Our supposed EV future....(updated)

[Elfear]

The best part is that they already are, and they will succeed. And even if they somehow didn't, market forces will kick ICE cars out of dealerships regardless. You might see used cars on the market, but new cars? Not in 20 years or so. And of course, there won't be much of an audience for used ICE cars when the fuel and service infrastructures start fading away.

Once a decent used EV starts dipping into the $5-10k range, it will be a much more viable option for middle class and lower-middle class (not to mention folks hovering around the poverty line). EVs have some cool features but they are currently priced out of the range of the majority of folks.

I have to ask: if an EV delivers the range and performance you want while ultimately being more environmentally responsible than an ICE equivalent, why not get it? I, for one, like the thought of an EV that not only gets me wherever I need to go without emissions or noise, but can top up at home... and thrash equivalent gas cars in a race. I'm not so insecure that I need a loud burbling engine and a spew of toxic fumes to feel good about myself.

Some of us like the noise. I drove a Prius for 3yrs and it sucked away my soul. Yes, that is a little overdramatic but it was seriously the most boring vehicle I've ever driven. No "growling" engine noise as you say, no excitement on my daily commute. It was just a blah experience. I sold it and bought an SRT Charger. It was SO much more fun than that stupid Prius. It made me excited to jump in it every day, hear that Hemi rumble, and get pushed back in my seat every once in a while. I gladly paid the 2-3x gas bill for something I enjoyed.

Now, I realize that a Model 3 will be much faster than a Prius and it's one of the things that excites me about EVs in general but it's only one aspect of what makes motoring fun. The "personality" of EVs seems rather lifeless to me but I need to ride in a Tesla or other EV to make an educated statement there.

On another note, I drive from Kansas City to Logan, UT a couple times a year to see family and decided to look up superchargers along I-80. While there are a few stations along the way that would make the trip possible in a Tesla, I hate to bank on those few locations being functional and available on that 16hr trip. Not to mention that the charging times would probably push the trip into the "too long to straight shot" category and require an overnight stay somewhere. I know my situation may be in the minority though since there aren't a lot of charge stations in the Midwest.

 

[Commodus]

Some of us like the noise. I drove a Prius for 3yrs and it sucked away my soul. Yes, that is a little overdramatic but it was seriously the most boring vehicle I've ever driven. No "growling" engine noise as you say, no excitement on my daily commute. It was just a blah experience. I sold it and bought an SRT Charger. It was SO much more fun than that stupid Prius. It made me excited to jump in it every day, hear that Hemi rumble, and get pushed back in my seat every once in a while. I gladly paid the 2-3x gas bill for something I enjoyed.

Now, I realize that a Model 3 will be much faster than a Prius and it's one of the things that excites me about EVs in general but it's only one aspect of what makes motoring fun. The "personality" of EVs seems rather lifeless to me but I need to ride in a Tesla or other EV to make an educated statement there.

On another note, I drive from Kansas City to Logan, UT a couple times a year to see family and decided to look up superchargers along I-80. While there are a few stations along the way that would make the trip possible in a Tesla, I hate to bank on those few locations being functional and available on that 16hr trip. Not to mention that the charging times would probably push the trip into the "too long to straight shot" category and require an overnight stay somewhere. I know my situation may be in the minority though since there aren't a lot of charge stations in the Midwest.

I don't have first-hand experience with EVs beyond a session in an older Tesla Model S, but it's safe to say you'd like it much more than a Prius hybrid. Fast EVs have this solid, instant wave of torque that makes most ICE cars feel slow, even if some of them might reclaim the lead in longer runs. It's not as dramatic as a Hemi, but there's a giddy thrill to it. Especially knowing that a supposedly lumbering sedan can outrun sports cars while making barely a peep.

Charging infratructure is entering a new phase, I'd say. Right now, we're at the point where most places in the US are reachable using only Supercharger stations. The new challenge is to fill the gaps and make sure you can always get to where you're going without detours or waiting for an open spot at a station. That could take a few years, but I think it's coming.

 

[MtnMan]

A huge amount of "energy" (the energy used to move people and goods from point A to point B) is provided by gasoline and diesel vehicles.

Population is growing, and power grids are already being stressed, and saying they need more generating capacity to meet future demand. Some areas are mandating electric only homes, even banning natural gas heat or appliances in new construction.

Nimby's and enviro advocates oppose power plants, power lines, substations, etc., etc., at every turn. Then throw in the "anti-nuclear", "anti-wind turbine", and even "anti-solar farm" advocates. (Yes locally, there has been opposition to a proposed solar farm). Plus wind and solar are not feasible in some parts of the country.

