PA primary thread

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RY62

Senior member
Mar 13, 2005
891
153
106
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Originally posted by: RY62
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Originally posted by: Vic
It will be close and she still won't get out. Hillary's campaign isn't about the good of the country, it's about Hillary.

Well, I think she really believes she IS what's good for the country, no? I feel like you do and express here, but I don't much like myself for having those suspicions when the only way to know for sure, how much self delusion there is really, would be to actually be inside her head. How much is her ambition driven by the assumptions she has the most to contribute and how much does her ambition not care. I don't really know; I just have only opinions, I think.

I think you're right. Both of the Dem candidates believe passionately that they are what's best for the country. We're just as passionate about who we think would be best for the country. We are also passionately against those who oppose our choice, as if the opposition to our choice opposes what is good for the country.

Yes, and there are a number of ways one can go with that. The traditional way, the way that in my opinion is useless, is to demonize the opposition and destroy them, because they are no good.

Another way, the way I think Obama favors, is to look at what both sides have in common and work from there, the desire to do what is best for the nation. I believe that liberals lean in the direction of dissatisfaction with what is wrong with the nation and conservatives are occupied with lot allowing things to get worse. For one change is good and for the other it is bad.

But the truth has nothing to do with change; it's about what kind of change and where. Can we find things both sides want to change, in a common concern for what is best for the nation? Can we begin with the notion of respect that the other side wants what is good too? Can we talk seriously about what is really good and bad as if the cares of both sides were positive?

This is the kind of change I think we need, a change from fighting to working together. It requires that one die to what we've been doing. We have a love for war that may cost us far more than we can imagine.

If there is to be healing and progress within the party and for the nation as a whole, this is the required mindset. It may not be as much fun as bashing the opposition but it's a hell of alot more productive.
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
81
Originally posted by: alchemize
I love the whole Billary propaganda..."I have to win"...it's always been obvious she would win the state. the question is by what margin she wins. Anything less than a 10 point victory, and it's a "loss" for her.

Any win will guarantee her national headlines -- even more so if it's close. The way the media paints the race, I'd bet there are lots of people across the country who have no idea she's so far back. The majority of people in this country don't hang out on P&N hitting F5 every 15 seconds

 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
Originally posted by: mitchel
So where's the poll to see who's winning? This thread fails.

The poll is in the OP. Results show most people here think Hillary will win by +5.

I also think Hillary will win by more than 5%, maybe as much as 10 or 11%. But she ain't dropping out even if she loses.

She'll be over where I live tomorrow on a campaign stop.

Will be interesting to see the actual results to see how the pollsters have done. Can't poll cell phones, only land lines. Few in college students have those.

Fern
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,094
6,608
126
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: alchemize
I love the whole Billary propaganda..."I have to win"...it's always been obvious she would win the state. the question is by what margin she wins. Anything less than a 10 point victory, and it's a "loss" for her.

Any win will guarantee her national headlines -- even more so if it's close. The way the media paints the race, I'd bet there are lots of people across the country who have no idea she's so far back. The majority of people in this country don't hang out on P&N hitting F5 every 15 seconds

What does F5 do?
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,161
7
0
take it for what it's worth:
link
CLINTON INTERNALS SHOW 11-POINT LEAD IN PA
Mon Apr 21 2008 11:10:14 ET

**Exclusive**

Controlled excitement is building inside of Clinton's inner circle as closely guarded internal polling shows the former first lady with an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania!

Clinton is polling near to nearly 2 to 1 over Obama in many regions of the state, a top insider explained to the DRUDGE REPORT.

A strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters has all but secured a Clinton victory Tuesday, with headline-making margins, the campaign believes.

"It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of how much," a senior campaign source said Monday morning.

When pressed if the dramatic internal polling numbers could somehow be flawed in a state as demographically complex as Pennsylvania, and with new voter registration surging to unseen levels, the campaign insider held firm.

"Senator Obama would be wise not to unpack his bags quite yet."

MORE

With less than 24 hours to go until the beginning of the end of primary season voting, Obama has handedly captured Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but has failed to dominate suburban sprawl, the campaign's polling reveals.

An 11-point victory in Pennsylvania for Clinton would expand on margins scored in Ohio.

Clinton will quickly move to feverishly focus on Indiana starting Tuesday night, hoping to somehow convince superdelegates that she not only has superior stamina but has crucial swing state appeal.

Without superdelegate intervention, Clinton still faces impossible math to nomination.
11 points would be huge.
Also if Obama loses everything but the big cities it shows the kind of problems he is going to have in the fall.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
What does F5 do?

Are you a Mac user, Moonie?

Gallup poll shows Obama lead growing

The remaining Democratic primaries are in North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico, and caucuses in Guam.
With the possible exception of Indiana, I highly doubt that Hillary will win any of them. Oregon, I guarantee, will be a double-digit blow-out for Obama.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Well thank god today will be the last day after she gives her concession speech.

Doesn't matter though, not enough delegates vote for Obabam to defeat McCain in November.


 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,808
83
91
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
What does F5 do?

Are you a Mac user, Moonie?

Gallup poll shows Obama lead growing

The remaining Democratic primaries are in North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico, and caucuses in Guam.
With the possible exception of Indiana, I highly doubt that Hillary will win any of them. Oregon, I guarantee, will be a double-digit blow-out for Obama.

I thought all Obama voters were required by law to use macs, listen to mediocre/ironic hipster bands on their ipods, and buy over-priced coffee from starbucks?
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
81
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
What does F5 do?

Are you a Mac user, Moonie?

Gallup poll shows Obama lead growing

The remaining Democratic primaries are in North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico, and caucuses in Guam.
With the possible exception of Indiana, I highly doubt that Hillary will win any of them. Oregon, I guarantee, will be a double-digit blow-out for Obama.

