RIM death watch

[IHateMyJob2004]

I still don't get what the leadership at RIM think they can do to survive against Apple, Google, and Microsoft when the first BB10 phones won't ship for months and months.

It's simple really. Other markets (not the USA) are called "emerging markets". These are places like India. Some of these "emerging markets" are even dominated by RIMM. So what you have is RIMM makign a device that can compete against Droid and iOS in those markets where no brand loyalty exists.

It will take longer to gain ground in developed countries where adoption rates of smart phones are already high.

And keep in mind that iOS and Droid are based on 5 year old user experiences. RIMM may show people how old those technologies really are.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

So after years of being a loyal BB user (I've had every iteration from the 7100 til the 9900 except for the original Storm), I decided to give in and get an SGS3. Wife switched to an SGS2 a few months back.

I have to say, the device is amazing but as a corporate work tool the BB is better. Better in terms of mass emails, PIM (calendar, tasks, etc) work and management. The email experience in my opinion is drastically better on BB, and much more efficient. Problem is BB just PLAIN OUTRIGHT SUCKS in just about everything else.

If BB10 can deliver some gorgeous screens, and some of the major apps, I think this company will do just fine. Might be a good opportunity to make some $$ with some cheap long term calls...

If you mean the OS by "gorgeous screens", that is a given. The OS itself should be better than iOS or Droid experiences sicne those are antiquated experiences at this point.

Major Apps. RIMM has an internal list of 100 apps they want on BB10. They havn't publicly released it. Right now, the only known app that will be missing is Netflix. They will have Angry Brids though, as an exmaple.

 

[DukeN]

If you mean the OS by "gorgeous screens", that is a given. The OS itself should be better than iOS or Droid experiences sicne those are antiquated experiences at this point.

Major Apps. RIMM has an internal list of 100 apps they want on BB10. They havn't publicly released it. Right now, the only known app that will be missing is Netflix. They will have Angry Brids though, as an exmaple.

I'm sorry but the apps available currently on BB is missing some HUGE players - Netflix, Skype, Pinterest, Instagram, Twitter, Google+, Google Maps, Dropbox, Flipboard, Photoshop Express, Chrome are just some I can remember off the top. Plus all the productivity and utility tools that only exist on Android (Tasker, VMWare, all kinds of free apps).

If RIM can atleast get the major guys on-board, they may have a chance.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm sorry but the apps available currently on BB is missing some HUGE players - Netflix, Skype, Pinterest, Instagram, Twitter, Google+, Google Maps, Dropbox, Flipboard, Photoshop Express, Chrome are just some I can remember off the top. Plus all the productivity and utility tools that only exist on Android (Tasker, VMWare, all kinds of free apps).

If RIM can atleast get the major guys on-board, they may have a chance.

I think you're right about Google apps. I do know that RIMM is working on a map application internally though.

Where you got that BB10 application release list?

Not sure what your point is about Chrome. It's a web browser. BBB10 will have one of those.

 

[Crono]

It's simple really. Other markets (not the USA) are called "emerging markets". These are places like India. Some of these "emerging markets" are even dominated by RIMM. So what you have is RIMM makign a device that can compete against Droid and iOS in those markets where no brand loyalty exists.

It will take longer to gain ground in developed countries where adoption rates of smart phones are already high.

And keep in mind that iOS and Droid are based on 5 year old user experiences. RIMM may show people how old those technologies really are.

I'm aware of emerging markets, my family is from India. Even in emerging markets people are either shopping for standard "dumbphones" or starting to look at cheap Android phones. There might be some strongholds for RIM/BB, but when the burgeoning middle class demands the same kind of phones (namely Apple and Samsung) the rest of world uses as luxury goods, I don't see much of a future for RIM when they are months away from competing again.

And even if iOS and Droid are based on "5 year old user experiences" (which doesn't matter, since they devices are constantly being updated and refreshed) Microsoft's Windows Phone isn't, and it's pushing forward with WP8 in October. RIM cannot compete with their current strategy anywhere unless their pricing is extremely low (and they take a loss) or they secretly developed hardware and software for BB10 that is amazing.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm aware of emerging markets, my family is from India. Even in emerging markets people are either shopping for standard "dumbphones" or starting to look at cheap Android phones. There might be some strongholds for RIM/BB, but when the burgeoning middle class demands the same kind of phones (namely Apple and Samsung) the rest of world uses as luxury goods, I don't see much of a future for RIM when they are months away from competing again.

