So why did Hillary lose?

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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,290
16,618
136
What do you think the over/under on how long it will take for folks like ivwshane and Jhhnn to accept that Clinton was a terrible and hugely disliked candidate that was a bad choice to run? I bet Jhhnn goes to his grave thinking Hillary was great, and ivwshane will admit it once the next set of nominees is in play and he can focus on how great they are instead.

I've said she was a terrible politician back in 2015. That doesn't mean she wasn't the most qualified.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/lesli...clintons-accomplishments-speak-for-themselves

Now to compare and contrast, pull up trumps record, or bush's.
If I can say anything about Hilary it's that she's a horrible politician and by that I mean that she sucks at communicating with voters and hyping herself up. She's the exact opposite of trump (as a politician).

As an aside both Hillary's and trump's unfavorable ratings were pretty flat this whole election cycle.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,986
1,388
126
More reasons of why HC lost (beside what already discussed) -

1) She was unable to keep the votes that went to BO last time.
2) Latinos/Hispanics did not vote for her as much as she hoped (29% or so voted for DT).
3) Turnout (overall) was lower for HC than for BO last time.
4) Rural whites (with no college degree) turned out in droves to vote for DT (the most important criteria for DT victory).
5) Not enough women votes (that HC was counting on from DT stupid comments on that tape/Kelly comments/etc.).
 

lopri

Elite Member
Jul 27, 2002
13,310
687
126
Trump's racial messaging may have fired up turnout among his base, or perhaps not. If you listened to Trump supporters, they talked more about despising Clinton than about any of Trump's messaging. Hatred of Clinton could also have increased their turnout. I support this theory because if racial resentment was what pivoted this by firing up the turnout on the right, you'd think a black man running would have done the same, but this turnout among rural whites was lower when Obama ran. Why were the bigots fired up enough to defeat Clinton in 2016 but not enough to defeat an actual black candidate in 2008 or 2012?
?? You ask a question, which is answered in the beginning of the paragraph, at the end of the same paragraph.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,677
30,997
146
Klein: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/rise-of-the-davos-class-sealed-americas-fate

Frank: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ld-trump-white-house-hillary-clinton-liberals

Greenwald: https://theintercept.com/2016/11/09...gerous-refusal-to-learn-the-lesson-of-brexit/

I hope Democrats learn the right lesson from this election. I fear they won't. Smarter liberals such as the three writers above understand, but most establishment Democrats and the morons in this forum are blaming racists, misogynists, Bernie, 3rd parties, and everyone but themselves.

The Democrats should have beaten Trump easily, but the it's a party of fools.

Good stuff.

After the shock and anger and disgust of Tuesday night, I've actually come around to being quite proud of and happy for these people that totally kicked us in our collective asses. I don't really know why, other than it shows that democracy pretty much works.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/nov/03/trump-supporters-us-elections

My greatest fear now is what happens to those outside this country--a situation that so few really do appreciate--because I think this country will (eventually) weather the potential contraction of a Trump presidency and, hopefully, come out all the better for it. But that isn't much solace for those that absolutely depend on NATO and a USA that both supports and validates this cause, without petty and nonsensical threats, and gives no quarter to those that threaten its mission and the sovereign nations that it protects.

Ignoring this reality is the same as ignoring the real pain and anger of the people living in these devastated communities that righteously punished the elites by giving this world Trump. Real people outside, and many inside this country, naturalized citizens or 1st and 2nd generation, have very real families whose lives depend on this alliance. My hope is that Trump was just being the standard PoS clown by blustering over issues that so few of us supporters would care to appreciate. He hasn't once shown the character, the curiosity, the interest in being a real president--so I hope that was indeed "just the show" that his diehards promised that it was.
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
Here's a clue idiot: Republican turnout was less than it was in 2012, there was no energizing of Republicans because of Democrats hate. Democrats, like always, simply didn't show up.

I think that's one of the core points: Republican turnout was less than it was in 2012 because Trump was a terrible candidate. Had the dems not put up an even worse one, they would have taken Trump out behind the shed for a whoopin.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,290
16,618
136
Close.


See bolded
More reasons of why HC lost (beside what already discussed) -

1) She was unable to keep the votes that went to BO last time. true
2) Latinos/Hispanics did not vote for her as much as she hoped (29% or so voted for DT). False, the Latino vote was up.
3) Turnout (overall) was lower for HC than for BO last time. True
4) Rural whites (with no college degree) turned out in droves to vote for DT (the most important criteria for DT victory). No. The turnout was about the same the difference was the margin, Hillary lost more percentage wise.
5) Not enough women votes (that HC was counting on from DT stupid comments on that tape/Kelly comments/etc.). True. I think I read trump actually improved the margin.
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
Nice analysis and we got a major fucking epiphany on how and why NOT to communicate with emails or on a private server.

