Recession Anyone??

[Total Refected Power]

Unemployment

Where there is smoke . . .

Fed will lower rates again in response. I hope it is enough!

 

[Scrapster]

Sure, I'll take a helping of recession with a side of potatoes.

 

[warcleric]

In my current situation a recession would benefit me. So I am all for it.

 

[Spook]

Duh.... We're allready in a recession, they just don't want to admit it...

 

[UnixFreak]

any of us who were old enough to remember the late 80s' know that its not a recession yet. Those of us who are old enough to remember the 30's know we are far from hurtin!!

 

[Cyberian]

<< far from hurtin!! >>



Isn't that VW's slogan?

Seriously - Whose definition are we using for &quot;recession&quot;??

 

[cipher00]

By pretty much any definition, the economy as a whole is not in recession. Certain industries, yes. Manufacturing comes to mind.

Nor will there be a recession. Sharp(er) recovery awaits. Just wait, you'll see.

 

[351Cleveland]

Recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth (shrinkage). We had one quarter at the end of 2000, but the first quarter of 2001 was growth, so by a definition standpoint we will not be able to proclaim recession until at least the end of September. I am not a economics nerd so feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

 

[Static911]

hoping for another rate cut

static911

 

[StormRider]

I'm hoping for another rate cut so I can get a cheaper mortage when it's time for me to buy my first house!

 

[yakawictz]

Another rate cut ??? yippi !!! I'm refinancing soon...I can't wait !!!

 

[LocutusX]

This supposed &quot;tech-recession&quot; is why I still don't have a summer job yet. With my skills I've been able to secure summer student jobs at many computer companies for the past couple of summers but now all of a sudden none of them are taking students for the summer. Which sucks.

 

[Cyberian]

<< Recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth (shrinkage). We had one quarter at the end of 2000, but the first quarter of 2001 was growth, so by a definition standpoint we will not be able to proclaim recession until at least the end of September. I am not a economics nerd so feel free to correct me if I am wrong. >>



No way am I correcting you (or anyone)!
Your definition sounds fine to me, but just what 'statistic' needs to shrink?
GNP,DJIA, housing starts, consumer spending, etc. ??

 

[Russ]

People who put their faith in &quot;definitions&quot;, while ignoring reality, are usually those who suffer the most because they refuse to prepare. They blithely ignore the signs until some &quot;expert&quot; finally says, &quot;okay, we're in a recession&quot;. By then, it's far too late.

It's here, it's been here, and it isn't going away for a while.

Russ, NCNE

 

[Akaz1976]

351Cleveland is correct that 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth constitutes a recession. So according to that defination North America is not in recession. BUT since the economy is coming of RECORD HIGH levels of production and growth and most companies had based the strategies on this record growth continuing for considerable period of time still, therefore even with out actual recession (ie negative growth) just this slow down in economic growth is starting to cause a lot of hurt (people layed off by thousands and businesses going under).

As for will we actually have a recession? well, last quarter's surprise GDP growth was based mostly on increased share of net exports with was due to plummeting imports. On top of that the GDP number is already being revised downwards.

So in my view (and its just my view) we may well see two quarters of negative growth in GDP (ie Recession) before things get better by 1st quarter next year.

Akaz

**EDIT** Stock market typically leads actual economic activity by 6 months to a year. so we may already have hit bottom of stock prices.

 

[Russ]

This is a list of layoffs at major companies since December 1, 2000. Tell me we aren't in a recession.

Motorola 26,000
Nortel 20,000
Lucent 10,000
WorldCom 11,550
Ericsson 9,000
Cisco 8,500
Solectron 8,250
JDS Uniphase 8,000
Phillips 7,000
Corning 5,125
Compaq 5,000
Intel 5,000
Unisys 5,000
Cable &amp; Wireless 4,000
Gateway 3,000
Standard Register 2,400
Agere 2,000
Hewlett-Packard 1,700
Dell Computer 1,700
Alcatel 1,100
Applied Materials 1,000
Alltel 1,000
Computer Sciences 900
Xerox1 800
Nextel Communications 800
Sapient 720
I2 Technologies 610
Texas Instruments 600
Engage 550
Vignette 550
Sony 500
CommScope 500
Digital Broadband Comm. 450
Rhythms NetConnections 450
Nokia 400
Rational Software 400
Comverse Technology 400
ADC Telecomm. 400
Antec 400
Broadvision 325
Juno 325
Level 3 325
Corel 320
Versatel 300
AT&amp;T Broadband 300
Cambridge Tech. Partners 280
Vitts Networks 270
Inktomi 263
International FiberCom 250
Palm Inc. 250
Computer Sciences Corp. 237
General DataComm 200
Perot Systems 200
Oplink Communications 166
Convergent Communications 150
Neon Software 150
Redback Networks 150
Network Commerce 145
Startec Global Comm. 140
VA Linux 130
Calico Commerce 120
Esterline 100
Copper Mountain 100
F5 Networks 100

