RIM death watch

[3chordcharlie]

This should just about do it.

Hope one of the current leaders decides to make a phone that actually handles communication well.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

All old news.

The downer today is the BB10 delay. Apparently it is a software integration issue. Integrating all the pieces is taking longer than planned. The more I think about it, the less I am shocked. I hope they have their policies and procedures in place and being followed. If not, BB10 might never happen. It's hard to know what exactly the problem is from the outside looking in but this could get ugly.

The only good news is that alot of their end markets don't need smart phones yet. Some don't even have 3G yet.

Another quarter passes though and another quarter of positive free cash flow and a growing cash horde. Plenty of time to turn things around.

 

[Pheran]

Another quarter passes though and another quarter of positive free cash flow and a growing cash horde. Plenty of time to turn things around.

That's hilarious. This company is done. It barely even matters what they actually do now, they've lost so much mindshare that they are irrelevant to everyone's future plans.

 

[theevilsharpie]

The downer today is the BB10 delay. Apparently it is a software integration issue. Integrating all the pieces is taking longer than planned.... It's hard to know what exactly the problem is from the outside looking in...

I think we know exactly what the problem is: software integration is very difficult to perform when the top priority of BB10's software development team is finding another job before they get laid off.

 

[3chordcharlie]

All old news.

The downer today is the BB10 delay. Apparently it is a software integration issue. Integrating all the pieces is taking longer than planned. The more I think about it, the less I am shocked. I hope they have their policies and procedures in place and being followed. If not, BB10 might never happen. It's hard to know what exactly the problem is from the outside looking in but this could get ugly.

The only good news is that alot of their end markets don't need smart phones yet. Some don't even have 3G yet.

Another quarter passes though and another quarter of positive free cash flow and a growing cash horde. Plenty of time to turn things around.

Nope, this slide might as well be a year. The hardware they have spec'd is only going to get older, and if BB10 launches at all, which at this point is in doubt, its going to launch on 'old' hardware.

Nothing RIM makes is going to blow the doors off the market, no matter how good it is.

I hate to say it, but my current BB could be my last reliable, functional phone for a while.

 

[Doppel]

Whenever I talk to people IRL about RIM we're all just wondering when they will go bankrupt. It's not if but when, no confidence in this company anymore. It had its time, it really helped move the world along with phones, but it's a dinosaur and there's no place for it in the future.

 

[Crono]

Whenever I talk to people IRL about RIM we're all just wondering when they will go bankrupt. It's not if but when, no confidence in this company anymore. It had its time, it really helped move the world along with phones, but it's a dinosaur and there's no place for it in the future.

Very few cell phone manufacturers companies can survive on that scale anymore. Apple is as safe as any company can be, Google is stable, but Microsoft's partner Nokia is in danger and I agree that it's just a matter of time before RIM goes under.

What's surprising to me is that they are still clinging to their OS. There just isn't any room for 4 OSes in this market, not unless there is some truly innovative feature that would drive the masses to buy BlackBerry once again. The two things BlackBerry did well were email (which all smartphones handle adequately now) and physical keys (which are irrelevant, but also available on numerous other brands).

I expect Microsoft to survive, but they are learning to be quicker with reinventing their Windows ecosystem, and Windows Phone 8 should at least keep them in the game. The best thing that could happen for RIM right now is for their patent portfolio to be bought up by Microsoft. I don't see anything else they can really offer, and maintaining their independence might their downfall if their new platform fails.

 

[The-Noid]

Another quarter passes though and another quarter of positive free cash flow and a growing cash horde. Plenty of time to turn things around.

Only because of the extreme change in working capital. Ex the huge change in WC which isn't sustainable, FCF is negative.

This is a cash burn quarter, regardless of what net cash does...

Assuming same fundamentals and ability to draw down WC and assuming no deterioration, they have 6 quarters left. Assuming further deterioration, which is at this point almost a given, most likely 4 quarters before bankruptcy.

 

[joutlaw]

I think we know exactly what the problem is: software integration is very difficult to perform when the top priority of BB10's software development team is finding another job before they get laid off.

Sad but true. I imagine morale is not that high over at RIM.

 

[SAWYER]

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/29/idINL2E8HT07G20120629

 

[dr150]

.....CEO Thorsten Heins said the migration over to the new platform “has proven to be more challenging and time consuming than anticipated,” and that the schedule the company had originally laid out for a late 2012 launch “was no longer realistic.”....

....“I will not deliver a product to the market that is not ready to meet the needs of our customers, or provide anything less than an outstanding user experience with the quality I expect a BlackBerry product to have,” he said on the call. “There will be no compromise on this issue.” ...

...“I think it’s DOA,” Canaccord analyst Mike Walkley said of BlackBerry 10, given its now-delayed launch. “It’s too little, too late.” ......“I think they are just too far behind to stick with this integrated strategy,” Sutherland said. “I don’t know how they are going to get out of this.” ....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rim-swings-to-loss-delays-blackberry-10-launch-2012-06-28

...“RIM’s prospects appear to be turning from bad to worse,” wrote Tal Liani of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, who downgraded the stock from a neutral rating to underperform..........

