The Trump Tariffs thread

[Heartbreaker]

Yea, I really am not buying it. Putin has shrugged at Finland joining NATO. The Baltics and Poland have been in for decades now.

Russian imperial expansion never really dies. It just goes into hibernation periodically.

I've seen detailed analysis from a military historians about how critically Russia views Georgia and Ukraine. Some of it was before Russia went anywhere near Ukraine.

IMO, this is by far the leading contender for a precipitating event.

While it might have been unpalatable to many, it seems it would have been wiser to maintain Georgia and Ukraine as some kind of neutral zone.

Or if they took Russia seriously when they asked to join NATO:

Ex-Nato head says Putin wanted to join alliance early on in his rule

George Robertson recalls Russian president did not want to wait in line with ‘countries that don’t matter’

www.theguardian.com

 

[K1052]

I've seen detailed analysis from a military historians about how critically Russia views Georgia and Ukraine. Some of it was before Russia went anywhere near Ukraine.

IMO, this is by far the leading contender for a precipitating event.

While it might have been unpalatable to many, it seems it would have been wiser to maintain Georgia and Ukraine as some kind of neutral zone.

Or if they took Russia seriously when they asked to join NATO:

Ex-Nato head says Putin wanted to join alliance early on in his rule

George Robertson recalls Russian president did not want to wait in line with ‘countries that don’t matter’

www.theguardian.com

NATO is a problem to him insofar as his territorial ambitions are concerned. Nothing more.

 

[brycejones]

I've seen detailed analysis from a military historians about how critically Russia views Georgia and Ukraine. Some of it was before Russia went anywhere near Ukraine.

IMO, this is by far the leading contender for a precipitating event.

While it might have been unpalatable to many, it seems it would have been wiser to maintain Georgia and Ukraine as some kind of neutral zone.

Or if they took Russia seriously when they asked to join NATO:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ed-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule[/URL

"Great power spheres of influence" can get fucked. You're either for countries determining their futures and who they ally with or you're not.[/url]

 

[Heartbreaker]

"Great power spheres of influence" can get fucked. You're either for countries determining their futures and who they ally with or you're not.[/url]

You can live that idealistic fantasy, which we did, and have Ukraine now largely destroyed (with hundreds of thousands of casualties), or you live in the real world which is much less black and white, where Ukraine was some kind of neutral territory, and not destroyed, and no casualties. I think the latter would have been much more preferable.

 

[brycejones]

You can live that idealistic fantasy, which we did, and have Ukraine now utterly obliterated, or you live in the real world which is much less black and white, where Ukraine was some kind of neutral territory, and not destroyed. I think the latter would have been much more preferable.

The Ukrainian people made their choice for freedom we should support that instead of arguing they would be better off as serfs in a kleptocracy beholden to Russia which is the path they rejected.

I find your willingness to entertain appeasement gross. It never ends well.

 

[Indus]

You can live that idealistic fantasy, which we did, and have Ukraine now largely destroyed (with hundreds of thousands of casualties), or you live in the real world which is much less black and white, where Ukraine was some kind of neutral territory, and not destroyed, and no casualties. I think the latter would have been much more preferable.

Do you think Russia would honor any agreements??

Especially given their past track record??

FFS we can't even honor our agreements.. do you think the US will defend Taiwan?? If so I have a bridge to Hawaii I want to sell you!

 

[outriding]

@K1052

So this is how you get Trump to STFU and leave..

Yesterday:

Mark Carney Brutally Shuts Trump Down for Whining on Russia’s Behalf

Donald Trump kicked off the G7 meeting by shilling for Russia.

www.yahoo.com

Today:

Trump abruptly leaves G7 summit after signaling deepening Iran-Israel conflict

The change of plans added to the sense of uncertainty around the military operation in Iran.

www.yahoo.com

Basically you have to push the press away since he loves press attention and he turns into "I'm taking my ball and going home"

Well done PM Carney.. I think it'll be copied by others sure enough!

Mark deserves the noble peace prize

 

[FelixDeCat]

Mark deserves the noble peace prize

There is nothing noble about it.

 

[Heartbreaker]

The Ukrainian people made their choice for freedom we should support that instead of arguing they would be better off as serfs in a kleptocracy beholden to Russia which is the path they rejected.

I find your willingness to entertain appeasement gross. It never ends well.

If appeasement simply means not offering NATO membership to Ukraine, that's a far better outcome than what is happening.

But what's hundred of thousands of dead people if you get to keep your idealism intact, from your comfy chair thousands of miles away?

Do you really think the war will lead to a better outcome?

 

[brycejones]

If appeasement simply means not offering NATO membership to Ukraine, that's a far better outcome than what is happening.

But what's hundred of thousands of dead people if you get to keep your idealism intact, from your comfy chair thousands of miles away?

Do you really think the war will lead to a better outcome?

The Ukrainian people clearly think it will. Weird how you keep ignoring what the fuck they want.

 

[Jaskalas]

Or if they took Russia seriously when they asked to join NATO:

If that !@#$er respected life, and had the intelligence to play the long game. He could have signaled for Ukraine to peacefully exit Russia's control. Ukraine could have joined EU and NATO. A decade or so later, Russia proper could have been next in line.

That is a timeline we will never see now. Not in a lifetime will there be peace and friendship with Russia. Not after Vlad the Butcher's campaign of Genocide across the continent.

