RIM death watch

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Sep 29, 2004
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Canadian carriers expecting record setting first day sales for the Z10.

Lines for phones not taken by preorder were seen this morning in many locations.
 
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Jul 10, 2007
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From the sounds of things, it sounds like BB10s in Canada are going to be wiped out by pre-orders. No pre-order and you're screwed. Some pretty damned impressive demand. Guessing 100,000+ phones but probably more in a country of 35 million. If they sell 350,000, that is 1% of the population in the first few days.

I anticipate that Canada will have 200,000 or so phones on launch day.

UPDATE: Some carriers now taking new pre-orders but saying that you'll be waiting till atleast the 14th of February.

Are u bb's pr? How much are they paying u to post here?
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Nope, just reporting in the "RIMM death watch" thread. Thought we should keep an accurate historical record as we watch this company die.

Oh, that reminds me. As of about 2 PM many locations in Canada were sold out of Z10s.
 
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irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
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I don't think most people had a BB. Android and iOS gained their users from the rapidly exploding smartphone market.

Over time people become more and more entrenched in their OS of choice, making them less likely to switch.

In my opinion BB has a negative brand recognition to the general smart phone public.

Most people didn't have a BB because they didn't need one and the tech was a lot more $$$ for a lot less function. They still had the reputation as the high-end phone used by professionals, which I'd hardly call "negative."

As others have pointed out, what BB (and any other prospective smart phone system) needs to work on is the long game and their app ecosystem/experience. Even the best new phone won't get many switch-overs barring another exploitable leap in tech, but there are always new users coming to market. If you can consistently pick up even a fraction of them, you end up with significant market share over the years.

Honestly I think a lot of the ho-hum reactions to Blackberry's release is the typical Blockbuster mentality. Just because it doesn't do anything mind-blowing doesn't mean it's negative. Most development and growth is highly incremental. Just look at a company like HP or Xerox. When was the last time either of them released a truly mind-blowing product? But they're still around and very recognized names with good chunks of marketshare.

Blackberry did what it needed to do. The question is if this is the start of a trend, or just a last spasm of life in a dying company.
 

silverpig

Lifer
Jul 29, 2001
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Nope, just reporting in the "RIMM death watch" thread. Thought we should keep an accurate historical record as we watch this company die.

Oh, that reminds me. As of about 2 PM many locations in Canada were sold out of Z10s.

I walked into 4 stores today ready to buy a phone outright. I don't have one
 

Ichinisan

Lifer
Oct 9, 2002
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Why didn't Blackberry do it like Apple? If you want the latest iDevice on launch day, just pre-order on the day pre-orders begin.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Why didn't Blackberry do it like Apple? If you want the latest iDevice on launch day, just pre-order on the day pre-orders begin.

People did. As a comapny, you have to predict demand for manufacturing. Probably give it your best guess and add 20%.

Even some with pre-orders had to wait till after more stock got in. People that reserved on release day at the store due to stock being out were soemtimes being told that they won't get their phone till February 14. The demand is just way better than expected.

People say that BBRY created artificial demand. I say invert, always invert. What if they prdocued twice as many phones and no one came to buy them?

BBRY publicly stated this would happen. It looks liek the boulder has been pushed off the cliff and directed at Android:
"The Washington Post writes about how vendor fragmentation leads to security vulnerabilities and other exploits. This situation is '...making the world's most popular mobile operating system more vulnerable than its rivals to hackers, scam artists and a growing universe of malicious software' unlike Apple's iOS which they note has widely available updates several times a year. In light of many companies' Bring Your Own Device initiatives 'You have potentially millions of Androids making their way into the work space, accessing confidential documents,' said Christopher Soghoian, a former Federal Trade Commission technology expert who now works for the American Civil Liberties Union. 'It's like a really dry forest, and it's just waiting for a match.'"

Of course, teh boulder won't hit till something major happens like a big bank getting hacked hard because of BYOD. My neighbor is an architect with BYOD and I just don't see the risk of them being targetted.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Preliminary reports from Dubai are like a broken record. Sell outs are pending. All white Z10s were accounted for via pre-orders.