Montgomery Ward 28,000
J.C. Penney 5,565
Venator 3,000
Sears 2,400
Service Merchandise 1,750
Crown Books 450
Circuit City Stores 300

General Electric 75,000
Honeywell 50,000
DaimlerChrysler 26,000
General Motors 15,000
Delphi Automotive 11,500
Procter &amp; Gamble 9,600
Mitsubishi 9,500
Unilever 8,000
Boeing 8,000
Goodyear 7,200
Sara Lee 7,000
Whirlpool 6,000
DuPont 5,300
3M 5,000
Dow Chemical 4,500
Newell Rubbermaid 3,000
Gillette 2,700
Heinz 1,900
Visteon 1,800
Arvin Meritor 1,500
Hayes Lemmerz Int'l 1,200
Federal-Mogul 1,100
Polaroid 950

J.P. Morgan 5,000
Aetna 5,000
Charles Schwab 3,400
Janus 1,059
Ameritrade 330
Putnam 256
PriceWaterhouseCoopers 400
Prudential Securities 160
Bank of America 100

Disney 4,000
AOL Time Warner 2,400
American Greetings 1,500
PricewaterhouseCoopers 1,000
CNN 400
Quokka Sports 217
New York Times Co. 216
Entertaindom 200
CNet Networks 190
NBCi 150

Amazon.com 1,300
Kozmo 1,100
MarchFirst 1,000
Webvan 885
Ariba 700
EToys 700
ExciteAtHome 630
Critical Path 450
Yahoo 420
Go.com 400
Barnesandnoble.com 350
Pets.com 320
LetsBuyIt.com 200
AltaVista 200
LookSmart 172
MVP.com3 166
Wine.com 160
Jupiter 155
ECal 140
Drugstore.com 125
Loudcloud 122
Netcentives 120
Work.com 113
HomeGrocer.com 100
Netpliance 93

Keane 1,000
KPMG Consulting 550
PacifiCare Health Systems 550
Razorfish 400
Asarco 230
Wonderware 150

This is only the beginning, folks.

Russ, NCNE

 

[351Cleveland]

No doubt that the economy is sick. Not arguing with ya there... I was just providing the text book definition, which is, as you have so subtly pointed out, not worth the paper it is written on when it comes to every day people.

My company has laid off 50... with the decision to ship 100 jobs to Poland also announced in early 2001.

 

[josphstalinator]

we are not in a recession. a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, last quater there was positive growth thus no recession.

russ

just cause companies lay off people doesnt mean we are in a recession. the economy was growing a very rapid pace for a long time, and companies had to hire many workers in anticipation of further growth. but with the economy slowing down these workers were no longer needed. we did have one quarter of negative growth, but not two. we are not in a recession.

 

[Russ]

josphstalinator,

You just keep sticking by that &quot;definition&quot;. Then, as more pink slips roll in, just tell all the recipients, &quot;hey, don't worry, be happy, by definition, there is no recession.&quot;

Russ, NCNE

 

[josphstalinator]

4.5% unemployment rate is very low

 

[josphstalinator]

actually what ill tell them is &quot;what were you thinking????&quot;

if you choose to work for pets.com or letsbuyit.com or wine.com or loudcloud or (the list is endless) you better be expecting your pink slip

 

[Total Refected Power]

4.5% unemployment rate is very low

But for those people recently laid off it is a 100% reduction in income.

 

[GrInNer]

.

 

[StageLeft]

josphstalinator

Its not only .coms that are laying people off. Nortel? Car manufacturers? I agree that working for a .com may not have been the wisest move but increasingly few sectors have real job security now.

 

[Russ]

josphstalinator,

I guess you didn't bother to even look at the list. The dot-bombs are actually only a small part of it, in both number of companies, and number of bodies.

Russ, NCNE