RIM death watch

[Ns1]

OK, so what does BB10 have that Apple and Android don't that are going to make people go back to a platform they dismissed years ago?

To make matters worse, many are embedded into apple/android ecosystems, meaning BB would have to do something extraordinary to make costs > benefits.

 

[Doppel]

Sounds you haven't read much about it and don't know what you are talking about. RIM has boatloads of cash and all the right pieces to turn it around. All the developer buzz about BB10 has been very positive.

Bolded for inadvertently criticizing yourself.

I don't even need to argue you as this does it for me:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Yes, they made bad phones. They paid the price for it. Why is everyone cheering their death?

Simply at my company Blackberry was the only phone they'd give us for a while. I was happy knowing that as RIM lost marketshare and became a laughing stock that they'd open up other phones, so I was happy to see it die.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Most companies (I'd say 90%) don't get it. RIMM gets it.

RIMM CEO Thains said in an interview:
"I have duties as the CEO of the company to the shareholders. I’m not working with my own money. It is the shareholders’ money."

When a person says this as an investor it is like gold.

 

[BladeVenom]

Most companies (I'd say 90%) don't get it. RIMM gets it.

RIMM CEO Thains said in an interview:
"I have duties as the CEO of the company to the shareholders. I’m not working with my own money. It is the shareholders’ money."

When a person says this as an investor it is like gold.

To me that says, he's unwilling to take risks and has no vision for the future. All he's concerned with is next quarter's profits.

 

[silverpig]

OK, so what does BB10 have that Apple and Android don't that is going to make people go back to a platform they dismissed years ago?

1. Security
2. Entrenched user base (okay, so Apple and Android have their fans too)
3. BBM

Bolded for inadvertently criticizing yourself.

I don't even need to argue you as this does it for me:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Simply at my company Blackberry was the only phone they'd give us for a while. I was happy knowing that as RIM lost marketshare and became a laughing stock that they'd open up other phones, so I was happy to see it die.

What are you talking about? You admitted you hadn't read anything about the new RIM devices, yet still are predicting their doom. I said you didn't know what you are talking about, and you post a stock chart? How did I criticize myself?

RIM has cash. Check their balance sheet if you don't believe me.

RIM has made several moves to get things in order:
1. They bought a swedish UI design firm
2. They bought an awesome OS (QNX)
3. They are doing a full re-org to cut costs and become more efficient
4. They are using top of the line hardware in their new phones
5. They are actively courting developers and have very attractive programs for them

Hardware, OS, developers, UI, efficient operations. All of the online reviews of the developer previews of their hardware, OS, and dev tools have been very positive. They aren't rushing things out the door, which means they are making long-term planning decisions. These are all the right things to do, and they have the cash to sit back and do it.

When they do come out with their new platform, they will be able to launch into an entrenched audience and a loyal fan base while trying to win new customers.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

To me that says, he's unwilling to take risks and has no vision for the future. All he's concerned with is next quarter's profits.

*Smacks head in wall*

No.

 

[SamQuint]

I will miss BB. I am still on a BB 9700 from T-Mobile.

My company allows us to use iPhone and Android phones. However for security reasons we are forced to use the "Good for Enterprise" app for mail delivery on them. That app pretty much takes all the fun out of the iPhone or Android phones. It also is pretty unreliable as far as delivery goes. Sometimes mail comes instantly other times your mail gets delayed for several minutes. My BB always gets me my mail right away.

I will also miss the battery life. I can go a couple of days with real use without charging. I also leave my phone running all day with wireless on. None of my friends with iPhones seem to last a full day without constantly tweeking their settings, or turning things off and on.

I do hate the web browsing and lack of useful apps.

I have little hope that the BB10 will be a game changer. Some of the features look promising.

