RIM death watch

[Hugo Drax]

New rumor is that a new Tablet is also being announced on the 30th.

Your long call positions took a major hit. Are you planning on holding till expiration? even if it means 100% loss of capital?

you can still cash in with a profit.

 

[Mermaidman]

I bought 10 shares yesterday. I think they are back on course with BB10. They can recover some and have ability to re-capture market share.

<<< Baller

I hope you don't pay transaction fees. :biggrin:

 

[EPCrew]

Just tested the BB10 briefly. looks pretty nice. UI sort of reminds me of android but more intuitive. allows for multitasking and good corporate integration which is key for me anyway.

 

[irishScott]

Well they're alive for now thanks to BB10. We'll see how long that lasts.

This. I doubt they'll rise to Android/iPhone levels, but they seem to have stabilized the sinking ship for now; and they've got more of a foothold in the market than Microsoft ever had.

Honestly I think BB10 and Ubuntu Phone are the two most promising upcoming entries to add a little competition to the smartphone space.

 

[Jodell88]

This. I doubt they'll rise to Android/iPhone levels, but they seem to have stabilized the sinking ship for now; and they've got more of a foothold in the market than Microsoft ever had.

Honestly I think BB10 and Ubuntu Phone are the two most promising upcoming entries to add a little competition to the smartphone space.

Don't forget the Firefox mobile OS.

 

[irishScott]

Don't forget the Firefox mobile OS.

Yeah I hope it does well too, I just don't really see the popular appeal. Most people won't care about the openness, as Android and iOS app stores are ridiculously saturated at this point.

BB10 has its remaining corporate connections and infrastructure. Ubuntu is visually appealing and can act as a Desktop when docked, which I can see appealing to a lot of people who only want a basic computer. Firefox OS is pretty run of the mill... but it's open!

As I said, hope it does well, but they're taking a very top-down approach to it I don't have much confidence in.

 

[Imp]

Stock's down 10%-ish today. I'm down like $200 by now. Thank goodness I only put $1k in.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

Stock's down 10%-ish today. I'm down like $200 by now. Thank goodness I only put $1k in.

when did you put in?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Your long call positions took a major hit. Are you planning on holding till expiration? even if it means 100% loss of capital?

you can still cash in with a profit.

Hugo,
No, holding. India is getting the Z10 in 2-3 weeks. That is what my thesis is mostly based on. India's smartphone market is immature and there is no established brand loyalty yet.

USA is just where I hope it makes a rebound.

Everything went today as expected. The only unfortunate news is the USA relase date. And when Thorsetn said the release date is when the stock tanked. Again, US investor that think the USA is all that matters in a world population of 7 billion (USA has about 300 million).

Canadian vendors are releasing some info. Over half of all pre-orders are people leaving iOS and Android. It will be interesting to see how this plays out longer term. Admitadly, it is premature to say anything seeing how those that really want it will get it immediately.

On another 10% down day on Thursday, I'm actually thinking of adding to my position. I didn't think I'd get another chance.

REMEMBER:
" ... the stock owner should not be too concerned with erratic fluctuations in stock prices, since in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine" - Ben Graham

i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price

 

[Hugo Drax]

Hugo,
No, holding. India is getting the Z10 in 2-3 weeks. That is what my thesis is mostly based on. India's smartphone market is immature and there is no established brand loyalty yet.

USA is just where I hope it makes a rebound.

Everything went today as expected. The only unfortunate news is the USA relase date. And when Thorsetn said the release date is when the stock tanked. Again, US investor that think the USA is all that matters in a world population of 7 billion (USA has about 300 million).

Canadian vendors are releasing some info. Over half of all pre-orders are people leaving iOS and Android. It will be interesting to see how this plays out longer term. Admitadly, it is premature to say anything seeing how those that really want it will get it immediately.

On another 10% down day on Thursday, I'm actually thinking of adding to my position. I didn't think I'd get another chance.

REMEMBER:
" ... the stock owner should not be too concerned with erratic fluctuations in stock prices, since in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine" - Ben Graham

i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price

So in your thesis, you are okay with losing your entire investment? You do not have any kind of exit plan other than to wait for expiration and either you make money or 100% loss correct?

You plan an going long even more on those calls??

 

[Crono]

Early reviews seem to indicate that BB10 is good and the phones are hardware competitive. I like the minimalist design of the Z10 a lot, and it seems that it would be comfortable to hold and use.

I think it's enough to keep Blackberry in the game for a while, but Flow and the BB keyboards aren't big enough draws. They could keep a significant portion of the enterprise users they still have left, but the new UI isn't going to sway Apple users and Android users. BB10 is more of a stopgap at this point than anything else.

Staying alive is all Blackberry needs to do right now, but it's disappointing that there aren't more compelling reasons to switch. In a month I will be getting a new phone, and if the Z10 is at least stable (my previous full touchscreen BB Storm keeps haunting my smartphone nightmares) there's a 50% chance I get one. Otherwise I'll likely stick with Windows Phone and probably get a HTC 8X. Windows Phone wasn't a big hit at launch, either, but Zune, Office, Skydrive and Xbox Live were appealing services/features. And if I don't see a reason to switch - and I'm an early adopter and as ecosystem-agnostic as anyone else - I can't see a significant number of smartphone users even considering it.

I know all the members here with a personal stake (read: stockholders) will wax eloquently about BB10 and the new phones, and I do want to be positive about Blackberry's future, but it seems like the next generation will the one to make or break Blackberry. I'm not that excited about what I've heard and seen so far. I do have to give RIM Blackberry for sticking with their plan, though, at least they've showed up even if it's a bit late.

 

[Imp]

when did you put in?

