The Gas Car Banning Thread

[ultimatebob]

I noticed that Canada joined the list of countries that are planning on banning the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles in 2035:

https://www.engadget.com/canada-combustion-engine-car-ban-2035-154623071.html

I've been noticing a lot of these, so I think that they deserve their own thread.

Dumb question for my Canadian friends... do they even have a half-decent electric car charging network in rural Canada? Because the electric car charging network in the rural US sucks. You'll be fine driving from San Francisco to LA in a Nissan Leaf, but trying to drive from Idaho to Montana during winter would likely be a death wish.

No offense to Canada, but most of it looks more like Montana than California.

 

[pauldun170]

As per Canada

Making it easier for Canadians to switch to electric vehicles through additional funding of $400 million for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) charging stations, in support of the Government’s objective of adding 50,000 ZEV chargers to Canada’s network. In addition, the Canada Infrastructure Bank will also invest $500 million in ZEV charging and refueling infrastructure. The Government of Canada will provide $1.7 billion to extend the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV) program will make it more affordable and easier for Canadians to buy and drive new electric light-duty vehicles. The Government will also put in place a sales mandate to ensure at least 20 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales will be zero-emission vehicles by 2026, at least 60 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035. To reduce emissions from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), the Government of Canada will aim to achieve 35 percent of total MHDV sales being ZEVs by 2030. In addition, the Government will develop a MHDV ZEV regulation to require 100 percent MHDV sales to be ZEVs by 2040 for a subset of vehicle types based on feasibility, with interim 2030 regulated sales requirements that would vary for different vehicle categories based on feasibility, and explore interim targets for the mid-2020

Also as per Canada

Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) are vehicles that can operate without producing tailpipe emissions, such as battery-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Zero Emission Vehicles

tc.canada.ca

2030 Emissions Reduction Plan – Canada’s Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy - Canada.ca

2030 Emissions Reduction Plan – Canada’s Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy

www.canada.ca

As per typical definition of "plug-in hybrid electric"
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) use batteries to power an electric motor, as well as another fuel, such as gasoline or diesel, to power an internal combustion engine or other propulsion source.


Sounds like folks need to be more detail oriented in their reporting and thread making.

Issue not found.
Plug in hybrids solve the edge case scenario

 

[Red Squirrel]

Even in my small city we do have a few public chargers. Though I don't think those are really the determining factor for owning an EV as most people will just charge at home.

That said as much as I'd like to see EVs become the standard offering the more I realize it's just not feasible. EVs are twice as expensive as gas, and you usually end up on a long waiting list. That's not really acceptable to the general public, who are already skeptical about the tech. The only people buying EVs are the ones that truly want an EV and are willing to deal with the extra cost and the wait period.

Given how far away this ban is, it's almost guarantee a future administration is going to eliminate the ban. It's easy for whoever is in power now to promise something that will happen when they're no longer in power.

 

[ultimatebob]

I gotta admit, Paul's write-up sounds less "Flamebaity" than the Engadget article.

I'm still wondering if there will actually be reasonably priced long-range electric cars by 2035. Right now, people seem willing to put down a deposit for a $50,000 Tesla Model 3 and wait a year for it to arrive, but something tells me that GM or Ford isn't going to be able to pull that off 10 years from now.

 

[sdifox]

As in no more new ICE car by 2035. Canada is very good at drawing pies in the sky but not at rolling up the sleeves and getting to pie making.

 

[IronWing]

I, for one, welcome our ICE-free future just for the noise reduction.

 

[pauldun170]

I gotta admit, Paul's write-up sounds less "Flamebaity" than the Engadget article.

I'm still wondering if there will actually be reasonably priced long-range electric cars by 2035. Right now, people seem willing to put down a deposit for a $50,000 Tesla Model 3 and wait a year for it to arrive, but something tells me that GM or Ford isn't going to be able to pull that off 10 years from now.

I've seen articles\threads similar to what you came across floating around a lot of cars forums and its usually written to appeal to 2 camps.
Those that are anti car and want to EV all the things celebrating that their Tesla circle jerking were totally worth the callouses. They usually focus on the EV part and jump around liike munchkins singing the wicked witch is dead.
Those that still say things like "girls cars" or the the only cars real men drive are V8 pickups and muscle cars. Usually its just rambling about "liberah's", democrats and whatever democratic politician was last featured on foxnews.

I prefer to read the source material.

So far, as governments push reduction in gas cars with efforts like these I'm see a lot of that little "PHEV" in the fine print.
I'm sure their are some out there that exclude phev's in their targets but lets be honest.
This shit is basically "hopes and dreams" stuff that is targeting dates in the future. If they choke the electrical grid because "$$$$" bullshit or some issues with charging standards cause problems the government is designed to be adaptable.

