OK, here is my 4th and final formula, this one is pretty accurate. Not only did i figure in the rate of growth, but i figured into that the rate of decrease in our rate of growth. Our growth rate over the past 7 days averages 2.62% and that shrinks by about 1.3% a day, so running it through the code again we get 58 days
<%
' Dim Variables
Dim intCount
Dim intBlocksToPass
Dim intLatestDelta
Dim fltAverageDeltaPrime
' Initialize Values
intCount = 0
intBlocksToPass = 88725462 'Use latest amount
intLatestDelta = 804743 'Now using 7 day average for intitial value
fltAverageDeltaPrime = 0.0262 'Average % increase in Delta (i went back 7 days this time)
fltDoublePrimeDelta = -0.013 ' Average % increase/decrease in the daily growth rate
' Do Calculation
While intBlocksToPass > 0
intBlocksToPass = intBlocksToPass - intLatestDelta
intLatestDelta = intLatestDelta * (fltAverageDeltaPrime + 1)
fltAverageDeltaPrime = fltAverageDeltaPrime * (1 + fltDoublePrimeDelta) 'figure in % avg decrease in the rate of increase
intCount = intCount + 1
wend
' Output results
Response.Write " There are " & intCount & " days to Pass /."
%>
I saved this text as rc5.asp, then put it in my C:\inetpub\wwwroot\ directory (you must have IIS installed on NT or Win2k) then pointed my browser to http://localhost/rc5.asp to see the output. (If you have win9x, you must install PWS from the windows CD, then put the file in C:\wwwroot\)
How my Algorithm Works:
I averaged our rate of change for the last 7 days and came up with a 2.62% increase each day. But that amount decreases by about 1.3% each day. I then subtracted the latest amount, then subtracted that amount + (2% * 1.3%), and so on until the blocks to pass was 0 (or less)
<%
' Dim Variables
Dim intCount
Dim intBlocksToPass
Dim intLatestDelta
Dim fltAverageDeltaPrime
' Initialize Values
intCount = 0
intBlocksToPass = 88725462 'Use latest amount
intLatestDelta = 804743 'Now using 7 day average for intitial value
fltAverageDeltaPrime = 0.0262 'Average % increase in Delta (i went back 7 days this time)
fltDoublePrimeDelta = -0.013 ' Average % increase/decrease in the daily growth rate
' Do Calculation
While intBlocksToPass > 0
intBlocksToPass = intBlocksToPass - intLatestDelta
intLatestDelta = intLatestDelta * (fltAverageDeltaPrime + 1)
fltAverageDeltaPrime = fltAverageDeltaPrime * (1 + fltDoublePrimeDelta) 'figure in % avg decrease in the rate of increase
intCount = intCount + 1
wend
' Output results
Response.Write " There are " & intCount & " days to Pass /."
%>
I saved this text as rc5.asp, then put it in my C:\inetpub\wwwroot\ directory (you must have IIS installed on NT or Win2k) then pointed my browser to http://localhost/rc5.asp to see the output. (If you have win9x, you must install PWS from the windows CD, then put the file in C:\wwwroot\)
How my Algorithm Works:
I averaged our rate of change for the last 7 days and came up with a 2.62% increase each day. But that amount decreases by about 1.3% each day. I then subtracted the latest amount, then subtracted that amount + (2% * 1.3%), and so on until the blocks to pass was 0 (or less)