I was given a Windows 7 phone and actually liked the way it worked. It is a shame it comes from Microsoft. I think if someone else had released that OS it would have won more fans. I just think all the hipsters dismiss it because the iCult believes Apple is cool and Microsoft is evil.:whiste:

 

[theevilsharpie]

1. Security
2. Entrenched user base (okay, so Apple and Android have their fans too)
3. BBM

1. Whatever advantage RIM may have in security is countered by the fact that Blackberries rely on RIM's messaging infrastructure to function, and that infrastructure has failed several times over the past year.
2. RIM's "entrenched" user base is made up primarily of corporations that require their employees to carry Blackberries. These same corporations are slowly moving away from Blackberry, and giving their employees more freedom on what phones they use. For every day that goes by without a modern smartphone platform, more of that "entrenched" userbase escapes. Permanently.
3. WhatsApp

What are you talking about? You admitted you hadn't read anything about the new RIM devices, yet still are predicting their doom. I said you didn't know what you are talking about, and you post a stock chart? How did I criticize myself?

RIM has cash. Check their balance sheet if you don't believe me.

RIM has made several moves to get things in order:
1. They bought a swedish UI design firm
2. They bought an awesome OS (QNX)
3. They are doing a full re-org to cut costs and become more efficient
4. They are using top of the line hardware in their new phones
5. They are actively courting developers and have very attractive programs for them

If you don't understand why people think RIM is doomed, consider the following points:

1. RIM is losing money. If you don't believe me, check their Income Statement (or whatever Canadian companies call it).
2. RIM is losing overall marketshare
3. RIM is losing customers in high-margin markets
4. RIM is losing developers
5. RIM is losing support with US carriers
6. Did I mention that RIM is losing money?

RIM fans continue to bandy about this "RIM has cash" talking point, but that can only carry them until BB10 launches. RIM has been claiming that BB10 will save the company, and when that doesn't happen (which is a very strong possibility), it'll be curtains for RIM as we know them today. It doesn't matter how much cash they have; investors are not going to allow an unprofitable venture to continue.

When they do come out with their new platform, they will be able to launch into an entrenched audience and a loyal fan base while trying to win new customers.

LOL

 

[Ns1]

1. Security
2. Entrenched user base (okay, so Apple and Android have their fans too)
3. BBM

so basically nothing.



I see lots of their "entrenched user base" switching to iOS and Android on FB

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

evil,

1) RIMM's cash horde grew
2) RIMM is FCF positive

Not sure how supoprt with US carriers is an issue. Not sure if all is accurate but most are excited over BB10.

"When they do come out with their new platform, they will be able to launch into an entrenched audience and a loyal fan base while trying to win new customers."

Actually, that is true. Not sure why the LOL. Their focus is India and countries where BB is still successful. If there is not a worldwide release, they will not be releasing BB10 in the USA first. Where they have entrechnment is where they will start.

Looosing market share while gaining subscribers. Yup.

Don't forget that BB10 will have it's own advertising API. So they will be Google like in that many apps will leverage the advertising engine to provide revenues to the parent (RIMM, Google, etc).

And BB10 could be a failure. That is fine as an investor. Otherwise I don't care about RIMM one way or another. I think they have a 50/50 shot at making BB10 work.

 

[3chordcharlie]

1. Whatever advantage RIM may have in security is countered by the fact that Blackberries rely on RIM's messaging infrastructure to function, and that infrastructure has failed several times over the past year.

This is a sort f equivalence argument, and not a very good one. If security is important, you would rather no one have access (including yourself , temporarily) than 'others' have access.

2. RIM's "entrenched" user base is made up primarily of corporations that require their employees to carry Blackberries. These same corporations are slowly moving away from Blackberry, and giving their employees more freedom on what phones they use. For every day that goes by without a modern smartphone platform, more of that "entrenched" userbase escapes. Permanently.

Oh yes, permanently for 18-24 months. Less if they are real 'techie' types. Losing users is damaging, and it may be harder to get them back than to get 'new' ones, but if the product is compelling, the users will return.

3. WhatsApp

I use whatsapp all the time. It's a great app. Fantastic.

It's also much slower than BBM.

As to the rest of your rant: Who is claiming that RIMM will be fine if BB10 is not a success, quickly?

Of course they won't. The cash-flow point is that they have enough cash on hand to see them through the launch. So they have no reason to be unable to launch BB10 properly, with appropriate marketting. Nothing more.