I'm more a fan of "yank off the bandaid" than wishy washy half ass efforts. I don't see anything wrong with establishing targets and letting utilities and manufacturers know that this is what is expected and to include then in your long term planning.

 

[Heartbreaker]

So far, as governments push reduction in gas cars with efforts like these I'm see a lot of that little "PHEV" in the fine print.
I'm sure their are some out there that exclude phev's in their targets but lets be honest.
This shit is basically "hopes and dreams" stuff that is targeting dates in the future. If they choke the electrical grid because "$$$$" bullshit or some issues with charging standards cause problems the government is designed to be adaptable.

I'm more a fan of "yank off the bandaid" than wishy washy half ass efforts. I don't see anything wrong with establishing targets and letting utilities and manufacturers know that this is what is expected and to include then in your long term planning.

It's happening fast in Europe (where I believe they mostly include banning PHEVs), slower in North America, but in 10 years, I expect only a minority will actually still want to buy new combustion based cars, so the bans will happen with only a relative whimper of opposition.

 

[KeithP]

Canada has outlined an Emissions Reduction Plan that will require all new passenger car sales to be zero-emissions models by 2035.

This, like most of these edicts, specifically state the ban is on new vehicles. Sales of used ICE vehicles will still be allowed.

-kp

 

[Red Squirrel]

Yeah I do hope they still allow the sale of used. That's all I can afford. Especially if EVs become the only option for new. I do want to eventually do an EV swap though. I really like the idea of EVs, I just can't afford one. Well not so much that I can't afford, I just can't justify the cost. It's almost half the cost of my house for something that won't last as long.

 

[ultimatebob]

Yeah I do hope they still allow the sale of used. That's all I can afford. Especially if EVs become the only option for new. I do want to eventually do an EV swap though. I really like the idea of EVs, I just can't afford one. Well not so much that I can't afford, I just can't justify the cost. It's almost half the cost of my house for something that won't last as long.

They're going to continue to allow the sale of used gas-powered vehicles from the looks of it, but something tells me that the price of them will go through the roof when the Electric alternatives are much more expensive. Right now, the electric premium over a compatible gas-powered vehicle is about 35%. That will probably go down somewhat by 2035, but who knows by how much.

 

[Heartbreaker]

They're going to continue to allow the sale of used gas-powered vehicles from the looks of it, but something tells me that the price of them will go through the roof when the Electric alternatives are much more expensive. Right now, the electric premium over a compatible gas-powered vehicle is about 35%. That will probably go down somewhat by 2035, but who knows by how much.

I'd expect the opposite. A glut of used combustion cars at that point, as EVs just keep getting better and more cost effective, and the charging network expands. Hardly anyone is going to want to burn liquid fuels anymore.

 

[ultimatebob]

I'd expect the opposite. A glut of used combustion cars at that point, as EVs just keep getting better and more cost effective, and the charging network expands. Hardly anyone is going to want to burn liquid fuels anymore.

Is anybody going to want a used EV, though? Replacement battery packs are expensive, to the point where 10 year old Nissan Leafs are practically worthless.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Yeah that's one thing I see as a big downside to EVs, it seems they will have a more limited life. 20-30 years at very most. Some will die prematurely due to a bad cell and nobody wanting to fix the pack. Right to repair is going to be very important with EVs but sadly I think that battle is mostly lost.

The idea of a classic sitting in a field or barn, being able to do a minor tune up to it and starting it is also going to be a thing of the past.

But if the makers can all agree on a standard for battery packs so that they are modular, then perhaps it will be as simple as throwing a new battery pack in and good to go. Like it needs to be DIYable.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Is anybody going to want a used EV, though? Replacement battery packs are expensive, to the point where 10 year old Nissan Leafs are practically worthless.

The Leaf had the worse battery conditioning of any EV, every other EV is better than that.

EV batteries are getting more durable, and even old Leafs can get new life:

 

[Red Squirrel]

Yeah here's hoping that the battery tech only gets better as far as longevity. Realistically lot of gas cars don't even make it to 200,000km before the body and everything is so rusted out that it's no longer road worthy, so as long as the battery can handle enough cycling to get well past that it will technically not be any different than a gas car. Thermal management is key. Need to make sure that when you charge and it's -40 it will warm the battery hot enough before it starts to put charge in it, for example. There also needs to be good "off" management. Ex: nothing that just completely kills the battery over time if the car is parked, off, for a long time. Stuff like that can go a long way to ensure they'll be fine.

 

[sdifox]

Yeah that's one thing I see as a big downside to EVs, it seems they will have a more limited life. 20-30 years at very most. Some will die prematurely due to a bad cell and nobody wanting to fix the pack. Right to repair is going to be very important with EVs but sadly I think that battle is mostly lost.

