RIM death watch

[preslove]

I nominate IHateMyJob2004 for ownage of the DECADE, lol. He's going to have to keep his day job a little longer...

 

[Imp]

I nominate IHateMyJob2004 for ownage of the DECADE, lol. He's going to have to keep his day job a little longer...

Na, just a reminder that you should do a double-take when an "analyst" tells you what he/she thinks.

 

[rockyct]

Sad to see an iconic player in the mobile market go down in flames, but it's about time somebody took them behind the barn and put them out of their misery. That was an overly long and drawn out death flailing.

Next question is, will the same thing happen in a year or two to Windows Phone? If MS fumbles the Nokia handoff they are sunk too.

Then it's down to basically Samsung vs. Apple. The only other players in the mobile market actually making money.

Windows Phone may as combine with WinRT into one mobile ARM platform, but Microsoft will be making a phone OS for years. The switch from WP7 to WP8 was actually the first major step towards this as now WP8 is running on the NT kernel. The APIs are merging together so that apps can share code between metro apps and WP8.

Microsoft plays the long game and can absorb massive losses while the business products rack up even bigger profits. It knows it cannot depend on the Windows desktop forever so it will not give up on tablets/phones easily. Take a look at the Surface. They wrote off $1 billion during the price cut a couple of months ago and what do they do, they announce the Surface 2 at only $50 less ($449) than the original was launched at. It is a much nicer tablet now though with some much needed changes (1080p, Tegra 4 chip, 12 hour battery) but it's not fundamentally different or cheaper.

 

[Imp]

BB closed at CAD$ 8.78 today. Guess no one thinks anyone will pay more?

 

[Narse]

Sad to see an iconic player in the mobile market go down in flames, but it's about time somebody took them behind the barn and put them out of their misery. That was an overly long and drawn out death flailing.

Next question is, will the same thing happen in a year or two to Windows Phone? If MS fumbles the Nokia handoff they are sunk too.

Then it's down to basically Samsung vs. Apple. The only other players in the mobile market actually making money.

Windows Phone is selling very well overseas. They will not be going the way of BB anytime very soon. Also we just upgraded our servers with support for WP8 and Windows 8 and it can do some pretty cool stuff. I personally run WP now and I am very happy with it.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Pliablemoose is laughing his ass off at IHMJ.

UPDATE: Pliablemoose is STILL laughing his ass off at IHMJ

 

[foghorn67]

UPDATE: Pliablemoose is STILL laughing his ass off at IHMJ

:thumbsup::thumbsdown::thumbsup:

 

[jpiniero]

BB closed at CAD$ 8.78 today. Guess no one thinks anyone will pay more?

If anything that says they are unconvinced the deal will go through.

 

[silverpig]

This post from last October is just one of the many, many beautiful examples of head in the sand.

Now that BB is well and truly finished it is a great time to go back to around post 700 and read some of the posts by the blind followers of BB. And why should this be rubbed in? Because without contrition we do not learn. We must confront our past failings to become better people. It is no great surprise that Canadians seemed less able to see it as the moribund company it was, for it was a Canadian tech darling for so long.

They are NOT well and truly finished.

Fairfax is headed by Prem Watsa. He is known as the Canadian Warren Buffett and is not a dumb investor. He was formerly on the board of BB. he wants to take the company private to save it and re-invigorate it out of the public eye. Reading just a little bit past the title of the article and your own perceptions would have given you that story. I think Prem is smarter than you when it comes to investing and BlackBerry, so I'll take his putting $4.7B behind this bid (with some big banks supporting him) as a strong signal.

This is the single best outcome possible for BlackBerry.

The company still has a lot of things going for it, unfortunately the current CEO and management team is NOT one of them.

 

[Joe1987]

They are NOT well and truly finished.

Fairfax is headed by Prem Watsa. He is known as the Canadian Warren Buffett and is not a dumb investor. He was formerly on the board of BB. he wants to take the company private to save it and re-invigorate it out of the public eye. Reading just a little bit past the title of the article and your own perceptions would have given you that story. I think Prem is smarter than you when it comes to investing and BlackBerry, so I'll take his putting $4.7B behind this bid (with some big banks supporting him) as a strong signal.

This is the single best outcome possible for BlackBerry.

The company still has a lot of things going for it, unfortunately the current CEO and management team is NOT one of them.

Prem's offer is far from ideal, and is essentially being viewed as a way to put an artificial floor on the stock price.

1.) Financing isn't arranged, at all

2.) BB still has 6 weeks to find another buyer (that's unusual)

3.) Prem already holds 10% of BB, so by putting a "floor" under the stock price, he benefits significantly.