 

[theevilsharpie]

This is a sort f equivalence argument, and not a very good one. If security is important, you would rather no one have access (including yourself , temporarily) than 'others' have access.

You're raising a false dilemma. It's certainly possible to maintain mobile security without needing to be completely reliant on a 3rd party's messaging infrastructure.

 

[3chordcharlie]

When you stop to thjink for a moment, you will realize that's why it's you who is making a poor argument.

If, however we accept your argument as given, you have my response.

 

[theevilsharpie]

When you stop to thjink for a moment, you will realize that's why it's you who is making a poor argument.

I seem to be a bit slow this afternoon. Would you care to explain how I'm making a poor argument?

 

[3chordcharlie]

I seem to be a bit slow this afternoon. Would you care to explain how I'm making a poor argument?

You're the one that linked the two issues.

Either they are related, or they are not. I don't have enough technical knowledge to truly answer that question. What I do know is that no one else offers equivalent security to RIM at the moment.

So either "It's certainly possible to maintain mobile security without..." or it (currently) isn't. And if it is possible (and clearly by 'possible' we mean 'practical and currently achievable'), why isn't it widely available?

Your initial argument isn't a very good one; either security is paramount, or it is not. To the average consumer, it is perfectly reasonable to answer 'it is not'. For a business sending proprietary and/or competitive information wirelessly, it's a little rich for you to give a blanket answer of 'it is outweighed'. There are certainly businesses that would rather have their information inaccessible, even to themselves, temporarily, than have it be vulnerable.

A better argument for you would be to link the speed of BB communications with the reliance on company servers. Email and BBM over Blackberry servers aren't just fast; they are near instant. However, if this is a major selling feature, then uptime is certainly and directly a factor to be weighed.

So I would suggest redirecting your argument at strengths of the RIM platform where the argument will have some teeth.

Of course, Whatsapp is also a server-based program, and misbehaves on a weekly basis, rather than an annual one. And it is not terribly private.

 

[silverpig]

1. Whatever advantage RIM may have in security is countered by the fact that Blackberries rely on RIM's messaging infrastructure to function, and that infrastructure has failed several times over the past year.
2. RIM's "entrenched" user base is made up primarily of corporations that require their employees to carry Blackberries. These same corporations are slowly moving away from Blackberry, and giving their employees more freedom on what phones they use. For every day that goes by without a modern smartphone platform, more of that "entrenched" userbase escapes. Permanently.
3. WhatsApp

I was answering three things BB10 will have that Apple and android don't that will attract users. None of your points are counters. BB10 will have security that Apple and android wont, and it will attract users. Same with all the other points.

If you don't understand why people think RIM is doomed, consider the following points:

1. RIM is losing money. If you don't believe me, check their Income Statement (or whatever Canadian companies call it).
2. RIM is losing overall marketshare
3. RIM is losing customers in high-margin markets
4. RIM is losing developers
5. RIM is losing support with US carriers
6. Did I mention that RIM is losing money?

RIM fans continue to bandy about this "RIM has cash" talking point, but that can only carry them until BB10 launches. RIM has been claiming that BB10 will save the company, and when that doesn't happen (which is a very strong possibility), it'll be curtains for RIM as we know them today. It doesn't matter how much cash they have; investors are not going to allow an unprofitable venture to continue.

LOL

I know why people think RIM is doomed and I am saying their reasons aren't valid.

RIM is "losing money" because of paper write downs on intangible assets and inventory while booking one time expenses related to restructuring. They are FCF positive and have more than enough cash to get them through launch. Their cash position went UP even though they are taking a loss. They have plenty of cash to last them quite some time.

Yes RIM is losing share, and that isn't good but their subscriber base is growing. That does not spell DOOMED, it spells underperforming.

RIM is losing customers in high margin markets, but that also don't spell doom. If you think so, go talk to Sam Walton.

They are losing support with US carriers? All the carrier press on BB10 I have read has been very positive.

Did I mention that none of this spells doom?

 

[theevilsharpie]

Either they are related, or they are not. I don't have enough technical knowledge to truly answer that question. What I do know is that no one else offers equivalent security to RIM at the moment.

