PA primary thread

[mshan]

Dude, look at the map in the link provided.

Results don't reflect any votes in what looks like Western suburbs of Philadelphia.

Why isn't even a small percentage of votes from those precincts being added into state wide totals yet?

EDIT: look here (some precincts there have 1 or 2 total votes recorded so far):
http://dsf.chesco.org/election...sults/precincts_in.htm

I am not saying voting results in total were manipulated, just that story is being "spun" as Clinton victory, when it may end up being a draw, at best.

 

[lupi]

Originally posted by: mshan
Dude, look at the map in the link provided.

Results don't reflect any votes in what looks like Western suburbs of Philadelphia.

Why isn't even a small percentage of votes from those precincts being added into state wide totals yet?

Dude, you're being a dumbass because the same media you are creating some conspiracy about managing results already on air stated that the philly area has largely been unreported so far for the night.

But please keep handing out your tinfoil hats.

 

[jpeyton]

BTW, just to illustrate Hillary's money problem:

Primaries in my state are a month away, but Obama already has TV ads running all day here.

Haven't seen a Clinton ad in a week.

78% counted.

Still up 54/46. CNN says she has gained 6 delegates so far. :laugh:

0% counted from Chester county, west of Philly.

 

[351Cleveland]

55/45 at 79%

Not a route, but enough to keep her in it... and that is all I want at this point. The entertainment value is too high

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
She's also shown she can piss away a 20 point gap down to 8 points.

"Cal it a Comeback?"

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
BTW, just to illustrate Hillary's money problem:

Primaries in my state are a month away, but Obama already has TV ads running all day here.

Haven't seen a Clinton ad in a week.

And despite that huge money advantage Obama can do no better than a NINE point loss.

And it has been six week since the last vote so he had a TON of time to hammer away at Hillary.

I do think Obama will win in the end, but I think he is going to have a really hard time beating McCain in the fall.

 

[lopri]

I think it will end up with close to 12% diff.

 

[dmcowen674]

She picked up 28 more delegates than Obama.

Damn, she was outspent 2 to 1 and Obama didn't crush her.

I bet that crushes a lot of guys in here.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

And it has been six week since the last vote so he had a TON of time to hammer away at Hillary.

Exactly. He's been a household name in Pennsylvania for almost 50 days! Hillary was virtually unknown in the state and she still managed to pull out a victory

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
She picked up 28 more delegates than Obama.

No, actually she didn't.

CNN shows her at +3 delegates right now with 86% counted.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
She picked up 28 more delegates than Obama.

Damn, she was outspent 2 to 1 and Obama didn't crush her.

I bet that crushes a lot of guys in here.

I read that same AP article and it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It says "Clinton won at least 28 delegates to the party's national convention, with 130 still to be awarded." I think they are referring to raw delegates, not an advantage, because there are 158 total delegates in PA. Even then it doesn't make any sense because it means Clinton is winning 28-0 in delegates.

I think I heard Chuck Todd of MSNBC saying 16 was the best Clinton could hope for.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I do think Obama will win in the end, but I think he is going to have a really hard time beating McCain in the fall.

I guess that's where we differ. Attack ads against McCain will be deadly simple.

Bush tax cuts. McCain tax cuts.

Bush Iraq. McCain Iraq.

Bush/Iraq at record disapproval ratings. McCain...

Sorry, but 2004 this ain't. Hillary and Obama have their biggest challenge getting the party nomination; the general election will be simple by comparison for either one.

 

[sportage]

Face it, the Obama luster is fading, fading, fading.
Hillary is a logical sound choice for the democrats.

Like getting a loan, you can go with a attractive looking variable
and get bitten in the behind down the road, or go with a nice fixed
rate and know where you will be long term.

But whatever you do or think, DONT believe EVERYTHING you hear/read from
the press. And especially take the MSNBC?s ?talking heads? (thats you Tim R.)
with a grain of salt. They have had Hillary's funeral more often than Dracula's.

The talking heads would LOVE to control the game and make the rules.
They don?t!!! Voters do. The ?heads? refuse to accept that FACT?

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
She picked up 28 more delegates than Obama.

Damn, she was outspent 2 to 1 and Obama didn't crush her.

I bet that crushes a lot of guys in here.

No, she picked up *at least* 28 delegates...meaning she got at least 18 percent of the vote

I imagine no one's crushed except for all the guys who were predicting an Obama win.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: sportage
Hillary is a logical sound choice for the democrats.

Even the most die-hard of Hillary supporters in the Democratic party admit she absolutely cannot win the nomination without at least one of the following:

1) Popular vote
2) Pledged delegates

She has neither one right now, and that won't change after tonight either.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: jpeyton
BTW, just to illustrate Hillary's money problem:

Primaries in my state are a month away, but Obama already has TV ads running all day here.

