Tesla Motors death watch

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Drako

Lifer
Jun 9, 2007
10,697
161
106
On a slightly related note:
Does anyone know if any of the other Electric/Hybrid manufacturers have incorporated any of the released Tesla patents into their designs yet?

Since the patents were just released in June, I would say it's way too early for that to have happened, but I'm not sure.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,158
2,434
136
Using GAAP to determine profitability rather than whatever smoke and mirrors you want to use to put your company in a positive light.

Musk has sad repeatedly that the Tesla stock price is more than they deserve. They are a growing company in a capital intensive industry. They should be focused on growth not on profitability at this point.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
81
Musk has sad repeatedly that the Tesla stock price is more than they deserve. They are a growing company in a capital intensive industry. They should be focused on growth not on profitability at this point.

And that's fine, but let's call things as they are. They're a niche market right now, and according to what I'm now hearing from their supporters, always will be in a niche market.

The problem for Tesla trying to remain in that niche market is that eventually other automakers will catch up. There's very little room for niche auto manufacturers. History has demonstrated that. Most luxury makes are part of a larger auto company. Do you really believe that other luxury auto companies will sit back and let some upstart swallow the market?

Battery production outside of Tesla will increase. The market will demand it; it won't settle for Tesla being the only EV company especially if they're only going to be making enough batteries to supply a tiny portion of the entire market. And if the only thing Tesla has going for them is a temporary lead in manufacturing output, they're not really a long term winner. Massive companies will throw their weight behind production, those batteries will start out in the luxury brands competing directly with Tesla, and eventually filter down to the common brands where economies of scale will drown Tesla.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,158
2,434
136
And that's fine, but let's call things as they are. They're a niche market right now, and according to what I'm now hearing from their supporters, always will be in a niche market.

The problem for Tesla trying to remain in that niche market is that eventually other automakers will catch up. There's very little room for niche auto manufacturers. History has demonstrated that. Most luxury makes are part of a larger auto company. Do you really believe that other luxury auto companies will sit back and let some upstart swallow the market?

Battery production outside of Tesla will increase. The market will demand it; it won't settle for Tesla being the only EV company especially if they're only going to be making enough batteries to supply a tiny portion of the entire market. And if the only thing Tesla has going for them is a temporary lead in manufacturing output, they're not really a long term winner. Massive companies will throw their weight behind production, those batteries will start out in the luxury brands competing directly with Tesla, and eventually filter down to the common brands where economies of scale will drown Tesla.

They are a niche market because that is how a company starts out as a niche until they can grab bigger market share. Doesn't mean a niche player cannot grab bigger and bigger market share. Those auto manufacturers still have to design a competing product that will measure up to what Tesla produces. They also have to match up with Tesla on it's sales and service. Does any auto company have a EV in production or near production that matches the Model S? Does any other auto company have a network of supercharger stations that make it possible for EV's to travel long distances?

Tesla is already working towards achieving staggering economies of scale in it's Giga-Factory. I don't see any other manufacturer even talking about approaching the scale of battery manufacturer that Tesla is currently achieving. Tesla is planning to produce more Lithium-Ion batteries in it's one factory by 2020 than every other Lithium-Ion battery manufactuer in the world combined. Not sure what economy of scale you were looking for.
 

AmdEmAll

Diamond Member
Aug 27, 2000
6,696
7
81
lol @ the Tesla haters.. same people who are now butthurt that the keystone pipeline just failed in the senate
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
81
They are a niche market because that is how a company starts out as a niche until they can grab bigger market share. Doesn't mean a niche player cannot grab bigger and bigger market share.

The auto industry has been shedding niche players, not creating them, in case you hadn't noticed.


Those auto manufacturers still have to design a competing product that will measure up to what Tesla produces.

What do you suppose is easier? A company which already has $100B or more in yearly revenue developing a niche product? Or a niche company growing to compete with that giant? Oh by the way, there are 8 of those giants.

The top eight auto manufacturers collectively have revenue of over $1 Trillion. You think they're going to skip this whole "EV fad"?


They also have to match up with Tesla on it's sales and service.

Seriously?

Does any auto company have a EV in production or near production that matches the Model S?

No, and they won't until EV is a viable product. Tesla's measily couple of billion in revenue is niche within a niche. Even Daimler does $100B/yr. Tesla will have a hand in making the EV market viable, at which point $1 Trillion in revenue will come to bear and blow them out of the market they helped create.

Does any other auto company have a network of supercharger stations that make it possible for EV's to travel long distances?

Does Tesla? LOL, 100 stations. Unless the whole point of an EV is to drive it back and forth to the one station in town, that's a useless metric. It will need industry wide adoption and massive rollout. One tiny company's efforts will not matter there.

Tesla is already working towards achieving staggering economies of scale in it's Giga-Factory. I don't see any other manufacturer even talking about approaching the scale of battery manufacturer that Tesla is currently achieving. Tesla is planning to produce more Lithium-Ion batteries in it's one factory by 2020 than every other Lithium-Ion battery manufactuer in the world combined. Not sure what economy of scale you were looking for.

