The Intel Atom Thread

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liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
"Forgive me for being 8mm2 out."

you are forgiven.

"Meanwhile back in the real world, the only interest in it is from their usual x86 partners, who can't seem to get a decently specced tablet out for a decent price."

interesting qualifier. how do you define decently specced as I'm sure its a moving target with you. BT-T has lpddr3, and emcc, which are superior to what ure getting in other tablets. high res screens galore. lenovo is claiming they are going to deliver the world's thinnest tablet before the end of the year. battery life looks really good from the snippets ive gathered. What else do you want? I'm sure if intel delivered it you'd find another reason to knock them down.


"When performance and power is within 10% of each other yet one has graphics that are twice as good, what do you think OEM's would rather have?"

power is definitely not comparable against vanilla arm cores. CPU is definitely superior. graphics on the other hand are definitely not 2x better than baytrail. maybe in one or two benches you want to cherry pick. besides merrifield is going to have rogue gpu in it so that undercuts your argument. and its being priced less than the s600 despite having a better gpu, much much better cpu and lower power.


"AMD comes up so often because others a lot like you are obsessed with them. I strongly suspect it's due to AMD beating Intel in the past with far less resources, and how that doesn't fit your world view."

I've been an investor and a short seller of amd shares for years. the havent beaten intel in anything other than screwing up more.

" Now you are you seeing the reality of the situation - that is Intel is not competitive vs companies their own size. Yes the chips themselves are reasonably competitive vs older 28nm ARM chips, but they can't compete on price. If you can't compete on price, you can't compete.[/QUOTE]"

can't compete on price debunked already. straw man.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
A 102mm2 chip has ~586 die candidates per wafer. Even at 100% yield, at $9 a chip that means Intel is getting $5275 per wafer. Simply put, this pricing is not sustainable.

sure it is. there costs are a lot lower than that. i dont see how this is unsustainable. lookup the concept of incremental margin.
 

Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
1,251
321
136
Simply put, this pricing is not sustainable.

Based on?

I'll completely agree that it likely isn't sustainable by itself - if this were Intel's only product they'd have to change their business model obviously. But it's not. We know that Intel is making some amount of profit on Baytrail at whatever pricing they do offer for antitrust reasons. And then industry comparisons suggest that they'd still be making decent margins at least.

I can definitely understand the disbelief though given that Intel has been laser focused upon maintaining high margins for over a decade now. But all indications are that that has changed... which makes them an extremely dangerous competitor because for the time being they most definitely do have their traditional high-margin business to keep everything running smoothly as they flood the mobile market.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
Yeap, two years later and Intel still loose to Trinity's iGPU in the same price point. What a turd

AMD's stock price is down over 50% from 2012's trinity hype. it was a disaster just as bulldozer was a disaster. i dont even know why this is a subject to debate. I hope AMD does well personally but lets call a spade a spade.
 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
interesting qualifier. how do you define decently specced as I'm sure its a moving target with you. BT-T has lpddr3, and emcc, which are superior to what ure getting in other tablets. high res screens galore. lenovo is claiming they are going to deliver the world's thinnest tablet before the end of the year. battery life looks really good from the snippets ive gathered. What else do you want? I'm sure if intel delivered it you'd find another reason to knock them down.
How about some design wins that are likely to help Intel penetrate to even 10% of the market?

power is definitely not comparable against vanilla arm cores. CPU is definitely superior.
And you have the independent benchmarks to prove it obviously.

graphics on the other hand are definitely not 2x better than baytrail.
I was being lazy. It'll be closer to 3x in most cases.

maybe in one or two benches you want to cherry pick. besides merrifield is going to have rogue gpu in it so that undercuts your argument. and its being priced less than the s600 despite having a better gpu, much much better cpu and lower power.
The OEM's must be falling over themselves to get first dibs on these incredibly cheap wonder chips. I have no doubt that Intel will be the only tablet player by the end of this year.

I've been an investor and a short seller of amd shares for years. the havent beaten intel in anything other than screwing up more.
I hope you're still short selling AMD. Tagging.

can't compete on price debunked already. straw man.
Debunking requires some kind of evidence instead of wishful thinking. Intel is already losing a crapload of cash on older 32nm Atoms that they are getting more than $10 for. I can't wait to see the state of their Other Intel Architecture finances if 22nm Bay Trails are selling for $9 like you think they are.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
wont waste time responding to any of your points other than being short amd.

This is a FANTASTIC microcosm in how you direct your arguments. By cherry picking whatever makes your argument work and stating it as fact. The stock is up 65% YTD which is great if someone stepped in to buy the stock sub 2. I covered the pos (sub 2) after having shorted it at 8 dollars. even if i hadnt covered, the stock would still be over 50% below its highs from last year when it was pumping trinity/bulldozer. This is while the market has been ripping for the past 2 years. The company initiated a sale-leasebacking of its facilities in texas and singapore. why? Is it because they're doing such amazing damage to intel or is it because they are burdened with a ton of debt and need to hustle for cash to keep the lights on. i think its pretty obvious.
 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
Based on?

I'll completely agree that it likely isn't sustainable by itself - if this were Intel's only product they'd have to change their business model obviously. But it's not. We know that Intel is making some amount of profit on Baytrail at whatever pricing they do offer for antitrust reasons. And then industry comparisons suggest that they'd still be making decent margins at least.

I can definitely understand the disbelief though given that Intel has been laser focused upon maintaining high margins for over a decade now. But all indications are that that has changed... which makes them an extremely dangerous competitor because for the time being they most definitely do have their traditional high-margin business to keep everything running smoothly as they flood the mobile market.

We'll see if they lower their guidance on margins this Q3 or not.