When you see all the email leaks, instead of thinking "damnit, why did we use emails!", the focus should be on "damn, what a bunch of corrupt crooked crap going on within the DNC, the media and the clinton organization". How the crooked mess got revealed is a secondary issue.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,290
16,618
136
I think that's one of the core points: Republican turnout was less than it was in 2012 because Trump was a terrible candidate. Had the dems not put up an even worse one, they would have taken Trump out behind the shed for a whoopin.

Again, that's assuming people actually came out and voted. I'm not sure the case is as cut and dry as you think. Would the Clinton supporters have come out for Bernie if he had won? Considering she got way many more votes than him he would have needed all of them to show up.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,499
54,302
136
From what you just said wouldn't that technique still overweight the opinion of that one group that was over sampled? Assuming that group has an opinion that is drastically different from all other groups involved?

No. As I mentioned the weight of each individual in the oversampled group is decreased proportional to the oversample.

For example if you have a poll of 100 people and your population is half women you would normally look for a sample that had 50 women, right? In this case everyone's response has the same weight. Now say for whatever reason you want to oversample women and poll 100 instead of 50, bringing your total sample up to 150. In this case you weight each individual woman's response half as much so the 100 women become 50 women by weight in the sample. No net outcome on the results.

A few weeks ago right wing media like zerohedge tried to make oversampling a big deal because it was in one of Podesta's emails. What it ended up showing was how incompetent zerohedge is.
 

GagHalfrunt

Lifer
Apr 19, 2001
25,284
1,997
126
Any reasonable candidate would have taken Trump behind the shed. He's disliked by the vast majority of the population, had no real political qualifications, he has tons of baggage, embarrassing skeletons in his closet, he fought against his own party, said offensive things about several groups, had no "ground game", no campaign to speak of, no giant war chest of big donor contributions, had to battle the full might of the lefty media and the leftist social media empires (facebook, google, twitter etc). He went up against the queen, the anointed one, her majesty in waiting for 8 years for her rightful crown....... and yet he won. You'd think that would be reason for for some soul searching to say "what went wrong here, what did we do wrong", but instead is just leading to the same tired blathering: must have been racists, misogynists, hatemongers etc etc.

I think it's terrific

Amen. And Amen. And Amen yet again.

The dems anointed Hilary as their chosen one before the election started. They rigged the primary process to favor Hilary and her fund-raising machine and they even got their dream opponent. They got to run against Trump, a guy hated by many republicans and feared by almost anyone with a brain. How could they possibly lose? And yet they did.

And now it's the fault of rural voters. And it's the fault of Islam bashing. And it's the fault of the electoral college. And it's the fault of women. And it's the fault of the poor. And it's the fault of the blacks and the media and staffers who leaked emails and yada yada yada.

Dems, grow a brain. You saddled the wrong pony. As afraid of Trump as most reasonable people are, they still hated Hilary even more. Get that through your heads. It wasn't the message or the changing face of liberalism, it's Hilary. Moderate, rational Republicans were desperate to jump the fence here. The dems could have lined up women, minorities, the poor, the undecideds, the independents and the moderates into one unstoppable juggernaut to rally against Trump because he's really that bad. And you failed because Hilary is even worse. The women didn't come out to vote for her. The minorities didn't come out to vote for her. The moderates and independents didn't come out to vote for her. No fence-sitting republicans would vote for her. The democrats lost because you picked the only candidate on Earth that could not beat Trump. All you had to do was not shoot yourself in the foot and not put up a person that makes people think "geesh, maybe Trump isn't so bad after all" and you failed. You failed. Not the process, the the EC and not rural redneck voters. The dem powers that be failed when they decided to ram Hilary down everybodys throats. The end.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,290
16,618
136
When you see all the email leaks, instead of thinking "damnit, why did we use emails!", the focus should be on "damn, what a bunch of corrupt crooked crap going on within the DNC, the media and the clinton organization". How the crooked mess got revealed is a secondary issue.

You have simply bought into the spin, there was nothing corrupt or crooked about them.
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
Again, that's assuming people actually came out and voted. I'm not sure the case is as cut and dry as you think. Would the Clinton supporters have come out for Bernie if he had won? Considering she got way many more votes than him he would have needed all of them to show up.

No, I personally think Bernie would have gone down in even bigger flames because he was fatally flawed as a candidate as well. illary didn't lose because there was some massive wave of Trump support. She lost because the gop held their collective noses and voted for Trump even though they don't like him (based on the exit polls), and many democrats stayed home instead of voting for her because she's such a dirtbag. She's lucky Trump was so terrible, because that helped drive many people to vote for her just to try and prevent a Trump presidency, otherwise her numbers would have been even lower.
 

rudder

Lifer
Nov 9, 2000
19,441
86
91
Here is why Hillary lost plain and simple:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

The democrats let Hillary and Debbie Wasserman Schultz replace a popular anti-establishment candidate with someone whose unfavorability rating was up there with Trump's. And even after the truth came out.... the media, liberals, and Bernie did nothing!

