if you have several (or even 2) drivers, you can make a very quick fuel stop to switch drivers, and pack sandwiches to eat on the road.

I've driven from DFW to Phoenix AZ in one a couple of times. Its a grueling 1,000 mile journey that usually takes about 14-17 hours and I've done it with just a few breaks.

Most of the journey is in Texas where the speed limit on average outside city limits is 75 MPH, with most going 85+. Once I did 133MPH for almost 20 mins near El Paso. All I could see was a tunnel of speed. I normally keep it at 80 or less to give me more reaction time to possible hazards (or cops).

HOWEVER, the more stops you have to make, the lower your overall travel speed. Sure you need food, bathroom, gas and stretch breaks but you got to make them really quick. Even with an average speed of 80MPH and the 133MPH jaunt, the overall speed measured over distance was just 63 MPH because I took about an hour worth of breaks.

Now throw an EV into the mix and waiting for them to charge to .... will it be possible to make than run in one day anymore ...by yourself?
 
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Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
30,383
912
126
2. Any trip the gas station is going out of your way, even if filling up at Costco at the end of a shopping trip. I pretty much just plug in over night and ready to go in the morning. On a road trip, after driving for 3 hours or so, stopping for 20 minutes to stretch your legs, use the bathroom and get a bite to already takes time. With Tesla at least, the stalls are in convenient locations that provide everything one would need for a driving break. I have taken two 1,000 mile round trips and the time with both an ICE car and Tesla was the same length.

The amenities around a Supercharger are just entirely dependent upon luck (or a good amount of research). The best ones are near somewhere like Walmart or at the side of a gas station. When I went from AL to PA, the one in Chattanooga was literally located in the airport's long-term parking, which I had to pull a temporary, 15-minute pass just to use it. There was one in Virginia that was located beside a hotel where the only nearby amenities were some standard restaurants that wouldn't have late-night hours. (Also, it's a bit awkward using a hotel's bathroom when you're not a patron.) Then there was also the awkward one somewhere in PA (I think I was near Carlise?) that was literally behind a grocery store in a strip mall. I can't imagine telling a timid person to charge there in the middle of the night! There was also the one (also in PA) where it barely worked during the middle of the day; it worked great at 8 AM and 8 PM, but was about 20% of the aforementioned performance at 12 PM.

Also, this speaks nothing of range anxiety in a Tesla. The worst part is that Tesla's in-car navigation software is so lackluster, that you should just do most of the work yourself. The problem is that it has absolutely no settings for desired state of charge when arriving at a Supercharger. Typically, most of my destinations would have me arriving with 5-10% charge, and that's their estimate. In reality, the charge was typically worse because I would transition to an area with more drastic elevation changes (i.e. the steeper hills around Virginia). Engineering Explained did a video recently where he took the same trip that he did awhile back in his Model 3 Performance; however, he made a few changes. The main change is that he adjusted his Supercharger stops to inject smaller charging stops. (It's also cheaper when charging below 80%.) The big thing is that this trip was in winter vs. the previous one being in the summer, and even though he used a modest amount more power (due to the winter weather), he still took close to the same time even with the smaller charge stops.

Honestly, Tesla frustrates me a lot. They keep making these awkward decisions and ignoring what should be obvious areas in need of improvement. What frustrates me more is that if you want an EV, you'd probably be an idiot to get anything other than a Tesla. Ford brings out their Mustang EV, and it takes a Model S-sized battery to get Model 3-style range, and the worst part is that Ford isn't alone in that. The only company that I've seen get numbers close to Tesla is Lucid, and their cars are luxury models meant to compete with the Model S and above.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
The amenities around a Supercharger are just entirely dependent upon luck (or a good amount of research). The best ones are near somewhere like Walmart or at the side of a gas station. When I went from AL to PA, the one in Chattanooga was literally located in the airport's long-term parking, which I had to pull a temporary, 15-minute pass just to use it. There was one in Virginia that was located beside a hotel where the only nearby amenities were some standard restaurants that wouldn't have late-night hours. (Also, it's a bit awkward using a hotel's bathroom when you're not a patron.) Then there was also the awkward one somewhere in PA (I think I was near Carlise?) that was literally behind a grocery store in a strip mall. I can't imagine telling a timid person to charge there in the middle of the night! There was also the one (also in PA) where it barely worked during the middle of the day; it worked great at 8 AM and 8 PM, but was about 20% of the aforementioned performance at 12 PM.