And even if iOS and Droid are based on "5 year old user experiences" (which doesn't matter, since they devices are constantly being updated and refreshed) Microsoft's Windows Phone isn't, and it's pushing forward with WP8 in October. RIM cannot compete with their current strategy anywhere unless their pricing is extremely low (and they take a loss) or they secretly developed hardware and software for BB10 that is amazing.

You haven't been reading all the articles about the actually BB10 hardware/software demos that are being given out to developers and journalists are you.

software:
1) It is an amazing experience according to articles I have been reading. Slight learning curve for the Flow interface but for people that use their phone for business, alot of time will be saved because you can get to different apps much much faster. All of your "social apps" are just one gesture away from any application. No more close/find/open paradigm. One gesture. Done.

hardware:
1) similar processor as the Samsung Galaxy S3
2) memory is unknown
3) higher resolution screen than iPhone.

Regarding pricing, RIMM isn't just throwing OS 7 in the garbage. OS 7 will serve the low end market till BB10 has a full line up.

personally ....
I have a Droid. It has alot of issues that I hate. Damn thing crashes all the time. I can't switch between applications without reloading them from scratch (I loose state). Sure there are exceptions, music players keep playing. Mail apps just shut down. Angry birds does the same thing. getting a phone call closes any application I have open.

I'm not just going to close my eyes and pretend that BB10 doesn't exist because I have a Droid already. The fact that I have a Droid is the reason I will consider a BB10. After having a smart phone for a year, I know what apps I want (I'm 35) and games are not on the list at all. I actually expect that BB10 will do everything I want. The only unknown for me is what running/cycling applications will be available.

And this does not mean that I will just buy a BB10 either. I'll weigh my options when I have to.

 

[Hugo Drax]

If you mean the OS by "gorgeous screens", that is a given. The OS itself should be better than iOS or Droid experiences sicne those are antiquated experiences at this point.

Major Apps. RIMM has an internal list of 100 apps they want on BB10. They havn't publicly released it. Right now, the only known app that will be missing is Netflix. They will have Angry Brids though, as an exmaple.

IF you are very bullish on the longterm prospects of RIM. Why not load up now at the 6.70s prices now?

Warren Buffet loves it when good companies sell for rock bottom prices. So why not follow his advice and load up to the hilt at this stage if you feel there is a huge discount in the equity price compared to future earning potential.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I am going to exit the conversation for my sanity and others.

Hugo,
I own a sliver of stock. But when a stock could go to either $0 or $30+ always look at stock options. RIMM stock is not the only thing priced for death. The options are also priced in the same manner:
https://www.google.com/finance/option_chain?q=NASDAQ:RIMM&ei=iwJAULCuFaap0AHAWQ

FWIW: I own alot of Jan 2014 call options at a few strikes:
If I am wrong I loose a piece of my portfolio. If i am correct, I contemplate retirement and A BMW 7 series.

I'm in no rush to add more options. When the 2015s appear i will take a look at them though. If the stock hits $4, let me know. Until then i have no interest in adding to my position. RIMM is already priced at what I can only call retarded levels. No debt, $4/share in cash on hand. $6.71 close today. And still generating cash to the tune of $3.50/share in FCF. If you back out cash, RIMM is trading at less than 1x FCF.

RIMM is an example of Cigarette butt investing. This is classic Benjamin Graham stuff. The cigarette-butt theory of investing, so named for its focus on bargain-basement stocks. The cigarette butt reference infers that hte company may be on it's last puff.

EDIT: I think those Jan 2014 calls at the $22 strike will turn $1 into $0 or $40+ a year from now. Not a bad risk/reward if you ask me. If things work out, I think $40 is a worse case scenario. The moon is the limit.

 

[Ichinisan]

Confused by this statement. It is of course still for sale, even with a new LTE model and rumored 10" version in the pipeline.

