Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
This front is getting very intense it seems, a lot of strikes, etc.

I mentioned some of these towns the other day, near Avdiivka.

"At Avdiyivka direction Russian army shelled Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Semenivka of Donetsk region. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Oleksandropil, Semenivka, Novokalynove, Berdychi, Netaylove of Donetsk region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

"At Bakhmut direction Russian army shelled Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar of Donetsk region. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Spirne, Verkhnokamyanske and Ivanivka of Donetsk region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

"At Kherson direction Russian army shelled Beryslav, Ivanivka, Novotyahynka of Kherson region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

"At Orikhiv direction Russian army shelled Malynivka, Bilohirya, Novodanylivka, Scherbaky of Zaporizhzhia region. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne of Zaporizhzhia region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

Also, Russian airforce now getting involved more.



That air base is pretty far.


So Russia is coming from many sides now.

And the Russians have blown up railroad bridge which provides logistics with the south of Odessa region:

 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,770
37,807
136
*silly horseshit snipped* Very much laughable.

Heh, you have no idea. That post of yours was so chock full of falsehoods and weak attempts at FUD I legit had a good laugh. The butthurt you guys have over America making Putin look like a broke ass punk bitch is all well and good, but do remember we're not the only ally. More importantly, it's Ukraine and it's brave people who deserve the credit for this ongoing humiliation of a supposed military super power. Weapons and armor that work as intended are great, but they don't do much without people and commitment. Your "they should negotiate" shows you live in your own little reality, still. Oh well.

It pleases me you aren't an American. The constant effort to misinform readers here, the war crime double standard you have, I guess I'm just glad that you're both bad at your task as well as someone else's problem.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,556
49,007
136
Russian Debt - 280 Billion
US Debt - 33 Trillion

The only thing keeping our worthless dollar from collapsing is it being the global reserve currency.

Although the rest of the world is working hard to get off of it

Like I said, keep slapping those sanctions on countries to try and control them, and blatantly trying to steal their money to fund proxy wars.

Eventually enough countries get tired of it and find ways to move away from it. Russia is a prime example of how a country can rid itself of it.


Might want to start buying real estate, gold or stocks. Read inflation is already starting to creep up again. Refinery strikes + potential attack by Iran probably not going to do Biden any wonders with inflation.
lol. You do realize that means the US and Russia have similar debt/GDP ratios; right? Do you have any idea how math works?

Do you think anyone would actually rather live in Russia than the US? Are you that delusional?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,556
49,007
136
This front is getting very intense it seems, a lot of strikes, etc.

I mentioned some of these towns the other day, near Avdiivka.

"At Avdiyivka direction Russian army shelled Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Semenivka of Donetsk region. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Oleksandropil, Semenivka, Novokalynove, Berdychi, Netaylove of Donetsk region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

"At Bakhmut direction Russian army shelled Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar of Donetsk region. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Spirne, Verkhnokamyanske and Ivanivka of Donetsk region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

"At Kherson direction Russian army shelled Beryslav, Ivanivka, Novotyahynka of Kherson region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

"At Orikhiv direction Russian army shelled Malynivka, Bilohirya, Novodanylivka, Scherbaky of Zaporizhzhia region. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne of Zaporizhzhia region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report"

Also, Russian airforce now getting involved more.



That air base is pretty far.


So Russia is coming from many sides now.

And the Russians have blown up railroad bridge which provides logistics with the south of Odessa region:

You must be very angry about this, considering your views about Israel. We both know you are morally consistent, after all.
 
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raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
I am angry at violence and lack of peace, yes. That is why immediate negotiations are a must to prevent more loss of life. I have made that clear. I respect Ukraine and their soldiers have fought bravely, no doubt. Because if this war continues, as I have noted in several posts of detailed info, the Russians are simply grinding down the Ukrainians and taking more territory.

April 5 "Russia delivered 39 massive strikes on Ukrainian military, energy and mercenaries’ deployment sites over the week in retaliation to Kiev’s attempts to damage its oil and gas and energy facilities, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Friday."

So if this continues, Ukraine will suffer much more if there is a competition with targeting energy infrastructure. This is because Ukraine is already have constrained in energy and Russia not so much.
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
These generous Germans are very giving these days. Look at what they gave to the Ukrainians:

  • 10 Warthog all-terrain tracked vehicles
  • 6,000 shells of 155 mm ammunition (from Bundeswehr and industrial warehouses)
  • 16 VECTOR reconnaissance drones with spare parts
  • 30 RQ-35 HEIDRUN reconnaissance drones
  • 30 frequency range extenders for anti-drone equipment
  • 2 WISENT-1 demining tanks with spare parts
  • 11 mobile, remotely operated and protected demining systems
  • three mine plows
  • 70 thermal imagers
  • 24 outboard motors
  • 1 million rounds of ammunition for firearms (from Bundeswehr and industry stocks)
  • 680 MK 556 assault rifles
  • 50 HLR 338 high-precision rifles with 60,000 rounds of ammunition
  • 105 CR 308 rifles
So that means in a couple of days, these 6,000 shells will be depleted. So that is why we must look into things before believing Western aid to Ukraine is substantial. Some of it is and some of it is not.