Also, this speaks nothing of range anxiety in a Tesla. The worst part is that Tesla's in-car navigation software is so lackluster, that you should just do most of the work yourself. The problem is that it has absolutely no settings for desired state of charge when arriving at a Supercharger. Typically, most of my destinations would have me arriving with 5-10% charge, and that's their estimate. In reality, the charge was typically worse because I would transition to an area with more drastic elevation changes (i.e. the steeper hills around Virginia). Engineering Explained did a video recently where he took the same trip that he did awhile back in his Model 3 Performance; however, he made a few changes. The main change is that he adjusted his Supercharger stops to inject smaller charging stops. (It's also cheaper when charging below 80%.) The big thing is that this trip was in winter vs. the previous one being in the summer, and even though he used a modest amount more power (due to the winter weather), he still took close to the same time even with the smaller charge stops.

Honestly, Tesla frustrates me a lot. They keep making these awkward decisions and ignoring what should be obvious areas in need of improvement. What frustrates me more is that if you want an EV, you'd probably be an idiot to get anything other than a Tesla. Ford brings out their Mustang EV, and it takes a Model S-sized battery to get Model 3-style range, and the worst part is that Ford isn't alone in that. The only company that I've seen get numbers close to Tesla is Lucid, and their cars are luxury models meant to compete with the Model S and above.

I do agree that Tesla charging stations can be hit or miss depending on the route. I've been fortunate enough to hit ones that have a good amount of amenities. This is the challenge that I haven't seen thoroughly explored is the actual feasibility of a large number of vehicles being able to charge away from home. Gas stations both serve local and traveling motorist. However, if people have private chargers, it removes a huge chunk of the need for public ones expect along specific travel points. If you are driving in the Smokey Mountains, it's not like they have them along the way.

Then there is the ability to build enough of them to support the small amount of cars on the road. Then take into consideration something like the Cybertruck. Huge vehicles that may not be able to back in due to towing or needing to access the bed. Of all the charging stations I've been to, not a single one would be able to fit trucks easily. They are barely wide enough for an S to open it's door and allow a person to slip out. Those problems don't magically get better and I feel Tesla is already behind.

In general, a stop on the interstate can serve all of these edges cases and probably turn over a few hundred vehicles an hour where a single charging station with 10-12 stalls may do a few dozen. And as you noted, gas stations are conveniently placed at the stop. With Tesla, they can be a few minutes down the road and on the back side of a super market.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,406
43,897
136
Then there is the ability to build enough of them to support the small amount of cars on the road. Then take into consideration something like the Cybertruck. Huge vehicles that may not be able to back in due to towing or needing to access the bed. Of all the charging stations I've been to, not a single one would be able to fit trucks easily. They are barely wide enough for an S to open it's door and allow a person to slip out. Those problems don't magically get better and I feel Tesla is already behind.

It looks like Tesla is starting to plan for Cybertuck supercharging, although not pull though spaces yet (at least in this example). You're going to need a decent chunk or real estate for that so I'd expect it more along highways where there is space eventually.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-supercharger-spaces-v3/
 

KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
It looks like Tesla is starting to plan for Cybertuck supercharging, although not pull though spaces yet (at least in this example). You're going to need a decent chunk or real estate for that so I'd expect it more along highways where there is space eventually.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-supercharger-spaces-v3/

That's good news that they are starting. I just wonder how they can go from one such spot which has a lot of bureaucracy to dozens per state across the US. Don't get me wrong, I'm very invested in Tesla with owning stock, a Y and a Cybertruck on pre-order but I'm also trying to be realistic in what's possible.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,406
43,897
136
That's good news that they are starting. I just wonder how they can go from one such spot which has a lot of bureaucracy to dozens per state across the US. Don't get me wrong, I'm very invested in Tesla with owning stock, a Y and a Cybertruck on pre-order but I'm also trying to be realistic in what's possible.