At best Intel can drag the rest down with them, but Qualcomm won't even flinch as most of their cash is from licensing anyway. To be frank, they appear to have the high end sewn up and Bay Trail isn't even getting a look in. As for Apple, they have so much cash in reserve that they can't be beaten on this kind of tactic either.

Whatever happens next it's sure to be good news for the consumer, but I seriously doubt that fighting it out in the bargain basement is what Intel was expecting for Bay Trail.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,362
136
wont waste time responding to any of your points other than being short amd.

This is a FANTASTIC microcosm in how you direct your arguments. By cherry picking whatever makes your argument work and stating it as fact. The stock is up 65% YTD which is great if someone stepped in to buy the stock sub 2. I covered the pos (sub 2) after having shorted it at 8 dollars. even if i hadnt covered, the stock would still be over 50% below its highs from last year when it was pumping trinity/bulldozer. This is while the market has been ripping for the past 2 years. The company initiated a sale-leasebacking of its facilities in texas and singapore. why? Is it because they're doing such amazing damage to intel or is it because they are burdened with a ton of debt and need to hustle for cash to keep the lights on. i think its pretty obvious.


AMD's stock price is down over 50% from 2012's trinity hype. it was a disaster just as bulldozer was a disaster. i dont even know why this is a subject to debate. I hope AMD does well personally but lets call a spade a spade.

Here is the CPU and Overclocking Forum, we are talking about products, this is not wall street.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
We'll see if they lower their guidance on margins this Q3 or not.

At best Intel can drag the rest down with them, but Qualcomm won't even flinch as most of their cash is from licensing anyway. To be frank, they appear to have the high end sewn up and Bay Trail isn't even getting a look in. As for Apple, they have so much cash in reserve that they can't be beaten on this kind of tactic either.

Whatever happens next it's sure to be good news for the consumer, but I seriously doubt that fighting it out in the bargain basement is what Intel was expecting for Bay Trail.

yah for once i agree with you. qualcomm is likely going to survive as a thriving entity based on their QTL business. Unfortunately the same cant be said of TSM and ARM that depend - in a big way - on intel not becoming successful in this market.
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
1,143
136
I was being lazy. It'll be closer to 3x in most cases.

Reality check:
BT-T has slightly better than S600 graphics performance (based on previews, could have improved a bit by now with newer drivers), S800/Tegra 4 barely offer 50-60% better performance... which is a very respectable advantage but quite far from your 3x faster than BT-T wishful thinking.



 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
I thought we were talking about Bay Trail vs the A6 Kabini's in craptops regarding that point, apologies if I got that mixed up.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
It must get you to the nerves that a two year old Trinity is still faster than Haswell HD4600. :whiste:

I really don't care about trinity. I'm happily waiting for 290x reviews to see if i need to upgrade so i can play games at 1440p at 60fps. I'm also getting a ps4. More money to go to AMD which as I've said hope survives all of this.

Even if i did care about trinity - where are the trinity tablets.:sneaky:
 

Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
1,251
321
136

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,834
4,788
136
I thought OEMs were asking for the $10 price which indicated Intel was asking ~$15 for lowest model and somewhere between $20-$30 for the top end -Ts.

At thoses prices the BT is litteraly subsided by the SB/IB/HW line.

A 100mm2 Finfet based chip cost will reach the 20$ line
only in Q1 2014 , that is two years after 22nm was implemented.

Using this process wasnt only for performances but also
to speed up amortizations of previous capex that are
hardly reaching their target given the shrinking markets
during theses two years.
 

monstercameron

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2013
3,818
1
0
The Iris 5100 that goes into the 28W SKUs seems to be quite competitive with Trinity's top Radeon HD 7660G in actual game benchmarks. And peak power consumption appears similar for both in the 40-45W range.

Iris 5100 - http://www.notebookcheck.net/Intel-Iris-Graphics-5100.91977.0.html
Radeon HD 7660G - http://www.notebookcheck.net/AMD-Radeon-HD-7660G.69830.0.html

this is true and the cpu perf is very good on Intels side, so the cpu wont be bottlenecking to much. Also you have to take into consideration Richland, a10-5750m with higher cpu /gpu clocks and slightly better power usage..
http://www.anandtech.com/show/7106/...t-1-the-apu-and-radeon-hd-8650g-performance/2
 
Last edited:
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
AMD's stock price is down over 50% from 2012's trinity hype. it was a disaster just as bulldozer was a disaster. i dont even know why this is a subject to debate. I hope AMD does well personally but lets call a spade a spade.

AMD is very good at making up great hype each and every time. Buy the shares when people scream "bankruptcy" and sell them when people are thinking that AMD will take-down Intel ("HSA", anybody?).

That being said, I do think they are on the cusp of share gains in GPU, whatever that's worth for them.
 
Last edited:
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
A 102mm2 chip has ~586 die candidates per wafer. Even at 100% yield, at $9 a chip that means Intel is getting $5275 per wafer. Simply put, this pricing is not sustainable.

Can't really draw any conclusions unless you know Intel's wafer cost. At $3000, that's 43% GM.

My guess is that only the die-harvested rejects sell for $10 (i.e. "dual cores"). The quaddies are probably in the $15-$20 range.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,834
4,788
136
Can't really draw any conclusions unless you know Intel's wafer cost. At $3000, that's 43% GM.

My guess is that only the die-harvested rejects sell for $10 (i.e. "dual cores"). The quaddies are probably in the $15-$20 range.

At thoses prices the BT is litteraly subsided by the SB/IB/HW line.

A 100mm2 Finfet based chip cost will reach the 20$ line
only in Q1 2014 , that is two years after 22nm was implemented.

Using this process wasnt only for performances but also
to speed up amortizations of previous capex that are
hardly reaching their target given the shrinking markets
during theses two years.

.....
 
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