So either "It's certainly possible to maintain mobile security without..." or it (currently) isn't. And if it is possible (and clearly by 'possible' we mean 'practical and currently achievable'), why isn't it widely available?

Your initial argument isn't a very good one; either security is paramount, or it is not. To the average consumer, it is perfectly reasonable to answer 'it is not'. For a business sending proprietary and/or competitive information wirelessly, it's a little rich for you to give a blanket answer of 'it is outweighed'. There are certainly businesses that would rather have their information inaccessible, even to themselves, temporarily, than have it be vulnerable.

A better argument for you would be to link the speed of BB communications with the reliance on company servers. Email and BBM over Blackberry servers aren't just fast; they are near instant. However, if this is a major selling feature, then uptime is certainly and directly a factor to be weighed.

So I would suggest redirecting your argument at strengths of the RIM platform where the argument will have some teeth.

It doesn't look like you understand how RIM's infrastructure works compared to the rest of the industry.

RIM messaging infrastructure provides a means of secure, encrypted e-mail transit as well as device management (i.e., central control of phone settings). It works reasonably well, but e-mails have to go through RIM's network. If RIM goes down, so does your Blackberry's e-mail, and there's not a damn thing you can do about it.

On other phones, secure e-mail transit is provided by Exchange ActiveSync. Phones connect directly to their company's Exchange infrastructure via the Internet. The only "middlemen" are the ISP's involved in establishing the connection. ActiveSync only provides rudimentary device management functionality, so it's not directly comparable to RIM's security, but services like MobileIron can fill in those gaps without creating a dependence on 3rd party infrastructure for messaging transit.

So I stand by my argument: RIM's security comes at the cost of reliability, a tradeoff that doesn't exist on other mobile platforms.

Of course, Whatsapp is also a server-based program, and misbehaves on a weekly basis, rather than an annual one. And it is not terribly private.

WhatsApp is not an enterprise-level messaging app. It's more a competitor to Google Talk or whatever like service Apple has.

 

[Ichinisan]

so basically nothing.



I see lots of their "entrenched user base" switching to iOS and Android on FB

...and in my workplace.

...and many other workplaces.

 

[silverpig]

...and in my workplace.

...and many other workplaces.

But they're not switching FROM BB10...

Geez, RIM hasn't substantially done anything new in years and they still have a lot of users (not Apple numbers, but there are quite a few who are loyal to BB by choice). Imagine how well Apple would be doing if they hadn't updated the original iPhone. NO ONE would be using it.

RIM has that advantage of high switching costs for a lot of people, and it's something that is keeping them alive, and will keep them alive easily until BB10 comes through.

 

[3chordcharlie]

It doesn't look like you understand how RIM's infrastructure works compared to the rest of the industry.

RIM messaging infrastructure provides a means of secure, encrypted e-mail transit as well as device management (i.e., central control of phone settings). It works reasonably well, but e-mails have to go through RIM's network. If RIM goes down, so does your Blackberry's e-mail, and there's not a damn thing you can do about it.

On other phones, secure e-mail transit is provided by Exchange ActiveSync. Phones connect directly to their company's Exchange infrastructure via the Internet. The only "middlemen" are the ISP's involved in establishing the connection. ActiveSync only provides rudimentary device management functionality, so it's not directly comparable to RIM's security, but services like MobileIron can fill in those gaps without creating a dependence on 3rd party infrastructure for messaging transit.

So I stand by my argument: RIM's security comes at the cost of reliability, a tradeoff that doesn't exist on other mobile platforms.

I can describe how this works at a high level too, but I'm not claiming advanced technical knowledge. There is plenty of downside to all traffic having to run through a single place. Namely that it can be expected to cause downtime. Of course you have specifically stated that replacing RIM's 'black box' needs at least two products running at the corporate level. We haven't remotely established that individual companies running a 'mobile server' of one sort or another can expect better uptime than RIM delivers. It doesn't make the newspaper when American Airlines has downtime on their email.