Look at all the pre-election polls asking who would win Trump or Sanders if they went head to head.

But my all means burn down Oakland.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,290
16,618
136
No, I personally think Bernie would have gone down in even bigger flames because he was fatally flawed as a candidate as well. illary didn't lose because there was some massive wave of Trump support. She lost because the gop held their collective noses and voted for Trump even though they don't like him (based on the exit polls), and many democrats stayed home instead of voting for her because she's such a dirtbag. She's lucky Trump was so terrible, because that helped drive many people to vote for her just to try and prevent a Trump presidency, otherwise her numbers would have been even lower.

Your personal feelings on why people stayed home aside, we are essentially saying the same thing.
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
101
Dems, grow a brain. You saddled the wrong pony. As afraid of Trump as most reasonable people are, they still hated Hilary even more. Get that through your heads. It wasn't the message or the changing face of liberalism, it's Hilary. Moderate, rational Republicans were desperate to jump the fence here. The dems could have lined up women, minorities, the poor, the undecideds, the independents and the moderates into one unstoppable juggernaut to rally against Trump because he's really that bad. And you failed because Hilary is even worse. The women didn't come out to vote for her. The minorities didn't come out to vote for her. The moderates and independents didn't come out to vote for her. No fence-sitting republicans would vote for her. The democrats lost because you picked the only candidate on Earth that could not beat Trump. All you had to do was not shoot yourself in the foot and not put up a person that makes people think "geesh, maybe Trump isn't so bad after all" and you failed. You failed. Not the process, the the EC and not rural redneck voters. The dem powers that be failed when they decided to ram Hilary down everybodys throats. The end.

... absolutely spot on, and you know what the irony is? You can flip that entire post around, and had she won instead of Trump, it would be just as true. From the (R) perspective, you had a golden opportunity. You have a dem candidate with all the charm of a rattlesnake who is perceived by the public to be a chronic liar. There are many within the democrat party that would happily jump the fence if you offer a good alternative. You have every opportunity to get a good candidate in there and win the election, hands down..... and instead, you elect the least liked candidate in modern campaign history, with tons of baggage who can't help himself but to say stupid things on twitter. You rallied the troops among the dems even though they were not at all enthusiastic about their candidate. Nice job.

So basically, both parties completely botched it, but one had to win and it happened to be Trump.
 
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shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
Here is why Hillary lost plain and simple:
...

The democrats let Hillary and Debbie Wasserman Schultz replace a popular anti-establishment candidate with someone whose unfavorability rating was up there with Trump's. And even after the truth came out.... the media, liberals, and Bernie did nothing!

Exactly. Poltics is like darwinism, survival of the fittest. That's the purpose of a primary, to put your strongest candidate forward.

By subverting their primary, they put a weak candidate forward.

DNC has a long way to go to purge. Usually that's done by challenging corrupt incumbents and electing someone to the left. 2018 should be interesting.

Or, they just keep doing things the same old way.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,677
30,997
146
That 2nd article in the guardian nailed it. To the screaming in Republican's faces...

No they haven't learned, and they're not going to learn. The democrats are so hopelessly corrupted by the Clinton machine that spent a decade stacking the deck it'll take years to clean it up.
.

Great analysis. It reminds me of how everyone was certain that the republicans would never again win the whitehouse after 2012 unless they fix their massive demographic and message issues. I don't think you read the 3rd article, did you?
 

lopri

Elite Member
Jul 27, 2002
13,310
687
126
Exactly. Poltics is like darwinism, survival of the fittest. That's the purpose of a primary, to put your strongest candidate forward.

By subverting their primary, they put a weak candidate forward.
How did they subvert their primary? No need to reply if the answer is "Superdelegates."
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,986
1,388
126
Close.


See bolded

29% Latinos voted for DT, everyone expect DT to get single digit (9% or less) support or even worse from Latinos (in range with blacks) from that "they are rapists" and other stupid comments.ie, "more" Latinos votes went for DT instead of HC. So true. (Personally, I was very surprise about the high number for DT from Latinos). IIRC, the last time the GOP received that much votes from Latinos, it was the young Bush (correct me if I am not correct on this part).

More white males with no college voted for DT than HC. Matter of fact, those rural votes were the ones that canceled out the urban votes for HC at critical swing/toss up states and moved those typical blue states to red. So true.