We are not going to have the infrastructure to provide the generating capacity nor distribution grid for a vast number of EV's. And what will the gain be, as 62.6% of electricity is currently generated by burning fossil fuels. No nuclear is forthcoming, and older plants are being shutdown.

I don't have the answer, but I know that "build only EV's isn't a workable solution"

 

[Paratus]

A huge amount of "energy" (the energy used to move people and goods from point A to point B) is provided by gasoline and diesel vehicles.

Population is growing, and power grids are already being stressed, and saying they need more generating capacity to meet future demand. Some areas are mandating electric only homes, even banning natural gas heat or appliances in new construction.

Nimby's and enviro advocates oppose power plants, power lines, substations, etc., etc., at every turn. Then throw in the "anti-nuclear", "anti-wind turbine", and even "anti-solar farm" advocates. (Yes locally, there has been opposition to a proposed solar farm). Plus wind and solar are not feasible in some parts of the country.

We are not going to have the infrastructure to provide the generating capacity nor distribution grid for a vast number of EV's. And what will the gain be, as 62.6% of electricity is currently generated by burning fossil fuels. No nuclear is forthcoming, and older plants are being shutdown.

I don't have the answer, but I know that "build only EV's isn't a workable solution"

Guess you haven’t looked at my earlier post.

In 2019 we drove 3.22 trillion miles. BEVS get between 60MPGe all the way up to 140MPGe (Tesla Model 3 standard range +) so let’s assume a crappy average of 100MPGe and gas has energy equivalent of 33.7 KWh per gallon.

Multiply that out and we need an extra 1 Trillion kWh of electricity. Which is a 30% increase in the 3.8 trillion kWh we currently produce

By 2018 we were adding about about 50 billion kWh a year of renewable energy. If that doesn’t accelerate by 2038 we could replace all gas with electricity. If it does accelerate, which it should because renewables are now equal to or cheaper than gas, then we’ll hit it much sooner.

 

[FelixDeCat]

With the frigid temperatures of 4F-15F in DFW and most of North Texas, Gov. Gregg Abbot is warning of possible rolling blackouts if the energy grid is taxed much more:

Rolling outages possible; officials ask for limited power usage - Cross Timbers Gazette | Southern Denton County | Flower Mound | News

State officials are asking residents to limit their use of power and natural gas resources Sunday through Thursday, as the coming winter storm is expected to cause a huge demand on Texas’ power grid. Residents are asked to set their thermostats no higher than 68 degrees, close their blinds and...

www.crosstimbersgazette.com

State officials are asking residents to limit their use of power and natural gas resources Sunday through Thursday, as the coming winter storm is expected to cause a huge demand on Texas’ power grid.

Residents are asked to set their thermostats no higher than 68 degrees, close their blinds and curtains, unplug unused items and limit use of washing machines and dishwashers during the peak hours of mornings and evenings.

In response to extreme winter weather conditions, area residents may experience rolling outages over the course of the next 36 hours.

------------

And remember about 99% of the cars in Texas are ICE cars, and we are net exporter of energy! But yet even we can be taxed to point of possible rolling blackouts during certain times of the year when some power plants are taken offline for maintenance. Another article says right now wind turbine farms are frozen and solar is not viable right now due to overcast skies.

Are we ready to go 100% EV? What about even 25%? How about 15% by 2025?

Im guessing the answer is "no" to all of the above.

 

[K1052]

People are still unreasonably obsessed with the idea that EVs must and will be charged at the absolute peaks of demand and are thus unworkable.

If you want to argue about ERCOT’s slim reserve margins that’s a different conversation.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Its not a matter of reason or obsession, its a matter of reality. Hybrids are the only workable solution for at least the next 20+ years.

 

[K1052]

Its not a matter of reason or obsession, its a matter of reality. Hybrids are the only workable solution for at least the next 20+ years.

There are gigawatts to spare in the middle of the night which is when EVs should charge. Not sure how to explain this more clearly.

 

[Ajay]

Its not a matter of reason or obsession, its a matter of reality. Hybrids are the only workable solution for at least the next 20+ years.

Watch the video again. It seems you missed something.

 

[FelixDeCat]

There are gigawatts to spare in the middle of the night which is when EVs should charge. Not sure how to explain this more clearly.

Yet the state is warning of blackouts. Go figure.

 

[K1052]

Yet the state is warning of blackouts. Go figure.

