Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[Heartbreaker]

Rumors are always fun whenever they first suggest something new will happen and later on suggest that that has been cancelled again.

Yeah.

Rumor Monger clickbait A: Thing will happen.
Rumor Monger clickbait B: Thing is proving challenging.
Rumor Monger clickbait C: Thing failed and is cancelled.

Real world: Nothing.

Rumor Monger: That's three 100% correct rumors for us...

 

[jpiniero]

Cancelling N32 makes a ton of sense if they didn't get any mobile OEM deals and they don't think they can justify a high enough price to release it on desktop.

 

[leoneazzurro]

Cancelling N32 makes a ton of sense if they didn't get any mobile OEM deals and they don't think they can justify a high enough price to release it on desktop.

And this thing is not suggested anywhere, not even in this BS "rumor"...

 

[insertcarehere]

Given the horrific S/N ratio of AMD leakers this generation. It's just as likely that RDNA3's problems aren't just "bugs" that can be fixed through a refresh, and that AMD would rather work on its successor rather than spend good R&D after bad.

 

[Kepler_L2]

Cancelling N32 makes a ton of sense if they didn't get any mobile OEM deals and they don't think they can justify a high enough price to release it on desktop.

N32 isn't cancelled.

 

[leoneazzurro]

Some are for sure not bugs, like the dual issue needing quite some work in the drivers for squeezing some more performance, frankly it was even expected. Clock speeds not up the targets, if real, can or cannot be solved by a respin, it depends on how serious is the issue, because in some cases optimization/addition of metal layers and such can do maybe not miracles but a lot, in some other cases it does not work. Other bugs that were reported do not seem to affect performance in a substantial way.

 

[Kaluan]

Cancelling N32 makes a ton of sense if they didn't get any mobile OEM deals and they don't think they can justify a high enough price to release it on desktop.

No it makes exactly 0 sense, GPU cycles INCLUDING MOBILE are 2 years. So what? They're not gonna have a high end mobile solution 2 CES/laptop cycles in a row just because they couldn't get theirs in on time for the first? Nah.

Not to mention, even taking the rumourmill as fact... it says nothing about canceling N32 lol
So that's a weird reach imo

 

[Stuka87]

Cancelling N32 makes a ton of sense if they didn't get any mobile OEM deals and they don't think they can justify a high enough price to release it on desktop.

The article literally says:

Additionally, the midrange Navi 33 and Navi 32 appear unaffected as the cards are on the way.

Why create a rumor that not even the rumors sites are reporting? Especially when it makes zero sense.

 

[jpiniero]

No it makes exactly 0 sense, GPU cycles INCLUDING MOBILE are 2 years. So what? They're not gonna have a high end mobile solution 2 CES/laptop cycles in a row just because they couldn't get theirs in on time for the first? Nah.

The idea is that OEMs are seeing reduced demand overall and just decide to roll with nVidia in higher end mobile. And then AMD just decides to not bother finishing the fixes if they aren't going to get any mobile deals.

It is a stretch, so we'll see how it plays out.

 

[MrTeal]

Intel and AMD have tried this concept before already. Kaby Lake-G was an APU with 1060 max-q level performance and launched in early 2018, with both NUCs and laptops, it's still technically the fastest IGP today. Neither party (especially AMD) pursued this concept any further, most likely for good reason.

Its all well and good saying that a big gaming-focused APU is great for consumers when ultimately, not enough of said consumers purchase said big gaming-focused APU at pricing which would makes sense for AMD/Intel to develop such a product.

Yeah, it was unfortunate. There was no real push from any OEMs for that kind of solution, so it never really gained traction among the consumers that would actually benefit from something like that. Unless there's marketing behind it and a consumer can see it on the front page of Dell or Lenovo's website, it won't take off.

I'm probably a bit colored by my strong desire to be able to jailbreak a PS5 or Series X and run Linux on it though, or even better Windows. Series X running Windows would be a great value for office use and PC gaming, even if it was a couple hundred dollar premium over the console version.

 

[Stuka87]

The idea is that OEMs are seeing reduced demand overall and just decide to roll with nVidia in higher end mobile. And then AMD just decides to not bother finishing the fixes if they aren't going to get any mobile deals.

It is a stretch, so we'll see how it plays out.

N32 didn't need any fixes. Its fine as is.

 

[biostud]

N32 didn't need any fixes. Its fine as is.

Only one problem. It is nowhere to be bought, and I don't think it is because AMD has a ton of N21 cards in stock, they want to get rid of first....

So when do you think it will be available, and will it be soon enough so that the buyers haven't given up and bought nVidia instead?

 

[leoneazzurro]

I think the most reliable (?) rumors pointed for a Q2/Q3 release for N32

 

[jpiniero]

N32 didn't need any fixes. Its fine as is.

So why didn't they announce any mobile SKUs then?

 

[leoneazzurro]

So why didn't they announce any mobile SKUs then?

Because it is not ready yet and no one told that it had to be ready before Q2/Q3? N32 would address quite a small part of the market anyway (large and expensive gaming laptops). N33 is the mainstream part, and the one which would sell more anyway.