Also:
In addition, Germany announced that it has plans to provide Ukraine with 20 Marder armored personnel carriers, one Warthog all-terrain vehicle, 70 infrared cameras, and more missiles for the Patriot air defense system.

Since the beginning of Russian invasion, Germany provided Ukraine with material and technical assistance worth about $5.65 billion.

In addition, more than 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have undergone training in Germany, which has cost Germany an additional $306.5 million. Other expenses were also spent on treatment of wounded Ukrainian soldiers.

-------------------------

The numbers are way too small to fight such a large front war.

Source: The New Voice Of Ukraine
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,770
37,807
136
I am angry at violence and lack of peace, yes.


And yet you cheer on the creator of that violence, a man who wants to rebuild the Soviet empire by force. What you call your anger, over war crimes, is dependent on location and nationalities. Probably why no one takes it seriously.

You're either uncommonly stupid, a blatantly dishonest hypocrite, or a poorly written bot. Which is it?
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,556
49,007
136
I am angry at violence and lack of peace, yes. That is why immediate negotiations are a must to prevent more loss of life. I have made that clear. I respect Ukraine and their soldiers have fought bravely, no doubt. Because if this war continues, as I have noted in several posts of detailed info, the Russians are simply grinding down the Ukrainians and taking more territory.

April 5 "Russia delivered 39 massive strikes on Ukrainian military, energy and mercenaries’ deployment sites over the week in retaliation to Kiev’s attempts to damage its oil and gas and energy facilities, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Friday."

So if this continues, Ukraine will suffer much more if there is a competition with targeting energy infrastructure. This is because Ukraine is already have constrained in energy and Russia not so much.
So to be clear you condemn Russia in the strongest possible terms for invading Ukraine?

Like everything you’ve said about Israel at a minimum.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,032
7,447
136
lol. You do realize that means the US and Russia have similar debt/GDP ratios; right? Do you have any idea how math works?

Do you think anyone would actually rather live in Russia than the US? Are you that delusional?

-Nevermind the fact that having 33 trillion dollars in debt means that countries trust you enough to lend you 33 trillion dollars...

What's that old expression? If you owe the bank $1000 you have a problem, if you owe the bank $33 Trillion dollars the bank has a problem...
 
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Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
So then:
- demand facts
- get told facts
- claim the facts are all "opinions" or "whining" or "not facts enough"
- demand facts

rinse and repeat until we reach another 36000 messages of collective denial. All the facts that don't fit your propaganda's narrative are instantly not facts but opinions, all the opinions that fit your narrative are facts.

The funny thing is, your war is lost and it's an unavoidable result. It's about waiting for the result of this sad affair, and the sooner the better. I could tell you "we can just wait and see who's wrong and you can come back to me when I'll be proven wrong" but, you won't, because I won't. The game is already set. We may not even see a single card left to play yet. Ukraine just going to be a sad, slow murder of men who die for a lost cause. And I can't stop it, clearly even just trying to spread some knowledge about the situation online is a lost cause.

@Young Grasshopper has also already mentioned the deepest of the horrible mistakes of this war, the death of the Dollar as the monopolistic global currency, which you have done entirely by yourselves. The Empire managed to pick what was its greatest tools of pressure and control, dollar global monopoly for international trades and SWIFT, and shot both of them by kicking Russia out of it in the hopes that it would kill their economy. In the end, Russia is doing quite well without them, and this move will have the same effect as..................................I actually can't find one. I can't think of a moment in History where a move this absurdly bad was ever played.

You had a way to tax the entire world through inflation thanks to the petrodollar. You had a way to control, monitor and block all international transfers in the banking system, or nearly all.
And you've shot them both by showing to the entire world that not using the dollar anymore would turn out fine, and giving Russia the incentive to create a SWIFT equivalent that they can just grow and provide to the world as an alternative.
You have taken a highly gas and petrol rich country, Russia, and forced it away from its natural economic and political partners in Europe, which you fully control as vassals, towards an alliance with a highly industrialised and populous country, China, that is thoroughly independent of you politically. And whose official goal is to retake its status as Greatest Empire on Earth after 150 years of humiliations (1830-1980).
The depth of this strategic mistake is beyond staggering, I can't think of a historical precedent this bad. Maybe firing Minister Calonne, which eventually led to the French Revolution. And that's peanuts compared to this.

While having every single card to play in hand, the U.S Empire has played them in a way that will destroy its global currency monopoly, its naturally dominant status, and its ability to control global trade. And you've offered China a forced partner that happens to have a ton of oil, when their lack of oil was one of their last resource issues along with lack of water. It's a self-own of tremendous proportions that will take decades to be truly felt to the last of its ripples.

I merely have to watch the rest unfold as it unavoidably will. And suffer the consequences as someone who lives in a vassal state to the Empire, but at least I know what to expect. In 10 or so years, Europe will be a shadow of what it was economically, the U.S will be suffering massive inflation (if you think TODAY's inflation is bad, wait for 2035), and there will be absolutely no walking back. And it'll only get worse from there.

The Empire held a crushing army, international trade control, could tax the world at will through money printing and the petrodollar paying for it, had strategic depth equal to what the British had in 1840, leaderless vassals across all Western Europe, Southeast Asia and Africa, a dominant position in the Middle East and held a massive advantage in the most advanced technologies, particularly weaponry, telecoms, chipmaking and pharmaceuticals.

