Speculation: Spring refresh for Ryzen

[Vattila]

As I've posted elsewhere, I think AMD fell short of their frequency targets for the Ryzen 3000 series. A later launch than expected, statements relating to frequency challenges, Max Boost redefinition, boost issues, 3900X shortages, and now the 3950X delay from September to November, do all corroborate this. I guess they aimed for 5 GHz, but fell ~8% short.

However, TSMC is firing on all cylinders. Amongst a number of process roadmap announcements, they now offer N7P as a refinement of their N7 process on which the Zen 2 chiplet is built. N7P is compatible with N7 design rules, so it should provide a fairly simple and cost-effective opportunity to optimise existing designs.

With that in mind, is there a chance that AMD will do a spring refresh based on a faster stepping of the CPU chiplet?

 

[DisEnchantment]

"Zen 3 launches later this year" - could mean EPYC or Ryzen. She doesn't clarify.

It is an official presentation to get Zen3 Ryzen processors in 2020. It does not get more official than this.

 

[darkswordsman17]

What's the purpose of this release? Sounds like a money grab to me or is Zen 3 much later than expected? Can't see them releasing Zen3 on desktop in 2020 with this refresh.

Well, yeah, basically every product sold is a "money grab" so sure. Its just a little refresh for some reason. Seems meh to me (but perhaps enthusiasts will find it more efficient or something?). Honestly, my guess is that the desktop APUs got delayed a bit, so they decided to find some way to drum up a bit of press and give people a reason to look at Zen 2, combined with 550 boards coming out finally.

 

[DrMrLordX]

What's the purpose of this release? Sounds like a money grab to me or is Zen 3 much later than expected? Can't see them releasing Zen3 on desktop in 2020 with this refresh.

I guess they had some binned dice and wanted to pull an Intel? On the plus side, if the release is this "meh" then they're really going to need to launch Zen3/Ryzen 4000 this year to stay relevant.

 

[jpiniero]

If so then why do the 3900XT?

You could say that the XT was a backup plan in case there was indeed delays with Matisse just to have something new and/or they needed to combat Comet Lake. But since Intel is so short, Comet Lake almost doesn't matter at this point and they are using the XT to effectively raise prices and delayed the 8 core and less Matisse to push people to buy the 12. Intel wasn't ever going to have anything to combat the 16 core so there wasn't going to be a need to have a 16 core update.

 

[Kenmitch]

You could say that the XT was a backup plan in case there was indeed delays with Matisse just to have something new and/or they needed to combat Comet Lake. But since Intel is so short, Comet Lake almost doesn't matter at this point and they are using the XT to effectively raise prices and delayed the 8 core and less Matisse to push people to buy the 12. Intel wasn't ever going to have anything to combat the 16 core so there wasn't going to be a need to have a 16 core update.

My monies on AMD has a better grasp on their future offerings than we do. I see no reason to jump to conclusions, unless one wants to start the FUD train.

 

[Kenmitch]

I guess they had some binned dice and wanted to pull an Intel? On the plus side, if the release is this "meh" then they're really going to need to launch Zen3/Ryzen 4000 this year to stay relevant.

I guess the important thing to remember is Lisa is no dummy. I'd imagine she's really good at playing chess.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I guess the important thing to remember is Lisa is no dummy. I'd imagine she's really good at playing chess.

Probably. Expect higher prices for Vermeer.

 

[Kenmitch]

Probably. Expect higher prices for Vermeer.

Price is relative to performance....Oops forgot that only applies to Intel and Nvidia....What was I thinking!

 

[DrMrLordX]

Price is relative to performance....Oops forgot that only applies to Intel and Nvidia....What was I thinking!

Relative to performance and generation. Or rather, it should be. AMD set a price point for their top-end desktop CPU of 2017, and stuck to it with the top-end desktop CPU they launched in July 2019 (they later eclipsed that price point with the 3950x the same year). In keeping with their own pricing policies, the 4900X should be $499. It won't be.

Intel and nVidia can go fly a kite as far as I'm concerned. Their pricing policies are garbage.

 

[Kenmitch]

Intel and nVidia can go fly a kite as far as I'm concerned. Their pricing policies are garbage.

Going soft? Your forgot the in a thunder storm!

 

[DrMrLordX]

Going soft? Your forgot the in a thunder storm!

That electricity can be put to better use elsewhere. Nikola Tesla told me so! I would not waste it on Intel/NV

 

[Kenmitch]

That electricity can be put to better use elsewhere. Nikola Tesla told me so! I would not waste it on Intel/NV

I figured you were getting up there in the years, but I had no idea you were that old. Do you fart dust yet?

 

[DrMrLordX]

I figured you were getting up there in the years, but I had no idea you were that old. Do you fart dust yet?

Only if SHODAN lets me.

 

[Ajay]

Probably. Expect higher prices for Vermeer.

