I just think that ATI noticed the 5800/5900 series fiasco. Sure 90nm process is very difficult to perfect but both AMD and Intel have done it. I think it would be better for ATI to delay their product until it is faster than Nvidia's than to release a card slower than 7800GTX 2-3 months later. If it does end up slower, then they will surely have something in the mid- and low-range that has to be better than Nvidia's. How else will they be competing?
Also the article BFG linked mentions that ATI is having problems with their high-end card. There is no mention that R530 and RV515 are having issues. Perhaps, ATI wants to finalize their high-end part and release all 3 (low, mid and high-end cards) at once. If that were to happen, then it's not like they have lost much ground since Nvidia has no low/mid range cards now.
Given the extended life-cycle of videocard generations, as long as ATI's cards are faster, Nvidia hasnt made a dent in the market since 3% buy 7800GTX cards. The real battle will ensue in the lower and mid-range (i must have said this 1000x)....and Nvidia has none of those cards on the market. X800 is getting very competitive with 6600GT. X800XL is $50 cheaper than 6800GT. X850xt pe is outperforming 6800U. The reason why Nvidia won this round in shipments is because ATi had terrible availability of AGP-based cards. 6800GT>X800Pro. X800XL AGP didnt come for like 8 months and when it did at $50 price premium. X800 was way too late to arrive, when 9800Pro struggled against 6600GT. But if you look now, ATI has a better card in almost every price segment. I am pretty sure if they are spending so much time perfecting their high-end card, they are going for an all-out-kill.
We should all remember the previous round:
"We were skeptical, when the GeForce 6800 Ultra was thrust into the spotlight, that ATI would be able to keep up with their toughest competitor." - Anandtech
"ATi kept quiet last month after NVIDIA launched its very impressive GeForce 6800 Ultra and the NV40 graphics processor that will become the foundation for NVIDIA product lines in the future." - Tomshardware
So ATI didnt have a card ready for 1 month after 6800U/GT release. Nvidia launched June 22nd, and here it's only July 8th and everyone is going insane already. Even with yield issues, if history was to repeat itself, ATI still has a month to come back.
And then:
"....it is safe to say that ATI comes out on top when it comes to DX9 and PS 2.0 performance. With ATI's performance on par in older games and slightly ahead in newer games, the beefy power supply requirement, two slot solution, and sheer heat generated by NV40 may be too much for most people to take the NVIDIA plunge." - anandtech
(notice the skepticism regarding the adoption of NV40 products, which we later learn to be of no issue to consumers) <----- It is much easier to criticize something where flaws are more obvious (but that doesnt mean the product will not be successful). In this case the problems ATI has been having are possibly exemplified (but like NV40, it's again easier to analyze ATI's problems just 2 weeks after G7800GTX release and call this round over, right?)
"ATi drops its bombshell after NVIDIA's more-than-impressive launch last month of its GeForce 6800 Ultra. Thanks to its performance advantage when using anisotropic filtering, the Radeon X800 XT Platinum Edition shows its rivals who's boss in this discipline without noticeably sacrificing image quality." - Toms
However, "In our opinion, the most impressive thing about this card is how little effort ATi needed to reach the performance we saw here. The trouble is, there are also drawbacks to the fact that only little effort had to be put into this design." - toms again
So obviously you cant have it all. IF ATI released a 32 pipe 600mhz card almost close to Nvidia's launch, then Nvidia would be blown out of the water right away (at least now Nvidia fans can scream atop of their lungs until R520 comes). But it's not that easy since they have to implement PS3.0 (requires all new architecture). The good news is that Nvidia can always respond with a faster 7800Ultra and drop prices on 7800GTX by $100. So keys, I dont really understand how you think the closer the 2 cards, the better it is for us (maybe for those who want to feel better that they didnt waste money on the 7800GTX). But I personally want the next card (be it Nvidia or ATI) to be faster (so that next time they spend more time/money on R&D, release more powerful cards that wont be blown out by their competitors). Becuase of 5800/5900 failure, Nvidia had to step up with NV40, and ATI simply coasted with R300 on steroids. Well, now it's time for ATI to step up. And if they do, I dont see how that is bad for the consumer.
Since about 50% of the low-end to low-mid range market will still have AGP-based products by the end of 2005, until Nvidia releases any AGP-based 7x00 cards, i dont see how ATI is doomed. Last time I checked Nvidia doesnt even plan to release any AGP based high-end cards. Well they can kiss good-bye to those "free" % points of the market that ATI will eat up.