By its incredibly poor moves in the Ukraine war, the American Empire has taken the dollar's hegemony and destroyed it. This and a certain Nordstream "accident" will suck away Europe's economies back to the U.S, since the vassals are always sacrificed before the Master, much like how Hungary, Czechia, Poland and East Germany were sacrificed before Russia fell in the late USSR. But when Europe, particularly Germany, will have been utterly spent, the U.S will face the hyperinflation that it can't dampen through international exchanges anymore, since any alternative will not suffer the same level of inflation and will be increasingly preferred.

The loss of the "free inflation" will mean that the U.S state will have to start facing its expenditures more strictly, which means that the massive army, massive navy, massive research expenditures, money that flowed into the biggest state-supported companies...everything will grow, for a lack of a better word, narrower. Giant pipes of money will become funnels. Funnels will become dead ends. The crushing military-industrial complex, state sponsored R&D, and whatever else that relied on the dollar not being Monopoly money, it's all going to go so painful as time goes on. All the while China irrevocably recovers its N°1 status with Russia in tow, as the West falls into an increasingly visible state of decay.

And much like the strategic situation in Donbass or Luhansk, that game is set. No credible amount of effort or plays will overturn this. You have moved History's gears into a position where the sheer weight of the world, that used to go your way, the "expensively inflationist, extraterritorial but oh-so-unavoidable Dollar" way, will now increasingly go to the competition that you forced to exist. And that's just the Russia moves. The China moves, getting them out of advanced chip/AI availability, is spurring even more efforts to get them to produce advanced chips and lithography. Sure, they rely on ASML, but for how long? 5 years? 10? Geopolitics is a long game, but the idiots who did this have somehow built a perfect block, with the industry, money, natural resources, and every single pillar necessary, against themselves.
SWIFT alternative and international trade currency to Russia, high volume industry and advanced technologies in semiconductors to China.

The Ukraine war will be marked down as the seminal event of the downfall of the U.S Empire, not because of what Russia will have done, but because of what the Americans will have done to themselves.
I still can't believe how poorly this was played. It's like having a perfect deck and somehow playing every card wrong. I would laugh if I wasn't going to be skewered and cooked along with the "This is fine" supporters.
The only silver lining is that two powers will not work as well as one, and that neither Russia or China are much interested in being a beacon of free trade. But the sheer weight of the world will push them into it.

I was going to answer to the rest, but frankly, I've already given you a lot, and got pretty much nothing but denial and insults for it. Trying to make you all think about the reality of what's going on is like feeding a pitbull with veggies. The pitbull vomits everything back, and you get your hands bitten for trying. So this'll be the last bit of wisdom from me. Spit at it, insult me, ignore it, call it "opinions", or whatever you please. Everything I said here, whether about the proxy war in Ukraine or the greater state of the U.S Empire, will come to pass nonetheless. It is only a question of time.
This is one of the most well-written OpEds I've read in a long time. Thoughtful, concise (yeah, concise, because even though it's a lot of shit it covers a hell of a lot more, even) and smart. Beautiful piece of work, that you didn't even need to come back through and edit the hell out of after the fact.

Yeah, you picked up on something I noticed a while ago myself. We started to sanction Russia and cut them out of the financial systems tied to the West and they ... didn't implode. Uh-oh. Well that's not cool, we fucked up. Russia is putting on a clinic with how to function without the USD. What's our largest global export? The USD. They discovered they can trade without it, courtesy of us basically forcing them to be self-reliant and figuring out how to do so. BRICS countries are increasingly starting to trade with local currencies and / or trying to get there. Our control of the world is starting to slip. It doesn't take much to realize this is what will come to pass, it already is for anyone who can open their eyes or take blinders off.

Will the USD stop being the global reserve overnight? Nope, it won't. I think perhaps your timelines could be a bit hastened as to the overall demise but on the other hand I'm aware I could entirely be wrong. The one thing I do know is that the cat is out of the bag, and we have done something horribly wrong. The road to hell is sometimes paved with good intentions, afterall.

Good observations on the chip manufacturing as well. China is doing real work on trying to get around limitations, with varying degrees of success. It won't be just China in the long run, Putin is bent on getting Russia self-reliant too and this will undoubtedly encapsulate semiconductors. They've largely failed in the past to be even remotely competitive (not at all) but you know what comes before success? Failure, usually. Especially with their increased partnership in damn near all things with China now, it'll be easier to achieve at least modest success on this front ... and really, that's all they would need.

Oh yeah, welcome to the flogging club. I see you met the locals. Pull up a chair.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,388
3,118
146
BRICS is total bullshit, if not for press releases and summits no one would know it exists.

Russia's economy has greatly suffered due to this war and the sanctions.

The idea that Russia will stand up an advanced semiconductor industry under these circumstances is laughable.
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,848
3,389
136
BRICS is total bullshit, if not for press releases and summits no one would know it exists.

Russia's economy has greatly suffered due to this war and the sanctions.