 

[biostud]

Because it is not ready yet and no one told that it had to be ready before Q2/Q3? N32 would address quite a small part of the market anyway (large and expensive gaming laptops). N33 is the mainstream part, and the one which would sell more anyway.

Huh, I would think the $500-700 desktop market was quite large, but I guess +$800 is where the market is heading?

 

[Kronos1996]

An N7/N6 wafer is a lot more than 6 grand. It's closer to like 10-11.

Because of the wafer price hikes, N33 is likely more expensive than N23 was when it launched.

I used the best estimate I could find. Industry sources in the know have disputed the claims of 7nm wafers costing $10K as being way too high. Maybe in the early days but its been three years and 6nm is even cheaper to make.

 

[Stuka87]

Only one problem. It is nowhere to be bought, and I don't think it is because AMD has a ton of N21 cards in stock, they want to get rid of first....

So when do you think it will be available, and will it be soon enough so that the buyers haven't given up and bought nVidia instead?

🤷‍♂️

Historically the release date of the 9 and 8 series parts are all over the place. Sometimes they are together, sometimes they are spread apart. We will just have to wait and see. It would be really odd for them to just not have mid range cards though.

 

[blckgrffn]

Huh, I would think the $500-700 desktop market was quite large, but I guess +$800 is where the market is heading?

For gaming PCs? It seems like for years most of what you see from either the gaming OEMs or the Legion/Alienware&XPS/Omen desktops started at around $1K and went up from there. I don't think the cheap PC with dedicated GPUs that require more than ~150W market has been that much of a thing.

That's been the domain of 1650 and 1660 and RX 5500/6500 type cards for quite a while.

This has been a reason why I've been able to build PCs using used parts and sell them for basically at cost in the $400-$600 price rang for years, IMO. It's a hobby, not a great time investment

 

[biostud]

🤷‍♂️

Historically the release date of the 9 and 8 series parts are all over the place. Sometimes they are together, sometimes they are spread apart. We will just have to wait and see. It would be really odd for them to just not have mid range cards though.

On one hans you can speculate that everything is fine, but it seems pretty weird not to have a product for a large part of your market segment. I do not think they planned not to have N32 ready Q1 ‘23.

 

[PJVol]

I agree, I just wonder why we know so little about N32...

Maybe respin? RGT rumours point to the computex announcement, but that doesn't change the overall feeling of f**ed up launch.
My personal feeling is like rdna3 has some serious design issue.

 

[biostud]

Maybe respin? RGT rumours point to the computex announcement, but that doesn't change the overall feeling of f**ed up launch.
My personal feeling is like rdna3 has some serious design issue.

It was the same reason why I gave up on N32, and bought a 6800xt.

 

[Kaluan]

So why didn't they announce any mobile SKUs then?

Well, mobie N33 will be out in the wild in a matter of weeks (refreshed 2022 chasis, drop-in upgrade compatible with mobile N23 AFAIK, so Rembrandt-R or various Intel laptops). Where as N32 is still many months away (allegedly). Which means not exactly something AMD would like to announce so far in advance.

There's other tech expos/shows in the meanwhile where they can announce it.

Or hell, still hoping there's a part 2 to "together we advance_gaming" 😅

Edit: Not exactly N32, but review for this laptop are what I'm most looking forward to (7940HS & 7700S @ up to 120W(!) )

Asus TUF Gaming A16 Advantage Edition FA617 - AMD power

In this article, we're discussing the single AMD Advantage laptop in the 2023 Asus lineup, the Asus TUF Gaming A16 series.

www.ultrabookreview.com

 

[leoneazzurro]

Huh, I would think the $500-700 desktop market was quite large, but I guess +$800 is where the market is heading?

I meant for laptops, mobile N32 is aimed at very expensive systems (just look at the announced prices for the new XMG line starting in preorder on Feb 1st). N33 is where most of the money is, in terms of units to be sold. N32 has its market on desktop, but AMD is way more focused on mobile for a while.

 

[Zepp]

Intel and AMD have tried this concept before already. Kaby Lake-G was an APU with 1060 max-q level performance and launched in early 2018, with both NUCs and laptops, it's still technically the fastest IGP today. Neither party (especially AMD) pursued this concept any further, most likely for good reason.

I never considered that the same thing as an 'APU' since it was 2 entirely separate chips from intel and amd talking together on an EMIB or whatever it was called with dedicated memory. It was more like a new design idea for laptop discrete GPU's than an iGPU.

Its all well and good saying that a big gaming-focused APU is great for consumers when ultimately, not enough of said consumers purchase said big gaming-focused APU at pricing which would makes sense for AMD/Intel to develop such a product.

Yes, this has always been the problem of APU's that AMD understood despite a vocal minority in the communities. Every few months on reddit there would be a "Hey, why doesn't AMD make an APU with HBM attached or dedicated GDDR? man what a home run that would be!!" .... it's more of a novalty fascination with people than a compelling alternative to buying a PC with separate CPU & GPU. An APU locks your cpu/gpu choice together and requires the fastest system RAM possible to get the best performance which will still fall short of mid range dGPUs?