As far as I can see, the 'tradeoff' with other solutions is less security, slower delivery, and whatever reliability your own IT dept. can deliver. But now we're talking about the tradeoff of the 'total package'. If security is job 1 (and sometimes it's not!) then RIM delivers that. To return to your original comment, it's like me saying bigger boobs can 'counteract' a flat butt. Well it can't, if you're an ass man.

WhatsApp is not an enterprise-level messaging app. It's more a competitor to Google Talk or whatever like service Apple has.

So it's a suitable direct replacement for BBM, or it isn't? You can't have every argument both ways

Edit - as I said, I like WhatsApp. I have BB-using friends who also use it. Guess how many choose to contact me that way rather than using BBM?

TBH I still can't figure how anyone willingly goes back to an SMS world.

 

[theevilsharpie]

I was answering three things BB10 will have that Apple and android don't that will attract users. None of your points are counters. BB10 will have security that Apple and android wont, and it will attract users. Same with all the other points.

I can purchase a solution from a company like MobileIron that will get me the same security functionality that RIM has, without tying myself to RIM's limited ecosystem.

And therein lies RIM's problem: I haven't seen anything that BB10 offers that I can't get on another platform today.

RIM is "losing money" because of paper write downs on intangible assets and inventory while booking one time expenses related to restructuring. They are FCF positive and have more than enough cash to get them through launch. Their cash position went UP even though they are taking a loss. They have plenty of cash to last them quite some time.

RIM may have the cash to last them a while, but they don't have the investor confidence. RIM's management has been telling investors that BB10 will reverse RIM's slide. If BB10 doesn't gain traction, what will RIM do? Do you think RIM's board will allow RIM to continue losing money quarter after quarter? Probably not; RIM will either be sold or severely restructured.

RIM is losing customers in high margin markets, but that also don't spell doom. If you think so, go talk to Sam Walton.

Wal-Mart is successful with low-margin products because of their size and efficiency. RIM has none of those advantages; their cost structure won't support low-margin operation, and true low-cost competitors like Huawai will kick their ass if they try.

They are losing support with US carriers? All the carrier press on BB10 I have read has been very positive.

Apple has been hugely successful with their retail stores. RIM? Not so much.

Android phones get a shitload of shelf space in phone carriers retails outlets. RIM? Not so much.

Not only does RIM have an uphill battle due to their aging platform, their sell-through rate sucks. With tablets and 'phablets' gaining additional traction, traditional Android smartphones selling strong, and Apple's iPhone available everywhere, nobody wants to waste shelf space on a product that doesn't sell. It's going to take more than positive press to change that.

Did I mention that none of this spells doom?

If RIM was just going through a rough patch, I would agree with you. But the market has left them behind, and I don't see any viable way for RIM to recover barring some miracle.

 

[BladeVenom]

iOS has 600,000+ apps; Android has 500,00+ apps. How many will BB10 have?

 

[theevilsharpie]

I can describe how this works at a high level too, but I'm not claiming advanced technical knowledge. There is plenty of downside to all traffic having to run through a single place. Namely that it can be expected to cause downtime. Of course you have specifically stated that replacing RIM's 'black box' needs at least two products running at the corporate level.

With RIM's solution, you also need to two products: BES and Exchange. RIM has no advantage in that regard, other than perhaps being a known quantity.

We haven't remotely established that individual companies running a 'mobile server' of one sort or another can expect better uptime than RIM delivers.

RIM had a multi-day outage earlier this year, and it wasn't their first. I'm a small-time tech with extremely limited resources, and I've never had an outage that severe in my career on systems that I manage. If I did, my customers would be coming after me with torches and pitchforks. For smaller companies that can't afford to maintain their own systems, reliable services like Google Apps are available.

So yes, most people can expect better uptime than RIM delivers.

As far as I can see, the 'tradeoff' with other solutions is less security, slower delivery, and whatever reliability your own IT dept. can deliver. But now we're talking about the tradeoff of the 'total package'. If security is job 1 (and sometimes it's not!) then RIM delivers that. To return to your original comment, it's like me saying bigger boobs can 'counteract' a flat butt. Well it can't, if you're an ass man.

