PA primary thread

[Farang]

Let's hold the Marxist dialect

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Vic... your not making excuses for Obama losing right?

I think Hillary has a valid point about Obama not being able to win the general election.
Hillary has won all the big meaningful states and Obama has won all the little states. In the fall the Democrats need to win the big states to over come all the little states that always vote Republican. Obama has yet to show that he can win one of those 'big' states.

Why does Hillary's primary victory in "big states" mean she'd do better against McCain in those states, but Obama's primary victory in "small states" doesn't mean he'd do better against McCain in those states? Either a primary is an effective predictor of the general election or it's not, you can't have it both ways.

And for the record, I think it is NOT a good predictor. An election is about comparing two candidates, and when one of those candidates changes, the comparison changes. And of course Democratic primary voters are in no way a representative sample of the general voters in an election. You fail at science, but you do a pretty good job of seeing what you want to see

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Obama is capturing essentially the demographic that represents the future of the Democrats...concentrations of young, educated individuals who are gravitating back to urban centers...Hillary is essentially clinging on to the old rust belt blue collar workers, who are quickly becoming obsolete.

you mean the same demographic that's going to move out into the suburbs to raise their kids and lean more towards the right by the time the next election hits, as opposed to the bedrock of the democratic party?

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Obama is capturing essentially the demographic that represents the future of the Democrats...concentrations of young, educated individuals who are gravitating back to urban centers...Hillary is essentially clinging on to the old rust belt blue collar workers, who are quickly becoming obsolete.

you mean the same demographic that's going to move out into the suburbs to raise their kids and lean more towards the right by the time the next election hits, as opposed to the bedrock of the democratic party?

No, all of America is heading that way. Witness some of the younger Republicans on this board who support Obama (myself included).

 

[mozirry]

lol, can't believe they called it already.

Not like anyone doubted clinton was expected to win, but Obama at 47% REALLY is making it hard for Hilary to stay on board. The continued fight is hurting her more then it is Obama.

Would be hilarious if Obama squeaked a win here, but I think the people who count the precincts or whatever they are know pretty much have a good idea of what to expect.


In the end, what matters is that the Clinton administration will reunite the republican party like none-other and also that she has failed to impress voters in traditionally red states.

Missouri is a great viewpoint of what the nation will vote for in the general election and they voted for Obama. Pennsylvania is not a viewpoint of the nation.

SOrry, but she just needs to quit and start endorsing Obama

 

[mozirry]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Obama is capturing essentially the demographic that represents the future of the Democrats...concentrations of young, educated individuals who are gravitating back to urban centers...Hillary is essentially clinging on to the old rust belt blue collar workers, who are quickly becoming obsolete.

you mean the same demographic that's going to move out into the suburbs to raise their kids and lean more towards the right by the time the next election hits, as opposed to the bedrock of the democratic party?

My wife and I are very liberal, but we will not vote for Clinton.

That's no lie.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: loki8481
Hillary by under 10.

she'll proclaim it as a great victory (come back kid?), Obama will call it a distraction and add it to his list of things we're not supposed to be caring about, the media will question whether Obama can win white, working class states in the GE, and nothing will really change.

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Anything will add to the chorus of people asking her to quit.

fixed

she could win by 30 points and the Obamaphites would still look at the results and pull out a reason why they indicate that she should quit.

I'm going to go ahead and declare myself right on all counts based on what I've seen so far on the news and in this thread

like I've said, I don't think Hillary has a chance in the long run, but I don't see a reason why she should be strong-armed out of the race by the suits. I think campaigning in the last couple states will only benefit Obama in the end, and all this stuff about "for the party" over Hillary's individual ambition takes me back to studying Marx in college (gogo sociology major! )

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: loki8481
Hillary by under 10.

she'll proclaim it as a great victory (come back kid?), Obama will call it a distraction and add it to his list of things we're not supposed to be caring about, the media will question whether Obama can win white, working class states in the GE, and nothing will really change.

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Anything will add to the chorus of people asking her to quit.

fixed

she could win by 30 points and the Obamaphites would still look at the results and pull out a reason why they indicate that she should quit.

I'm going to go ahead and declare myself right on all counts based on what I've seen so far on the news and in this thread

like I've said, I don't think Hillary has a chance in the long run, but I don't see a reason why she should be strong-armed out of the race by the suits. I think campaigning in the last couple states will only benefit Obama in the end, and all this stuff about "for the party" over Hillary's individual ambition takes me back to studying Marx in college (gogo sociology major! )

I don't think anyone's arguing that the "suits" should "strong-arm" her out.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

I don't think anyone's arguing that the "suits" should "strong-arm" her out.

I don't know, that's just what I think of when I hear people talk about Gore and Carter trying to force her out.

 

[Vic]

Hmm... Hillary suddenly got some big numbers out of Pittsburgh. I guess they fell for her "I was against NAFTA all along" lies. Sigh...

Anyway, didn't anyone notice that Ron Paul is polling double-digits in the Pub race in every county? I'm quite amused.

 

[alchemize]

8 points? A clear and decisive victory for Obama! It's over Billary...nothing but ugly coming your way...you might pull a couple redneck states, but Oregon and NC will be plenty to offset that.

