It's arguably both CT and Tesla that are at risk. Their Q1 results were quite bad, a $2B sales decline YoY.
5 years ago, we had all theorized that CT would be a hit and large contributor to Tesla's sales. In that light, CT is a certified bust, as you'd previously noted.
But the problems run deeper. Elon's brand destruction is global, where CT is not even relevant. Europeans are already voting with their wallets. Meanwhile, the pivotal Chinese auto market is very cutthroat and you're seeing signs that Tesla is in trouble there as well. The following story seems too absurd to be 100% true? Sales peons at Tesla are being forced to work 90 hour weeks in China as desperation sets in? LOL
Tesla is being squeezed out of the Chinese market, and the pressure is currently falling on the sales workers, who...
electrek.co
Death cross last week:
Tesla shares reached a "death cross" this week, indicating heightened volatility and the potential for future losses.
futurism.com
My
guess is that Musk will ride out his May tenure in the White House, say "mission accomplished", and go back to Tesla:
Threat level: "We view this as a fork in the road time: if Musk leaves the White House there will be permanent brand damage...but Tesla will have its most important asset and strategic thinker back as full time CEO to drive the vision and the long term story will not be altered," Wedbush Securities analyst and longtime Tesla bull Dan Ives wrote Sunday in a research note.
"IF Musk chooses to stay with the Trump White House it could change the future of Tesla/brand damage will grow."
Tesla seems pretty stable at the $220-ish mark (although we'll see what tomorrow brings!).
My thoughts are:
1. The Cybertruck was
shockingly ugly at first. But it grew on me! I like weird.
2. It fell short across the board: endless recalls, crazy pricing, etc. The public antics of the ultra-wealthy politician-owner clobbered the already-oddball truck's reputation permanently, I'm afraid.
3. I think Tesla will do okay otherwise. The new Model Y is SUPER fantastic! But Kia has the new EV4 coming out, which is really great, so they are no longer flying solo in the market. By my estimates, Tesla has made north of $4 billion on Cybertruck sales to date, so while it's not a best seller (~5% conversion rate on pre-orders), they probably at least broke even on bringing the car to market.
If they could go back in time:
1. Sell the Cybertruck for $55k to account for inflation, M3, and MY pricing. That still undercuts the F-150 EV, so it'd still be a good deal. Also, tweak the design to look at least a LITTLE cooler...offer meaty tires, the factory lightbar, etc.
2. Stay out of politics, stay off Twitter, and get a PR handler.
3. Amp up the aftermarket customizability of the CT. HUGE potential for roving billboards, wraps for style, put them in rap videos, whatever. It could have been a
really fun cultural icon, but instead it went from "ugly" to "negative political statement".
If they were smart:
1. Release a budget Model 2.
People want a cheap EV!
2. Release the Semi EV
3. Release the Roadster 2.0
They COULD turn it around. I think the
fastest way would be to remove Musk & the Cybertruck and make Tesla as an independent "car" company (I also don't think that will happen!).
My guess is:
1. Musk will finish at the White House & return to Tesla within the next few months
2. The focus will be on the self-driving Uber cars. I don't think this will happen on their desired schedule (based on 10 years of Autopilot promises), but I do think it will be viable in the future
My minor is in marketing & film; I love studying major business blunders to add to my "lessons learned" notebook. The last few months have been unlike anything I've ever seen: incredible market losses, reputation damage, etc.
I don't see myself ever getting a CT at this point, tbh.