The idea of a classic sitting in a field or barn, being able to do a minor tune up to it and starting it is also going to be a thing of the past.

But if the makers can all agree on a standard for battery packs so that they are modular, then perhaps it will be as simple as throwing a new battery pack in and good to go. Like it needs to be DIYable.

Err no, no one but trained professionals should be messing with giant LiIon batteries. The Huyndai Ioniq5 battery is modular and it is possible to swap out one module as opposed to whole pack.
There is a lot to like about the Ioniq5, except it has a fatal flaw, a CUV without a rear wiper. I still can't figure out how they messed that up, it's like they have never made a SUV/CUV/Hatchback/Minivan...

 

[drnickriviera]

Err no, no one but trained professionals should be messing with giant LiIon batteries. The Huyndai Ioniq5 battery is modular and it is possible to swap out one module as opposed to whole pack.

I'd say if you are technically competent enough to rebuild an engine, a battery pack is the same level. Meaning if you are willing to buy good torque wrenches and dial indicators, you'd be willing to buy high voltage gloves and tools. I've taken apart a 310V C-Max pack. The key would be right to repair and some good instructions. Most packs will have a place to split them into lower voltage sections.

 

[Red Squirrel]

The Ioniq is the one I've been looking at too. And yeah, no rear wiper seems to be the big complaint. Hopefully they add it in next models.

 

[sdifox]

I'd say if you are technically competent enough to rebuild an engine, a battery pack is the same level. Meaning if you are willing to buy good torque wrenches and dial indicators, you'd be willing to buy high voltage gloves and tools. I've taken apart a 310V C-Max pack. The key would be right to repair and some good instructions. Most packs will have a place to split them into lower voltage sections.

Right to repair is a good thing. However, messing up with an engine is not as likely to kill you as puncturing a LiIon battery pack. I would take it into a third party shop trained to work on EVs.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I'd say if you are technically competent enough to rebuild an engine, a battery pack is the same level. Meaning if you are willing to buy good torque wrenches and dial indicators, you'd be willing to buy high voltage gloves and tools. I've taken apart a 310V C-Max pack. The key would be right to repair and some good instructions. Most packs will have a place to split them into lower voltage sections.

Different skill set and comfort level going from standard wrenching to high voltage electrical.

Plus a lot of the big packs are sealed with industrial adhesives for structural reasons.

On top of that is the equipment required to remove and replace a 1000 lb battery pack from the bottom of a vehicle.

It makes home mechanic repair MUCH less likely IMO.

Though independent shops will spring up that will do pack repairs, as they already are in what is still early days.

A decade from now, you will likely have the option of buying a reconditioned pack with a warranty, for significantly less than new, having it installed at independent shops, just like you can have your engine or transmission repaired/replaced at an independent mechanic today.

 

[Red Squirrel]

That's the thing as long as they are DIYable it means that independent shops can exist, does not necessarily mean the average user will touch it, but the ability needs to be there. Ex: no potted parts, parts that can be bought, documentation, schematics etc. But if they do like Tesla (at least newer cars) and put it part of the chassis or do like John Deere and just make it illegal altogether to touch anything, that's where the problem is. They need to be 100% open to repairability and parts need to be available. Hopefully that is the route that they go. If a pack can last at least 20 years, as long as the ability to get modules or the whole pack replaced is there then it's not that much different than a full engine/tranny rebuild on a ICE car. With lot of independent shops being allowed to do it, it would get cheaper too.

 

[Elfear]

I, for one, welcome our ICE-free future just for the noise reduction.

Ha! For me it's just the opposite. Part of the reason I'm hesitant with the switch to EVs is the lack of a glorious soundtrack. I rented a Model S this last weekend and it was a LOT of fun. Lots of cool tech inside and the acceleration was epic. But man it was rather boring on the sound front. No screaming exhaust note to get the blood going.

 

[pauldun170]

Is anybody going to want a used EV, though? Replacement battery packs are expensive, to the point where 10 year old Nissan Leafs are practically worthless.

Remember when the Prius came out and everyone claimed the same thing about the Prius battery?

Ha! For me it's just the opposite. Part of the reason I'm hesitant with the switch to EVs is the lack of a glorious soundtrack. I rented a Model S this last weekend and it was a LOT of fun. Lots of cool tech inside and the acceleration was epic. But man it was rather boring on the sound front. No screaming exhaust note to get the blood going.

Saw a video where the Lucid Air has this cool thing where you can have the pedal make an F1 car sound

 

[ultimatebob]

Remember when the Prius came out and everyone claimed the same thing about the Prius battery?

Yeah... but then the Leaf came out and made all of those dire battery predictions a reality!

Tesla's "No, you can't just replace the dead cell, spend $$,$$$ for a replacement battery pack!" policy isn't helping with my fear relief, either.