The kind that scales to tens of millions of vehicles per year. Not the Tesla niche-within-a-niche market. To convert the whole world to electric vehicles will require 20 or more times the capacity Tesla is proposing by 2020. Unless the whole world is willing to stand around waiting for Tesla's manufacturing to catch up and supply the rest of the market, other capital will step in and make Tesla's investment irrelevant.


Edit: Yes, I'm aware Daimler owns a part of Tesla. All the more reason to realize that Tesla alone is not going to change the world.
 
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TridenT

Lifer
Sep 4, 2006
16,800
45
91
I'm not a fanboy of Tesla but I am glad to see them doing well. I'm also glad to see Keystone pipeline fail in the Senate. LULZ. :awe:
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Dafuq happened to revive this thread today?

Not invested in Tesla. Very interested in seeing their future products though.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
Dafuq happened to revive this thread today?

Not invested in Tesla. Very interested in seeing their future products though.
I posted in another thread that their cash flow for the first 3 quarter of 2014 is a net loss of half a billion dollars.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TSLA&fstype=ii&ei=fetrVKC2IunDigKIiIAQ
+29.07mm cash from operations
-601.22mm capex

Now compare sources of cash:
+29.07mm from operations
+2131.80mm from selling stock and borrowing money

What's interesting is that their cash from operations is actually in decline
+60.64mm for Q1
+57.06mm for Q2
+29.07mm for Q3
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
I posted in another thread that their cash flow for the first 3 quarter of 2014 is a net loss of half a billion dollars.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TSLA&fstype=ii&ei=fetrVKC2IunDigKIiIAQ
+29.07mm cash from operations
-601.22mm capex

Now compare sources of cash:
+29.07mm from operations
+2131.80mm from selling stock and borrowing money

What's interesting is that their cash from operations is actually in decline
+60.64mm for Q1
+57.06mm for Q2
+29.07mm for Q3

/facepalm

You don't know how to read financial statements, do you? You think the increase of $35m in R&D in Q3 might have something to do with it?

And you do realize they beat the analyst estimates for the quarter.

Oh wait, you're the retard that was trying to compare Tesla's financials(as a manufacturing start-up) to McDonalds and other mature companies in different industries.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,158
2,434
136
The auto industry has been shedding niche players, not creating them, in case you hadn't noticed.
What is the point you are making? Sure Tesla can fail if they don’t keep executing on their business plan. Just because they are a niche player doesn’t mean they will automatically be acquired or fail.

What do you suppose is easier? A company which already has $100B or more in yearly revenue developing a niche product? Or a niche company growing to compete with that giant? Oh by the way, there are 8 of those giants.
Tesla already has a product and the experience. The companies have to build a product that competes in this market. I am sure they will build a successful product. That doesn’t mean that Tesla cannot compete against these bigger players. It isn’t like Tesla is making a crappy product that people are buying because they have no other alternative. The auto market is a large pie.
The top eight auto manufacturers collectively have revenue of over $1 Trillion. You think they're going to skip this whole "EV fad"?
Of course not. I hope they jump in. I never said they would not make an EV.

Seriously?
Yes seriously. Tesla is beating the major manufactures on how Sales and service is handled for autos.

No, and they won't until EV is a viable product. Tesla's measily couple of billion in revenue is niche within a niche. Even Daimler does $100B/yr. Tesla will have a hand in making the EV market viable, at which point $1 Trillion in revenue will come to bear and blow them out of the market they helped create.
They can try. Just because they have more money doesn’t mean they will be able to snap their fingers and make Tesla go away and deliver a wonderful EV.


Does Tesla? LOL, 100 stations. Unless the whole point of an EV is to drive it back and forth to the one station in town, that's a useless metric. It will need industry wide adoption and massive rollout. One tiny company's efforts will not matter there.
Actually 256 super charging stations, worldwide and increasing every week. The point of the supercharging station is to allow an EV to travel long distances. You would normally only use the Supercharging station when you are on a road trip. A big complaint of EV’s that they are not practical as primary cars since you cannot travel cross country with them. With the Tesla you can. No other manufacturer currently has a network like this for their EV’s to allow long distance travel so a Tesla can function as a primary car.

The kind that scales to tens of millions of vehicles per year. Not the Tesla niche-within-a-niche market. To convert the whole world to electric vehicles will require 20 or more times the capacity Tesla is proposing by 2020. Unless the whole world is willing to stand around waiting for Tesla's manufacturing to catch up and supply the rest of the market, other capital will step in and make Tesla's investment irrelevant.
The Giga-factory will be on the scale that Tesla will need to compete on economies of scale with any other single manufacturer of batteries from a battery price point.
Edit: Yes, I'm aware Daimler owns a part of Tesla. All the more reason to realize that Tesla alone is not going to change the world.
I never said that Tesla alone is going to change the world.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
/facepalm

You don't know how to read financial statements, do you? You think the increase of $35m in R&D in Q3 might have something to do with it?
Then let's add it back in. 30mm turns into 60mm cash from operations. Their capital expenditures are 10x their operating income and you think this is good news? By all means, I encourage you to buy Tesla stock with both hands.
I've already made a killing by betting against Tesla. I bought put options when they announced a "gigafactory" near the beginning of the year.