The idea that Russia will stand up an advanced semiconductor industry under these circumstances is laughable.
they lost to 1980 US semi conductors by a really long fucking way, people are insane..........

the actual linch-pin is the EU , if the EU stays aligned with the US then single polar world continues , if they split ( trump etc ) then probably a 5 polar world
US + JAP + AU and friends ( ie the pacific / SEA )
EU
India
Russia
China
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,763
8,269
136
I posted facts and observations that sustained a logic.
All I got in response is:




So name calling and repeating the same propaganda. And I muted at least 5 people whose entire conversation before I even posted anything was already insults.

Your general understanding of the situation isn't poor, you just don't want to understand the situation.
A typical case of "as long as I scream the same falsehood louder, the other party will have to submit".

Well, you can go back to that circus without me.

Your prattling won't change a thing.
Ukraine will lose, the U.S Empire is on the way down in an extremely brutal way in the next 10 years. Maybe 15 if things go slow. Russia has achieved all strategic objectives and it wasn't even difficult for them. You've lost in every way as I explained here:

There is not much to add except how this sad charade will unroll and massacre however many Ukrainians for nothing (and a lot of Russian soldiers on top of it), and since you've been offered wisdom and responded with insults, I won't bother. You can all prattle on for another 36000 messages, then get fed some final message of propaganda by your incompetent leadership, about how "this Ukrainian general betrayed" or "Zelensky abandoned his people" or "it was the fault of the Chinese" or whatever piñata they'll go to beat to not get blamed themselves.
Enjoy your giant lie. And don't forget to insult me again for giving actual information.
You are absurd, insane, as factless and feckless as Trump and MTG. Russia is a failed state, the great majority of it's intelligent inhabitants have fled the country. It's a closed society, you cannot speak your mind (IF you have a mind to speak) or you will be crushed. You, and grasshopper and everyone living in Russia are simply to be pitied.
 

Mahboi

Senior member
Apr 4, 2024
741
1,313
96
This is one of the most well-written OpEds I've read in a long time. Thoughtful, concise (yeah, concise, because even though it's a lot of shit it covers a hell of a lot more, even) and smart. Beautiful piece of work, that you didn't even need to come back through and edit the hell out of after the fact.
Thank you, the compliments are very appreciated. I did edit/reread at least 5 times before posting.
Yeah, you picked up on something I noticed a while ago myself. We started to sanction Russia and cut them out of the financial systems tied to the West and they ... didn't implode. Uh-oh. Well that's not cool, we fucked up. Russia is putting on a clinic with how to function without the USD. What's our largest global export? The USD. They discovered they can trade without it, courtesy of us basically forcing them to be self-reliant and figuring out how to do so. BRICS countries are increasingly starting to trade with local currencies and / or trying to get there. Our control of the world is starting to slip. It doesn't take much to realize this is what will come to pass, it already is for anyone who can open their eyes or take blinders off.
Exactly the problem. There was a simple choice for the world: bow to the USD, with the grip of the American State behind it, risk getting sanctioned, risk american laws being applied to your citizens, risk the ire of the USA when their interests came upon you...or on the other hand, there was the great dark void of losing all the infrastructure (SWIFT, international banking system) and trying to survive alone against the world.
And in a few years, the choice will be "USD and the U.S State and its imperial interests" or "the Russian alternative and its imperial interests".

It is a dramatically worse situation in every possible metric. The unknown is now known. Countries with little for large scale banking infrastructures will eventually just "attach" to Russia like they did to the U.S. If the Russians aren't too stupid they'll merely match 80% of what the Americans offer and that'll be that. Take BRICS(which really means China) general financial backing and that's it, the total monopoly has suddenly become a competitive market where the Americans are so, so, so ridiculously bloated because nobody competed before.

To put it in computer terms, "It's 1982 and IBM suddenly has competition with Compaq". And we all know where that ended.
Will the USD stop being the global reserve overnight? Nope, it won't. I think perhaps your timelines could be a bit hastened as to the overall demise but on the other hand I'm aware I could entirely be wrong. The one thing I do know is that the cat is out of the bag, and we have done something horribly wrong. The road to hell is sometimes paved with good intentions, afterall.
I'm not enough of a competent economist to give a prediction, but Young Grasshopper and you have pointed out the problem: the USD is under an absurd degree of debt, and that's fine as long as you're the best option, or formerly the only option, to hope that debt repaid.

In the words of Tywin/Tyrion Lannister "if the Iron Bank can't get its money back, it will fund our enemies". Well, there were no enemies or competitors that held any promise. And now, there will be.
The problem isn't to have $33T or any other ridiculous number, the problem is that if your debt is less likely to be repaid than the competition's, you get an increasing amount of weight against you, and as the Law of Capitalism states, the more money you have, the more you can do things which makes you more money. Stands to reason that the N°2 has an uphill battle against the N°1, so the question becomes who's going to become N°1?

And for that, I love using this metaphor:

There's a whisky seller (let's call him Johnny) in the street that's selling his whisky from the biggest, most mean-looking barrel ever. And everyone comes for a glass.
Then someday, the seller sees Ivan and kicks him off the stand, telling him he won't be getting any whisky anymore and tells everyone to not talk to Ivan.
Ivan sets up his vodka stand across the street. The vodka stand is smaller, has a worse table and looks pretty poor, but it does attract a few customers who were also kicked out by Johnny.
And every day, people notice that at Ivan's stand, they seem to get pretty damn drunk. VERY drunk.
So one after the other, depending on how much they like Johnny or how much of Johnny's whisky they already drank, they go and try. And realise immediately that Johnny's whisky was being cut with water. More and more water every single day since years. When you're having just one source, you don't see it, but when you test Ivan's vodka, it's instantly obvious.
And you pay the same money for Johnny's whisky as you pay for Ivan's vodka.

