There are 59 days to Pass /.

[Train]

OK, here is my 4th and final formula, this one is pretty accurate. Not only did i figure in the rate of growth, but i figured into that the rate of decrease in our rate of growth. Our growth rate over the past 7 days averages 2.62% and that shrinks by about 1.3% a day, so running it through the code again we get 58 days

<%

' Dim Variables
Dim intCount
Dim intBlocksToPass
Dim intLatestDelta
Dim fltAverageDeltaPrime

' Initialize Values
intCount = 0
intBlocksToPass = 88725462 'Use latest amount
intLatestDelta = 804743 'Now using 7 day average for intitial value
fltAverageDeltaPrime = 0.0262 'Average % increase in Delta (i went back 7 days this time)
fltDoublePrimeDelta = -0.013 ' Average % increase/decrease in the daily growth rate

' Do Calculation
While intBlocksToPass > 0
intBlocksToPass = intBlocksToPass - intLatestDelta
intLatestDelta = intLatestDelta * (fltAverageDeltaPrime + 1)
fltAverageDeltaPrime = fltAverageDeltaPrime * (1 + fltDoublePrimeDelta) 'figure in % avg decrease in the rate of increase
intCount = intCount + 1
wend

' Output results
Response.Write &quot; There are &quot; &amp; intCount &amp; &quot; days to Pass /.&quot;

%>

I saved this text as rc5.asp, then put it in my C:\inetpub\wwwroot\ directory (you must have IIS installed on NT or Win2k) then pointed my browser to http://localhost/rc5.asp to see the output. (If you have win9x, you must install PWS from the windows CD, then put the file in C:\wwwroot\)

How my Algorithm Works:
I averaged our rate of change for the last 7 days and came up with a 2.62% increase each day. But that amount decreases by about 1.3% each day. I then subtracted the latest amount, then subtracted that amount + (2% * 1.3%), and so on until the blocks to pass was 0 (or less)

 

[ZapZilla]

Hot dang! Lets keep assimilating to keep that growth rate going!

 

[Xede]

For the most accurate estimate of how long til we pass them, you should take a full seven days into account for your calculations no matter how you set them up--otherwise, they may be skewed by the weekends and then any surge on Monday.

I think the most reliable way to accurately gauge the # of days is as follows:

TAsum = sum of TA's daily block totals from past 7 days

Slashsum = sum of /.'s daily block totals from past 7 days

AvgDailyGain = (TAsum - Slashsum) / 7

TheDifference = /.'s overall block count minus TA's overall block count

NumDaysToPass = TheDifference / AvgDailyGain

You could also use 14 days rather than 7.

I think that's the most straightforward way to do it... Anything else you come up with just depends on how much you believe that current trends will continue into the future, which is much harder to do with any accuracy, and will produce much more widely varying results.

 

[lordugh]

whatever the answer is it cant be long, monday and tuesday we did over a million blocks more than /. i figure 80 - 100 days or about 3 months assuming we continue pulling a million more than them everydays.

We should be proud of our keyrate. It is phenominal, the only other group that every had this mush was UCG, hopefully we dont end up like them [we wont!]

 

[Train]

bumpity bump bump ^

 

[Feisters]

Team AnandTech RC5! Kickin' ass and takin' names! Mooooooooooooooooo!

 

[dawks]

Haha! Go TA! Awsome.

 

[Train]

^^