 

[Lemon law]

I TOO AM HEARING A 53 TO 47 HILLARY VICTORY. Too small to do much for Hillary, big enough to keep her in the hunt.

Were I a democratic super delegate, I would be asking only two basic questions now.

1. Given the fact that Hillary has won all the big blue states needed to keep the dems completive in 08, can Obama do as well with Hillary out of the equations. After all, losers like Gore and Kerry won those states in past elections. Why should Obama be assumed to do worse in those must have blue States.?

2. Given the fact that Obama has done disproportionately better than Hillary in red States, can an Obama heading the ticket perhaps peel off just a few red States the repubs have won in the past. Because just one or two extra medium sized red States in the democratic column is all it takes to swing the electoral college to the democratic side.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Vic
Hmm... Hillary suddenly got some big numbers out of Pittsburgh. I guess they fell for her "I was against NAFTA all along" lies. Sigh...

Anyway, didn't anyone notice that Ron Paul is polling double-digits in the Pub race in every county? I'm quite amused.

She's been polling ahead in Pittsburgh since the beginning

 

[jpeyton]

50% counted.

54/46 for Clinton.

She's up by 90k votes. Not enough to make a dent in delegates or popular vote.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I TOO AM HEARING A 53 TO 47 HILLARY VICTORY. Too small to do much for Hillary, big enough to keep her in the hunt.

Were I a democratic super delegate, I would be asking only two basic questions now.

1. Given the fact that Hillary has won all the big blue states needed to keep the dems completive in 08, can Obama do as well with Hillary out of the equations. After all, losers like Gore and Kerry won those states in past elections. Why should Obama be assumed to do worse in those must have blue States.?

2. Given the fact that Obama has done disproportionately better than Hillary in red States, can an Obama heading the ticket perhaps peel off just a few red States the repubs have won in the past. Because just one or two extra medium sized red States in the democratic column is all it takes to swing the electoral college to the democratic side.

Just my opinion, but I've believed #2 all along. This year of all years, I just don't see the blue states swinging red, especially with McCain running. While I do see the possibility of more than a few red states swinging blue, particularly in the South with Obama running.

A lot of people like to talk about the quality of the Democratic frontrunners, but look at who the Pubs are running! A Senator from Arizona. What happened the last time a Senator from Arizona ran for President?

 

[Dari]

At this point, I think Hillary is waiting for that 3 A.M. call from Obama asking her to join his Dream Team. I think she'll be waiting in vain.

 

[lupi]

oh noes! It's up to 55/45 with 60% in, hurry we need some obamabot spin!

 

[jpeyton]

Back down to 54/46 with 66% in.

I just threw up a little in my mouth after listening to the Clinton victory speech.

We'll see what kind of spin the put on the unchanged delegate gap tomorrow.

 

[mshan]

http://www.philly.com/philly/n...politics/18018274.html

Notice how some Philadelphia suburbs have no results yet.

Gotta wonder whether real spread will be 6 points, and MSM / corporate media just wants to prolong it out for ratings (and to make it seem like Hillary is really in this national race at all).

Also gotta wonder about MSM calling race for Hillary with 1% of vote in as a victory, when anything less than 10% margin was previously viewed as a win for Barrack Obama.

 

[lupi]

Originally posted by: mshan
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...politics/18018274.html

Notice how some Philadelphia suburbs have no results yet.

Gotta wonder whether real spread will be 6 points, and MSM / corporate media just wants to prolong it out for ratings (and to make it seem like Hillary is really in this national race at all).

That's what I'm talking about!


as if "the media" controlled the release of election results. :roll:

 

[mshan]

I think MSM calling race for Hillary with 1% of vote in is their attempt to frame this as some sort of victory of Hillary, when few fairly non-partisan commentators I've seen or read would probably say <+ 10 point margin for Hillary was a draw for her, at best, and does nothing to improve her standing in national race.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: mshan
I think MSM calling race for Hillary with 1% of vote in is their attempt to frame this as some sort of victory of Hillary.

yes... the media that's been humping Obama for the past 4 months is totally in Hillary's pocket.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: lupi

Originally posted by: mshan
http://www.philly.com/philly/n...politics/18018274.html

Notice how some Philadelphia suburbs have no results yet.

Gotta wonder whether real spread will be 6 points, and MSM / corporate media just wants to prolong it out for ratings (and to make it seem like Hillary is really in this national race at all).

That's what I'm talking about!


as if "the media" controlled the release of election results. :roll:

Really?

Do you really believe that the Pennsylvania board of elections or Pennsylvania Democratic party has more data than the news networks?

Really?

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Back down to 54/46 with 66% in.

I just threw up a little in my mouth after listening to the Clinton victory speech.

We'll see what kind of spin the put on the unchanged delegate gap tomorrow.

It's not hard: "Clinton toughs it out to win a wide open primary after being outspent 3 to 1. She's shown that she can win the BIG states Democrats need to win in the fall to beat the Republicans."

 

[jpeyton]

She's also shown she can piss away a 20 point gap down to 8 points.