While the american debt is absolutely ridiculous, the real problem is the american inflation. "Cutting with water" means printing money, and throwing the dollar's value down the drain every year. Countries who have $1M and want to buy 1000 barrels of petrol will have to get that $1M through selling things on the intl markets. But when a few years later, they'll want to get the same 1000 barrels, suddenly they need $1.3M, while not having any more dollars than before.

Inflation through money printing is functionally a tax. With taxes, the State takes your money for itself. With inflation, it prints money, injects it into the economy, buys what it wants at full currency price, the money gets shuffled into the economy and loses value as it does. The goods, services and skills in your economy are the same, more paper just means that what used to be bought for 1$ now can be bought with 2$, one from the normal economy, and one that was freshly printed by the State. So prices rise because there's more "currency watering down", because the State's money is pressuring the economy's current money.

When the Dollar is the sole currency that the world uses, the world pays tax through inflation to the United Printers of America. When the American State gets global competition on the dollar (Ivan opens up shop), suddenly everyone will go from "have 1M$, get 300 barrels instead of 1000" to "have 1M[Russian global currency], get 1000 barrels". And that's how you know who's going to become number 1.

The problem will also climb into an absurd death spiral at some point. Because let's say you start with:
- 150 countries use the dollar for their oil
- the U.S state prints enough dollars to create a 30% inflation of monetary mass in the U.S.A, but spreads it across the world
- the dollar makes a 5% shared inflation

A year later, it's:
- 140 countries use petrodollars
- 30% inflation of monetary mass
- dollar makes 5.5% shared inflation

Three years later:
- 100 countries on petrodollar
- 30% inflation of monetary mass
- dollar makes 10% shared inflation

Meanwhile the competition's monetary space has a 3% flat inflation and all the countries that go to them have to deal with comparatively much less stringent consequences of the Russian/Chinese/BRICS monetary policies. Meaning the inflation tax and multiple privileges the US state gave itself from the USD dominance just aren't there. The countries that jump off the USD keep getting richer because they suffer less inflation tax, and keep climbing while the followers of the USD keep suffering harder every year.

When you get to the point that it's the last guard of the American Empire (read: the most wrecked/submissive vassals, say, England) that's going to be stuck there with 30% yearly inflation and an absolutely deadly financial situation, everyone's gonna jump. And it will be hard. Very hard. Because it won't just be 30% inflation every year, it'll be 30% inflation while a huge amount of the global financial power of the U.S.A shrinks, while tons of public servants have to be fired, while the economy crunches extremely hard, while the banking sector tries desperately to sustain whatever still works and takes its money out of the country from what doesn't, while nobody wants to take responsibility, while...well while everything blows the hell up within a few months. A slow climb of pressure that at its end explodes volcanically. Yes, the current inflation in the West is the SLOW part of the crisis.

Suddenly we'll see Weimar Republic tier of financial consequences. Probably very hostile govt takeover of means of production or savings. And I can picture a bunch of Lindsay Grahams and Janet Yellens or Ben Bernankes take a plane to the Bahamas like they're Sam Bankman Fried when the inevitable crunch from the american people will come.

I always find it funny when americans explain to me that "they have good industries, good skills, agricultural independence, nobody's gonna touch them". Guys, nobody's gonna conquer Colorado. Colorado is going up in flames due to your govt, but it's not getting invaded. However, that global trade control? Massive army? Impossibly long list of bases? Huge administration with innumerable public servants? Subsidising entire nations? Subsidising your industries? Subsidising however many "NGOs" around the world? Predatory industries that could maim and gobble up European industries? Controlling the oil market to your advantage? The ability to run the world? Almost all of them have no idea of how the world has been paying for it.
And now, we're going to see the world get divided between those who pay for an empire shouldering a $33T debt and those who pay for an empire shouldering a $280 billion debt. With inflation showing very quickly who's solvent and who really, really, really isn't.

And the irony of all of this, again, is that Russia didn't even "walk away" from the dollar.
Russia was kicked out. They literally did this to themselves. Unbelievable amounts of sheer incompetence and the hubris of thinking that the world was going to just bow to their monetary craze no matter what.
The actions the U.S Empire took in regards to Ukraine will be the death of the U.S Empire within the next 15 years tops. Possibly less than 10.
Good observations on the chip manufacturing as well. China is doing real work on trying to get around limitations, with varying degrees of success. It won't be just China in the long run, Putin is bent on getting Russia self-reliant too and this will undoubtedly encapsulate semiconductors. They've largely failed in the past to be even remotely competitive (not at all) but you know what comes before success? Failure, usually. Especially with their increased partnership in damn near all things with China now, it'll be easier to achieve at least modest success on this front ... and really, that's all they would need.
The Russians are effectively incredibly behind, somewhere I read that the Elbrus chips are on 150nm, that's 2005 technology, but China is such a ridiculously poorly analysed affair. I still remember large amounts of naive fools in the semiconductor industry assuring me, with great certitudes, that "China isn't even close to EUV" or "China can't do this class of chips", before they all went Surprised Pikachu Face when China announced that it had jerry rigged 7nm class chips for its own industries.

