Part of this article, fairly balanced and makes notes of both Ukrainian and Russian weaknesses:
- Zelensky stated in an interview with PBS News Hour, which aired on April 15, that Ukrainian forces continue to lack enough air defense systems to protect Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Zelensky noted that Ukrainian forces were only able to destroy the first seven of the 11 Russian missiles launched against the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) on April 11 before running out of air defense missiles, allowing the remaining four missiles to destroy the plant
- Zelensky also expressed frustration with the differential US response to strikes against Ukraine and Israel and stated that the United States and the West are continuing to limit military aid out of the false belief that such self-restraint will prevent further Russian aggression
- Zelensky reported that Ukrainian forces currently suffer from a 1-to-10 artillery shell disadvantage and that this artillery ammunition disadvantage allows Russian forces to push Ukrainian forces back each day. ISW continues to assess that continued US delays in security assistance to Ukraine limit Ukrainian forces’ ability to conduct effective defensive operations while giving Russian forces flexibility in conducting offensive operations — a dynamic that can lead to compounding and non-linear opportunities for Russian forces to make operationally significant gains in the future
- The new mobilization law, which the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada adopted on April 11, lowers the Ukrainian draft age from 27 to 25 years of age, cancels the status of “limited suitability” for military service, and requires citizens living abroad to register for military service in Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials have emphasized the exigency of a new Ukrainian mobilization law to address Ukraine’s manpower shortages that, together with the shortages of Western aid, are making Ukrainian defense on critical areas of the front extremely difficult
- Ukraine’s ability to defend throughout the theater and eventually contest Russia’s battlefield initiative is contingent on Ukraine’s ability to restore existing units and create new units, as well as on the provision of US military assistance to existing and new units
- Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are using smaller groups to conduct assaults and are reportedly suffering from morale issues, but Russian attacks are unlikely to culminate in the near term despite these challenges because of Ukrainian materiel shortages.
- Muzychuk stated that Russian forces are also using small vehicles without protection to approach Ukrainian positions quickly and set conditions for a subsequent Russian infantry group to secure these positions. Muzychuk reported that Ukrainian drones destroyed about 70 percent of Russian armored vehicles last week, although it is unclear if Muzychuk is claiming that Ukrainian drones actually destroyed armored vehicles or temporarily rendered them hors de combat
- Russian forces previously used mass infantry-led frontal assaults in their seizure of Bakhmut and in the beginning of the Russian effort to seize Avdiivka, but Russian forces appear to have shifted to using smaller infantry groups recently to conduct ground attacks.[10] Russian sources have also recently indicated that Russian forces suffered from exhaustion and lacked rotations but had to continue to fight on new lines west of Avdiivka following Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2024
www.criticalthreats.org