 

[Heartbreaker]

The Ukrainian people clearly think it will. Weird how you keep ignoring what the fuck they want.

The Ukrainian people were pawns in this situation. It was essentially power politics of the USA, playing chicken with Russia.

 

[brycejones]

The Ukrainian people were pawns in this situation. It was essentially power politics of the USA, playing chicken with Russia.

You have made an assertion now back it up with evidence and not conspiracy theories.

 

[nakedfrog]

Might be a better discussion to continue in this thread about Russia/Ukraine than the Trump tariff thread, but I'm not the boss of youse (and I have obviously been guilty of the same sort of thing)

 

[FelixDeCat]

The Ukrainian people were pawns in this situation. It was essentially power politics of the USA, playing chicken with Russia.

It wasn't the USA but the West in general. The arrogance to even entertain the idea of allowing Ukraine to join Nato was wild.

Granted that bastard Putin had been grabbing land for at least a decade so the fear was real.

Russia has a thing for dictatorship so I doubt even the eventual death of Putin will change much.

Just like when we tried to establish democracy in Afghanistan when they preferred theocracy. Indeed, the cheap puppet state the West established fell quickly.

 

[RnR_au]

The arrogance to even entertain the idea of allowing Ukraine to join Nato was wild.

Why? If Finland joining NATO didn't matter, why does Ukraine joining NATO matter?

In 2014, it became clear to Ukraine that a neutral status didn't matter to Russia. It would still take the parts that it wants;

In 2010, during the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian parliament voted to abandon the goal of NATO membership and re-affirm Ukraine's neutral status, while continuing its co-operation with NATO.[3] In the February 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Ukraine's parliament voted to remove Yanukovych, but the new government did not seek to change its neutral status.[4][5][6] Russia then occupied and annexed Crimea, and in August 2014 Russia's military invaded eastern Ukraine to support its separatist proxies. Because of this, in December 2014 Ukraine's parliament voted to end its neutral status,[7] and in 2018 it voted to enshrine the goal of NATO membership in the Constitution.

Source

 

[FelixDeCat]

Why? If Finland joining NATO didn't matter, why does Ukraine joining NATO matter?

In 2014, it became clear to Ukraine that a neutral status didn't matter to Russia. It would still take the parts that it wants;


Source

Ukraine was never allowed to join. That would make Russia vulnerable to invasion from their perspective. It would comparable to Russia putting nukes in Cuba.

 

[RnR_au]

Ukraine was never allowed to join. That would make Russia vulnerable to invasion from their perspective. It would comparable to Russia putting nukes in Cuba.

Their 'perspective' is a load of bunk. Its just one more 'Russian narrative' used by Russian apologists that makes it sound like... 'oh please give us some more land on the European Plain so we can sleep better - you Europeans with your nice coffee and fancy croissants are so dangerous'.

The Russian establishment know full well that modern day Europe wants nothing in Russia. After all the Russian establishment educates their kids there and even live there more often than not.

Anyways offtopic

 

[Heartbreaker]

You have made an assertion now back it up with evidence and not conspiracy theories.

I don't have a the link handy but a historian described the situation when Bush made his statement, that it was mainly the USA sticking it to Russia, as they viewed them as too weak to do anything about it, but he predicted it would lead to a disaster in Ukraine with Russia invading them. This was years before Russia's move on the Crimea.

We want to live in an ideal world, where everyone gets what they want, and no one uses force.

But we don't live in that world. We have to choose the lesser of evils.

IMO, the lesser evil would have been negotiating some kind of neutral status for Ukraine, before Russia invaded and inflicted extreme death, destruction, and misery on Ukraine, instead of after...

 

[outriding]

Ukraine was never allowed to join. That would make Russia vulnerable to invasion from their perspective. It would comparable to Russia putting nukes in Cuba.

That is just so fucking stupid…

Oh we will take over Ukraine because we don’t want a nato nation next to us

If they took over Ukraine that would put a nato nation right on their border

Seriously get a fucking clue one of these days

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

IMO, the lesser evil would have been negotiating some kind of neutral status for Ukraine, before Russia invaded and inflicted extreme death, destruction, and misery on Ukraine, instead of after

That was already negotiated. Russia broke it. Ukraine should never agree to neutrality again, defensive alliance with other world powers, until Russia doesn't exist as a country, at minimum.

 

[brycejones]

IMO, the lesser evil would have been negotiating some kind of neutral status for Ukraine, before Russia invaded and inflicted extreme death, destruction, and misery on Ukraine, instead of after...

That was the agreement that Russia broke in 2014. Would you care to try again? In fact Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and delivery systems to secure such an agreement.

Again though you also seem to completely ignore the desires of the Ukrainians people.

 

[FelixDeCat]

That is just so fucking stupid…

Oh we will take over Ukraine because we don’t want a nato nation next to us

If they took over Ukraine that would put a nato nation right on their border

Seriously get a fucking clue one of these days

Uneducated opinion. Gtfo.

 

[FelixDeCat]

That was already negotiated. Russia broke it. Ukraine should never agree to neutrality again, defensive alliance with other world powers, until Russia doesn't exist as a country, at minimum.

Hell no. Russia will irradiate the planet before they let that happen.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Hell no. Russia will irradiate the planet before they let that happen.

So call their bluff, let them. I'd rather this shit show be over with than live under a phantom gun from a fascist.