Sure, there are hard limits and many hurdles to overcome, but these people just look at the technicals and ignore how power works. In the case of China, they have a lot of money, and a lot of influence locally in Asia, so hiring away people disgruntled with TSMC or Samsung and getting a local industry kickstart on the back of CCP money was just obvious (Asianometry made excellent videos on that subject, like the "TSMC Renegade Genius" one).
I can easily envision announcements in a few years of 5nm chips, and then the beginning of EUV technology based off more or less stolen ASML technology, with help from a surprising amount of people formerly of ASML or TSMC or Carl Zeiss. All this economic growth is giving the Chinese a lot of options to pay for a lot of nice things, and they will get the nice things. And to boot, the U.S has made the moronic move of placing Russia as the main enemy/danger, when China is unquestionably the real weight. Reminds me of France thinking Mussolini was the danger in 1938 and Hitler was a lesser risk. The incompetence just piles on, might as well get beer and enjoy the West going up in flames.
Oh yeah, welcome to the flogging club. I see you met the locals. Pull up a chair.
Yeah, I think I'll pass. I prefer conversations that do not have me saying something and the response is different grades of base sarcasm, insults and pointless distractions meant to bring back the discussion to within Party Guidelines.
I feel I gave it a honest shake and got nothing of value, I won't be trying again. I'm really not too keen on using angry milifan spit as my shampoo from now on. In the first place, my education is in politics, but I hold an intellectual interest in semiconductors, that's why I opened an account here. Listening to semi professionals is very educational to me, if giving back with geopolitical education gets rejected this strongly, I won't be bothering anyone with trying to make them think against their will.
I don't mind answering genuine questions about geopolitics or discussing events, but I won't be trying to convince anyone anymore. My time is better spent on 5 hours of failures at Slaying the Spire than spending a minute talking to those who have welcomed me so...liquidly.
 
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misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
405
467
136
they lost to 1980 US semi conductors by a really long fucking way, people are insane..........

the actual linch-pin is the EU , if the EU stays aligned with the US then single polar world continues , if they split ( trump etc ) then probably a 5 polar world
US + JAP + AU and friends ( ie the pacific / SEA )
EU
India
Russia
China
Well, if USA would have acted like an adult, then there would have been no danger of EU parting ways. But as it is, especially in light of Biden's team inane comments, it's clear EU must be it's own defender. Which also angers US, but hey, tough luck.
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,848
3,389
136
Well, if USA would have acted like an adult, then there would have been no danger of EU parting ways. But as it is, especially in light of Biden's team inane comments, it's clear EU must be it's own defender. Which also angers US, but hey, tough luck.
From where I sit it's not Biden stopping anything.....

If Biden wins in November then status quo which is very beneficial for the US will be maintained. Gop wins and all bets are off, but the US is a massive export economy. I don't know if Maga tards really understand that.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,448
13,034
136
This is one of the most well-written OpEds I've read in a long time. Thoughtful, concise (yeah, concise, because even though it's a lot of shit it covers a hell of a lot more, even) and smart. Beautiful piece of work, that you didn't even need to come back through and edit the hell out of after the fact.

Yeah, you picked up on something I noticed a while ago myself. We started to sanction Russia and cut them out of the financial systems tied to the West and they ... didn't implode. Uh-oh. Well that's not cool, we fucked up. Russia is putting on a clinic with how to function without the USD. What's our largest global export? The USD. They discovered they can trade without it, courtesy of us basically forcing them to be self-reliant and figuring out how to do so. BRICS countries are increasingly starting to trade with local currencies and / or trying to get there. Our control of the world is starting to slip. It doesn't take much to realize this is what will come to pass, it already is for anyone who can open their eyes or take blinders off.

Will the USD stop being the global reserve overnight? Nope, it won't. I think perhaps your timelines could be a bit hastened as to the overall demise but on the other hand I'm aware I could entirely be wrong. The one thing I do know is that the cat is out of the bag, and we have done something horribly wrong. The road to hell is sometimes paved with good intentions, afterall.

Good observations on the chip manufacturing as well. China is doing real work on trying to get around limitations, with varying degrees of success. It won't be just China in the long run, Putin is bent on getting Russia self-reliant too and this will undoubtedly encapsulate semiconductors. They've largely failed in the past to be even remotely competitive (not at all) but you know what comes before success? Failure, usually. Especially with their increased partnership in damn near all things with China now, it'll be easier to achieve at least modest success on this front ... and really, that's all they would need.

Oh yeah, welcome to the flogging club. I see you met the locals. Pull up a chair.

I only foresee one path to demise of the US and that is from within. Re-elect Trump and give it away.

