Strates: days to pass /. calculation - explain?

[ZapZilla]

Strates: Would you please explain how you are getting your days to pass /.

You posted before that you were using a 7 day average.

For the last 7 days I've got daily data:
84, 126, 139, 148, 131, 126, 67 = 821 /7 ==> 118 for a 7 day average.

?

 

[Train]

he may be figuring in the rate of growth,

I suggested earlier that the ACTUAL days to pass /. was shorter because if you figure in the rate of growth (or more specifically, the rate of the rate of growth, also known as the derivative) not just the rate of yesterday or the last 7 days, it would be more accurate.

I still havent got around to adding this up, but i plan to one of these days, I want to be REALLY accurate, i may have to dust off the ol' calculus book to get the prediction correct.

 

[strates]

Zapzilla, the excel formula I am using right now may be glitchy has I just implemented it, but it is: -(f2/(sum(g2:g9)/7)). That divides the total difference by the average change in difference over the last 7 days. You are correct, though, if you average the last 7 "days to pass" columns, you would get 118.

strates

p.s: keep your eyes open for a new feature appearing on my page.

 

[ZapZilla]

Trai:

While we had a big growth spurt before we bested the Macs, our growth rate is a bit slooow now with just over 700 members reporting blocks daily.

 

[Joe O]

You can't just average the days to pass. The days to pass should be going down by 1 each day, if the closing rate is constant. If you add the days to pass to the current day, getting the date that we will pass, you can average that. Otherwise, you have to average the closing rate, which Strates calls the change in difference. Then use the average closing rate to determine the number of days to pass. This still does not take into account the change in closing rate because of growth (constant or in spurts).

 

[LeBlatt]

I don't want to sound an aßß, but there is a fact that will probably waste all our /. estimates : what if OGR starts next week ?
How many of AT and /. will switch ?

 

[Joe O]

LeBlatt,
It's all your fault! You were the first one to mention OGR, so you get the credit/blame.

Don't you think that's fair?