I don't think it will go through, it's financial suicide.

 

[silverpig]

Prem's offer is far from ideal, and is essentially being viewed as a way to put an artificial floor on the stock price.

1.) Financing isn't arranged, at all

2.) BB still has 6 weeks to find another buyer (that's unusual)

3.) Prem already holds 10% of BB, so by putting a "floor" under the stock price, he benefits significantly.

I don't think it will go through, it's financial suicide.

I heard he got BMO and another bank to supply debt financing.

They have $2.6B in cash and nortel's patents (paid $770M in 2011), which means they are only putting out $1-1.5B for the rest of the company. That ain't half bad.

At the end of the day, BB will still be around, and will still sell something. I don't know what it will be though, but Prem probably won't chop up and liquidate it.

 

[rockyct]

I heard he got BMO and another bank to supply debt financing.

They have $2.6B in cash and nortel's patents (paid $770M in 2011), which means they are only putting out $1-1.5B for the rest of the company. That ain't half bad.

At the end of the day, BB will still be around, and will still sell something. I don't know what it will be though, but Prem probably won't chop up and liquidate it.

I could see them trying to be some government or business company, but they are basically done in the consumer market.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I heard he got BMO and another bank to supply debt financing.

They have $2.6B in cash and nortel's patents (paid $770M in 2011), which means they are only putting out $1-1.5B for the rest of the company. That ain't half bad.

At the end of the day, BB will still be around, and will still sell something. I don't know what it will be though, but Prem probably won't chop up and liquidate it.

Fairfax has already made statements. They said they do not intend to chop up the company.

 

[Doppel]

They are NOT well and truly finished.

Fairfax is headed by Prem Watsa. He is known as the Canadian Warren Buffett and is not a dumb investor. He was formerly on the board of BB. he wants to take the company private to save it and re-invigorate it out of the public eye. Reading just a little bit past the title of the article and your own perceptions would have given you that story. I think Prem is smarter than you when it comes to investing and BlackBerry, so I'll take his putting $4.7B behind this bid (with some big banks supporting him) as a strong signal.

This is the single best outcome possible for BlackBerry.

The company still has a lot of things going for it, unfortunately the current CEO and management team is NOT one of them.

 

[jpiniero]

Fairfax has already made statements. They said they do not intend to chop up the company.

What are they going to do then? They could be just saying that just to get Canadian approval.

One thing they could try would be doing Android phones+tablets, but I think that would be a futile effort. Not sure if a keyboard Android device would sell now.

 

[Imp]

They are NOT well and truly finished.

Fairfax is headed by Prem Watsa. He is known as the Canadian Warren Buffett and is not a dumb investor.

I hate this being repeated over and over again, "Prem Watsa is the Canadian Warren Buffett", in support of RIM/BB. All because he's a value investor?

Warren's got 20 years on Prem and 20-30 times the net worth. But I'm sure even Warren's got a few duds in his portfolio.

 

[Imp]

blurb

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

What are they going to do then? They could be just saying that just to get Canadian approval.

One thing they could try would be doing Android phones+tablets, but I think that would be a futile effort. Not sure if a keyboard Android device would sell now.

What they should do.

Blackbery is not a dead company. I don't know why people continue to say it. I however think their days are numbered if they exit the consumer market which they are. It's a dumb move. Anyway, they'll keep going with QNX. They will focus on secure enterprise communications. Things like financial related corporations and governments. People continue to look at Android and iOS from the consumer market. That's a market. Not the only market.

Anyway, Microsoft is probably going to be #1/2 with Google in 5 years. I think Apple is going to become #3 by then. Thing is, I think MSFT has enough enterprise penetration with their portfolio of products to basically take over the only major market BBRY has left. Enterprise MDM/secure communications.

Having said that, I think MSFT is a possible acquirer of BBRY. If anyone should consider it, it is them. For hte next 6 weeks though, only God know what will happen.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I hate this being repeated over and over again, "Prem Watsa is the Canadian Warren Buffett", in support of RIM/BB. All because he's a value investor?

Warren's got 20 years on Prem and 20-30 times the net worth. But I'm sure even Warren's got a few duds in his portfolio.

Most from his cigar Butt investing days, a few.

And most forget that Berkshire Hathaway itself was a "dud".

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

What are they going to do then? They could be just saying that just to get Canadian approval.

One thing they could try would be doing Android phones+tablets, but I think that would be a futile effort. Not sure if a keyboard Android device would sell now.