I'd be curious to know if there was a single Playbook sold in the last few months. Then I'd like to know who bought it.

 

[Ichinisan]

So after years of being a loyal BB user (I've had every iteration from the 7100 til the 9900 except for the original Storm), I decided to give in and get an SGS3. Wife switched to an SGS2 a few months back.

I have to say, the device is amazing but as a corporate work tool the BB is better. Better in terms of mass emails, PIM (calendar, tasks, etc) work and management. The email experience in my opinion is drastically better on BB, and much more efficient. Problem is BB just PLAIN OUTRIGHT SUCKS in just about everything else.

If BB10 can deliver some gorgeous screens, and some of the major apps, I think this company will do just fine. Might be a good opportunity to make some $$ with some cheap long term calls...

Use Exchange protocol and you'll get push email for near instant notification of new messages and also calendar / contact synching.

Even Hotmail and Gmail support Exchange ActiveSync now.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'd be curious to know if there was a single Playbook sold in the last few months. Then I'd like to know who bought it.

Seeing how in Canada it is doing well, perhaps you should stop thinking that the USA is the only market. FWIW: 19% market share in Canada when it comes to tablets. And for those that care about trends, the Playbook is gaining market share in Canada while the iPad is loosing it.

 

[Imp]

Seeing how in Canada it is doing well, perhaps you should stop thinking that the USA is the only market. FWIW: 19% market share in Canada when it comes to tablets. And for those that care about trends, the Playbook is gaining market share in Canada while the iPad is loosing it.

I've seen it on public transit... but I've also seen a shit ton more iPads.

Playbook "doing well" may have something to do with the fact that it's been on sale for $150 a lot lately. They released a 3/4/whatever-G version for the "full" $500+ price in the past few months to Canadian carriers. There's also a "national pride" thing where a lot of people use BBs just because it's made by a Canadian company, so if you're looking for trends, don't waste your time on the market with about 1/8 the population of the US of A and 1/30+ that of India.

Oh ya, and every few weeks (guaranteed every quarterly report) there's a huge story on every major Canadian news channel about RIM going to the shitter and it's "last gasp" options.

 

[DukeN]

Use Exchange protocol and you'll get push email for near instant notification of new messages and also calendar / contact synching.

Even Hotmail and Gmail support Exchange ActiveSync now.

Yep using that and it works fairly well, but the BB email experience is much more efficient IMO. The Email client itself is fast, light, can store more than 30 days and the keyboard shortcuts (f for forward, L for reply all, etc) combined with the touchscreen is right now king for mass emails. Also there are some quirks on Android not quite worked out yet - like the notifications don't go away once emails are read, data retrieval to view additional non-header content is much faster in BB (shockingly). Also, BES is pretty amazing for device management compared to couple of others I've tried out (Zenprise, one other i cant remember right now..)

love..LOVE everything else about the S3 though. Gorgeous camera, lightning speed, every app under the sun..

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I've seen it on public transit... but I've also seen a shit ton more iPads.

Playbook "doing well" may have something to do with the fact that it's been on sale for $150 a lot lately. They released a 3/4/whatever-G version for the "full" $500+ price in the past few months to Canadian carriers. There's also a "national pride" thing where a lot of people use BBs just because it's made by a Canadian company, so if you're looking for trends, don't waste your time on the market with about 1/8 the population of the US of A and 1/30+ that of India.

Oh ya, and every few weeks (guaranteed every quarterly report) there's a huge story on every major Canadian news channel about RIM going to the shitter and it's "last gasp" options.

Why not, everyone here thinks India doesn't exist.

 

[lothar]

Yep using that and it works fairly well, but the BB email experience is much more efficient IMO. The Email client itself is fast, light, can store more than 30 days and the keyboard shortcuts (f for forward, L for reply all, etc) combined with the touchscreen is right now king for mass emails. Also there are some quirks on Android not quite worked out yet - like the notifications don't go away once emails are read, data retrieval to view additional non-header content is much faster in BB (shockingly). Also, BES is pretty amazing for device management compared to couple of others I've tried out (Zenprise, one other i cant remember right now..)

love..LOVE everything else about the S3 though. Gorgeous camera, lightning speed, every app under the sun..