And you do realize they beat the analyst estimates for the quarter.
So the estimates were bankruptcy and they're managed to not go bankrupt in that time? That's bullish. You should definitely buy Tesla shares. Better yet, buy call options. When the company has a YTD net loss of 186 million, that means there's plenty of room for improvement.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,158
2,434
136
Then let's add it back in. 30mm turns into 60mm cash from operations. Their capital expenditures are 10x their operating income and you think this is good news? By all means, I encourage you to buy Tesla stock with both hands.
I've already made a killing by betting against Tesla. I bought put options when they announced a "gigafactory" near the beginning of the year.



So the estimates were bankruptcy and they're managed to not go bankrupt in that time? That's bullish. You should definitely buy Tesla shares. Better yet, buy call options. When the company has a YTD net loss of 186 million, that means there's plenty of room for improvement.

Tesla stock is way overpriced. You know the Stock for a company is overpriced when the CEO goes on TV and says the stock value is more than they deserve.
 

natto fire

Diamond Member
Jan 4, 2000
7,117
10
76
Regardless of what Tesla does, you people that made money off of them through nothing more than a mouse click, moving money around, are what is wrong with this country. Hard work is what is supposed to be what makes this the land of opportunity. Not random click at the right place at the right time. I know I am old fashioned in thinking you should actually work for a paycheck, but it was how I was raised.

Hopefully this whole thing comes crashing down on the lazy, but I guess there are plenty of baubles in the mean time.
 

DAGTA

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
8,172
1
0
And that's fine, but let's call things as they are. They're a niche market right now, and according to what I'm now hearing from their supporters, always will be in a niche market.

I don't think they are going to stay in a niche market. This is the future of cars. The internal combustion engine is going to leave automobiles over the next few decades.

Tesla is working on a middle-class affordable car now. Fully electric.
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
Then let's add it back in. 30mm turns into 60mm cash from operations. Their capital expenditures are 10x their operating income and you think this is good news? By all means, I encourage you to buy Tesla stock with both hands.
I've already made a killing by betting against Tesla. I bought put options when they announced a "gigafactory" near the beginning of the year.



So the estimates were bankruptcy and they're managed to not go bankrupt in that time? That's bullish. You should definitely buy Tesla shares. Better yet, buy call options. When the company has a YTD net loss of 186 million, that means there's plenty of room for improvement.

More facepalm

You understand what they're doing with their capital expenditures, right?

And sure you made a penny on Tesla. Maybe, in your fake portfolio that you have, you shorted it on a bad day of the stock.

Again, you compare them to McDonalds and think they should be making a profit as a start-up that is building it's own manufacturing plants for parts and building their vehicles.

Between not being able to read financials, comparing the financials to non-comparable companies is laughable.

Again, are you in high school or college?
 
Oct 25, 2006
11,036
11
91
Regardless of what Tesla does, you people that made money off of them through nothing more than a mouse click, moving money around, are what is wrong with this country. Hard work is what is supposed to be what makes this the land of opportunity. Not random click at the right place at the right time. I know I am old fashioned in thinking you should actually work for a paycheck, but it was how I was raised.

Hopefully this whole thing comes crashing down on the lazy, but I guess there are plenty of baubles in the mean time.

I'm sorry, but working for just a paycheck is how a middle class worker goes along life. Not taking any risks and going with the flow.

In order to make real money, you need to take a risk, spend a ton of money, and realize that your time is much more valuable than what a paycheck could ever get you.
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
Curious, why hasn't the OP created a death watch thread for Amazon? 20 years and it still barely makes a profit.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
81
I don't think they are going to stay in a niche market. This is the future of cars. The internal combustion engine is going to leave automobiles over the next few decades.

Tesla is working on a middle-class affordable car now. Fully electric.

And there battery production Tesla is bragging about will support the production of 500K (according to this thread) cars per year. Do you know how many tens of millions of passenger vehicles are sold every year around the world?

If EVs are the future, the numbers say the future is not Tesla. They will remain a niche player.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
You understand what they're doing with their capital expenditures, right?
Losing money at record speed?

And sure you made a penny on Tesla. Maybe, in your fake portfolio that you have, you shorted it on a bad day of the stock.
I made about 400% return over the span of a month.


I'd love to hear more of your interesting theories about how to read financial statements. So far we've covered:
-Running a net loss every single year since inception is not a bad thing.
-Having negative free cash flow every single year since inception is not a bad thing.
-Relying on government handouts is a sustainable business model.
-Having 50% debt to assets is perfectly normal.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
My view of Tesla:

- talented leadership
- 'best car ever made'
- electric car attractive
- 1% in America who can easily buy this making more money than they can spend

Leads me to want to own their stock.
 
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