Anyway, on the bolded, No. For super simple reasons. *NO TALENT*. The academic infrastructure, on all levels, to print modern chips is not available in today's Russia. Look it up for yourself. If anyone is dependent on trade it's fucking Russia. Oil and gas for *everything* else. Get fucked.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,772
29,523
146
This is one of the most well-written OpEds I've read in a long time. Thoughtful, concise (yeah, concise, because even though it's a lot of shit it covers a hell of a lot more, even) and smart. Beautiful piece of work, that you didn't even need to come back through and edit the hell out of after the fact.
Holy fuck

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,556
49,007
136
-Nevermind the fact that having 33 trillion dollars in debt means that countries trust you enough to lend you 33 trillion dollars...

What's that old expression? If you owe the bank $1000 you have a problem, if you owe the bank $33 Trillion dollars the bank has a problem...
Well most of US debt is owed to ourselves so it’s not even that.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,556
49,007
136
Thank you, the compliments are very appreciated. I did edit/reread at least 5 times before posting.

Exactly the problem. There was a simple choice for the world: bow to the USD, with the grip of the American State behind it, risk getting sanctioned, risk american laws being applied to your citizens, risk the ire of the USA when their interests came upon you...or on the other hand, there was the great dark void of losing all the infrastructure (SWIFT, international banking system) and trying to survive alone against the world.
And in a few years, the choice will be "USD and the U.S State and its imperial interests" or "the Russian alternative and its imperial interests".

It is a dramatically worse situation in every possible metric. The unknown is now known. Countries with little for large scale banking infrastructures will eventually just "attach" to Russia like they did to the U.S. If the Russians aren't too stupid they'll merely match 80% of what the Americans offer and that'll be that. Take BRICS(which really means China) general financial backing and that's it, the total monopoly has suddenly become a competitive market where the Americans are so, so, so ridiculously bloated because nobody competed before.

To put it in computer terms, "It's 1982 and IBM suddenly has competition with Compaq". And we all know where that ended.

I'm not enough of a competent economist to give a prediction, but Young Grasshopper and you have pointed out the problem: the USD is under an absurd degree of debt, and that's fine as long as you're the best option, or formerly the only option, to hope that debt repaid.

In the words of Tywin/Tyrion Lannister "if the Iron Bank can't get its money back, it will fund our enemies". Well, there were no enemies or competitors that held any promise. And now, there will be.
The problem isn't to have $33T or any other ridiculous number, the problem is that if your debt is less likely to be repaid than the competition's, you get an increasing amount of weight against you, and as the Law of Capitalism states, the more money you have, the more you can do things which makes you more money. Stands to reason that the N°2 has an uphill battle against the N°1, so the question becomes who's going to become N°1?

And for that, I love using this metaphor:

There's a whisky seller (let's call him Johnny) in the street that's selling his whisky from the biggest, most mean-looking barrel ever. And everyone comes for a glass.
Then someday, the seller sees Ivan and kicks him off the stand, telling him he won't be getting any whisky anymore and tells everyone to not talk to Ivan.
Ivan sets up his vodka stand across the street. The vodka stand is smaller, has a worse table and looks pretty poor, but it does attract a few customers who were also kicked out by Johnny.
And every day, people notice that at Ivan's stand, they seem to get pretty damn drunk. VERY drunk.
So one after the other, depending on how much they like Johnny or how much of Johnny's whisky they already drank, they go and try. And realise immediately that Johnny's whisky was being cut with water. More and more water every single day since years. When you're having just one source, you don't see it, but when you test Ivan's vodka, it's instantly obvious.
And you pay the same money for Johnny's whisky as you pay for Ivan's vodka.

While the american debt is absolutely ridiculous, the real problem is the american inflation. "Cutting with water" means printing money, and throwing the dollar's value down the drain every year. Countries who have $1M and want to buy 1000 barrels of petrol will have to get that $1M through selling things on the intl markets. But when a few years later, they'll want to get the same 1000 barrels, suddenly they need $1.3M, while not having any more dollars than before.

Inflation through money printing is functionally a tax. With taxes, the State takes your money for itself. With inflation, it prints money, injects it into the economy, buys what it wants at full currency price, the money gets shuffled into the economy and loses value as it does. The goods, services and skills in your economy are the same, more paper just means that what used to be bought for 1$ now can be bought with 2$, one from the normal economy, and one that was freshly printed by the State. So prices rise because there's more "currency watering down", because the State's money is pressuring the economy's current money.

When the Dollar is the sole currency that the world uses, the world pays tax through inflation to the United Printers of America. When the American State gets global competition on the dollar (Ivan opens up shop), suddenly everyone will go from "have 1M$, get 300 barrels instead of 1000" to "have 1M[Russian global currency], get 1000 barrels". And that's how you know who's going to become number 1.

The problem will also climb into an absurd death spiral at some point. Because let's say you start with:
- 150 countries use the dollar for their oil
- the U.S state prints enough dollars to create a 30% inflation of monetary mass in the U.S.A, but spreads it across the world
- the dollar makes a 5% shared inflation

A year later, it's:
- 140 countries use petrodollars
- 30% inflation of monetary mass
- dollar makes 5.5% shared inflation

Three years later:
- 100 countries on petrodollar
- 30% inflation of monetary mass
- dollar makes 10% shared inflation

Meanwhile the competition's monetary space has a 3% flat inflation and all the countries that go to them have to deal with comparatively much less stringent consequences of the Russian/Chinese/BRICS monetary policies. Meaning the inflation tax and multiple privileges the US state gave itself from the USD dominance just aren't there. The countries that jump off the USD keep getting richer because they suffer less inflation tax, and keep climbing while the followers of the USD keep suffering harder every year.