Shens.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

lothar,

I went to use my father-in law's droid. I can not believe how different the user experience is compared to my Droid.

To be frank, I was a bit pissed off that I had to relearn how to do something simple like adding an application shortcut as a tile. That's pretty bad.

 

[lothar]

lothar,

I went to use my father-in law's droid. I can not believe how different the user experience is compared to my Droid.

To be frank, I was a bit pissed off that I had to relearn how to do something simple like adding an application shortcut as a tile. That's pretty bad.

Instead of calling them "Droid", say the name of the phones(both yours and his) so I can compare?
I can't tell if you're comparing a droid phone from 5 years ago, or you're comparing a recent one, or you're comparing Google's "Nexus" devices.

All "droids" are different. It's the User Interface(UI) that sets them apart.
Samsung has their TouchWiz interface, HTC has Sense, Motorola has MotoBlur, Google has AOSP(also known as "stock" Android).
For me: Google AOSP > Samsung TouchWiz > HTC Sense > Motorola's MotoBlur > LG's skin(whatever it's called).

 

[DukeN]

Shens.

You can try this out on your Android device.

I'm using the SGS3 running 4.04 and using ActiveSync with Exch SP2.

If I read an email (or few) from my desktop/notebook, the notifications on my phone remain active for a while. I clear them out after a while anyways (perhaps this part isn't push-friendly).

 

[lothar]

You can try this out on your Android device.

I'm using the SGS3 running 4.04 and using ActiveSync with Exch SP2.

If I read an email (or few) from my desktop/notebook, the notifications on my phone remain active for a while. I clear them out after a while anyways (perhaps this part isn't push-friendly).

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2266440
Myth busted.

 

[DukeN]

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2266440
Myth busted.

Not talking about Gmail.

I'm referring to Exchange emails being read on a PC, but the notifications sticking and the LED blinking on the phone.

On a BB this is near instant. Maybe I'm not waiting long enough on the sync interval but it's definitely not fast like the push based actions on Android are (such as mail notifications).

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Is everyone enjoying what RIMM is doing with Droid app intergration?

It's kinda awesome. They really are working towards making most (if not all) apps that are written for Droid to be easily portable to BB10. Apps that are portable take about 10 minutes to port. This is not a code rewrite. BB10 will run the actual Droid executable natively. The only other requirment is that devs remove references to Android.

So, what will be the best enterprise device and it's security along with a potential selection of 90%+ of the apps on the Android market. All while articles on Android malware are popping up everywhere.

AWESOME!

This reminds me of outsourcing. Such a great money saving idea. Till you realize India is 12 time zones away and the devs there are not as good as you think and there is a language barrier. Companies that outsourced now insourcing. Reminds me how? BYOD (Bring your own device) is hot right now. Can't wait for CIOs have this blow up in their faces.

 

[theevilsharpie]

So even though RIM has been getting their ass handed to them in the developed world, the argument for their continued survival has been growth in the third world. And that has been true.

Until now.

A decade after Research In Motion Ltd. introduced its first smartphone, the tribe of BlackBerry users has stopped growing.

RIM is in the midst of a long-running slump in sales, but despite that, it has still managed to sell enough devices to keep adding to the BlackBerry user base, albeit slowly. In August, 2011, RIM said it had surpassed 70 million BlackBerry subscribers worldwide; the most recent number, as of early June, was 78 million.

But this could be the week that once-phenomenal growth story finally ends. Some analysts believe the total number of BlackBerry users is now declining – or on the verge of declining – as existing customers abandon RIM in greater numbers than new customers sign up.

“This is the first quarter we are expecting zero subscriber growth – a loss in enterprise [customers] offset by a small gain in international consumer subs,” said Kris Thompson of National Bank Financial. “Starting next quarter, we see the sub base in a downward spiral with Blackberry 10 potentially slowing [the losses], but we’re not holding our breath.”

<snip>

 

[BladeVenom]

Soon will begin their decline. Goodbye RIM.

 

[Ichinisan]

This is real. RIM made this.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410179,00.asp

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

theevilsharpe,

RIMM proved analysts wrong yesterday. 80 million subscribers today versus 78 million last quarter.