Another thing, turn out/number of voters for Democrats were less than last time (overall). Maybe she was not charming enough/too cold/whatever the reason was, not enough people had the fire in the belly to vote for her as they were with BO.
 
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bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
Great analysis. It reminds me of how everyone was certain that the republicans would never again win the whitehouse after 2012 unless they fix their massive demographic and message issues. I don't think you read the 3rd article, did you?

I read the 3rd article, fantastic summary. The article made some of the same arguments that I have been making over the past few months but far more eloquently. Damn Michael Moore called it. Talk about having your finger on the pulse of blue collar America. He correctly called the election and he correctly identified the demographic that would swing it.... rural whites who previously voted for Obama! I love the point that the article made that if these voters were racist bigots why did they vote for Obama.
 
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NostaSeronx

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2011
3,808
1,289
136
I love the point that the article made that if these voters were racist bigots why did they vote for Obama.
Validation that America has changed racially-unbiased when in fact it hasn't changed all that much. The only problem area was the south, everywhere else blacks and whites were segregated by home owner associations. If we elect a black president, we then could remove legislature that removed segregation as it isn't needed anymore. We have & had a black president goal achieved, job done, now we can segregate again. Thus, America is finally great again.
 
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bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
Validation that America has changed racially-unbiased when in fact it hasn't changed all that much. The only problem area was the south, everywhere else blacks and whites were segregated by home owner associations. If we elect a black president, we then could remove legislature that removed segregation as it isn't needed anymore. We have a black president goal achieved, job done, now we can segregate again.

I suggest that you read the article and comment on it. Is the article right or wrong?

People often talk about “racism/sexism/xenophobia” vs. “economic suffering” as if they are totally distinct dichotomies. Of course there are substantial elements of both in Trump’s voting base, but the two categories are inextricably linked: The more economic suffering people endure, the angrier and more bitter they get, the easier it is to direct their anger to scapegoats. Economic suffering often fuels ugly bigotry. It is true that many Trump voters are relatively well-off and many of the nation’s poorest voted for Clinton, but, as Michael Moore quite presciently warned, those portions of the country that have been most ravaged by free trade orgies and globalism — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa — were filled with rage and “see [Trump] as a chance to be the human Molotov cocktail that they’d like to throw into the system to blow it up.” Those are the places that were decisive in Trump’s victory. As the Washington Examiner’s Tim Carney put it:

Low-income rural white voters in Pa. voted for Obama in 2008 and then Trump in 2016, and your explanation is white supremacy? Interesting.

— Tim Carney (@TPCarney) November 9, 2016

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/09...gerous-refusal-to-learn-the-lesson-of-brexit/
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,944
24,262
136
Hillary lost because she had too much baggage spanning a time frame of many years, regardless that a lot of it was primarily a smear campaign.

No matter how much this election was about change to some, to elect a non-politician, a career politician like Biden would have taken Trump down.
 

Kazukian

Platinum Member
Aug 8, 2016
2,034
650
91
Good stuff.

After the shock and anger and disgust of Tuesday night, I've actually come around to being quite proud of and happy for these people that totally kicked us in our collective asses. I don't really know why, other than it shows that democracy pretty much works.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/nov/03/trump-supporters-us-elections

My greatest fear now is what happens to those outside this country--a situation that so few really do appreciate--because I think this country will (eventually) weather the potential contraction of a Trump presidency and, hopefully, come out all the better for it. But that isn't much solace for those that absolutely depend on NATO and a USA that both supports and validates this cause, without petty and nonsensical threats, and gives no quarter to those that threaten its mission and the sovereign nations that it protects.

Ignoring this reality is the same as ignoring the real pain and anger of the people living in these devastated communities that righteously punished the elites by giving this world Trump. Real people outside, and many inside this country, naturalized citizens or 1st and 2nd generation, have very real families whose lives depend on this alliance. My hope is that Trump was just being the standard PoS clown by blustering over issues that so few of us supporters would care to appreciate. He hasn't once shown the character, the curiosity, the interest in being a real president--so I hope that was indeed "just the show" that his diehards promised that it was.

#3 was really good, and the last paragraph blew me away:

"It was only a matter of time before instability, backlash, and disruption resulted. Both Brexit and Trump unmistakably signal its arrival. The only question is whether those two cataclysmic events will be the peak of this process, or just the beginning. And that, in turn, will be determined by whether their crucial lessons are learned — truly internalized — or ignored in favor of self-exonerating campaigns to blame everyone else."
 

NostaSeronx

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2011
3,808
1,289
136
Is the article right or wrong?
I think the article is wrong.

The campaign of Donald John Trump was built upon Misogyny, Racism, Anti-semiticism, Cronyism, Lying... it was all ignored by would you kindly make america great again?
 
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