I just checked, I'm 19.26% down right now. My spreadsheet shows settlement date of January 24, so that'd be the 21st -- right about when it peaked. Oh well.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

So in your thesis, you are okay with losing your entire investment? You do not have any kind of exit plan other than to wait for expiration and either you make money or 100% loss correct?

You plan an going long even more on those calls??

Straight answers:
1) Yes, I am okay with loosing my entire investment.
2) My exit plan is to sell a small portion of my RIMM holdings when RIMM is in hte low $20s. I plan on selling everything in December of this year and reassess for potential reinvestment in early January. Unless the stock does something crazy like hit $300/share, that is my plan.
3) yes, I plan on buying more calls if RIMM drops to about $10/share.

MISC:
Researching RIMM in an effort to understand why Prem Watsa owns 10% of RIMM and has 21% of his stock portfolio in RIMM is a good path. Reading articles is not research. Dismissing RIMM based on bias is not research. Confirming one's bias by reading articles that confirm your bias is not research. It becomes obvious why Prem owns so much RIMM stock if one reads what little he has said publicly and using that as a jumping off point. I did the work and RIMM is one of the easiest investment decisions I have ever made. I sleep well at night. HINT: Prem Watsa was born in India.

FWIW: Everyone that thinks negatively about RIMM as an investment can provide no independent thought regarding their bearish sentiment. These people typically are good at rehashing what articles have said. I have yet to find a single person that is bearish on RIMM that can provide rational reasoning as to why iBB10 will fail in India. Strangely, no articles in this USA discuss this. But in a herd of Lemmings, being like everyone else is easy and all to common. The ol' herd mentality at work. I will consider selling RIMM when someone can provide a well thought out argument as to why RIMM will fail in India. And every time I consider the world markets, the more I know I am correct.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Man, people in line for iPhones are insane!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Wait, that's the line for a BB10 in the UK.

As an investor, I am not that worried.

 

[CraigRT]

I am pretty hopeful for the new product. I thought it looked good in the review, the multi tasking aspect owns Android for sure and that is my biggest gripe with my current Ice Cream Sandwich fone.

 

[Imp]

Down another 5% today... "Freak out" over US launch date.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

I just checked, I'm 19.26% down right now. My spreadsheet shows settlement date of January 24, so that'd be the 21st -- right about when it peaked. Oh well.

Well you invest for the long term not the quick win right?

 

[Imp]

Well you invest for the long term not the quick win right?

For the first time ever, the answer is "yes".

 

[IceBergSLiM]

For the first time ever, the answer is "yes".

Then I think you will come out ahead.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

Tablets might be good if they push them in the corp environment where they aleady have a strong foothold in mobile secure email. I don't know if the margins are good enough to continue competing in the retail market though.

The problem is Windows 8 is a better fit for a corporate enviroment since it can run all of their existing apps and be managed like any other pc.

Not to mention that the Playbook was a dismal failure and back then the tablet market was much less saturated than it is now.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

The problem is Windows 8 is a better fit for a corporate enviroment since it can run all of their existing apps and be managed like any other pc.

Not to mention that the Playbook was a dismal failure and back then the tablet market was much less saturated than it is now.

Thats true as well. I'm just not sure how any one brand can maintain a competitive advantage for any amount of time in the tablet space right now. Maybe they should sit it out or license the OS until their is a better opportunity.

 

[Rudee]

After the buzz of the new Blackberry wears of - which it will - people will go right back to forgetting about them.

 

[theevilsharpie]

I have yet to find a single person that is bearish on RIMM that can provide rational reasoning as to why iBB10 will fail in India.

Blackberry is competing in the mainstream market against ZTE, Huawei, and other high-volume low-margin juggernauts, neither of which have to bear the expense of maintaining an entire OS. Apple completely owns the high-end market. Microsoft is desperately trying to penetrate any market that they can, and has a gazillion dollars to throw at their efforts.

Blackberry doesn't have the broad selection of Android, the brand recognition of iPhone, or the deep pockets of MS. I have no idea why you think that Blackberry will be suddenly be successful in India, when they are foundering everywhere else.

 

[theevilsharpie]

After the buzz of the new Blackberry wears of - which it will - people will go right back to forgetting about them.

This.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Straight answers:
1) Yes, I am okay with loosing my entire investment.
2) My exit plan is to sell a small portion of my RIMM holdings when RIMM is in hte low $20s. I plan on selling everything in December of this year and reassess for potential reinvestment in early January. Unless the stock does something crazy like hit $300/share, that is my plan.
3) yes, I plan on buying more calls if RIMM drops to about $10/share.

MISC:
Researching RIMM in an effort to understand why Prem Watsa owns 10% of RIMM and has 21% of his stock portfolio in RIMM is a good path. Reading articles is not research. Dismissing RIMM based on bias is not research. Confirming one's bias by reading articles that confirm your bias is not research. It becomes obvious why Prem owns so much RIMM stock if one reads what little he has said publicly and using that as a jumping off point. I did the work and RIMM is one of the easiest investment decisions I have ever made. I sleep well at night. HINT: Prem Watsa was born in India.

FWIW: Everyone that thinks negatively about RIMM as an investment can provide no independent thought regarding their bearish sentiment. These people typically are good at rehashing what articles have said. I have yet to find a single person that is bearish on RIMM that can provide rational reasoning as to why iBB10 will fail in India. Strangely, no articles in this USA discuss this. But in a herd of Lemmings, being like everyone else is easy and all to common. The ol' herd mentality at work. I will consider selling RIMM when someone can provide a well thought out argument as to why RIMM will fail in India. And every time I consider the world markets, the more I know I am correct.

How familiar are you with the Greeks in regards to how options are priced and how they behave in the markets compared to a pure equity position?