That does seem likely, given the prices of this lack luster 'update'. Hopefully it won't too bad. I'd hate to see AMD practically price themselves out of the market like they did with K8.

 

[lightmanek]

Pricing is relative, we have inflation to take into account, which would mean that we are paying less work for our new chips released at the same numerical value a year or two later.

BTW, my 3900XT should be with me tomorrow. Yes, I've played a ticket at silicon lottery, but paid £60 extra to get guaranteed winner.

Some reviewers are getting very decent all core clocks from these chips while others are not. I hope for a chip similar to the one Level1 Wendel got

 

[Kenmitch]

BTW, my 3900XT should be with me tomorrow. Yes, I've played a ticket at silicon lottery, but paid £60 extra to get guaranteed winner.

Good luck on your adventure! I'm sure you'll pop back in and let us know how it went.

 

[Ranulf]

What's the purpose of this release? Sounds like a money grab to me or is Zen 3 much later than expected? Can't see them releasing Zen3 on desktop in 2020 with this refresh.

They've already confirmed that Zen3 consumer chips are this year. Likely only high end though, say 8c-12c-16c first or maybe only 12 and 16 core models.

This release was to get back in the news and reset prices to last year's MSRP.

 

[Ajay]

They've already confirmed that Zen3 consumer chips are this year. Likely only high end though, say 8c-12c-16c first or maybe only 12 and 16 core models.

This release was to get back in the news and reset prices to last year's MSRP.

Have they? I know that they've confirmed that products with the Zen3 architecture will be available b/4 the end of the year.

 

[Ranulf]

Have they? I know that they've confirmed that products with the Zen3 architecture will be available b/4 the end of the year.

Yes, about 3 weeks ago. It just wont be server chips. Exactly what they will release consumer side, is yet to be seen.

AMD confirms Zen 3 "Vermeer" CPUs coming in 2020

No, AMD's upcoming Zen 3 Vermeer chips are not delayed, despite recent rumors. AMD confirms that we can expect Zen 3 chips to hit shelves in 2020.

techreport.com

AMD Confirms "Vermeer" Zen 3 Not Delayed, to Launch in 2020

AMD in an official briefing call with us confirmed that the company's "Zen 3" client processors are on-track for launch within 2020. This refutes rumors that "Zen 3" based Ryzen processors had been delayed to 2021 in favor of giving the upcoming Ryzen 3000XT reign over the rest of the year. The...

www.techpowerup.com

"The call was chaired by AMD's client-segment product managers who were speaking purely in context of their product segment, which is how we deduce that they were referring to "Vermeer" and not [just] "Milan." They were responding to speculation that "Zen 3" has been delayed to 2021, forcing AMD to refresh its existing IP. "

 

[DrMrLordX]

@lightmanek

Inflation from 2017 to 2020 isn't that severe. A $499 item in 2017 dollars is worth $522 in 2020 dollars, on average.

 

[exquisitechar]

Ryzen 4K pricing structure will be similar to its predecessor, I think. A small bump in prices here and there, but nothing drastic. Maybe i’m being optimistic?

 

[DrMrLordX]

Ryzen 4K pricing structure will be similar to its predecessor, I think. A small bump in prices here and there, but nothing drastic. Maybe i’m being optimistic?

I hope you are right, but when there's no competition, things can go very wrong.

 

[jpiniero]

Remember that Rocket Lake only goes up to 8 cores max.

 

[lightmanek]

@lightmanek

Inflation from 2017 to 2020 isn't that severe. A $499 item in 2017 dollars is worth $522 in 2020 dollars, on average.

Yes, but still my point stands, especially on longer time frames.
I wish next generation CPU's and GPU's will launch at old prices with 20% to 50% better performance than last gen. but looking at market trends I don't count on it.
To me it would still be reasonable if they just added 10% and moved 12C Zen3 to $550 as historically AMD tends to lower prices over time anyway. But I too have a feeling we will see $599 price point if AMD really manages 20% IPC uplift and better clocks. I think this largely will also depend on how competitive Intel next CPU families will be.

PS. My shipment was delayed and 3900XT will arrive tomorrow

 

[jpiniero]

Yes, but still my point stands, especially on longer time frames.
I wish next generation CPU's and GPU's will launch at old prices with 20% to 50% better performance than last gen. but looking at market trends I don't count on it.
To me it would still be reasonable if they just added 10% and moved 12C Zen3 to $550 as historically AMD tends to lower prices over time anyway. But I too have a feeling we will see $599 price point if AMD really manages 20% IPC uplift and better clocks. I think this largely will also depend on how competitive Intel next CPU families will be.

That's why I mentioned Rocket Lake and it being 8 cores max. And of course no guarantee that Intel will even supply the market. No new HEDT processors on the horizon too. AMD definitely has some leeway on 12+ core pricing.