When you get to the point that it's the last guard of the American Empire (read: the most wrecked/submissive vassals, say, England) that's going to be stuck there with 30% yearly inflation and an absolutely deadly financial situation, everyone's gonna jump. And it will be hard. Very hard. Because it won't just be 30% inflation every year, it'll be 30% inflation while a huge amount of the global financial power of the U.S.A shrinks, while tons of public servants have to be fired, while the economy crunches extremely hard, while the banking sector tries desperately to sustain whatever still works and takes its money out of the country from what doesn't, while nobody wants to take responsibility, while...well while everything blows the hell up within a few months. A slow climb of pressure that at its end explodes volcanically. Yes, the current inflation in the West is the SLOW part of the crisis.

Suddenly we'll see Weimar Republic tier of financial consequences. Probably very hostile govt takeover of means of production or savings. And I can picture a bunch of Lindsay Grahams and Janet Yellens or Ben Bernankes take a plane to the Bahamas like they're Sam Bankman Fried when the inevitable crunch from the american people will come.

I always find it funny when americans explain to me that "they have good industries, good skills, agricultural independence, nobody's gonna touch them". Guys, nobody's gonna conquer Colorado. Colorado is going up in flames due to your govt, but it's not getting invaded. However, that global trade control? Massive army? Impossibly long list of bases? Huge administration with innumerable public servants? Subsidising entire nations? Subsidising your industries? Subsidising however many "NGOs" around the world? Predatory industries that could maim and gobble up European industries? Controlling the oil market to your advantage? The ability to run the world? Almost all of them have no idea of how the world has been paying for it.
And now, we're going to see the world get divided between those who pay for an empire shouldering a $33T debt and those who pay for an empire shouldering a $280 billion debt. With inflation showing very quickly who's solvent and who really, really, really isn't.

And the irony of all of this, again, is that Russia didn't even "walk away" from the dollar.
Russia was kicked out. They literally did this to themselves. Unbelievable amounts of sheer incompetence and the hubris of thinking that the world was going to just bow to their monetary craze no matter what.
The actions the U.S Empire took in regards to Ukraine will be the death of the U.S Empire within the next 15 years tops. Possibly less than 10.

The Russians are effectively incredibly behind, somewhere I read that the Elbrus chips are on 150nm, that's 2005 technology, but China is such a ridiculously poorly analysed affair. I still remember large amounts of naive fools in the semiconductor industry assuring me, with great certitudes, that "China isn't even close to EUV" or "China can't do this class of chips", before they all went Surprised Pikachu Face when China announced that it had jerry rigged 7nm class chips for its own industries.

Sure, there are hard limits and many hurdles to overcome, but these people just look at the technicals and ignore how power works. In the case of China, they have a lot of money, and a lot of influence locally in Asia, so hiring away people disgruntled with TSMC or Samsung and getting a local industry kickstart on the back of CCP money was just obvious (Asianometry made excellent videos on that subject, like the "TSMC Renegade Genius" one).
I can easily envision announcements in a few years of 5nm chips, and then the beginning of EUV technology based off more or less stolen ASML technology, with help from a surprising amount of people formerly of ASML or TSMC or Carl Zeiss. All this economic growth is giving the Chinese a lot of options to pay for a lot of nice things, and they will get the nice things. And to boot, the U.S has made the moronic move of placing Russia as the main enemy/danger, when China is unquestionably the real weight. Reminds me of France thinking Mussolini was the danger in 1938 and Hitler was a lesser risk. The incompetence just piles on, might as well get beer and enjoy the West going up in flames.

Yeah, I think I'll pass. I prefer conversations that do not have me saying something and the response is different grades of base sarcasm, insults and pointless distractions meant to bring back the discussion to within Party Guidelines.
I feel I gave it a honest shake and got nothing of value, I won't be trying again. I'm really not too keen on using angry milifan spit as my shampoo from now on. In the first place, my education is in politics, but I hold an intellectual interest in semiconductors, that's why I opened an account here. Listening to semi professionals is very educational to me, if giving back with geopolitical education gets rejected this strongly, I won't be bothering anyone with trying to make them think against their will.
I don't mind answering genuine questions about geopolitics or discussing events, but I won't be trying to convince anyone anymore. My time is better spent on 5 hours of failures at Slaying the Spire than spending a minute talking to those who have welcomed me so...liquidly.
‘I won’t be wasting my time here’

Insert multiple walls of text.

You would think with the time you spent writing this you could have at least addressed the massive evidence of Russian war crimes you appeared to call propaganda. Any chance of that?
 

misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
405
467
136
From where I sit it's not Biden stopping anything.....

If Biden wins in November then status quo which is very beneficial for the US will be maintained. Gop wins and all bets are off, but the US is a massive export economy. I don't know if Maga tards really understand that.
Yeah, he is. He gave Israel a bunch of armament for so long, without Moses Mike's input. He could have done a lot more, a lot faster. Also, yesterday's comments from sec. Austin are a disgrace. Also Wallander, who said refinaries are civil targets. So... Is the Biden admin insane?

 
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