....“With increased competition and a very low probability the market will support RIM’s new mobile computing ecosystem, we believe RIM will need to sell the company,” Canaccord analyst Mike Walkley wrote in a note....

....“We are perplexed why the urgency is not greater,” said UBS analyst Amitabh Passi. “With business atrophying, RIM placing its future on BB10, and in an industry where quarterly delays can be devastating, RIM is back in the unfortunate position of another product void of [more than a year].”.....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rim-shares-drop-as-analysts-cut-outlook-2012-06-29

 

[tommo123]

Sad but true. I imagine morale is not that high over at RIM.

my thoughts head towards who are actually left there? i mean surely if you could get another job elsewhere right now you'd jump ship before being kicked out?

 

[Dari]

When is Pliablemoose returning? He needs to enjoy this along with everyone else.

 

[Deeko]

When is Pliablemoose returning? He needs to enjoy this along with everyone else.

Why would you enjoy the downfall of a large company that will cost thousands of people their jobs? RIM didn't do anything to you. The curious hatred tech geeks have towards companies whose products they don't prefer is nonsensical.

 

[Imp]

When is Pliablemoose returning? He needs to enjoy this along with everyone else.

He got banned.

Why would you enjoy the downfall of a large company that will cost thousands of people their jobs? RIM didn't do anything to you. The curious hatred tech geeks have towards companies whose products they don't prefer is nonsensical.

Meh, I wouldn't take any of this personally and I don't think anyone means anything by it. People lose jobs daily, people die, get fucked over/up in the most horrific ways... Cheering the demise of a company is pretty tame when it's possible to get a new job. Still assholery, but tame in comparison.


So, is anyone ACTUALLY surprised that BB10 got delayed? I mean, seriously? From the company that delayed Playbook numerous times, IIRC. From the company that delayed "Playbook 2.0" (aka. finally updating the software to include features promised in the original) by a year (PB came out April-ish 2011, software February 2012)? Really?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

..

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

..

 

[theevilsharpie]

RIMM is far from bankruptcy.

lulz

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

He got banned.



Meh, I wouldn't take any of this personally and I don't think anyone means anything by it. People lose jobs daily, people die, get fucked over/up in the most horrific ways... Cheering the demise of a company is pretty tame when it's possible to get a new job. Still assholery, but tame in comparison.


So, is anyone ACTUALLY surprised that BB10 got delayed? I mean, seriously? From the company that delayed Playbook numerous times, IIRC. From the company that delayed "Playbook 2.0" (aka. finally updating the software to include features promised in the original) by a year (PB came out April-ish 2011, software February 2012)? Really?

The new CEO steped in. Said he was goign to do a bunch of stuff. He has been executing. This is the first thing that he has said he was going to do that wasn't done. But 90%+ of what he has said he is going to do is being done. As a shareholder, I am happy to see the transparency and honesty.

With software integeration, it's hard to knwo what that means. Is it integrating the OS. is it hte market place integration on a global scale? Is it pre-installed apps that are not ready? Is integration complete but integration testing is failing in a few spots? Welcome to the grey area of investing. If they can't get a compiled OS, I would worry. If it is the app storethat is not ready, I can see delaying the release. That; makes total sense. I think it is actually the likely reason for the delay since developers have working hardware in their hands already.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

What people in the USA fail to recognize:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576557703316562230.html

 

[Hugo Drax]

I won my 1 dollar Gentlemen's bet that BB10 would be delayed.

 

[theevilsharpie]

What people in the USA fail to recognize:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576557703316562230.html

The article isn't dated, but according to Google, it was published a bit less than a year ago. If rising demand in developing markets is supposed to reverse RIM's slide, it hasn't done so yet.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

lulz

Is it that you didn't read the financials or that you don't know how? You shouldn't make a comment on something if you know nothing.

Hi Joe, Hi Bob

 

[BladeVenom]

Why would you enjoy the downfall of a large company that will cost thousands of people their jobs? RIM didn't do anything to you. The curious hatred tech geeks have towards companies whose products they don't prefer is nonsensical.

Some people favor progress. They are happy to see outdated obsolete products disappear, and be replaced with new higher tech products by another company.

Some people also see the justice in it. A poorly run company, not keeping up with the times, and not giving consumers what they want deserve to go out of business.

New jobs will be created by making higher tech products that consumers actually want.

Did you mourn the passing of typewriter companies when PCs came out? Or more recently the demise of CRT manufacturers when they were replaced by LCDs.

 

[Deeko]

Some people favor progress. They are happy to see outdated obsolete products disappear, and be replaced with new higher tech products by another company.

Some people also see the justice in it. A poorly run company, not keeping up with the times, and not giving consumers what they want deserve to go out of business.

New jobs will be created by making higher tech products that consumers actually want.

Did you mourn the passing of typewriter companies when PCs came out? Or more recently the demise of CRT manufacturers when they were replaced by LCDs.

What you fail to see is the inverse relationship to your last paragraph and what people are actually doing. There's a difference between being excited about progress and being gleeful that a company you don't like fails. And lets be frank - it has nothing to do with progress or innovation, and everything to do with the strange personal biases people have - if Apple were to go bankrupt, the legions of Android fanboys would throw parties about it, despite the fact that they were plenty innovative.