Again, you're presenting a false dilemma. RIM does not have a monopoly on secure, fast, and reliable e-mail transit. I have no idea why you think they do.

So it's a suitable direct replacement for BBM, or it isn't? You can't have every argument both ways

I cited WhatsApp because it's a cross-platform messaging app that everyone seems to be gravitating towards. I personally use Google Talk, which is a direct replacement for BBM.

 

[Doppel]

Most companies (I'd say 90%) don't get it. RIMM gets it.

RIMM CEO Thains said in an interview:
"I have duties as the CEO of the company to the shareholders. I’m not working with my own money. It is the shareholders’ money."

When a person says this as an investor it is like gold.

Every public company works for shareholders.

I said you didn't know what you are talking about, and you post a stock chart? How did I criticize myself?

Because I don't care about BB10. I said RIMM's future sucks. I don't even care to get caught up in a debate about BB10. It's marginally more interesting to me than arguing the tenets of a key component in house paint.

I know is that BB is losing market share at a breathtaking rate, that its stock is nose-diving because the company is looking down the barrel of a gun. The rest is noise. BB10 is a hail mary pass.

This loyal fan base you pretend exists doesn't. People hate their blackberries, hence its catastrophic loss of market share.

Their focus is India and countries where BB is still successful.

How do you guys say this with a straight face? India? Really, who cares? Indians don't care about good phones? They're not going to jump on the droid/iphone bandwagon?

RIMM is a dinosaur, it's an anachronism. The market has said it, the stock's nose dive mirrors it.

I know why people think RIM is doomed and I am saying their reasons aren't valid.

How is cratering of market sure not valid again?

Did I mention that none of this spells doom?

At least three times, but, yes, it does spell doom. Companies losing market share at Blackberry's rate have three options:
1) Successful hail mary pass to stem the bleeding and recover ground
2) Go bankrupt
3) Get bought out

If BB10 doesn't count as 1) BB will suffer 2) or 3). I highly doubt BB10 will be that good. We now have another player coming online with Microsoft's Windows 8 phones, giving BB yet another huge, monetized competitor. Blackberry is fvcked. They have dithered for too long selling crap to corporations. They filled a niche just like typewriters used to.

RIM has that advantage of high switching costs for a lot of people, and it's something that is keeping them alive, and will keep them alive easily until BB10 comes through.

Sorry, these users are now so pissed that when they can leave they will. Really, many already have.

Every time I see somebody with a BB I ask them about it. As recently as yesterday a guy who said he has "the latest and greatest" was saying how he hates it, wants to get a droid. I literally only know one person in my group at work who when given the chance for an iphone went with another BB. The rest of us literally count down the months until we can get iPhones. Got mine this week and can't believe I put up with that crapberry for so long.

 

[3chordcharlie]

With RIM's solution, you also need to two products: BES and Exchange. RIM has no advantage in that regard, other than perhaps being a known quantity.

Roughly speaking, you need Exchange regardless. So to replace BES you need Activesync and whatever else you choose to use for management/security.

RIM had a multi-day outage earlier this year, and it wasn't their first. I'm a small-time tech with extremely limited resources, and I've never had an outage that severe in my career on systems that I manage. If I did, my customers would be coming after me with torches and pitchforks. For smaller companies that can't afford to maintain their own systems, reliable services like Google Apps are available.

So yes, most people can expect better uptime than RIM delivers.

That's not remotely close to being an argument. Or quantitative evidence. I'm not really sure what to make of it.

Again, you're presenting a false dilemma. RIM does not have a monopoly on secure, fast, and reliable e-mail transit. I have no idea why you think they do.

You're the one that started with "whatever advantage Rim may have in security is countered...". Now you're electing to go with 'they have no advantage. Make up your mind already!

I cited WhatsApp because it's a cross-platform messaging app that everyone seems to be gravitating towards. I personally use Google Talk, which is a direct replacement for BBM.

No, it isn't. Actually, as BB-market share has dropped, even BBM isn't a replacement for BBM a couple of years ago, because fewer people actually have it.

So I'm stuck back in 1999 trading slow, limited, unreliable SMS messages with folks who can't stop telling me how great their iPhone is.