Haven't seen a Clinton ad in a week.

And despite that huge money advantage Obama can do no better than a NINE point loss.

Actually, you have to admit that Obama got a lot of people to change their mind. Despite all the crap in these forums, I've yet to see a person change their mind about which candidate they favor.

 

[351Cleveland]

Dont be so sure. I would put my money on at least Florida popular vote being considered if not the delegates. They were both on the ballot, and they both didnt campaign. Neither really put anything into it. Obama may not like the results, but they arent invalid.

Michigan is another story. Only Hillary was even on the ballot. I cant see that state being valid at any point.

Put Florida back in the pot, and it gets a lot tighter and could be tied... unless I am reading the RCP numbers wrong... which is possible... as I am on my 3rd margarita... hold the mix

 

[ProfJohn]

A week ago Zogby had Hillary and Obama tied, tonight she wins by 10 points.

That is a huge shift in momentum and it comes after Obama's bitter comment and his bad debate performance.

Now we wait for Indiana to see if Hillary can build on her momentum, or if this was a fluke.

Either way it does not look good for Obama. He should be putting distance between himself and Hillary like most candidate who are on the way to the nomination do.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: 351Cleveland
Dont be so sure. I would put my money on at least Florida popular vote being considered if not the delegates. They were both on the ballot, and they both didnt campaign. Neither really put anything into it. Obama may not like the results, but they arent invalid.

Michigan is another story. Only Hillary was even on the ballot. I cant see that state being valid at any point.

Put Florida back in the pot, and it gets a lot tighter and could be tied... unless I am reading the RCP numbers wrong... which is possible... as I am on my 3rd margarita... hold the mix

With Florida Obama has a 200,000 vote lead. Less than 1%.

Take away his home state and her home state and she is in the lead.

 

[sprok]

Wasn't Hillary slated to win by 20 points or more? I really don't see how she can win the nomination by "normal means", unless she gets some ridiculous margin of victory in IN and NC.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
A week ago Zogby had Hillary and Obama tied, tonight she wins by 10 points.

That is a huge shift in momentum and it comes after Obama's bitter comment and his bad debate performance.

Now we wait for Indiana to see if Hillary can build on her momentum, or if this was a fluke.

Either way it does not look good for Obama. He should be putting distance between himself and Hillary like most candidate who are on the way to the nomination do.

Nice selective memory -- http://www.realclearpolitics.c...primary-240.html#polls

Originally posted by: sprok
Wasn't Hillary slated to win by 20 points or more? I really don't see how she can win the nomination by "normal means", unless she gets some ridiculous margin of victory in IN and NC.

69% in every remaining state would do it: http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

 

[LTC8K6]

She can win the nomination if the delegates decide that she can deliver the presidency and Obama can't. The states that Hillary is winning would tend to support the idea.

It's too early to say Hillary can't win the nomination.

May 6 awaits.

 

[ProfJohn]

^ try this link.

Right on the first page of the PDF.
link

4-15/16
Clinton 45%
Obama 44%
That was a week ago to the day.

 

[Lemon law]

Like the old style Southern democratic primaries of 50 years ago, the candidate who won the democratic primary always went on to win the general election.

Yet in 08, the dems have two very strong and similar candidates the democratic electorate are still undecided on. Yet in the last of the big blue state primaries, Hillary seems to win over Obama on just one major constituency. Namely on the unskilled worker vote that has been the giant loser in a global economy. Somehow Hillary has hit the right note while Obama has appeared to be too elitist.

What is hard for me to think of if Obama wins the nomination, is any possibility that McCain can pick up any of those votes when the republirats have been the party most responsible for selling their interests down the river. That same unskilled worker group has watched candidates of both parties make empty promises they don't even try to deliver on.

Making that unskilled worker vote an irrational wildcard come November. And clearly an area where Obama must do better.

 

[Slick5150]

Originally posted by: LTC8K6
She can win the nomination if the delegates decide that she can deliver the presidency and Obama can't. The states that Hillary is winning would tend to support the idea.

It's too early to say Hillary can't win the nomination.

May 6 awaits.

The delegates do not decide who people vote for in the general election. If Obama is still ahead in popular vote and delegates come the convention (and I have to assume he will be) and they still nominate her, you'll lose a lot of people who would have voted Democrat otherwise (some won't vote at all (mainly the younger vote), others will vote McCain, a few will vote 3rd party).

Hillary clinton CAN win the nomination, but she cannot win the general election using a strategy that gets her the nomination.