Besides IN, she'll easily win in KY and WV. She will probably win PR (hard to predict) and Guam (not enough to net delegates) too.
 

jonks

Lifer
Feb 7, 2005
13,918
20
81
Originally posted by: Vic
The remaining Democratic primaries are in North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico, and caucuses in Guam.
With the possible exception of Indiana, I highly doubt that Hillary will win any of them. Oregon, I guarantee, will be a double-digit blow-out for Obama.

Well, I dunno. Puerto Rico being hispanic skews towards Hillary and then there's these:

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...4f2e-8dde-3f865c3d7ac5
In a Democratic Primary in Kentucky today, 04/15/08, five weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 62% to 26%.

West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary (3/13/08)
West Virginia: Clinton 55% Obama 27%

Sure those numbers will likely change, but thems some mighty steep climbs.

 

mflacy

Golden Member
Aug 8, 2001
1,910
0
0
Early Pennsylvania exit poll results
By The Associated Press Published: Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Highlights of preliminary exit poll data in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary Tuesday:

PARTY-SWITCHERS

One in 10 voters changed their party registration since the start of the year so they could vote in the hotly contested primary, which was open only to registered Democrats. About half of the party-switchers had been registered Republicans and the rest had been unaffiliated with either party. Another roughly 3 percent were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.

VOTERS' DEMOGRAPHICS ...

As expected, the Pennsylvania Democratic electorate was overwhelmingly white, while a little more than half of voters were women. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. A quarter had household family income of more than $100,000 last year and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.

Three in 10 Pennsylvania Democratic voters were union members or had one in their household. And four in 10 had a gun owner in their household.

... AND THE CANDIDATES' DEMOGRAPHICS

About one in five voters said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in their vote. About as many said that about the candidates' gender.

MAKING UP THEIR MINDS

One in five voters said they decided for whom to vote within the final week of the six-week Pennsylvania campaign. About one in 10 said they made up their mind Tuesday.

ECONOMIC GLOOM

As in earlier primaries, at least half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. About half as many said Iraq was the top issue. Health care trailed in importance.

Pennsylvania Democrats had a sour view of the economy - four in 10 said the country is in a serious recession and at least as many called it a moderate recession. Only about one in 10 said the economy is not in recession.

---

From a partial sample of 1,421 Democratic primary voters conducted in 40 precincts across Pennsylvania
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Breaking CNN Exit Polls From PA:

Obama leads 60:40 In Newly Registered Voters
Obama leads 92:8 In Black Voters
Clinton leads 61:38 With Senior Voters
Clinton leads 55:45 With White Males
 

jonks

Lifer
Feb 7, 2005
13,918
20
81
The media has been canvasing PA for 5 weeks now, so unless the race is within 1-2 points, they will "call" the state for the winner probably 6 seconds after the polls close, like they did in LA.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,161
7
0
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Breaking CNN Exit Polls:

Obama leads 60:40 In Newly Registered Voters
Does that include switchers though?

I would guess that the party switchers go for Hillary.
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
81
Originally posted by: sirjonk
Originally posted by: Vic
The remaining Democratic primaries are in North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico, and caucuses in Guam.
With the possible exception of Indiana, I highly doubt that Hillary will win any of them. Oregon, I guarantee, will be a double-digit blow-out for Obama.

Well, I dunno. Puerto Rico being hispanic skews towards Hillary and then there's these:

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...4f2e-8dde-3f865c3d7ac5
In a Democratic Primary in Kentucky today, 04/15/08, five weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 62% to 26%.

West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary (3/13/08)
West Virginia: Clinton 55% Obama 27%

Sure those numbers will likely change, but thems some mighty steep climbs.

Do you have ethnic Puerto Rican splits? It's tough to guess when PRs might vote differently from the largely Chicano Hispanics who've already voted...
 

mflacy

Golden Member
Aug 8, 2001
1,910
0
0
Headline on Drudge:

EXIT POLL DRAMA 5 PM ET: CLINTON 52, OBAMA 48

Women
Clinton 55%
Obama 44

Men

Clinton 47%
Obama 53
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
81
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Breaking CNN Exit Polls From PA:

Obama leads 60:40 In Newly Registered Voters
Obama leads 92:8 In Black Voters
Clinton leads 61:38 With Senior Voters
Clinton leads 55:45 With White Males

If that holds, you're looking at a 52-48 finish...which is why I don't think it'll hold

Originally posted by: sirjonk
The media has been canvasing PA for 5 weeks now, so unless the race is within 1-2 points, they will "call" the state for the winner probably 6 seconds after the polls close, like they did in LA.

They could have called it a month ago...we're all just waiting to see the delegate count
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
81
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Breaking CNN Exit Polls:

Obama leads 60:40 In Newly Registered Voters
Does that include switchers though?

I would guess that the party switchers go for Hillary.

What are the logical steps that would lead you to that conclusion?
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
What is the use in this thread?

We will know the results in six hours or so. All else is mere mental masturbation.

This thread might have had some speculative value days ago, now its a matter of actual results not yet in yet.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,808
83
91
weird.

59% of democrats say Clinton ran more unfair attacks against Obama.
and 59% of church-going democrats voted for Clinton.

lol... I'd love to have a talk with the overlap between the two.

92% of blacks voted for obama, thank god race isn't an issue according to 79% of voters.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,060
1
0
i think that second statistic is interesting because i normally perceive obama as being the more 'spiritual'/religious of the two.
 

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,913
3
0
If it was a game changer it wouldn't be too close to call at this point. Move along, nothing to see here.
 
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