Manufacturing in December estimated at 500,000 units. January was 1-2 million. February is 2+ million. Ya, vague. These are estimates by analysts. Actual numbers are known to BBRY only and will never be known. If at end of February 4 million were made and they will have all sold, that is pretty damned good.
 
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Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
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Preliminary reports from Dubai are like a broken record. Sell outs are pending. All white Z10s were accounted for via pre-orders.

Manufacturing in December estimated at 500,000 units. January was 1-2 million. February is 2+ million. Ya, vague. These are estimates by analysts. Actual numbers are known to BBRY only and will never be known. If at end of February 4 million were made and they will have all sold, that is pretty damned good.


You are letting emotion color your current trade. As of now all your positions are still way out of the money and the value eroding as time passes and gets closer to expiration.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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You are letting emotion color your current trade. As of now all your positions are still way out of the money and the value eroding as time passes and gets closer to expiration.

No, not really. I have expectations going in. And expectations are being grossly exceeded at this point.

I'm up about 700% right ow on my "trade" ... I base my thesis on value investing so my calls are an "investment".

Ever since the launch, short interest has been dropping.
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
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No, not really. I have expectations going in. And expectations are being grossly exceeded at this point.

I'm up about 700% right ow on my "trade" ... I base my thesis on value investing so my calls are an "investment".

Ever since the launch, short interest has been dropping.

You are up 700% which is an excellent return, why not take your profit and lock it in?

Before it becomes a 100% loss position.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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You are up 700% which is an excellent return, why not take your profit and lock it in?

Before it becomes a 100% loss position.

I bought with acceptance of the fact that it could be a 100% loss. Actually, that's not possible since some of it is stock.

The reason I don't take any off the table is because BBRY is grossly undervalued. A company with no debt that is currently generating $2B in free cash flow with a possible catalyst (Z10 is not proven yet) is worth more than $8-$9 billion.

I just think the Z10 is going to do better in the US than most people think.

Also, BBRY was 5% of my portfolio. I went in accepting that it might make my portfolio 5% lighter. If anything, I'm not being emotional just because BBRY experienced a run up.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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Don't think BB/BBRY (the stock) is going to do anything "major" until it's released early March in the US of A (i.e "the center of the world"). Reviews are already out, so we may even have to wait for sales figures to come out.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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I guess I should have taken some of my profit.

Shrugs.

Next run up, I'll sell a piece. maybe 20%. Then sit on the sidelines to decide my next move.
 

PimpJuice

Platinum Member
Feb 14, 2005
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I guess I should have taken some of my profit.

Shrugs.

Next run up, I'll sell a piece. maybe 20%. Then sit on the sidelines to decide my next move.

I think this thread needs a bump. I can't wait for IHateMyJob2004 to post his spin on the numbers. I can't say we didn't warn him to get out. Bad idea to invest in a company whose only strategy is playing catch-up.
 

silverpig

Lifer
Jul 29, 2001
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My biggest worry with BB right now is they seem to be abandoning their service revenue business. That's what has kept them around and is what will keep them around.
 

rockyct

Diamond Member
Jun 23, 2001
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I think this thread needs a bump. I can't wait for IHateMyJob2004 to post his spin on the numbers. I can't say we didn't warn him to get out. Bad idea to invest in a company whose only strategy is playing catch-up.

Here are his thoughts from Monday...

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=35179925&postcount=408
"
FBN tanking even more. BBRY doing well today!

People, you really need to research BBRY prior to Friday's earnings report. It is either going to meet expecations (which are rediculously low) or they are going to blow earnigns out of the water. Or somewhere in between. Probably not going to "disappoint".

Things to watch ... how many BB10 devices shipped. "The Street" says 3-4 million". Thing is, most agree that it is going to be 3+ million. If it gets over 4 or even into 5+ million the stock could sky rocket.

Notice I did not mention EPS. That is a garbage metric. I am eagerly awaiting the FCF numbers."




Yeah, the numbers were surprising, only 2.7 million devices shipped.
 

theevilsharpie

Platinum Member
Nov 2, 2009
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So Blackberry 10 didn't reverse BlackBerry's slide into irrelevance?

Who could've possibly predicted that?

I'm shocked. No really. This is my shocked face.
 
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