I had the same thought. If they could provide an Android based solution, consumers might like it. And the thing is, they could make custom Android software for secure communications that is "the best" and dominate. Truth is, I think they should have BB10 for those that require THE best at a price premium while Android could be a lower costsolution where good enough is sufficient.

But BBRY made a good decision at the time. They thought about Android. Problem is that on a world market, you'd just be another Android hardware producer in a sea of hundreds. There is no way to differentiate ones self in that market. It made BB10 their only real option.

 

[lothar]

Prem's offer is far from ideal, and is essentially being viewed as a way to put an artificial floor on the stock price.

1.) Financing isn't arranged, at all

2.) BB still has 6 weeks to find another buyer (that's unusual)

3.) Prem already holds 10% of BB, so by putting a "floor" under the stock price, he benefits significantly.

I don't think it will go through, it's financial suicide.

1.) True.
2.) BB has 6 weeks to find another buyer, and Fairfax Financial still has the opportunity to outbid that potential buyer if it wants. If BlackBerry bows out or accepts another offer, they will have to pay $157 million in breakup fee. $157 million is not "chump" change.
3.) Prem Watsa benefits(and so does his shareholders AKA: me). I don't see how "current" BlackBerry shareholders like "IHateMyJob" and "silverpig"(not sure if he owns BlackBerry stock or options) benefits in this cheap $9 deal though. As for me, I'm laughing all the way to the bank in this deal since I'm a shareholder of FFH and he's buying the company for less than it's tangible book value. Pennies on the dollar.

Not sure what you mean buy your last statement...Are you saying it's financial suicide for Fairfax Financial or for BlackBerry?
Based on what I've analyzed, this deal is cheap for him with little to no risk.
BlackBerry has $5/share in cash and he's paying $9/share for the entire company. Basically, he's paying $4/share for the entire company and it's patents.

The problem BlackBerry shareholders have to answer is "Do you think your company is worth $9/share or more?"
..."or less?"

 

[lothar]

Fairfax has already made statements. They said they do not intend to chop up the company.

If true, then this increases risk. Nothing(including breaking the company off or spinning off some of it's entities) should be left off the table.
It's my hope that they DO break BlackBerry up.
I doubt the company will be able to turn around if they choose to keep the entire whole part as Fairfax claims they want to do.

In a breakup scenario, I see BlackBerry as being worth anywhere from $13-16 per share.
BlackBerry has $5/share in cash and he's paying $9/share for it. Basically, he's paying $4/share for the entire company and it's patents.

1.) Spin off BBM and IPO it later. (Hey, if people are stupid enough to pay billions for companies like Pandora, Groupon, and Zynga; why not BBM? :twisted
2.) Get out of the consumer market. There's no hope for them in that market and they should have done this 2 years ago.
3.) Sell off patents to Google, Microsoft, Apple, or Amazon.
4.) Go multi-platform in providing services for enterprise, security, etc...

 

[lothar]

I hate this being repeated over and over again, "Prem Watsa is the Canadian Warren Buffett", in support of RIM/BB. All because he's a value investor?

Warren's got 20 years on Prem and 20-30 times the net worth. But I'm sure even Warren's got a few duds in his portfolio.

Not sure if serious...Compare the annual compounded annual book value/share of Berkshire Hathaway to Fairfax Financial and get back to me.

Warren is big and popular because he started out bigger than many others.
A person that turns $100 into $1,000 in 20 years or a person that turns $15,000 to $100,000 who is the better investor? Or do you just automatically assume that the last person increased his wealth by $85k so he's the winner since the other person only earned $900?

There are lots of companies out there that nearly match or even beat Buffett in annual compounded book value/share growth.
Leucaida National, Fairfax Financial, Markel Corp, Brookfield Asset Management, Loews Corp, and many other examples.
People only know of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway because he's one of the biggest.

I should also add that I got my current idea to invest in JNJ and KFT from both Prem Watsa and Buffett 5 years ago...Look where they are now. :wub:

There are only a few investors I pay any attention to on this planet. They are:
a.) Ian Cumming & Joe Steinberg of Leucaida National(now known as Jeffries Group)
b.) Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Funds.
c.) Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway.
d.) Prem Watsa of Fairfax Financial.
e.) Seth Klarman of Baupost Group.

 

[jumpncrash]

What are they going to do then? They could be just saying that just to get Canadian approval.

One thing they could try would be doing Android phones+tablets, but I think that would be a futile effort. Not sure if a keyboard Android device would sell now.

you bet your ass it would, I"m holding onto mine until I can get another one

 

[silverpig]

I could see them trying to be some government or business company, but they are basically done in the consumer market.

Consumer is the only way to go. Lack of a real consumer option is what has killed them.