Blame ERCOT’s modeling and resistance to interconnection with the western, and eastern, and Mexican grids.

edited: for clarity

 

[MtnMan]

There are gigawatts to spare in the middle of the night which is when EVs should charge. Not sure how to explain this more clearly.

Then why are power companies putting in huge battery storage facilities to be charged in the middle of the night because the generating capacity is coming up short for peak times? Duke, my local monoply, is investing $500 million in battery storage in my state.

And as we move away from fossil power generation, one option, solar will be producing zero power overnight.

 

[K1052]

Then why are power companies putting in huge battery storage facilities to be charged in the middle of the night because the generating capacity is coming up short for peak times? Duke, my local monoply, is investing $500 million in battery storage in my state.

And as we move away from fossil power generation, one option, solar will be producing zero power overnight.

Because batteries are starting to eat gas peaker’s lunch.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We are being forced to migrate to EVs like it or not. Dont want an EV? Tough. No more free choice, no more nothing.

But I think the ultimate goal is get everyone to give up personal transportation and move completely to public transportation. I took pubic transpiration for years when I was young and I hated it. I could tell you all the reasons why, but suffice it to say I could not wait until I was old enough to drive and get my first car, which is exactly what I did.

 

[sandorski]

We are being forced to migrate to EVs like it or not. Dont want an EV? Tough. No more free choice, no more nothing.

But I think the ultimate goal is get everyone to give up personal transportation and move completely to public transportation. I took pubic transpiration for years when I was young and I hated it. I could tell you all the reasons why, but suffice it to say I could not wait until I was old enough to drive and get my first car, which is exactly what I did.

The Science is in and continuing to use ICE vehicles will only make future Generations lives more difficult than they already will be. Someone has to bear the Responsibility and being the first Generations to experience the beginning of it, it seems appropriate that it is us.

 

[Paratus]

Then why are power companies putting in huge battery storage facilities to be charged in the middle of the night because the generating capacity is coming up short for peak times? Duke, my local monoply, is investing $500 million in battery storage in my state.

And as we move away from fossil power generation, one option, solar will be producing zero power overnight.

I spent over a decade of my early career keeping 6 guys alive on nothing but solar and batteries. There’s no technical reason we can’t adequately run the grid on renewables and storage. It’s strictly a matter of cost.

The cost of renewable power generation is already competitive. Grid storage options are still expensive but dropping in price like renewables have done.

So I think the market is going to push towards fossil fuel replacement over the next couple of decades.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Posting this for historical records - 2/15/21.

As predicted, rolling blackouts AGAIN return to Texas:







I know, lets add EVs to this mix.

 

[sandorski]

Fossil Fuels never run in short supply under any circumstances.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Fossil Fuels never run in short supply under any circumstances.

Thats why you should be taking public transportation Sandorski.

Selfishly driving your EV to the grocery store to buy some gluten free wheat bread to make avocado toast and then going to Starbucks and buying a Chai Latte on the way home is too taxing on our environment.

One day everyone may be forced on public transportation since personal ownership of all cars, ICE and EV will be deemed non essential and socially/environmentally unacceptable.

 

[sandorski]

Thats why you should be taking public transportation Sandorski.

Selfishly driving your EV to the grocery store to buy some gluten free wheat bread to make avocado toast and then going to Starbucks and buying a Chai Latte on the way home is too taxing on our environment.

One day everyone may be forced on public transportation since personal ownership of all cars, ICE and EV will be deemed non essential and socially/environmentally unacceptable.

I suspect people will stop buying vehicles because it is more convenient and cost effective to use future Autonomous vehicles. Why own something when transport is just a few minutes away by pushing a button on an App?

 

[Muadib]

Fossil Fuels never run in short supply under any circumstances.

You weren't around during the 70's I take it?

 

[sandorski]

You weren't around during the 70's I take it?

Too young(7/8ish) to remember directly, but old enough now to be sarcastic about it.

 

[ponyo]

Posting this for historical records - 2/15/21.

As predicted, rolling blackouts AGAIN return to Texas:

View attachment 39734


View attachment 39735


I know, lets add EVs to this mix.

You wouldn't have any problem if you had Tesla solar and Powerwall at your home.

 

[Muadib]

Too young(7/8ish) to remember directly, but old enough now to be sarcastic about it.

I was 9-10. Sorry my meter is backordered.

 

[ondma]

You wouldn't have any problem if you had Tesla solar and Powerwall at your home.

Yea, like the guy who is working part time for 12 bucks an hour at Walmart can afford either of those.
Not everyone has gotten rich on Tesla stock like you.