Tesla certainly has a team that does basically nothing but supercharger sites (leasing/buying land, local approvals, utility coordination, etc) and showrooms. This should be very much in their arena. Back in the day when we had over 100 stores and built/bought more all the time we had full time 2 real estate guys, 2 construction guys, and a host of hired guns (architects, lawyers, contactors, expediters, etc) for any given project depending on locality.
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
12,024
2,756
136
This is myopic - it assumes that our currently built world is immutable. It didn't appear overnight, and we can certainly take steps to reduce our dependence on personal automobiles. Sure, it's not going to be for everyone, but we can't just keep going down this insane rabbit hole of SFH sprawl where everyone just drives everywhere.
These days, "sprawl" always comes with some degree of urban planning that some essential businesses like grocery stores are reachable without having to exit the community boundaries, even if a car is needed. It's very easy to develop and plan over an old shopping mall or farmland that got sold. I would question the feasibility of built a giant high-end brand new city of elite high rises and all the amenities of a New York on parcels bordering forest and farmland and located far away from the moneyholders.

It was economically feasible to go one car back then. It's not now. The market has adjust to the larger labor force and everyone has to work and fend for themselves. That's not changing.

Put the workplace a half mile from home and skip the public transportation altogether, then your pie-in-the-sky utopia can become a reality. But if someone needs to work in a laboratory, that's certainly not too practical.

People are taken out of cars because traffic sucks and that the local lands are heavily developed. Not because of the environment. Transit-oriented development's de fact goal is to make city life easy and increase revenue flows into the transit system, not to save the environment. It's not surprising that many examples of TOD are also in places that was able to procure rail funding and a rail system many decades ago and in established major cities with high collective spending power.

Public transit are designed with a model of movement, often with a periphery-to-center model. Those who need to go East-west, some other direction not included in the model can use it, but with a heavy, heavy time cost.

You sounds like someone who has never rode public transportation or even paid attention to how the local governments run their network. Ridership determines frequency of services. Routes that go where "everyone goes" can have much more service than those living on the "edge".


I live in an area where 35 miles is the distance from countryside to the city itself, and the city happens to be designed to be separated into four quadrants.

Where there is bare farmland land to be developed, urban planning is evident as the lots are populated with town centers.

However, houses that were built up from decades before are usually not going anywhere. Massive road changes are not going to happen.

I also happen to live in a state with a Democrat-monopoly bordered by more Democratic monopolies. So there are no Republican roadblocks here. Only internal constraints exist.
 

rstrohkirch

Platinum Member
May 31, 2005
2,434
367
126
I was curious since you guys are having this conversation and looked where I live and travel for charging stations. What's the difference between a Charge Point Charging Station, Tesla Destination Charger and the Tesla Supercharger in terms of speed? There are no Tesla Superchargers for the entire upper east side of my state. On the upper west side there are 3 and quite a few of the other chargers.
 
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WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
32,548
10,727
136
You mean like this one?


View attachment 39346
Yeah. Like that but actually for sale!

TBH what I want is an electric convertible mini with 300mile range.

Edit: If I was buying cars that dont exist yet I'd rather have...

 
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KentState

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2001
8,397
393
126
I was curious since you guys are having this conversation and looked where I live and travel for charging stations. What's the difference between a Charge Point Charging Station, Tesla Destination Charger and the Tesla Supercharger in terms of speed? There are no Tesla Superchargers for the entire upper east side of my state. On the upper west side there are 3 and quite a few of the other chargers.

Charge Point is a generic charging station that works across most EV's. They are usually pretty slow (10-20 miles/hour) and prices can vary widely. However, they are scaling quickly and adding faster chargers. While I'm also a stock holder (Switchback Energy), I do believe they are going to be a strong player in the market.

Tesla Super Chargers are mostly V2 or V3 which are anywhere from 60Kw if have to share stalls on a V2 up to 250Kw on the V3 (300-500 miles/hour.

Tesla destination chargers are pretty much the home solution but offered by a business to top you off. I may be wrong, but it's from the same 40amp limit that you get at home (40ish miles/hour).

I may be off on some of the numbers but should give you an idea of the differences.
 

bigi

Platinum Member
Aug 8, 2001
2,490
156
106
ICE car - if one forgets to fill up with poison, there is no go, OP.

Then I read rest of the OP.

Rubbish.
 
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